Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121019806#Comment_121019806

"Brexit means Brexit" was a statement that was at the time, and is now, striking it its utter meaninglessness. I wouldn't be calling it in aid in support of any argument, Francie; doing so will almost certainly create the oppose impression to the one you intend.

Rumboflange means rumboflange! Prove me wrong!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121019862#Comment_121019862

eh?

May elaborated on what it meant:

"There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it by the back door, and no second referendum.

The country voted to leave the European Union, and as prime minister I will make sure that we leave the European Union."

In the context of listening to that rhetoric at the time, was what I was referring to. 'Brexit means Brexit' was a slogan, but she clarified what it meant.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121019402#Comment_121019402

It might suit them, but what is the point of it as they have no stores in the ROI so what purpose does it serve?

If I was a NI meat producer then I would not want my EU compliant product aggregated with non EU compliant products. ASDA are discrediting the local product without reason by impyling that it should not in the EU when it does mean the requirements. The local NI product has a competitive advantage and ASDA are deliberately sabotaging that. It is a form of consumer misrepresentation.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121020393#Comment_121020393

I think the point is right about it being the easiest (and cheapest) thing for ASDA to do is to slap a "Not for EU" label on all of their products. This way, if they decide to change their supplier to an English one, they won't have to change any label.

As you say it might seem to suggest that NI meat is not fit for consumption in the EU, which would be incorrect, but I doubt ASDA give a damn about how NI meat producers feel, or about the impression that their label is creating. That's if they have thought about it at all, which I doubt they have.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121020744#Comment_121020744

Subsequent reading suggests that, although the animals were born, raised and slaughtered in NI, some of the meat was sent to England for packing, because of a lack of meat-packing capacity in NI. On being reimported to NI it has to be labelled "not for EU", because God knows what kind of depravities are practised in English meat-packing plants.

This doesn't bother Asda, because they have no distribution or supply chains that go from NI into IRL — they don't want to import the meat into IRL. It might bother other supermarket chains that operate on both sides of the border. If so, they could explore sending the meat to IRL rather than GB for packing; the labelling problem wouldn't arise them.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121019895#Comment_121019895

Honestly, that's not much of an elaboration. It tells us that the UK will cease to be a member state of the EU but, let's face it, we knew that already. Then it says that there'll be no second referendum and no attempt to rejoin by the back door (which I take to mean, no attempt to rejoin without a referendum). Well, duh.

"Brexit means Brexit" tells us nothing at all about what relationship the UK will have with the EU, only that it won't have a relationship of membership. I thought at the time, and still think, that May adopted it to placate the right wing of her party and buy her time to work out what kind of relationship the UK would aim to have. For that reason, the slogan sounded hardline but was deliberately void of content. Full of fire and brimstone, signifying nothing.

It's flat-out wrong to say that "Brexit means Brexit", coupled with the no-hard-border guarantee, mean that NI would have a special status that separated it from GB. May herself, the author of the slogan, worked hard to negotiate a Brexit that didn't involve that. Presumably she thought her Brexit was Brexit, and it certainly ticked all the boxes in her not very elaborate elaboration — it involved no attempt to remain inside the EU, no attempt to rejoin, and no second referendum.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023611#Comment_121023611

What is it you are saying Pere?

The point I made was that initially FG did not support Special Status(for whatever reason) for NI and other parties spent time calling on them to look for that. They eventually cam to that conclusion and the approach of Ireland's political class was then cohesive and effective in the face of the direct opposite in GB.

Peregrinus

The approach of Ireland's political class was cohesive from very early on. The common object was not to secure special status for NI, but to avoid a hard border between NI and IRL. While special status for NI is the way that was eventually achieved, that was quite a late development; for most of the Brexit period IRL's (and EU's) preference was to avoid a hard border via UK-wide measures, and the WA negotiated and signed with May was oriented in that direction.

Remember, for most of the Brexit negotiation period the UK had no clear Brexit policy. The Tories could not make up their minds about the choices required; for much of the time they were in denial about the fact that choices were required at all. May negotiated a WA which was put to parliament and rejected in January 2019. Only then was there a debate in parliament about what form of Brexit the UK did want, but it was inconclusive; all forms of Brexit voted on by the Commons in a series of "indicative votes" in March and April 2019 were rejected. This was followed by talks between the Tories and Labour to try to reach bipartisan agreement; these broke down in May 2019. May then announced that she would resign as PM. The Tories embarked on a two-month process to choose a new leader. This, remember, is almost three years after the referendum. Fun times!

All this time there has been a united position in Ireland: no hard border. But the hope was to achieve this in the context of a soft Brexit for the UK. This wasn't an unreasonable hope because, as just pointed out, the UK still hadn't chosen hard Brexit. For a variety of reasons, this would have been the optimal outcome both for IRL and for NI, so the Irish were right not to abandon this aspiration so long as there was any hope of achieving it.

Johnson is elected at the end of July. That substantially ups the likelihood of a harder rather than a softer Brexit; Johnson is known to favour hard Brexit, though his parliamentary party does not. After wasting more time with the illegal prorogation of Parliament and ensuing litigation, and other attempts to enable him to force through a hard Brexit without his party's support, Johnson writes to the EU in September 2019 suggesting the outlines of what became the NI Protocol. Varadkar meets him in October and they agree a slightly fleshed-out version which Ireland will support.

I think this is a fall-back position for Ireland. We would have preferred a soft Brexit with no requirement for a hard border either between IRL and NI or between NI and GB, but with Johnson as PM it is no longer reasonable to think that that is a likely outcome. Given that there's going to be a hard Brexit, special treatment for NI is the best way of avoiding an IRL:NI border.

What changed was not FG's view of the merits of special treatment for NI; it was FG's view of the likelihood of hard Brexit. At any point in the process, if you said there was going to be a hard Brexit then FG would have said that special treatment for NI was the way to go in that situation. It pretty much says that in the Joint Declaration of December 2017.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023892#Comment_121023892

What changed was not FG's view of the merits of special treatment for NI

This is the point where I disagree.

I don't know where you live but here on the border we paid very close attention from the start and many calls imploring the FG local reps and government to look for Special Status for NI were made at various meetings.

They were not initially convinced that this was the way forward, maybe that was because they didn't think the British were foolish enough to hurt themselves the way they did but they didn't intend at that time to call for Special Status or work towards it.

Those calls manifested themselves at the bigger conferences I linked to earlier. They wouldn't have been made if there was no resistance to the idea from government.

Thankfully they were convinced and took the appropriate stance.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023925#Comment_121023925

I don't think they were responding to your calls; they were responding to the growing likelihood of hard Brexit.

I'm not, obviously, casting any aspirations at your friends and neighbours on the border. But, in general, why would someone call for special treatment for NI in the context of Brexit? There are a couple of possible reasons:

1. They judge that hard Brexit is likely or even inevitable.
2. They want special status for other reasons — e.g. they think it will tend to separate NI and GB, which they regard as a good thing. Or they expect it to destabilise the GFA, which they dislike. Or there could be other effects of special status that they desire.
3. They dislike Brexit, and they want NI to have the softest possible Brexit, even if special status might destabilise the politics of NI or undermine the working of the GFA (as has, in fact, happened). Unlike in case 2, they don't want to destabilise the GFA, but it's a risk they are prepared to run in order to get a softer Brexit. They may have judged at the time that it was a small risk.

None of these are easy calls to make. The first depends on the assessment of how likely hard Brexit was, a matter about which reasonable people could differ, given that it was a decision for the UK and they seemed wholly incapable of making a decision. The others require a fair degree of tea-leaf reading about how exactly special status would play out and how people would react to it.

But I don't think there were two camps, one favouring special status and one opposed to it. I think there was always a shared understanding that, if there was going to be a hard Brexit, then special status for NI was needed. People might differ in their assessment of whether there would be a hard Brexit, plus FG had the additional constraint that, as the party in government in Ireland, they had to be wary of being seen to assert or assume that there would be a hard Brexit. (In the same way, they never disclosed their planning for what IRL would do in the event of a no-deal Brexit (and they did have plans for that). No-deal Brexit was a possibility, but it was very much not in our interest and we didn't want to do or say anything that made it look feasible.)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024040#Comment_121024040

We can debate motivations all day long.

But I don't think there were two camps, 

The links to those conferences I posted early, very much show that for a time, there were two camps. Those who saw the immediate need to start working towards Special Status and those who, for whatever reason, needed to be convinced.

If you are talking about 'motivations' then one of them here was the fear that FG would be traditionally soft and weak on protecting NI's interests.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024040#Comment_121024040

There was nobody ever opposed to special status. There were those, including the Irish government, who viewed it correctly as a lesser option. Something to settle for, but not to advocate or rush to support.

The Irish government showed real leadership in seeking a soft Brexit which was the best outcome for all people on this island and on the neighbouring island. That they got Teresa May to see that was an astonishing triumph of diplomacy, that she failed to get it through was bad news for everyone on these islands.

The parties in Northern Ireland on both sides who sought lesser outcomes in either a hard Brexit with a border on this island, or special status from the start, are guilty of putting selfish political objectives ahead of the welfare of the people.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121026168#Comment_121026168

There was nobody ever opposed to special status. 

Yeh there was. Charlie Flanagan here was worried on behalf of other EU countries not Ireland and not because he wanted a soft Brexit.

Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan has warned against Ireland seeking "special status'' within the EU following Brexit.

He said such concepts and terms would give rise to serious concerns for other EU partners about precedents that might be set elsewhere.

Charlie Flanagan cautions on seeking Brexit ‘special status’ in EU – The Irish Times

Enda Kenny had insisted that the British would not agree to it so he wouldn't seek it (Traditional FG meekness) and that is why other parties were demanding that we did seek it.

FG didn't hold out long on the policy but they were certainly not in favour of it initially. They thought foolishly they could persuade the British and in the end got on board with everyone else and used Special Status to force a soft Brexit. Partition came back to bite the hard Brexiters such as the DUP and Tory's in the ass, as we know.

Everybody here also wanted a soft Brexit and got it, with Special Status. BTW

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023606#Comment_121023606

The labelling says "Cut in UK(NI)" so does this suggest that it was cut in NI and sent to GB to be put on polystyrene trays?

The basic point is that the labelling is contradictory, if it went to GB then the health labelling does not indicate this, which is not ideal either.

Labelling should inform people, ASDA see to be using it to make a political point.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121030591#Comment_121030591

Never ascribe to a conspiracy theory that which doesn't require a conspiracy theory to account for it. It makes you look paranoid.

Plus, all conspiracy theories should be run through a plausibility filter. Why would ASDA wish to use its labelling to "make a political point"? What possible benefit could accrue to them from immersing themselves in the toxic politics of Brexit? They'd have to be mad. One of the striking features of the whole sorry saga of Brexit was the reluctance of major commercial and industrial interests in the UK to advocate for their own economic interests; they were afraid of political blowback. Why would that change now?

We do know that NI law will shortly require meat sold in the NI market which has been processed at any point in GB to be labelled "not for EU". The labelling requirement does not extend to saying when, how or at what point the process the meat was processed in GB.

According to the Farmer's Journal, Asda contracted with Anglo-Irish Beef Processors in Newry to pack this particular consignment. But AIBP Newry has limited capacity; they subcontracted some of the packing to a plant in GB; hence the labelling. This is the kind of supply chain complexity that is normal these days, but about which Brexit supporters have been in consistent denial.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121032465#Comment_121032465

Fine. My only observation is that there is a step here is not covered by the traceability labelling and so that needs to be augmented in the interests of clarity.

Seth Brundle

Intelligent words from Steve Baker in reply to Sammy Wilson...

https://twitter.com/GarethBurns18/status/1698846833936589278

FrancieBrady

Potentially very de-stabilising arranging secret deals with a minority. These talks should be out in the open and not hidden from view. What are the British at?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-66756599

Peregrinus

Surely this is the only way that anyone ever manages to make a deal with the DUP?

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121092095#Comment_121092095

Maybe it's behind closed doors so there's no chance of the public seeing the DUP grovelling - or indeed Westminster dressing down the party. If it's all in the backrooms then everyone can pretend it's a meeting of equals and friends, the DUP having the ear of government. As to the potential for movement, I'm gonna go ahead and presume it'll once again, come down to a promise of cold hard cash.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121097596#Comment_121097596

I also think they will quite likely grab at a bung again. I have no doubt they'll brazen out the climb down again too.

Sam Russell

I see Sammy Wilson thinks it is time to unwrap the EU myths again.

NI jam will have to be labelled marmalade because the EU insists that the word for jam in Europe is 'marmalada' which is of course not true.

When did the fact that something is untrue ever stop our wee Sammy?

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/brexit/sticky-situation-disbelief-at-eus-plan-to-rebrand-nis-jam-as-marmalade-in-brexit-reforms/a584813336.html

Edit:

For anyone interested in the truth:

https://www.fsai.ie/getmedia/c83ba371-d49b-4a64-93d0-6be141758ae8/jams_and_jellies.pdf?ext=.pdf

This is from the Food Safety Authority of Ireland who oversee such matters.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121112210#Comment_121112210

Sammy and Unionism has bigger things to worry about than jam.

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1702648676298989977

retalivity

Sammy looks like his head has been smeared in Marmalade Jam. Any word on getting back to work and doing something about the impending disaster in Lough Neagh? Nah screaming from the sidelines about Jam and invisible lines are more important.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121113305#Comment_121113305

The damage was probably done in Lough Neagh a decade ago. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP have held the portfolio responsible during the last twenty years. Is it a surprise that Lough Neagh is in a mess?

Neither party has separate environment from agriculture which are run by the same minister.

Absolutely shocking the way those two parties have run Northern Ireland for the last 20 years.

FrancieBrady

Surely this opinion could have been arrived at months ago?

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/no-way-to-meet-dups-demands-around-windsor-framework-states-government-sought-legal-advice/a1251493899.html

Peregrinus

When they say "the government has received" this advice, they mean it has been published on the web where the government, like anybody else, can read it. I suppose they may have put a copy in the post to the government as well, but this is not advice which the government has sought. Nor is it provided by an adviser the government has chosen.

When they say "independent legal advice", they mean a legal opinion commissioned and published by the Centre for the Union (Chairman: Ian Paisley MP; Director for Northern Ireland Policy: Jamie Bryson).

When they say "Centre for the Union" they mean a recently-established think-tank that claims to "protect our United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland" but that is staffed entirely by hard Brexit supporters and that never, ever, ever publishes anything that suggests that the goal of hard Brexit should be compromised in any way to avoid damaging or undermining that union.

Could this opinion have been arrived at months ago? Yes. In fact, it was arrived at months ago. The published opinion (by John Larkin KC) is dated 28 February 2023.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121128392#Comment_121128392

The story has moved on since the article was posted. Clicking into it now gets you this:

Downing Street has denied the Government has received legal advice suggesting that meeting the DUP’s demands around the Windsor Framework would require “fundamentally changing” the deal and cannot be done in domestic law.

FrancieBrady

Just because the Windsor Framework is the product of unionists standing together does not mean we are morally obliged to accept it.

At least he is owning the mess they have created.

Jeffrey Donaldson: The Windsor Framework does not go far enough to repair the damage to Northern Ireland and to restore Stormont. This is a time to hold our nerve (newsletter.co.uk)

zell12

There will be no prohibitions on shoppers from ROI taking goods home from Northern Ireland supermarkets

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-66937192

Shoppers from ROI can still take goods home from Northern Ireland but cannot resell them

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-66970085

How will they police potential reselling?