Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663384#Comment_118663384

He certainly wasn't a dogmatic ardent Brexiter but for someone who was representing a non partisan think tank I thought he was a bit opinionated.

There is certainly nothing he said that should be seen as a positive for Brexit.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663056#Comment_118663056

But do you not realize what the cheer for Allister represents ?

The people at this rally were hard core Brexiteers.

They are not some sort of unhappy Remainers angry at the DUP for supporting Brexit.

They don't care that they could have had the best of both worlds from Brexit.

All they see is that there is a border to the east when there should be one to the south.

And they are angry about that and the DUP are to blame for not having that border to the south.

That event in Makethill looked like an July 12th parade during an ice age.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663546#Comment_118663546

Truthfully no, in my naivety I assumed they were semi-rational people beginning to realise how impoverished they were probably going to become due to bad decision making and getting into bed with the tories who saw them at best as useful idiots that could be cut loose at the opportune moment ...thereby not casting brexit in a much deserved bad light...

I had imagined business people etc ....people starting to realise what a pup they've been sold....

I didn't realise we were talking about another level of cut off your nose to spite your face.......suppose that just shows how little I understand.....seems to me then if the positioning of the border is their problem they are as much responsible for that as Sammy.....what choice did he have, it's not like that level of blind zealotry leaves him much wiggle room when it comes to negotiation. When Sammy Wilson isn't hardcore enough for you I'd imagine you are in trouble.

Out of curiosity are you telling me there aren't a lot of unionists (albeit maybe not in that crowd) that realise what a balls the DUP made of this and how much potential money they have lost them and how potentially disastrous their actions might be.....you know, one's with businesses, money and influence....ones that do have something to lose etc

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663695#Comment_118663695

I learned to call them "Headbangers" when I moved to Kerry. Seems appropriate - keep banging your head against the wall. It only stops hurting when you stop.

peter kern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118662986#Comment_118662986

the pound is slightly higher now than the average since end of 2008 fiancial crises which is 1.19 ... when the uk triggered article 50 one pound was 1,15 euro. the only way you could argue pound has lost would be if you take the pound value on referendum day which was 1.26 but that was at the end of the one spike the pound really had in the last 13 en years

so i guess the most accurate statement would be the pound has not lost value since brexit..

now we can argue if that is a win or a loss if we look how much value the pound has lost over the last 20 years...

Sam Russell

75 years ago, GBP (UK£) was worth US$4.09 - yes, that was 5 shillings per dollar which is why the half crown (2s 6d) was called a half dollar. In 1949, it was devalued to GBP 1 was worth US$ 2.80 which held till 1967 when Harold Wilson devalued it to GBP 1 = US$ 2.40.

It was floated in 1971, and was free to go where it would. Since then it has floated up and down, with occasional support from the BofE when it was going downstream a bit too much and too rapidly. Most notable was Black Wednesday (16th September 1992) the British pound was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) or the snake. This might explain why the UK never wanted to join the Euro.

The UK£ is a very volatile currency. Currently, it is worth less that the Punt would be if we had it instead of the Euro.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663056#Comment_118663056

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663095#Comment_118663095

Ta; it's depressing, but not entirely astonishing still hearing the "no surrender" chant. So much of Ireland has changed, and is changing, yet here are these angry old men, still clinging to an old Identity and catchphrase increasingly archaic and empty.

Annd9

I had to play it twice but he definitely finishes with "Snow Surrender" , the silence said it all .

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663095#Comment_118663095

Wilson's Last Stand. The DUP really backed the wrong horse. They could have kept their heads down and enjoyed living out their days in the union. Might not end that way now.

murphaph

I watched the rest of the spectacle in Markethill on YouTube. Embarrassing really. Unionism actually looks like a spent force watching it. They even admitted it themselves that if the protocol stands, the union is over. The protocol might actually give the union a stay of execution as NI benefits economically from being in both unions but long term its economy will align more closely with the republic's and there will be no remaining arguments left to maintain the union with Britain. Britain itself will probably come back into the SM in time anyway. NI's strategic advantage would be toast at that stage. It would be a very wise time to go all in on a UI if/when that day comes.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663546#Comment_118663546

Yes, but what they're missing is why they have a border to the east.

They have a border to the east because the British government chose that. Of all the model of brexit on offer, this is the one the UK government chose. Pressed for, even.

They blame the DUP because the DUP backed the British government in its direction of travel on this until they saw where it ended, at which point they were unable to do anything about it. But they themselves are making the same error - blaming Dublin, blaming the EU, ans still looking to the British government to free them from the Protocol that the British government devised, pressed for, negotiated, agreed and committed to.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665834#Comment_118665834

You're making the assumption that people are rational actors. Brexit itself proved, if proof were needed, that they are not.

A Border in the Irish sea sounds alarm bells for Unionists because they think that it is the beginning of the end - mother England cutting another one of the umbilical cords and threatening to send Unionists into a sea of Popery. "There's the foul stench of treachery" to quote Peter Robinson about a previous deal.

I used to believe that a UI would come about for economic reasons. I no longer believe that. You are not going to make a million British people feel Irish no matter what you do - even if you stuff their mouths with gold.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666122#Comment_118666122

I don't know if I'd quite say that the DUP backed the British government's stance - during Teresa May's administration they had chances to back some of the governments' softer Brexit options, but chose instead to back the ERG's hardline Brexit in numerous votes in the House of Commons.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666835#Comment_118666835

They are still dependent on the British government to implement their hard border to the south of them something that is unacceptable to EU/American/Irish political opinion of which the British government has to deal with. Their only option is to re-create the troubles and bait the nationalist community and get the British Army back over to re-create the border of the past. Something that many of them very much long for.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666835#Comment_118666835

The thing is, under the GFA only fraction of the million or so in the PUL community need to be persuaded to vote for a UI, assuming a majority of their nationalist counterparts do too. The unionist Catholics are easily persuaded financially. They have more or less no other reason but financial to stay in the UK. I think a UI without Brexit was extraordinarily unlikely in my lifetime. Now I wouldn't rule it out. A lot will hang on how rough things are in GB thanks to their self-imposed sanctions. There aren't enough FTA's in the world to make up for the lost GDP thanks to exiting the SM. They needed a comprehensive US FTA to have even a sliver of a chance of making Brexit kind of work and they aren't getting that. GDP is almost certainly going to suffer long term and with it public services will have to be scaled back. Now will NI see its public services spared at the expense of Tory (or even Labour!) voting heartlands? I don't think so.

breezy1985

The problem for the DUP is they can lose half their vote to TUV or pander to that half and lose the other half to Alliance and abstained voters.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118667407#Comment_118667407

It doesn't matter if a fraction of the million vote for a United Ireland. As the late Seamus Mallon said a 50% + 1 vote for a United Ireland is no good, if you have a very large disgruntled minority.

Unionists have had decades to observe our economy doing better than theirs, but it still makes them no more likely to vote for a United Ireland than it did when the situation was reversed. I even remember reading about some Loyalist Gang leader who worked on building sites in Dublin during the Celtic Tiger - it didn't make him any less of a loyalist.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118667130#Comment_118667130

The situation has changed completely now. The murder squad that was the UDR has been disbanded, the RUC has transformed into the PSNI and is no longer as blatanly sectarian as it was, and on the other side, any American support for an armed republican struggle has disappeared. Of course, it's in the British government's interest to provoke the Unionists in order to try and get concessions from Brussels, but it's not going to work. A British government whose economny depends on trade deals with the EU and US has been told in no uncertain terms by both of those, that any attempts at damaging Northern Ireland will have serious consequences.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668184#Comment_118668184

True. As has been said that before there will be a united Ireland, there has to be a united NI.

That will happen if the UK Gov decides to dump NI, or at least dump the huge subvention, as they have done with Cornwall and Wales, despite promising not to do such a thing.

They have previously announced that the UK Gov has no strategic interest in NI. How soon will it be before a red bus with the cost of the subvention travels around the English countryside proclaiming this amount could transform the NHS.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668184#Comment_118668184

They can't argue against 50%+1 as the Brexit they broadly supported (I'm aware the UUP campaigned for Remain) passed with 50%+2.

There's no democratic accommodation for anti democratic forces.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668184#Comment_118668184

Well they have also observed that they are essentially only surviving on the charity of the UK. A change into the Ireland would be difficult and require a lot of EU funding which presumably isn't on an infinite tap. I don't think it can be overstated how bad the NI economy is and well there would be a lot of changes to try and get it functional again if it rejoined Ireland and many hate change as well.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668897#Comment_118668897

Any unification deal would need a proper 15+ year timeline to wean NI off subsidies and get the entire population of both NI and RoI used to the idea of an all Ireland country.

A United Ireland will spell the end of NI, but likely also the Republic, and it will take a lot to get people on both sides to accept this.

murphaph

I used to agree that we shouldn't entertain a UI without broad unionist buy in but they burned all my good will when they set a match to the GFA and supported Brexit as they did. Their chickens are now coming home to roost. I see the UK in a very different light these days and I would rather the UK no longer occupied part of the island of Ireland anymore. It's just too messy with them and their carry on. It will be rough alright at the beginning as disgruntled loyalists go on a last spree of God knows what but there would be nothing to fight for as GB would never take NI back no matter how many people in Ireland wanted it. A UI is a one way street. Most unionists would just accept it though as nationalists had to accept partition.

Hermy

"It will be rough alright at the beginning..."

That same line has been used to justify Brexit.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669155#Comment_118669155

Very different situations.

murphaph

Brexit needs unicorns to make it work. A united Ireland just needs more FDI.

Hermy

At what cost?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669235#Comment_118669235

Try asking the million UI threads and SF threads already on Boards

murphaph

Indeed. There's going to be a cost associated with sharing the island with a belligerent country which is what the UK has become. A UI certainly creates a lot of problems but solves a lot of them too. The biggest reason that a UI is probably inevitable is simply that England does not want NI. Brexit and the protocol has made that abundantly clear. Eventually even hardcore loyalists might just ask themselves what the hell they are loyal towards? A country that despises them and casts them aside to get what it wants? Are these loyalists just loyal to the crown? Will that loyalty endure when ERII is gone? Can't see anywhere near as much loyalty towards the crown when Elizabeth is dead and gone. Loyalism is nowhere near as big as it was a few decades ago. It's shrinking year on year and moderate unionists are not about to burn their nice housing estates down over a UI. They will get on with life and most will wonder what all the fuss was about.

Apologies for wandering a bit off topic.

swampgas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118670292#Comment_118670292

My understanding is that hard-core unionists like the TUV and DUP aren't loyal to the UK because they like it - they are loyal because they loathe, fear and distrust what they see as a papist, terrorist-sheltering enemy state on their doorstep. The shadow of historical injustices must make many of them a little uncomfortable too - the coloniser afraid of the colonised getting the upper hand. It's antipathy to Ireland that has them loyal, not any great affection for London.