Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954033#Comment_119954033

Do your own research to find that out? It's not a question I think can be answered.

All a proposal for a UI can do is lay out the best possible route to wellness and prosperity, itemise the costs as they are minus what won't accrue and + benefits.

After that it is up to everyone to make their own mind up. Same as every other referendum we have had and more or less run well.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954054#Comment_119954054

Bad choice of words, the available research suggests the average person wouldn't be better off but people like yourself want me to ignore that in favour of a narrative that the British will suddenly pull funding. As bad as they are, 15bn or whatever is your preferred number is a drop in the ocean to them.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954081#Comment_119954081

You do what you think best come the presentation of a White Paper/proposal.

Again you misrepresent the debate we are having by stating something I never said at any point in order to try and get a rise. No other reason for it, so don't waste time demurring.

You are too desperate, evidenced by the frothing at the outcome of one poll. I have said my piece and will leave you to it until I read something honest and new.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954129#Comment_119954129

Ah Francie, you are only polling at 27%, why would i be desperate! I am giving the reasons why i think it is polling so badly. Fair enough if you disagree but the reality is a UI is still minority position and doing nothing isn't going to change that

moon2

https://www.ria.ie/news/publications-arins-analysis-and-research-ireland-north-and-south/explaining-different-results

There are some interesting points mentioned in that which can help you interpret polls, and understand the biases created by the choice of phrasing.

The terms "leave" and "remain" are not what should be used as they are loaded terms (intrinsically tied to Brexit) and so have strong connotations that the result would have a negative outcome.

This particular poll is an outlier in comparison to all the other polls listed there, and based on the methodology used it's not surprising that it's an outlier.

More than half of Northern voters (55 per cent) favoured a referendum, with a majority preferring a longer timescale of 10 years. A clear majority of “others” wanted a referendum, with 51 per cent in favour, 24 per cent against and 25 per cent saying they don’t know.

Among voters from a Protestant background, 39 per cent said there should be a referendum, 47 per cent were opposed and 14 per cent said they didn’t know.

That said... Even it showed a majority in favour of holding a referendum which is great news for the prospect of unification!

FrancieBrady

There is a clear majority that want a referendum on the constitutional question on both sides of the border. This poll shares that desire with others. Several posters here have stated why that desire exists. Why would you want a poll if you were happy where things are?

No poll, including the ones with a higher percentage wanting Unity is definitive until there is a White Paper/Plan/Proposal in place. It and the campaign changed the game in the most recent example (Scottish Independence) we have of a poll of this type. I don't see that desire dissipating on the basis of one poll which is very much an outlier and I believe now more than ever that people want to be persuaded.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954308#Comment_119954308

Is it not pretty clear from the polls that some in NI are happy for a poll to happen because they don't believe it would pass?

For a poll to happen when unification is a minority position would require a renegotiation of the GFA which i don't believe either side want.

moon2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954346#Comment_119954346

As per my previous post, you're making an awful lot for assumptions based on a poll which is an outlier (outlier means not representative btw). You're also using a non-standard re-interpretation of the phrasing in the GFA to successfully strike down an argument that no-one has made.

The main point still stands though, as time goes on more and more people are open to the idea of a poll as described by the GFA, and also the proportion of people who are in favour of it are increasing. Accepting that the average person in NI understands the GFA as well, or better, than you then the implication of this is that it's not unimaginable to them that 'unification' could pass.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954887#Comment_119954887

In order to promote the value of this outlier poll there is also the willful ignoring of the pollster's own caveats. Here's John Doyle from the Royal Irish Academy, saying what has been said here.

Polls almost all ask people how they would vote if a poll was held ‘tomorrow’, as polling companies argue that people do not know what they will think in the future. However, in the case of a united Ireland, while the status quo is known to people, what a future united Ireland might look like is not known at this time, and as a consequence only a small minority want a referendum to be held ‘now’, while clear majorities north and south favour holding a referendum in a 5-to-10 year timeframe – after appropriate research and debate. The impact of greater information and detail will only be seen in time.

What is clear is that more sophisticated polling is needed, both north and south. The existing polls in the Republic of Ireland all suggest that a referendum would be carried by a large majority, but as the Irish parliament will have to take a lead on defining both the process of public debate and the proposed nature of a united Ireland – polling on the detail of specific proposals, ranging from the health system, to pensions and potential devolution, after they have been publicly debated, would be useful. In NI, there is no clear majority for a united Ireland at this time, but opinion is more finely balanced than ever before and there is a significant bloc of voters who will only decide after more detail is available to them. At present, the majority of credible polls of likely voters, show the percentage support for remaining in the UK in the mid-to-high 40s, and therefore the currently undecided will determine the final outcome

*Bolding is mine.

Explaining the different results in opinion polls on Irish unity - IICRR

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954938#Comment_119954938

Nothing here i haven't addressed already. You are assuming the plan would have a positive effect on the polling. It won't. The cost of a UI will require tax increases in Ireland and cuts in NI.

Those in favour of a UI fear putting a plan out there hence the focus on the red herring that is the subvention by SF rather than addressing the true cost of harmonization.

Support for a UI is soft. Any mention of tax increases and it collapses.

jh79

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/centenaries/centenarypoll/majority-favour-a-united-ireland-but-just-22pc-would-pay-for-it-40375875.html

Good luck coming up with a plan that involves no tax increases but convinces the people of NI that Ireland will pump in the required investment to fix their economy.

Vague claims of EU/US support are not working so far.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954980#Comment_119954980

Also John Doyle:

The UK Government's annual subvention payment to Northern Ireland would not be a barrier to Irish unity, a leading law professor has argued.

John Doyle said that when the likely outcomes of negotiations around Irish unity are taken into account, the new state would have to make up a deficit of around £2.4bn (€2.8bn).

Writing in the Irish Times, Professor Doyle, who is the Director of Dublin City University's Institute for International Conflict Resolution, said the deficit could be covered by a 5% growth in the economy and tax revenues, in line with projections.

What you have just done is give an 'opinion'.

Others see a UI as an investment in the future of the island. Which argument re; 'opinions' wins the day remains very much to be seen.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955026#Comment_119955026

No matter what name you give it, a unity tax or unity levy the end result is the same, a reduction in take home pay. Can't see a bit of word play improving that 22% to the required 50+1.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955026#Comment_119955026

So are you in favour of the economic partition that Doyle is promoting there?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955047#Comment_119955047

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955052#Comment_119955052

The point is jh79, you seem to only want to take the headlines of an outlier poll (do you even agree it is an outlier?) and willfully ignore the detail and other work done on this.

Instead of giving your own opinion which is based on a feeling in your water and nothing more, please address what he actually says. Then we can move forward.

My opinion for what it is worth is that any plan/proposal/White Paper, whether it comes from a coalition of FF & FG or a SF & FF one or any of those parties in a majority government will couch a UI in terms of an investment.

I.E. People will be shown how an initial cost will turn into a benefit ultimately, like any infrastructural/societal project we have undertaken (and there are many) since independence.

An anti-Unification/partitionist campaign will have to side with the promoters of a failed state, that has cost us much since Partition and campaign negatively from the get go. Best of luck with that.

jh79

Do you really think Doyle's position would increase the low level of support in NI? A UI where nurses in Belfast are paid less than those in Galway etc.

The focus is on the subvention because it is a cost that could be covered by Ireland without too much pain but anything beyond that will be a hard sell based on the opinion polls.

jh79

https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/solidarity-levy-could-be-one-of-many-new-costs-of-a-united-ireland

In your honest opinion would a "solidarity levy" increase or decrease support in Ireland?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955111#Comment_119955111

That, with the greatest of respect, is your opinion, which you are entitled to.

One poll with a specific methodolgy is an outlier, do you agree? Please answer/

Doyle has clearly outlined the caveats in polling which you wish to ignore, also your right.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955146#Comment_119955146

To be fair Francie there was a spike in support for a UI due to fears of a hard Brexit. Those fears aren't as strong now. So calling this an outlier isn't a true reflection of what is happening. It may be an outlier if only focusing on recent polls but not so much overall.

While Doyle has outlined his caveats I don't believe they are significant. He is , like you, assuming a plan is possible that satisfies NI need for investment and Ireland's unwillingness to fund it.

The polls say we wouldn't pay for unity yet you and him ignore that significant factor. Calling it an "investment" while not giving any idea what this would return isn't going to change anything in my opinion.

Grassey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955128#Comment_119955128

I really doubt it'd have much impact at the end of the day. For ROI it'll be an emotive issue, not economic. But if it were to focus on cost... Take that 3 billion figure mentioned above, that's on average 100 per month per working adult in ROI.

Sounds like a bargain to me.

Sure we love a good levy here, pension levy, auto-enrollment, usc etc... 🤣

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955176#Comment_119955176

One poll, which asked a 'have you stopped beating your wife' type question (I.E. 'Would you pay more tax'). Again you depend on that for an opinion.

Maybe read Doyle and others about how you get the results you want if you phrase questions a certain way.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954308#Comment_119954308

Francie, when the lucid talk poll came out they had a discussion on twitter on the results. The man made a very good point.

Look at the results for the pro union side, Average of 48% with very little variation. On the other hand the pro unity side fluctuates greatly. He said it shows a solid pro union support while there is uncertainty on the pro unity side and they flip flops from agreeing to don't know cohorts.

Even if a good plan did come out it is likely the pro unity side would increase with less don't knows but with the solid support on the unionist side would still remain a minority position.

jh79

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1599121096514555905?t=wwFqSlVKeKKjM9xoYIv3ww&s=19

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1599116304064999425?t=Zn_fWqWiolPEOg2etTmYfQ&s=19

Unionism isin a very good place based on the polling. Unless a downward trend is seen on the pro side, a UI is highly unlikely.

This poll isn't an outlier at all. Support for the uk is in line with previous polls.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955229#Comment_119955229

Fluctuation is to be expected when there is no defined plan/proposal/White Paper.

We have discussed this already.

48% in a Referendum is the minority position BTW.

weemcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955245#Comment_119955245

You're the first person I've seen in about ten years who has said Unionism is in a good place, including Unionists themselves. They've been on the wrong side of just about every political argument I can think of, and face an ageing, declining demographic.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955322#Comment_119955322

I meant it in the context of a border poll only. If you check back you'll see i think the inherent bigotry of both SF and DUP leads them to do stupid things that negatively affect their constitutional aspirations.

Support for remaining in the UK is consistent and strong despite the efforts of the DUP to mess it up. The flip flopping on the unity side a consequence of SF inaction on selling a UI along with other factors such as celebrating sectarian murders.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955303#Comment_119955303

It is a reliable 48% that only requires a smallish portion of the don't knows.

Are you really suggesting your side can convince 90% of the don't knows!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955360#Comment_119955360

Again the dependence on the figures in an outlier poll. Emabarassing at thie stage jh79

jh79

It's not an outlier, support for remaining is consistent with all other polls. Only uncertainty is on the unity side because nobody is willing to spell out what a UI might look like so people keep changing their minds.

The question is whether a plan is possible that convinces 90% of the unknowns or eats into the pro union support.

Good luck with that!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119955322#Comment_119955322

Exactly.

We don't know what future is proposed for any of the 'sides'.

What the British propose or don't propose for the continuation of partition will factor into how moderate Unionism votes. We have seen significant leakage in the strenght of the Unionist vote after all.