Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

trmartin

A challenge to the NI Protocol by several unionist politicians has been rejected today (14 March) by the Court of Appeal. The Court's ruling says that the Protocol was lawfully enacted. Lady Chief Justice, Dame Siobhan Keegan, said the case was very far from one where a court would even begin to contemplate whether it could intervene as the appellants suggest.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0314/1286299-ni-protocol/

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118784071#Comment_118784071

Since the charming Kate Hoey was involved in the legal action, I can't imagine that she was surprised when an uppity Taig of a Chief Justice sided with the EU!

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118784994#Comment_118784994

Delightful, 'there's always a tweet' moment from young Bryson earlier today when he was making insinuations about the impartiality of the judiciary.....a quoted tweet from him in September praising Keegan as a fantastic judge who will make an excellent Chief Justice who will ensure the entire community can have confidence in the judicial system.

Suddenly when things don't go his way, she's too taigy.

Mr.Nice Guy

I saw many unionists were going mad about this earlier today:

https://twitter.com/DavidScullion/status/1503385904551022594

The British government have rolled back on it following the backlash. It was a misunderstanding apparently...

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1503470110304088070

You can be sure the penny still won't drop that they don't give a damn across the water.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501131#Comment_118501131

Northern voters attitudes to a potential UI when economic/domestic issues are invoked would appear to favour the no side at the moment. The Institute of Irish Studies, University of Liverpool/The Irish News Opinion Poll of April 2022 asked the following questions:

"I would vote for a united Ireland even if it meant paying higher taxes." Only 24.9% agreed, while 52.4% disagreed.

When asked: "I would vote for a united Ireland even if it meant having to pay a fee for the healthcare services currently provided by the NHS." 23.3% agreed, while 56.9% disagreed.

https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Institute,of,Irish,Studies,Irish,News,Poll,March,2022.pdf

It appears to me that alot of work needs to be done to persuade people in NI of the benefits of a UI, especially if you link the issue to everyday topics such as the economy, healthcare etc.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410221#Comment_119410221

There is a more up to date poll from that source that shows more in favour 42% (from memory)

YFG also produced a poll here

https://twitter.com/cjhumanrights/status/1553410770737709057/photo/2

We are where the Scottish referdum was before it was called - support around the 30-35 percentile.

The pressure to test this with the electorate is mounting as is the need for urgent planning and discussion with stakeholders. Can't see it going away either with Truss or Sunak about to take the reins in the UK.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410458#Comment_119410458

Before there can be a united Ireland, there must be a united NI. If they cannot live in peace and harmony with each other, how can we expect they can live in peace and harmony in a UI?

Asking in a poll a hypothetical question like 'I would vote for a UI if it meant higher taxes?' is a nonsense. What taxes would be higher, and by how much? Would higher taxes pay for higher social security and pensions? Would I be better off in a UI? Would t'others be better off? Last one might be more significant than the others.

Why not ask 'Would you vote for remaining in the UK if it meant young people under 30 being conscripted into the British Army?'

Simple questions get simple answers.

Polls are designed to get the answer wanted by those paying for it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410646#Comment_119410646

The very reason there is an aspiration for a UI (a different way) is because there will never be 'harmony'.

My offering to people in NI would be that an inclusive UI, where everybody has the loudest voice possible in the running of the island's affairs, is a 'better' way to achieve peace and harmony.

There will always be a rump of belligerents and bitter partitionists.

It is minimising the influence of that rump that we should be seeking to do.

I agree with the 'more tax' question, very few will answer that unknown positively.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410458#Comment_119410458

Who participated in the survey?

This is exactly my own thinking, i expect there will be a lead-in period and that the future funding of NI will be on the table I am thinking there be a fund for the whole Island in this time as there will be big changes North and South if we are to have a UI.

New constitution for the whole of the Island, political reform, health service, judicary. Interesting times ahead.

Are the EU currently taking any action against UK because of the protocol changes? I think the EU just want a resolution and its really up to UK to find a compromise, we will only really come into the frame at a later time,

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410458#Comment_119410458

I think once the question of the Norths bloated public service swings into view, the percentages will drop. Brexit is hastening the question, but the answers as it were, haven't changed.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410646#Comment_119410646

I understand the sentiment Sam, but if (and I emphasise the if) the cause of the problem is partition itself, and the history of NI, which at its core was created to maintain the supremacy of one community over the other....well you'd have to question whether the continued existence of that statelet is actually prolonging any movement towards living in harmony?

To many, the suggestion that we can't contemplate Unification until the reason that Unification is important doesn't exist any more is akin to having a policy of telling people with an infection that they can have antibiotics just as soon as they finish fighting off that infection. It's a bit late, misses the point and could well lead to more deaths (but at least you'll save on the price of antibiotics I suppose).

An exaggerated metaphor of course, and you may disagree with the foundational premise that NI itself IS the problem, but it is just to highlight how your black and white approach ignores any degree of complexity.

I agree with your point on polling entirely. Polls can have value, but once there's any step away from questions which are neutrally phrased, they're about as much use as a chocolate teapot. 'Here, d'ya fancy spending a non-specified amount of money with no indication what it'll be spent on' is always going to elicit a negative response.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410787#Comment_119410787

I expect when all sectors are considered we have more public service personnell per-capita in the South.

Interesting to know?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410787#Comment_119410787

Prehaps one of the main reasons we need to properly look at this with the stakeholders and problem solvers.

Personally cannot see why a properly ordered transition period would not largely deal with it. No recruitment, voluntary redundancy packages, voluntary redeployment over a period of years etc.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410677#Comment_119410677

You think tax will be the only issue that will come up for serious debate....

• Adding over 1m conservative voters to the electoral rolls will change the direction of Irish society
• The dominance of SF in a UI
• Militarisation of the police force
• Body bags coming back from NI containing young guards and soldiers

A poll taken before the running even starts does not count for much. Once the campaigning starts attitudes will change very quickly. Asking people if they want a UI if it means say divorce, abortion and gay marriage will be repealed is a very different question, just as asking people in NI if they are willing to accept a proposition which is so much against their religion.

My expectation is that poll will be held too soon, it will be lost and you can wait another 50 years before it comes around again.

asdfg87

According to the web.

304,000 public servants South.

23,000 in Northern Ireland.

Is this correct?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

The structures would require another poll after 7 years.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

Campaigning will be on the basis of a plan/proposal in which all those 'serious issues' (A few project fear ones if I may say so) will be dealt with.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

If Britain decide to leave what happens, for me this decision is already made. The UK has to tick some boxes with EU and USA, throw a big pile of money at it for 10 years and its done.

People do not seem to realize is Britain can walk away from NI when they want, it now seems to be at the point that no-one wants the responcibility of NI and Britain are the only ones that want a UI, what happens then.

I expect if the assembly gets going again there be a new game.

I expect the Gardai will be armed.

Why in earth would you say divorec etc be repealed? thats nonsence.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

Sounds awfully like a Unionist veto with that threat of violence.

I thought they were all democrats?

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411104#Comment_119411104

The Unionists game is over, Boris outmanouvered them, it be interesting if new leader carry on, Likely as looks like Liz

The funny thing is all of our politicians tell us they want a UI, now is the time but we do not seem to be ready.

None of them dare to mention it but that likely just the politics game, it will be a game-changer if it happens.

Sam Russell

The UK Gov are heading to privatise the NHS, so the current format of being free at the point of use may end. Meanwhile, the Irish Gov are heading towards implementing Slainte Care which aims to have health care as being free at the point of use. Now if that question was put, which type of answer would one expect?

There is no reason to expect that the NIPS would disappear any time soon if there was a UI. I would expect a long term transition for a united police force over the whole island. Do not forget, we have an ex-PNSI high ranking officer as Garda Commissioner. So we have already started the integration.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411137#Comment_119411137

We'll never be ready if you listen to the Partitionists.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411165#Comment_119411165

Why would you think i would listen to Partitionists?

The ones that will be most effected will likely be the politicians and civil servants on both sides of the border.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411160#Comment_119411160

What is the timeline for Slainte Care? i expect possibly a UI come first.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411137#Comment_119411137

He didn't.

They'd best Theresa May at political chess only to, for reasons best known to themselves, begin eating the pieces.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411277#Comment_119411277

I do not know how hae swung it but it got done and for me it started a whole new chapter in NI. called "protocol" so as you say he got them to eat the pieces but he done it.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411261#Comment_119411261

I'm a civil servant. I won't be affected beyond our cohort increasing, but seeing as we were chronically understaffed for nearly 2 decades, hat will be welcome. I imagine we're not the only unit in that position. There's a lot more to the civil service than state administration.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411312#Comment_119411312

The web says the republic has 304,000, i expect its more a case of management.

All state employees are the same for me, its up to Departments to manage.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410646#Comment_119410646

'Before there can be a united Ireland, there must be a united NI' is just a partitionist cop-out. There will never be a united NI because the polity was set up to enshrine and perpetuate division. What you are advocating for is to give unionism a veto over the perfectly legitimate aspiration of reunification. It is a mindset that emboldens unionism to adopt a position of 'never, never, never' forever more because all they have to do is maintain a divided NI, and thus prevent unity. There can be no unionist veto.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411296#Comment_119411296

He did jack squat. It was Theresa May's deal with the original backstop. They essentially carved up their own country.