Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118624176#Comment_118624176

No, the jobs are still at 30% of where they were before Brexit vote; that's not a rapid recovery but a drastic decline. That the decline has gone from 85% to 70% reduction is still drastic no matter how you slice it. You also conveniently forget that the TCA is controlled by EU based on the fact UK keep the controls EU require and can be pulled at any time EU feels UK controls are not good enough. With Covid now being removed EU has as well started to step requirements of finalizing those relocations they required earlier but halted due to Covid.

Leroy42

What rebound? From what to what?

93k in 2016 to 33k now. Is that a win?

yagan

Another factor for that rise in vacancies is positions simply not be filled. Before Brexit those positions could be filled by EU applicants, now it's no where as straightforward as accepting a job offer and turning up. Now there's visas involved.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118624351#Comment_118624351

Surely that would mean more vacancies - not less.

It is a nonsense to be judging a labour market by vacancies when the real measure is jobs filled - that is how many actually are in jobs now. It is like describing the weather as 5 degrees warmer than yesterday which is not much use if you do not know the actual temperature either yesterday or today - or what it was like this day last year. It might be a measure of confidence in the market, but not on the markets actual health.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

looksee

But if you just announce 'we have 95% employment' it will not give the information that there is in fact potential for more jobs than the employable population. It will make government numbers look better but not inform why businesses are struggling; smaller businesses go to the wall and bigger ones have the staff but put prices up.

Seth Brundle

JRM appears to have revised his view on when there will be dividends from Brexit.

The first paragraph of this story is "Brexit will transform Britain and deliver such dividends that within a decade nobody will want to rejoin the European Union..."

To my knowledge JRM still has not declared what these dividends might be bit based on his previous beliefs that food and clothing would be cheaper after leaving the EU, I remain sceptical of any future claims!

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1492824259483381767?t=JYya88eWvxFbYknEeXM3Dw&s=19

breezy1985

It's just nonsensical waffle. Same as Johnson quoting random off topic classics phrases to sound intelligent.

The "wisdom of crowds" is just vacant nothingness. If it means anything it sounds more like something you should be afraid of like mob rule.

pixelburp

I don't have the source but I do remember Reese-Mogg, when pushed, saying it'd be 50 years til we saw the true benefits of Brexit. I wanna say this was circa 2016, and not long after the result. Now it's downgraded "coming real soon!" Well. I suppose geographically speaking 50 years is very soon so there's that. The transparent manner in which the wording resembles that of a con artist, or spoofer, would be hilarious if it wasn't tragic. Benefits to come real soon, just gotta hold fast. Believe harder. No honestly, I'm good for it, just look at those exploding job numbers. Dead cat what you say?

joeguevara

200 billion has moved into Irish banks i the last year and jumped in the international banking centre and Brexit is seen as the accelerating driver. This is when the transitional period is there so expectations to clear even more. Now filling those jobs will mean less in UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/brexit-boosts-ireland-s-international-banking-sector-1.4779576

EU said taking over euro clearing once next extension finishes. U.K. financial system will be relying on whether the EU decision on the level of dependence on a third country.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118625723#Comment_118625723

Reminds me of Donald Trump's many many bullsh1t statements. When he was running in 2016 and was talking about repealing and replacing Obamacare, what was he going to replace it with? "Something terrific".

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118624223#Comment_118624223

Brexit supporters will see that as a win, yes.

Snickers Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118625325#Comment_118625325

Some of the comments on that Twitter thread are hilarious. My favourite one is this:

"So let's get this straight...

1. In the 1980s anti EU movement was formed

2. In 1993, the Tory ERG was formed

3. In 2015, the referendum was agreed

4. In 2016, the referendum happened

5. In 2022, an advert in the Sun asked for help

You've had over 30 years to research & plan.."

So now they ask Sun readers for suggestions. You couldn't make this up, or if you did people would be screaming "Fake news!" with some credibility.

Another frequently asked question, and dear to my heart, is: "So what about all this cheaper food, clothing and footwear that you promised the lower income groups as a consequence of Brexit?

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118629518#Comment_118629518

The food, clothing and footwear seems to be coming in OK-ish, it’s a while since I saw reports about empty shelves (…unless that’s been normalised, by now).

But it’s cheaper only to the importers, because they’re (apparently) under-declaring.

https://theloadstar.com/clueless-or-queue-less-is-uk-customs-missing-a-trick/

Smuggler Central, looks like. As foretold.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118629934#Comment_118629934

The UK has had customs problems before. And they are still not sorted.

https://www.law360.com/tax-authority/articles/1420099/uk-failed-to-stop-2-7b-customs-fraud-ecj-advocate-says

It's a long running case. And it's not winning them any friends in the EU.

OLAF calculated that U.K. customs' “continuous negligence” deprived the EU of €1.987 billion in revenues in lost duties on Chinese merchandise. The highly sophisticated organized crime network also stripped €3.2 billion from the value-added-tax income of major EU countries such as France, Germany, Spain and Italy, the investigators said. 

Peregrinus

Britain was a sovereign, independent country within the EU. Now that it's outside the EU it is no more sovereign or independent and, far from being a free-trading country, its trade is considerably less free than when it was in the EU.

But the rhyme fits. Not all roses are red, and in fact very few violets are blue. The claims it makes about Brexit are as fatuous as the claims it makes about botany. Brexit supporters have a seemingly endless appetite for this kind of thing, for some reason.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Troll rebanned and posts removed.

retalivity

The whole thing about Mauritius planting a flag on 'British sovereign territory' is another slap in the face for those in the UK who still think they are a global power. When a small island nation that may be gone in 100 years of global warming are getting one over you, maybe its time to re-evaluate where you are in the world.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633637#Comment_118633637

What I find interesting about the story is natives taking back control in a real sense, compared to the delusional revolution of the Neo Britannia Brexiters.

wexfordman2

What's the story with Mauritius?

ancapailldorcha

Britain’s ownership of the Chagos archipelago has been formally challenged after the Mauritian ambassador to the UN, Jagdish Koonjul, raised his country’s flag above the atoll of Peros Banhos.

In a ceremony on Monday at 10.30am local time, Mauritian officials sang their country’s national anthem and the red, blue, yellow and green standard was raised up the flagpole.

Koonjul said: “We are performing the symbolic act of raising the flag as the British have done so many times to establish colonies. We, however, are reclaiming what has always been our own.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/14/mauritius-formally-challenges-britains-ownership-of-chagos-islands

I don't know the background too well but it appears that the Mauritian government is laying claim to territory they deem belongs to them. There's been an international case ongoing for years now about this. They took the case to the International Criminal Court despite British objections. EU member states notably abstained from voting at the UN over this. They didn't want to needlessly provoke the UK but at the same time, they had no incentive to vote with the British either.

looksee

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/14/mauritius-formally-challenges-britains-ownership-of-chagos-islands

Mauritius says it is just confirming what is already their territory and simultaneously pursuing a scientific survey. UK says it is British territory.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633993#Comment_118633993

Can you imagine Boris declaring war on Mauritius? It's been often said great empire die not with a bang, but with a whimper.

Snickers Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118633993#Comment_118633993

And the thing to remember about Mauritius is that, according to the CIA, it is one of only two countries in the world (the other being Laos) who spend a smaller proportion of their GDP on defence than does Ireland. Be afraid, England. Be very afraid :)

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/military-expenditures/country-comparison/

breezy1985

Delighted for the locals. What happened on Chagos was a disgrace. Further proof that the English always see the colonized as 2nd class citizens or worse

ancapailldorcha

Below standard off topic posts deleted.

Padre_Pio

Brexit seems like a religion at this stage.

Something bad happens: Blame on COVID, the EU, immigrants, poor people, rich people, definitely not Brexit.

Something good happens: Definitely Brexit, no doubt. Couldn't have been anything else.

CJhaughey

You could call it a religion but to me it has more of the trappings of a Cult.

serfboard

Whether you call it a religion or a cult, the cult leader has done (some of) what the followers wanted him to do - to send home the Eastern European immigrants, who, it appears, have left in their thousands. Now how to get rid of the pesky millions who simply won't leave? Well, let's start by making it very difficult to remain, and Priti Patel's Home Office has being playing a blinder in this regard.

The emigration has resulted in a shortage of tradespeople in all sorts of areas, leading to a steep rise in the prices being paid to certain professions. Another win.

The fact that this pushes up prices for everyone else, and means some things aren't getting done? Well, it's swings and roundabouts, innit?

Padre_Pio

exactly. Unemployment is at a near record low, and wages are up.

Brexit win.

Don't mention the huge labour shortage, the huge skills gap, the brain drain etc etc.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645815#Comment_118645815

Your first point was a win for Brexit voters as this is what they really wanted.Sadly they dont understand tax vs expenditure ratios so now when they get old there will be more pensioners than workers and no tax from Paddy and Pavel to pay for their heath care. Mogg was right that it will take time to see Brexit take effect but it might not be the way he meant it