Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119956731#Comment_119956731

Take it up with Doyle. Believe what you want.

jh79

https://iicrr.ie/different-results-in-opinion-polls/

Is this what you are referring to? It's 4 months old and doesn't include the latest poll. One of his reasons for dismissing the Liverpool polls is below.

"Greater data is available on the 2019 Liverpool poll. Non-voters make up about one third of the sample. "

For the latest poll, non voters only represent 5% of the sample.

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

I'm going to post this on more than one thread, since the problem applies across the board. We've had an exponential increase in reported posts over the past week or two. That's mainly been down to a handful of posters bringing their long running animosity towards each other into this forum.

If you're going to post here further, please read the charter carefully. In particular, heed the following:

This forum is for discussion and debate and we will not tolerate soapboxing. If you are here to "shout everyone down" with your opinions, we will see you as a negative contributor to the forum and will take appropriate action. High standards of debate and quality posts / threads are required. Repeated one liner, low quality style posts will result in a ban. Threads (and posts) that are not based on serious and legitimate Political discussion will be deleted without warning.

Thread derailing will be treated particularly harshly. If there's more than a couple of examples of a poster taking an unrelated thread and turning it into a public-versus-private / unionists-versus-nationalists / us-versus-them contest, then expect a sanction. That just creates a partisan atmosphere in the forum and we expect posters to be civil and respectful to each other.

A general note of common sense advice is that if you get banned from one forum for a particular kind of conduct, there's a good likelihood that continuing that conduct in another forum is likely to yield the same results.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955245#Comment_119955245

Interesting analyses.

Looking at those figures, I note that support for a united Ireland (excluding don't knows) was above 40% four times in 2021, but only once in 2022, and then only hitting 41%.

It is far too early to call it, but the early polls in 2023 will be worth watching to see if this emerging slight downward trend in support for a united Ireland continues. It is possible that any increase in support for a united Ireland over the last half-decade was driven by fears among ordinary people of Northern Ireland that Brexit would damage their personal prospects. As Brexit settles down and the fears are eased, that support for a united Ireland is also easing.

Also worth noting that four of the five polls showing support for a united Ireland come from LucidTalk, the other being Lord Ashcroft polls which only hit 41%. Across the other six polling companies involved, the levels never went above 40%. Is it more likely that a single opinion poll company are overestimating support for a united Ireland than six polling companies are underestimating support for a united Ireland?

jh79

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1561679534528860165?t=5ubctEqYMGQMvOCfMAqr0w&s=19

I don't think the polls are the problem rather that the public are unsure on what they want ie the pro unity vote is extremely soft and fluid. The static nature of the unionist vote to me suggests that the polls are not flawed. The LucidTalk twitter account pointed out that the only way to know how good an opinion poll is , is to run the real deal. He/She said they have a particularly good record on previous votes.

I think it's pretty clear that unity would lose but any prediction on by how much would unreliable.

The pro-union vote is likely to be around 48%. The extra 3% should be easily obtainable based on the link above from LucidTalk. While their is a lot of error involved in that prediction, they have plenty of room at 65% of the unknowns.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119959508#Comment_119959508

I'm not sure why you are ignoring the impact of a White Paper and a (at least IMO) 2 year campaign.

It completely altered polling in the only reference point we have, the Scottish Independence Ref.

The Ref is not being held 'today' or 'tomorrow'.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119959586#Comment_119959586

To be fair Francie, the white paper is a complete unknown at the moment so therefore it's impact is an unknown. While it did help in Scotland's case, they still lost in the end. I never paid attention to it myself so wouldn't know much about what happened in Scotland.

But looking at the strength of the pro union vote in my opinion it's unlikely any white paper would change their minds significantly and the white paper is only likely to affect the amount unity loses by. Of course if circumstances change and a hard Brexit type scenario was to happen then unity might have a better chance.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960044#Comment_119960044

They only lost because they were lied to.

Second bit of your post is an opinion.

I say again, the reason people want a referendum is because they want to see what the plan/proposal is. Which is also an opinion.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960219#Comment_119960219

As per the charter i clearly stated which bits were my opinion, have a read of my post again.

I can't quantify an unknown so have to do the best with the available data. It is undeniable that the pro union vote is strong so i believe it is a reasonable opinion.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960289#Comment_119960289

The pro Union vote is decreasing and old predominantly.

The pro Union camp is not attracting the don’t knows over many polls, which again suggests they are waiting fora plan/ proposal given they know what the ‘Union’ looks like and means.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960310#Comment_119960310

Can you show data to support your claim that the pro union vote is decreasing? It's just that it's seems pretty static from what I posted earlier.

Are you just cheery picking a specific timeframe for your claim? If so, not really a fair reflection of the mood. If the protocol is sorted those high values for unity are not really worth considering in my opinion as they have an obvious cause.

Also can you show the data to support your claim that the pro union vote is not attracting the don't knows? The LucidTalk poll showed that the don't knows favoured the union at 65%.

jh79

https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/issues/unification/polls.html

Francie, don't think you can say it is still decreasing seems to have plateaued to me.

I think a few more polls are needed over a long timeframe to see if the demographic results affect the overall.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960489#Comment_119960489

The Unionist vote is decreasing, they are no longer a majority.

Just because somebody is not ready yet to vote for a UI does not mean they are ’pro’ the union. I mean Unionist when I say pro Union

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960646#Comment_119960646

You mean in the assembly? I wouldn't follow what happens in the assembly but i was under the impression that while SF share has increased, it's at the expense of the SDLP and total nationalist vote is still the minority. For the unionist i thought their total share was still the majority with just movement between the various parties.

Even if I am wrong on that, it isn't reflected in the border poll so not sure of the relevance?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960688#Comment_119960688

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/05/29/news/unionist-vote-continues-to-fall-as-middle-ground-emerges-1630093/

Nobody knows how soft some of that vote is, as moderate Unionists who might be persuaded have nothing to go on either.

I fear you and others are making assumptions about a poll that is not asking about support for the Union, but rather is asking, would you vote for a UI.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960889#Comment_119960889

"While unionism is losing in terms of representation it doesn't mean nationalism is winning," he said.

Not sure how the above supports your claims. Unionism as a group is still larger. The polls show remaining in the UK at a steady 48%. The pro unity vote is comparatively softer with only 54% of Catholics in favour with a sizeable unknown and a sizeable pro uk cohort while 78% of protestants are in favour of remaining in the UK.

As i posted earlier 65% of don't knows would vote to remain.

I think this is a hope of yours rather than something that is reflected in the polling currently.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961158#Comment_119961158

The findings of one poll being used again.

4 decades of a fall in the Unionist vote - denied and a spurious point about something I never claimed made.

I am always hopeful jh79.

We'll see how the next poll goes. Fe up talking about this one.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961183#Comment_119961183

You made a claim about soft unionists , the latest poll doesn't support such a claim and neither do the previous i believe.

The problem is that you have not shown anything to support the idea that the losses in the unionist vote share is making unity more likely. They might now identify as other but still wish to remain in the UK.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961215#Comment_119961215

jh79...will you stop.

I clearly said there will be no improvement in these polls until people have something to vote for - a plan/proposal.

Away now and stop making stuff up.

FrancieBrady

A fair argument made here on the issues with different polls on subjects like this.

https://irishborderpoll.com/2022/12/05/enough-voodoo-polling-time-we-had-proper-evidence-about-irish-unity/

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961650#Comment_119961650

It would be nice if there was single poll to track and what he says here is no different than the caveats written at the bottom of the LucidTalk Averages poll of poll but in the absence of one we are stuck with the data we have.

Main issue I would have is he is looking at it only from his own side ie pro unity. The data from the pro UK side is better/ more consistent and I believe consistent enough to assume a win. He's right tough that the polls aren't reliable enough to predict a final result for unity.

On a minor note, the author was quite happy to interpret/highlight polls when unity was leading and it's obvious from the website they are pro unity.

LucidTalk twitter account answered a similar question and basically there is no way to know until after the fact and all you can do is look at the success of the polling companies in previous elections. You possibly seen the same post on twitter as that's where I first saw the link you posted.

You probably seen on twitter too that LucidTalk and another stats person whose name escapes me were critical of the Irish Times headline for the poll. Unity isn't winning but highlighting the gap without sone context or caveats is unfair.

blanch152

https://sluggerotoole.com/2022/12/05/north-south-poll-reveals-the-key-barriers-to-irish-unity-are-health-social-uncertainty-and-the-economy/

This is an interesting take on the recent opinion poll.

"So southerners worry they are going to get a load of trouble dumped upon them whilst northerners are concerned about swapping the NHS for the HSE. Both want reassurance on the economic futures (each model has diverged massively)."

I have spoken before about the need to be clear about what happens in regard to tax and social welfare, not to mention education and health. This remark was very interesting:

"Asked what she would need to know before a vote, one female focus group participant, a 43-year-old working-class protestant woman from Co Antrim replied: “Exactly what it would look like. Not like Brexit, but exactly how it would look before it was passed.”"

Now some have said that it is up to the Irish government to present ideas, but that is a cop-out in my opinion. The onus is on all who want a united Ireland to put forward ideas. I have been very disappointed to date with the contributions on here. When you ask simple questions such as whether the social welfare rates should be equalised upwards or not, or how should they be paid for, you are met with blank responses or aggressive shouting down and avoidance.

jh79

Some more interesting data coming from the recent poll that would have relevance to the likelihood of a plan changing minds and the hard nature of the pro union vote. Nearly a third of protestants (20%.overall) would find a UI impossible to take while a further 25% overall would not be happy but would accept it.

https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1600063020364726272?t=MVcFl-oa0g5W_5THWWQ_bg&s=19

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119964403#Comment_119964403

2% of Sinn Fein voters in ROI would find a united Ireland almost impossible to accept!!!

Sam Russell

After the 1922 settlement in Dublin, many (protestant) state employees and others - civil servants, RIC, lawyers, bankers, etc. - chose to leave the state for either NI or Britain. Others - protestants - decided to stay and help build the new state. Some just kept their head down and lived as they always had, while others made significant contributions.

If NI voted to join the Irish state, then I would suggest the same will happen with Unionists that did not like the idea. Some will go, some will stay - all depends on the terms agreed.

The Flag - well if a new flag was needed, a tricolour representing the unionist and nationalist ideas would be a good idea with the nationalists represented by a green band, the unionists by an orange band, and separated by a white band to represent peace between the two. Oh, that looks very like the current flag.

The Anthem - well NI does not have an anthem, just settling for the UK one. Both Wales and Scotland have their own anthem. England uses the UK one because England is the UK - well according to the English.

Health - Ireland is trying to bring about SlainteCare - an Irish version of the NHS free at the point of delivery. The NI NHS is on its knees. So while one system goes up and the other goes down, they might meet in the middle.

Social Welfare - Ireland pays out much more for Social Welfare, so NI recipients might be happy with that.

Wages - Wages in Ireland are significantly higher than NI, and again NI workers might be happy to see a rise.

FDI - if Ireland speaks kindly to the USA, perhaps a few big projects might go north of the border.

Employment - Ireland needs more employees in every walk of life.

Housing - Ireland needs more houses - will the Northerners give us a dig out - literally.

Policing - sorted by having a suitable transition period, as with the legal system. We need more Gardai.

None of those issues strike me as impossible, and certainly less of a difficulty than the GFA was - the two sides were shooting at each other.

Now the real issue - how much would Ireland need to support the NI state if it joined? Well, would the UK continue to sub the North? Perhaps, but at least for a while. They would have to pay pensioners currently retired because their pensions are paid for. Those nearing retirement would expect the same. So some flexibilities would be needed. Lots of other funding issues - all to be negotiated. Perhaps the EU could help with one of their funding schemes.

But the deep deep hatred that some have in NI for this state is hard to deal with - and might be too hard to solve.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119963783#Comment_119963783

I’d throw in this chart from the poll as well Blanch. Blue is for a UI, Orange against.

Shows that for many, the issue will pass or fail on economics and resulting from that, peoples personal circumstances. As that person in Sluggers article commented about the experiences re the Brexit ref, people will want to know whats going to happen with a UI, and not be fed some ‘sunny uplands’ vision about it with no substance attached.

FraserburghFreddie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119964815#Comment_119964815

How do you reckon Irish health care is any better than the NHS?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119965744#Comment_119965744

It has better outcomes.

No, seriously. We have higher life expectancy, lower maternal and neonatal mortality, lower childhood mortality, better survival rates for stroke, better survival rates for cancer, better survival rates for heart attack.

Some of this is repetitive - the reason we have higher life expectancy is, at least partly, because we have more effective treatment for stroke, cancer and heart attack. And some of it is due to things other than the health service - we have lower rates of diabetes, for example, which might be down to a healthier lifestyle, or to fortunate genes, as much or more as to good primary care. But, overall, in terms of outcomes, the Irish health services perform extremely well in international comparisons.

But they're costly. If there are questions to be asked about the health service, it's not whether the service is effective, but whether it is efficient. We achieve our outcomes with an expenditure of 11.4% of GNI. The comparable figure for the UK is 10.2%.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119965731#Comment_119965731

You need to read those questions carefully. The questions are not of the form "would you vote against if it meant higher tax?", but "are you less likely to vote for if it meant higher tax?" Unless the respondent is wholly indifferent to tax rates, they pretty much have to answer "yes" to a question in the second form. But that doesn't tell you how many of them would, in fact, vote no if it meant higher taxes — you haven't asked them that question.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119965744#Comment_119965744

Well, let us start with the fundamental question.

Which NHS are you talking about? The NHS is setup in different ways, depending on where you live - the postcode lottery.

Scotland, Wales and NI all have independent NHS administrations - so which one are you talking about. England appears to have NHS trusts which all have problems of one sort or another. In England, you need to be careful where you live if you want to have access to the best hospitals. Also GP appointments are quite difficult to get.

I do not live in the UK, so I have no direct experience of the UK NHS, but just looking at the Covid pandemic reporting, the UK had many more excess deaths the Ireland. That is a metric that is quite appalling when you consider the number of elderly people who died because of delayed action by Johnson - appalling. Also the reporting was skewed by the definition of Covid being the cause of death.