Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Nqp15hhu

I am really not sure what else to say.. the cold air comes down to Ulster around 6. There is colder air sitting to the NW. That is coming in on Saturday.

Ok maybe it might be marginal tonight initially, but I do expect showers to turn to snow here. And Friday/Saturday should definitely be snow, some areas have freezing levels as low as 200 metres.

pistolpetes11

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

You didn’t bother look ahead. The cold air flows in at 11pm-12am from the WNW.

MOD note

I warned you yesterday about the tone of your posts , everything comes across really aggressive , next warning is a week off

highdef

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The local microclimate in the hill here pulled through again. Not a drop of snow on the other hills, but snow lying on the road and ground down to 900 feet here. Not sure what causes this microclimate, but it is interesting.

Can you share the exact location of that hill? Perhaps others here (including myself) could have a look at local topography etc and maybe have a discussion to try understand why it snowed there but not on other hills.

Nqp15hhu

highdef wrote: »

Can you share the exact location of that hill? Perhaps others here (including myself) could have a look at local topography etc and maybe have a discussion to try understand why it snowed there but not on other hills.

I don’t want to say because it will give away where I live.

The hill is located in a sort of valley at high elevation. There is a hill to the west of it somewhat also.

Gaoth Laidir

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The hill is located in a sort of valley at high elevation.

DOCARCH

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I don’t want to say because it will give away where I live.

Just in case you are worried, Mods don't do house calls! :P

Nqp15hhu

No but certain members live nearby I am assuming

Meteorite58

Just my opinion looking like a good opportunity for decent snowfall later Sat into Sunday and possibly during Sunday with the initial occluded front and following troughs possibly giving a decent accumulation in places, for now the Northern half of the country showing the most potential. ECM has been showing this now for a few runs.

Getting very cold later Sat night into Sunday morning and on Sunday away from the coasts places struggling to get up to 3 or 4C and again falling below freezing for many early Sunday evening. No doubt Sunday and into Monday could have very tricky driving conditions. Would think lying snow on lower levels a strong possibility for now going by the model output over the last few runs.

That's it! I am buying a snowplough.

polarhullar

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No but certain members live nearby I am assuming

I drive past your house all the time

Kermit.de.frog

Been eyeing Saturday night as our best snow opportunity for a few days. Seems to have upgraded if anything. I'd prefer that occlusion to be a little more organised before hitting the west coast though.

We'll see.

United road

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I don’t want to say because it will give away where I live.

That is your right.

But You posted a video of yourself (6 mins long) on here not so long ago.
I would be more worried of being known by other local users as you said having done that, then i would be by advising a general area i live in.

pauldry

Good to see snow opportunity for Saturday.

They need to upgrade it before they downgrade it. Ill prob be looking out the window saying wheres my snow? But anyways we are near coast so hail will do if its heavy.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Be patient the cold air is coming tonight

There will be no precipitation here by then.
Saturday and Sunday does look interesting but it would not surprise if it goes wrong again.

TheMilkyPirate

Could be a nice covering in a lot of places Sunday morning going by the 12Z

Oscar Bravo

From met eireann

Saturday will be cold with sunny spells. Much of the country will be dry. However wintry showers will affect the west and north. Highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees with light westerly breezes. On Saturday night a band of rain, sleet and snow will move eastwards across the country. Frost and ice will develop as the rain, sleet and snow gradually clear with lowest temperatures of -3 to 0 degrees.

Gonzo

The GFS always makes these snow possibility charts look more extensive than what we end up when Atlantic air is well within the mix. I'd expect this to look more patchy by tomorrow. By Saturday the front will probably break up as it crosses the country and a dusting in places if we end up on the right side of marginal. Very unlikely to end up with those lovely scenes like we saw from Manchester last night.

GFS showing a widespread dusting, again these change from run to run and usually end up getting downgraded several times within the final 24 hours.

Kermit.de.frog

Just hoping that trough can be more organised before hitting the west coast for us in Dublin. Otherwise will be light to moderate at best by the time it gets here.

nacho libre

If this front does not break up, i'd expect further west it will be more marginal due to Atlantic influence. If a good freeze has set in before hand then places further east could do quite well. The tendency for these features, if the air is cold enough, is to have less oomph than what models at this range suggest.

esposito

nacho libre wrote: »

There will be no precipitation here by then.
Saturday and Sunday does look interesting but it would not surprise if it goes wrong again.

Fully expecting it to be a non event for us in the east anyway. 9 times out of 10 it is when it’s a band coming in from the Atlantic.

As pad1992 said yesterday us Leinster folk need an easterly or northeasterly to get something worthwhile. Scandi high please

Oneiric 3

It's kinda funny that those who complain the most about 'Atlantic slop' tend to be the very people who are glued to the charts in the hope they might get some.

Roll on some F11/12 storms.:cool:

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

Some beautiful skyscapes with heavy showers in the distance towards the Atlantic, none of them making it this far. Not a bad day for a walk.l[/URL]

You can walk in any weather... except black ice. :P

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

Fully expecting it to be a non event for us in the east anyway. 9 times out of 10 it is when it’s a band coming in from the Atlantic.

As pad1992 said yesterday us Leinster folk need an easterly or northeasterly to get something worthwhile. Scandi high please

this is our winters in a nutshell. Unless we can get an eastery/northeasterly then forget about seeing decent lying snow other than a temporary dusting.

Cold zonality kills the shower activity past the shannon if the air is cold enough and if it is on the wrong side of marginal which if often the case, we end up with cold rain instead and some hill snow.

For the east of Ireland snow is usually a feast or a famine.

nacho libre

esposito wrote: »

As pad1992 said yesterday us Leinster folk need an easterly or northeasterly to get something worthwhile. Scandi high please

Yes, if you are only happy with substantial snow fall, i agree. For those further East that will accept less, they could get a modest covering out of this, provided the trough is active enough and a few hours freeze sets in prior to the front passage across the country. For those of us further west, it will likely be rain and sleet.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

this is our winters in a nutshell. Unless we can get an eastery/northeasterly then forget about seeing decent lying snow other than a temporary dusting.

.

Unfortunately that's off the table till sometime in February, if it happens at all. The sooner people come to terms with that the better. If a dusting of snow does not do it for you, then fair enough, but other people might be glad to see a dusting.

Oneiric 3

UK Met forecast has a small shallow low passing over the north of Ireland (Saturday) which seemingly, just going by their forecast maps, is likely where the bulk of any snow showers would be:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eibCDreWoEM

Donegal Ken

Biggest risk of snow will be from later Friday into Sunday morning. Northwest and northern areas at the biggest risk. Saturday evening and Saturday night could give good accumulations especially across the west, northwest and north. Some accumulations could occur across the Midlands and East also giving dustings in places it will depend on how organised the band is. For Donegal showers mainly of sleet tonight with snow over higher ground areas. I wouldn't be expecting much of anything tonight biggest risk from Friday night onwards.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

Unless we can get an eastery/northeasterly then forget about seeing decent lying snow other than a temporary dusting. .

You had a Scandinavian sourced E NE earlier in the month. I don't recall reading reports of 10 foot drifts during it.

Gonzo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You had a Scandinavian sourced E NE earlier in the month. I don't recall reading reports of 10 foot drifts during it.

I meant a proper easterly/north-easterly with air originating from Russia/Scandinavia. That easterly earlier in the month had mild origins from SE Europe and most of Europe was also relatively mild at the time so there wasn't any cold to tap into.

TheMilkyPirate

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You had a Scandinavian sourced E NE earlier in the month. I don't recall reading reports of 10 foot drifts during it.

Someone who has been around here as long as you have; should know the obvious reasons as to why.

Anyway, I'm always happy just to see snow fall tbh. A dusting is great and anything more than that is rare and unexpected.

This is Ireland after all, Unless you're on high ground I feel people set their expectations too high most winters.