Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

FrancieBrady

For the 4th time in recent history, there now follows a period of Unionist obsequious talking up of a new PM.

Dame Arlene told the News Letter: “I have said I preferred Liz Truss over Rishi Sunak because I think she not only understands the problems with the Northern Ireland Protocol, which are there for everybody to see, but emotionally she is very much more attached to the Union.

The triumph of hope over experience?

Liz Truss: Arlene Foster helps Belfast launch of new pro-Union foundation Together UK and praises new Tory leader | Belfast News Letter

Mr.Nice Guy

Oh dear.

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1567205925991157762

He is one of the very worst that party has to offer, which is saying something.

Seth Brundle

Staunch Breciteer Chris Heaton Harris is the new NI Secretary. Prepare for more nonsense!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581594#Comment_119581594

Amazing how many turned it down, if the rumours are true. They know what is coming?

pixelburp

Well I suppose the phrase about it getting worse before it got better might apply here?

FrancieBrady

Truss'es government being economical with the truth already.

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1567418198017933313

Snickers Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581808#Comment_119581808

That's got to be the most insanely optimistic spin on the announcement of an utterly cynical development that I've ever heard!

Truly you believe the world is a benign place and there's a little bit of good in everybody. You are clearly a very nice person and the world could do with a lot more of you.

Sadly, it tends to be more abundant in people like Chris Heaton-Harris.

Never mind about nonsense; this is a victory for "No-Nonsense". Clearly the new PM, an incarnation of a diminutive frilly blouse as opposed to the big girl's blouse she succeeds, has decided to dispense with the nuance and compromise on which the GFA-based settlement relies and put in place instead a yob who looks like a Chelsea Head Hunter who sleeps with a screwdriver under his pillow. (Go on! Look at him!)

Of course this is just the sort of "No-Nonsense" individual the Brits LOVE to see taking on Johnny Foreigner and letting him know who's boss. Put the boot in first, talk treaties (which we have no intention of honouring, of course) later.

This is tantamount to a declaration of war. Not of the physical variety. Yet. But it was always the case that Brexit meant that one side of the divide in Northern Ireland had to lose out. The Protocol is a loser for the Unionists, at least as they see it. The suspension of the protocol, and actions that will lead inevitably to a hard border somewhere in or around Ireland (however much the Brits might say "We didn't impose it") will be catastrophic for nationalists. And unresolved wars of words in N Ireland tend to lead to the nasty variety sooner rather than later.

God I hate Brexiteers!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119583843#Comment_119583843

No doubt that it is appalling optics. It's as if there was a majority anti Protocol pro Brexit community there.

FrancieBrady

Steve Baker confirmed as NI Junior Minister.

That's two ERG members now.

Leroy42

Not sure why people are surprised. NI is how the Brexiteers have worked out they can avoid blame on the mess that is Brexit.

Make an issue out if NI, which of course they all told us beforehand that it would never be an issue, and use that as the reason for everything else being a disaster.

So it makes perfect sense for the ERG types to be in charge, to push through on this path.

The problem is, always has been, that there isn't an easy solution. There are only compromises. But to compromise, as the WA did, just highlights the folly of it all and brings the questions back to those that championed it.

Mr.Nice Guy

Dreadful news.

https://twitter.com/PeterKGeoghegan/status/1567572980670021632

GFA going to be under an unprecedented level of threat approaching its 25th anniversary.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586147#Comment_119586147

Threat? Yes, undoubtedly but at this stage all SF and Alliance need to do is nothing and let the erosion of DUP support continue. We're heading to another round of elections soon enough, right? That could be very telling if Alliance became large enough that the "Other" designation became the 2nd largest grouping - then boom, we have an executive (correct me if I'm wrong)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586184#Comment_119586184

It's complicated.

The process of nominating the First and deputy First Ministers - Fact Check NI

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586147#Comment_119586147

It may be dreadful news for someone, but not for Irish nationalist interests.

These two d1psh1ts are primarily English nationalists. Thats all they care about. Their job in the NIO is to run the NIO, not negotiate with the EU to change the Protocol, which is a job for James Cleverly, the new ForSec and probably for Truss herself, ultimately.

The job for Chris Heaton-Harris will be to get the Assembly back up and running and to fight for budget at Westminster.

Unionists probably can't point to a Northern Ireland Secretary that they consider to be on 'their side', since Tom King, or Paddy Mayhew, 30+ years ago. I don't see that changing this time around either.

Mr.Nice Guy

I'd be concerned about the damage the NIO could do. They made a pretty good effort of sabotaging the negotiations for the Anglo-Irish Agreement until they were effectively frozen out at the end.

There's a report in The Guardian that Ahern and Blair are trying to kickstart negotiations with the EU:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/07/tony-blair-bertie-ahern-thanked-for-help-in-uk-eu-brexit-deadlock

Are Baker and his pal going to be on board with this, or will they try and sabotage any potential rapprochement?

Mr.Nice Guy

Michelle O'Neill's statement on the news today:

It’s with deep regret that I learned of the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. 

The British people will miss the leadership she gave as monarch.

I would like to offer my sincere sympathies and condolences to her children, and wider family as they come to terms with their grief.

I wish to especially acknowledge the profound sorrow of our neighbours from within the unionist community who will feel her loss deeply.

Personally, I am grateful for Queen Elizabeth’s significant contribution and determined efforts to advancing peace and reconciliation between our two islands.

Throughout the peace process she led by example in building relationships with those of us who are Irish, and who share a different political allegiance and aspirations to herself and her Government.

Having met Queen Elizabeth on a number of occasions alongside my colleague, the late Martin McGuinness, I appreciated both her warmth and courtesy.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119591668#Comment_119591668

Good, balanced statement. And she's right about the significant contribution. Her visit to Ireland marked arguably the highest point in Anglo-Irish relations since the foundation of the state - until all that was destroyed by an alliance of oligarchs and English Nationalists in the Brexit disaster.

Mr.Nice Guy

A date for the diary:

https://twitter.com/BBCMarkSimpson/status/1570378282197032964

There's been speculation for a while that it will confirm a Catholic majority for the first time.

Larbre34

Who gives a stuff what religion they are (or more saliently, what their parents baptised them into)?

The only majority that matters, will be that which chooses to reunite, or not with the rest of the island. And the majority that chooses to take the 6 Counties into the Republic, is quite a ways off yet.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632579#Comment_119632579

"Depending on your politics, the loser will get a 32-country socialist republic or an eternal UK." :pac:

NI was founded on the basis of acquiring the largest contiguous area that would have a Protestant majority for the foreseeable future. On Thursday we find out if that pillar is gone.

If Brexit is the stick then here's a carrot https://sluggerotoole.com/2022/09/17/the-poorest-irish-have-a-standard-of-living-almost-63-higher-than-the-poorest-in-the-uk/ "last year the lowest-earning bracket of British households had a standard of living that was 20 per cent weaker than their counterparts in Slovenia."

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632579#Comment_119632579

NI was set up to guarantee Protestant supremacy. so if the census shows that Catholics are now the largest religious grouping that is a massively significant, symbolic moment.

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119632579#Comment_119632579

'Catholic' is now just the catch-all term for Catholic/Irish/Republican/Nationalist etc. Similar to how 90% of the population here in the south are apparently 'Catholic' - we were baptised, most of us don't step foot inside a chapel other than for weddings or funerals, ergo 'Catholic'. Up north it's much the same, if you identify as Irish/Republican/Nationalist you'll put 'Catholic', and vice versa for the protestants. Hence the old joke... are you a 'catholic' atheist or a 'protestant' atheist?

pixelburp

The subject of the NI census has its own thread, but it was confirmed; more Catholics than Protestants. A 2% difference but still, a rather big symbolic moment.

https://www.thejournal.ie/northern-ireland-census-figures-5872999-Sep2022/

Seth Brundle

Two videos where Ken Clarke calls out the DUP...

https://twitter.com/Seanofthesouth/status/1579909484163436544?s=20&t=smSTh6B9ZmZWzuTyHJ5XOw

https://twitter.com/Seanofthesouth/status/1579912713119367171?s=20&t=smSTh6B9ZmZWzuTyHJ5XOw

Whilst many within the house agreed with Clarke, unfortunately, nothing is likely to come of it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119733521#Comment_119733521

An article which has admittedly been written by a republican leaning commentator but which succinctly outlines the pickle the DUP and Donalson have gotten themselves into by allowing the likes of Jamie Bryson to dictate policy.

Glaceon

This was what I suspected the whole time; that the protocol was being used as a scapegoat to avoid going into power with a nationalist First Minister. I wonder; when the fresh election is called, if they somehow managed to get back their dominance, would the protocol objections suddenly be put aside?

Seth Brundle

...and a Lord continues the criticism of the DUP...

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1580122930188812290?s=20&t=qSv2EdNKIlayIiVPSF_8HA

I think that is kate Hoey suggesting that SF are the most extreme right wing party in the UK 😏

retalivity

So a final attempt at nominating a speaker and getting the assembly back has failed today, meaning there will probably be new elections in December. This will surely be bad news for the DUP who seem to have snookered themselves on the NIP - they doubled down on rejecting it and playing to the hardcore base, but any moderate unionists who voted for them first time around should be be disgusted by their intransigence and flock to UUP or Alliance.

Would be funny to see their vote share reduce even more, maybe even see them lose a few marginal seats.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119801514#Comment_119801514

Unionist intranigence and suprematisim reaching it's natural conclusion - chaos.

And people will try to say that NI is settled and successful....it isn't, it is the tragic failure it has always been.

FrancieBrady

Jeffrey Donaldson manages to get called out on his initial statement on Cardiac Services, doubles down and has another go, only to prove how the Protocol avoided a long delay.

Spectacular foot in mouth really.