Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952328#Comment_119952328

Fine by me.

I think the longer the lead in time the better, within reason.

I see the Irish and UK working closely to make it work. The last thing the UK will want is a mess.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952331#Comment_119952331

Are they though? The more popular SF become the lower support for a UI becomes. While it is only a correlation, it seems whatever they are doing isn't working. Only 54 % of Catholics want a UI, they are struggling to convince their own nevermind the other side.

The signs for the "plan" aren't great when an EU/US magic money tree are being floated.

Chips Lovell

I think there's wishful thinking on two fronts, 1.) that the government will concoct a plan any time soon, and 2.) that a plan would shift public opinion in Northern Ireland in any meaningful way.

There are a lot of parallels with Brexit when you think about it. A realistic assessment of the impact by the government proposing the vote would only dilute support. In order to garner support, you'd need to start spinning promises like "£350 million a week to the NHS".

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952358#Comment_119952358

I think that was SF intention with the Hubner report but it backfired on them. A plan can be suggested and discussed anytime. No party has confidence in a plan changing anything hence why none exist.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952355#Comment_119952355

Magic money?

Who mentioned that?

Support can take many forms. I am sure there will be investment in all sorts of ways.

Again listen to the podcast and the caveat of sitting on laurels. It's more complex than the anti-UI people would make out.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952358#Comment_119952358

I would say there are closer parrelells to Scotland and the people who conducted this poll point to that rather than the mess the Brexit poll was.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952372#Comment_119952372

There are no obstacles to setting out a plan. We are sitting on our laurels by choice. Some because they don't want it and other because it's too much of a hard sell.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119905343#Comment_119905343

The Swiss are in Schengen and contribute financially to the EU, there's also free movement and other stuff that the UK have Red Lines on.

Swiss style arrangement is just another way to say cherry pick , have our cake and eat it. They only got it as a temporary introductory offer as it was expected they would soon be becoming full members. The UK isn't joining the gym. So no introductory offer.

The EU don't want multiple independent parallel negotiations. bilateral agreements between the EU and Switzerland are currently managed through approximately 20 joint committees vs "This is the deal , take it or leave it."

The UK is playing silly buggers over the NIP so get no share of the €95Bn science stuff. That's alone should clarify why the EU won't be bending over backwards to accommodate them.

NB antagonising the EU now will cost the UK goodwill and there's only a few years before the existing deal gets renegotiated. There's three years and one month left on the fishing part.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952394#Comment_119952394

Well there is...a very big one. FG and FF's fear of SF and enabling them. Fear of the balance of power shifting and them losing out.

I think Michael's Shared Island project was an attempt to lead from the front on Unity and you see Leo shifting position on it too.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952399#Comment_119952399

As I said they all have their own reasons for avoiding a plan. SF fear of the economics behind a UI is obvious.

The difference is that FF/FG wont face a backlash from the public for doing nothing as it isn't a priority for the majority in Ireland.

SF will face a backlash if they push a plan when it's not wanted.

Sam Russell

As I have said before, a united Ireland cannot happen until there is a united NI.

Peace walls have spread since the GFA, not reduced. Schools are still segregated. Politics is even more divided as the parties at the extreme ends gain at the expense of those in the middle. Every advance to one side is opposed by the other - just because.

I have tried to find statistics that can be relied upon to ascertain the actual cost of the subvention to NI, but the figures do not exist. [Neither do the profit figures for Tesco(Ireland) because they are hidden in the UK figures]. Obviously there is a reason.

Some basic assumptions cannot be certain. For example, will pensioners in NI still be paid by the UK Gov? Their contributions went to the UK Gov so they should still be paid by the UK Gov but will they? Currently, the UK pays pensions to Irish people living in retirement in Ireland where the pension relates to UK employment.

What about the pensions of current public servants? Will the UK make a contribution as they come to pension age? Again, the EU pays pensions of UK personnel employed by the EU while the UK was a member.

How will the current charge to NI of British defence costs? What about the British national debt built up to finance overspending (some of which went to corrupt Tories)?

Some VAT and Corporation Tax is paid into central coffers in the UK so some companies like M&S and Tesco payments do not get assigned to NI.

The whole economy in NI is not detailed separately so it is impossible to identify the actual cost of funding NI as is, and it is also difficult to see how much unity would benefit NI economically - it is unlikely not to benefit NI.

But unity has to be an advantage both socially and economically to NI - and be seen to be advantageous by a significant majority. Neither case is apparent at the moment.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952404#Comment_119952404

A 'plan' from a single political party is not going to cut it.

A plan/proposal from the government of a country that constitutionally aspires to a UI and in which a UI has majority support is the only game in town.

FG, FF have up to now shied away from that for the reasons stated, but as I pointed out that is changing.

This is just another poll in a voliatile situation.

Unionists seem honour bound to ensure the Protocol does not work and consequently powersharing so a lot can change over a very small timeframe.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952408#Comment_119952408

As I have said before, a united Ireland cannot happen until there is a united NI.

Partition was designed to ensure that. Talk of reconciliation is bullshit as there was never concilation in the first place.

Look around you, Unionism feels threatened...what does it do? Deepens division and dis-unity and retreats into a suprematist shell. That will never change because of how the state has utterly failed due to it's design/origins.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952429#Comment_119952429

I think SF fear of putting a plan out there has really cost them. At one point unity was doing well in the polls when a hard Brexit was a possibility. If SF had the bones of a plan then they actually might of achieved it. The people of NI don't see a UI as a viable options and SF are as culpable in that as any of the other parties.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952438#Comment_119952438

OK, so you accept deep divisions exist in NI on sectoral grounds - Unionists and Nationalists. So what can be done to reduce them, and even remove them?

SF are not the agents to achieve this - they only deepen the existing divides for their own benefit.

The lead must come from the UK Gov in Westminster which will not happen with current Tory Gov.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952453#Comment_119952453

Now you are reading stuff into a poll that simply isn't there. Don't fret, you are not alone, Jeffrey Donalson's take is that there is 'strong support' for the Union, despite the fact it is at 50% and at an historic low.

Take the poll whatever way you want, but don't be making unsustainable claims. nobody was asked about 'viability', they were asked would they vote for a UI.

In the abscence of anything 'viable' to vote for, I would not expect the figures to be much higher.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952438#Comment_119952438

Doesn't absolve SF of their role in deepening divisions. Celebration of sectarian murders etc doesn't help.

It is funny that SF push people away from a UI and the DUP towards a UI though.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952291#Comment_119952291

People need various level of convincing and some are better informed than others.

But it is not only a question of the nature of the present ROI, there is a question on the manner of leaving of the British and what financial arrangements they will make for pensions and so on. That settlement will determine many of the financial issues afterwards.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952459#Comment_119952459

I think you need to look at what the GFA achieved.

It convinced many many moderate Unionists that there was nothing to fear in the journey towards equality and parity of esteem.

I think a similar progressive agreemnent that respects their rights and identity in a UI will lessen the divisions over time.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952466#Comment_119952466

So what reason would you give for the lack of support in a UI in NI? It is very low at 27%.

While people will have their own reasons for voting a certain way, the idea that the public can't assess the relative economies and make a judgement on its viability doesn't wash.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952530#Comment_119952530

Well, to be fair, there is no proposal in place.

We are all in favour of world peace, but there are many wars in progress, and many disputes are are nearly at the war stage. The list is too long to post.

No proposal exists as to how to end these wars - but we are all in favour of peace.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952530#Comment_119952530

Clearly comes down to how it was carried out.

What reason would you give for a LucidTalk one finding 43% in favour or an Ashcroft on 46%?

P.S> if I was looking at UK economy and the way it is heading I wouldn't be voting for the continuation of the Union.

You point is silly in that respect.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952552#Comment_119952552

Look at the GDP for Ireland and then the UK! You're being ridiculous now.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952558#Comment_119952558

??

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952321#Comment_119952321

SF are speaking out of both sides of their mouth. I do not believe a UI is unaffordable but it would certainly cost something. The present government have set strong foundations for the economics by ensuring a 10% growth rate and public finances in surplus. The present government could credibly say that we have created some headroom in the public finances and we are in good shape to address unity and the strong support in the south means that even if there is some slippage then there is support for that. However, SF claim to want unity, but never advocate keeping anything in the tank, they inevitably want to borrow to the max right now and ensure that the 26 counties has no capacity to fund unity. Their politics is that someone else should pay for everything.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952438#Comment_119952438

He keeps coming out with this slogan about there needing to be a united NI before there can be a UI. It's utterly illogical since NI only exists as a sop to those who want to perpetuate division. It's like saying Scotland can't be independent unless all Scots are of one mind. It will never happen. NI will be united when Ireland itself is united.

jh79

C'mon Francie, Ireland has a GDP of 350bn and the UK 3 trillion according to google. UI is a massive task for us, it's not much to them bailing out NI every year.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952581#Comment_119952581

Nowhere is 'United' in the sense he means. However plenty of places have democracies where different views and ideologies can function.

NI has demonstrated over 100 years that they can't.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952586#Comment_119952586

The UK is facing reccession for a number of years and the worst on record.

Ask some of it's poorest what benefit that 3 trillion is to them?

You ask people to open their eyes and then shut your own when it suits.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952602#Comment_119952602

But they will always have the financial clout to cover the subvention no matter their economic outlook due to their sheer size. The same can't be said for the Republic. It has nothing to do with ability or ambition it purely down to the relative sizes of the economies.