Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Hotblack Desiato

For the true believers, facts and data are irrelevant.

Anything bad = "EU punishing us"

Anything good = Sunlit Brexit Uplands!

peter kern

as quin dub

good stuff do you have a graph that shoes all eu countries by any chance cheers

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119431506#Comment_119431506

The Charts came from the Tradingeconomics website , you can slice and dice to your hearts content there. They look to have pretty much every country globally listed..

This one is "All EU" Countries

And this is "Euro Area" Countries

Strazdas

Very interesting thread from this economist. He thinks there could well be civil unrest in the UK this autumn, so bad will the situation with people unable to pay their bills and rent become.

https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1555466755094503424

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119433930#Comment_119433930

And with the change in the law WRT peaceful protests, there's a powder keg sitting there if civil unrest happened. All it would take would be one can of tear gas or flourished baton and it'll be the Poll Tax Riots all over again. Maybe worse now the law is so much more against civil disobedience.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119434141#Comment_119434141

It's difficult to predict what precisely will happen but he thinks it may well unfold that many millions of British people will be in no position to pay their energy bills or mortgages or rent. At that point, it becomes a question of how the UK government and the energy companies and the landlords respond to such a national crisis. It could easily be the Poll Tax scenario all over again.

Sam Russell

It could be the miners strike, but not restricted to miners of course.

Police doing cavalry charges to 'disperse' illegal demonstrations. Protesters playing 'marbles' to render the police horses unsafe. Tear gas, and baton rounds to blind and disable the protesters. It will be the London riots but without the looting - 11 years ago this week. [Of course there have been other riots if one cares to look.]

The Poll Tax ones caused a U turn by the Lady who was not for turning. Truss is quite used to turning - just like a spinning top - changes her stand on issues once she finds out what her puppeteer says what she really has to say.

Bit cynical

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119429497#Comment_119429497

Of course, the converse is also said by the other side:

Any thing bad: caused by Brexit.

Anything good: because the EU remains remarkably generous towards the UK despite Brexiteer provocation.

I think though for the majority, the narrative is simply moving on. The UK's non-membership of the EU is an accepted long-term reality and therefore membership/non-membership is no longer considered interesting as a causal factor one way or the other.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119434255#Comment_119434255

Already have the energy bills strike coming up which should be some fun for Truss to deal with esp. with yet again a raised cap most likely coming in October and of course the people in UK may refuse to pay on their mortgage inspired by the buyers in China. Either or both would cause huge issues for a Tory, let alone a Truss, government to try to resolve. Because if they fold then you can be sure there will be more protests coming and if they don't then their poor polling will cause even more woe. That is going to quickly turn into a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario because there is no easy solution (and no free money tree beyond more inflation which their voters will hate).

Strazdas

100% - give people a waiver on their energy bill debts and their mortgages and there will be uproar from certain sectors. Don't give it to them and there will still be uproar within the country. It already looks like they are heading into a major 'winter of discontent'.

L1011

Truss will look at how the Tories (with a new leader) got re-elected after the poll tax stuff and assume she'll be able to brazen it out with a few changes.

Grassey

Saw this Truss comment she made earlier.

On the issue of migrants crossing the Channel, Truss says she spoke to her French counterpart last week “to make it very clear that we expect French border guards to be working all hours in Dover to make sure that our border is protected”.

That's some taking back control... Getting thr French to protect your border... In your jurisdiction....

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119434255#Comment_119434255

The poll tax never came close to hitting that broad a section of society.

I'de say you will be talking not only about people who never thought they would protest but people who used to be anti protest.

I would say 80s Ireland is the best example we would be familiar with. And the key here is currently the anti protest laws target "lefty's/hippies/oddballs" but average suburban Mabel gets some cuffs or a baton is when it's truly over and for quite some time. It will be the Tories Iraq.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119434909#Comment_119434909

But more importantly; it would be Tories Iraq with a very incompetent leader who's very likely to misjudge and mishandle the situation and make it worse. Same leader is then likely to go after EU (again...) as a way to try re-ignite the voters behind her with Brexit as that worked for Boris (I don't see that working simply because "Brexit is done" and the fact no matter how you try to turn it the issues will be purely UK related in relation to gas cap etc.).

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119434338#Comment_119434338

Well, being able to back up one's position with facts and data is kinda important no matter what "people" say.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119434338#Comment_119434338

I'm not sure the UK's continued existence is a long-term accepted reality.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119434338#Comment_119434338

Its actually the British media perpetuating the Brexiteer / Remainer context.

Any vaguely liberal or social democratic push, complaint or opposition is characterised by them as 'Remoaner' plotting or sour grapes.

I'm not saying that completely isn't the case, but the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

The big March for Rejoin takes place in London on Sept 10th. That will be a significant bellwether event, demonstrating either continued passion to overturn Brexit, or that most people have moved on.

The fact it will happen just five days after the new Tory leader is announced, could well give it some serious oxygen too. Interesting couple of months ahead.

looksee

Is that 'Rejoin' an aspiration for the future, or is there a significant proportion of the people who are as deluded as the Brexiters and think its just a matter of announcing to the EU that they are willing to come back?

pixelburp

Problem with a London march is ... it's London. We already know the city is deeply pro-remain so its size could be easily dismissed under the "urban millennial snowflake" umbrella reduction.

Large demonstrations in Sunderland or Cornwall would, IMO, make a much louder, stronger statement of national mood and intent

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436259#Comment_119436259

I think pro-remain protests in Somerset North might be a greater, louder, statement.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436259#Comment_119436259

Could see a general strike across all the major cities together.

Also I know this won't succeed but there are people trying to build a "don't pay" your bills movement.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436281#Comment_119436281

Well, I just picked the first Brexit Leave constituencies I could think of. London has become Othered so much by rural, Little England I just don't think protests in that city would suffice anymore.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436283#Comment_119436283

I dunno, when these people have nothing left to give, and it's going that way, a strike on bills may at least give some space. The problem is obviously getting that committment from a large enough volume of people.

Sam Russell

There is something delicious about those who cannot pat their energy bills actually turning not paying into a protest movement. If it is taken up by many, it will spread and be taken up by those who can pay - and so the movement would grow. It is basically passive resistance.

If it reached a significant enough number, it could not be ignored politically, and what do they do about it? Disconnect those who do not pay? Would those who do not pay take to the streets? Do the police start their military tactics like cavalry charges and baton rounds and beating the **** out of protesters?

I wonder how far the people and the politicians would go?

Winter of discontent in spades incoming.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436586#Comment_119436586

I recall googling some time ago and finding that you can't be cut off here for non-payment. Obviously, there are other consequences such as the destruction of one's credit rating but concerns of that nature don't figure too highly in a cost of living crisis. None of this is going away. We know what's coming. Germany's in for one rough winter but they have the advantage of having politicians who are connected to reality.

What I find baffling is the perversion of British culture and heritage by these charlatans. Take policing for instance. Policing here is done by the consent of the community, not to it. It's rooted in the Peel reforms of the mid-nineteenth century. The protests that resulted in the taking down of the Colson statue in 2020 are a good example.

Since then, these obsessed anti-woke cultists have awarded the police powers to effectively shut down protests if they so choose. It flies in the face of the Peel principles which are the foundation of British policing for the best part of two centuries and for no greater reason than that the Conservative party is obsessed with shutting down debate.

To answer your question, working class people, particularly in the areas Johnson was supposed to level up engaging in civil disobedience rising is the worst thing that could happen to the Tory party now. They've aggressively courted these people with cruel, white nationalist policies on immigration, hatred of trans people and resurrecting the Brexit debate to cover for being intellectually braindead. It's one thing to shut down a march expressing sympathy with a persecuted LGBT group in, say, Saudi Arabia. Quite another to do the same to people in Sheffield who can't afford electricity or heating.

Simply put, they'll attempt coercion because it's what they're used to doing and then they'll immediately U-turn because it's also what they're used to doing. It grieves me to see people here suffer because the Conservatives have continually debased and denuded this fine country. Despite overwhelmingly favourable coverage in the press, well below 50% of people vote Tory. They don't deserve this but watching the Conservative party get dismembered would almost be worth it.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436161#Comment_119436161

Problem with 'rejoin' is that England (not the UK) has become something of a dysfunctional political basket case. I cannot see any scenario where the UK (with England as its main constituent) is admitted to the Single Market in the next 10-15 years, not with so many hardcore Europhobes in the country, in the main political party and throughout the media.

Much more likely that we will see Scotland and NI in the EU at some point. The remain / liberal element of the English population are ignoring the elephant in the room that is right wing English nationalism - it is all around them.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436772#Comment_119436772

Whatever about the Europhobes in England, the carry-on of their politicians over the past few years has made Anglophobes of a lot of European countries, resulting in them being extremely reluctant, if not actively hostile, to the UK rejoining the EU.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436827#Comment_119436827

Yes, that's a good point. A part of me actually thinks Brexit is a great idea - the Conservative Party, their voters and the right wing press are now outside the EU and can't do anything to harm or impact on the union.

It's no longer even relevant if the English tabloids attack the EU. They are talking to each other and nobody is even listening to them.

Sam Russell

In Ireland we would be conflicted.

De Gaulle said 'NON' twice to Britain joining because they were incompatible to the European project of ever increasing closeness. How right he was.

However, if Britain did not join, then we would find it hard to join without them.

We were heavily dependent on them for exports and imports and we were dirt poor. In the intervening four decades, we are no longer dirt poor but filthy rich. We used the EU wisely to our advantage, and joined in with the European with the enthusiasm of a convert - but it is something we always agreed with.

If NI was sorted, I do not think we would be bothered if they never re-joined.

murphaph

Let them into the SM by all means but not into the EU and given their lack lustre record on checks and controls, make them accept supervision at their ports by EU officials, paid for by them. I simply don't trust them to police the external frontiers of the single market and they have big ports, able to import vast quantities of substandard tat.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119436935#Comment_119436935

I suspect they would even be disruptive to the Single Market and looking for opt outs. You can already imagine the right wing press and their readers complaining about how 'unfair' the rules of the SM are and how they are holding the UK back. Admitting them even into the EEA or EFTA could be risky, crazy as that sounds.