Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

The funny thing is that Frost is not even popular or trusted in England. I've seen Daily Mail readers repeatedly attack him for being an unelected bureaucrat and a spoofer.

Virtually the only audience for his nonsense / lies are the DUP, loyalist paramilitaries and the ERG.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

The funny thing is that Frost is not even popular or trusted in England. I've seen Daily Mail readers repeatedly attack him for being an unelected bureaucrat and a spoofer.

Virtually the only audience for his nonsense / lies are the DUP, loyalist paramilitaries and the ERG.

But the DUP, ERG, and the Loyalist would never read the IT.

fly_agaric

Sam Russell wrote: »

But the DUP, ERG, and the Loyalist would never read the IT.

Yeah, they are not the audience. It is UK government propaganda and also [imo] a threat of sorts aimed at the govt. here delivered by media.
This UK govt. seem to be excellent at that (media management, use of the media to carry water for them).

serfboard

fly_agaric wrote: »

This UK govt. seem to be excellent at that (media management, use of the media to carry water for them).

Perhaps the only area they excel in.

Not difficult though when you’re doing the bidding of the oligarchs who own the media.

fly_agaric

serfboard wrote: »

Perhaps the only area they excel in.

Not difficult though when you’re doing the bidding of the oligarchs who own the media.

Yes, can't think of much else they do so well + it's more than the government-friendly press in the UK IMO.
They don't have that relationship with the Irish Times or RTE for example, but I think UK govt. manage to deliver their messages via these extremely well also. e.g. the entire framing of this disagreement with the EU as a petty "sausage war". The media (everywhere) loved that I think for obvious reasons + ran full speed with it.

Strazdas

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yeah, they are not the audience. It is UK government propaganda and also [imo] a threat of sorts aimed at the govt. here delivered by media.
This UK govt. seem to be excellent at that (media management, use of the media to carry water for them).

An interesting point though is that even English Brexiteers are not buying into said propaganda. They've no interest in Northern Ireland or in the Protocol and they don't like Frost.

So if Johnson and Frost think they can use NI and the Protocol as a potential vote winner, they may be barking up the wrong tree. People in England don't even care about any of it (Why would they? It doesn't affect them).

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

An interesting point though is that even English Brexiteers are not buying into said propaganda. They've no interest in Northern Ireland or in the Protocol and they don't like Frost.

So if Johnson and Frost think they can use NI and the Protocol as a potential vote winner, they may be barking up the wrong tree. People in England don't even care about any of it (Why would they? It doesn't affect them).

That its NI or the NIP is irrelevant. You think any Brexiteers actually understand the issues?

Its simply something to focus on, the get people angry about.

Seth Brundle

McGiver wrote: »

Why did IT agreed to print this drivel?

This is basically Johnsonist Tory propaganda, containing threats and hints of blackmail on top.

Absolutely utter drivel. I think now that Mr, erm Lord, Frost is actually not an idiot but a malicious agent.

Paper never refuses ink!
The IT needs big stories to make itself relevant in a shrinking industry!

druss

McGiver wrote: »

Why did IT agreed to print this drivel?

This is basically Johnsonist Tory propaganda, containing threats and hints of blackmail on top.

Absolutely utter drivel. I think now that Mr, erm Lord, Frost is actually not an idiot but a malicious agent.

Why not print it? See the reaction it got? See the similar reaction to UK Ambassador trying to sell it on radio?

Frost and Johnson seem to have a misguided belief that they have that "Chief Wiggum charm" and that they just need to get to the right people.

- if they could only have got to talk to Merkel or Macron, instead of Barnier in negotiations, then that "more practical" Brexit could be achieved.
- if it wasn't for Varadkar and Coveney blocking them, then the Irish people would clearly be more appreciative of their place in the world and stop "overplaying their hand".

Sure, the intention is propaganda, but has it worked and was it ever likely to work?

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

That its NI or the NIP is irrelevant. You think any Brexiteers actually understand the issues?

Its simply something to focus on, the get people angry about.

But does it hold any currency? You can see how English Brexiteers would be angry over immigration or vaccines or fishermen or whatever, but it will be very hard for them to get worked up about trading arrangements between GB and Northern Ireland - they couldn't give a toss about NI normally or things like shortages on supermarket shelves in the province, it's something that doesn't impact on England.

It's possible that Frost and Johnson are overestimating the level of interest in this.

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

But does it hold any currency? You can see how English Brexiteers would be angry over immigration or vaccines or fishermen or whatever, but it will be very hard for them to get worked up about trading arrangements between GB and Northern Ireland - they couldn't give a toss about NI normally or things like shortages on supermarket shelves in the province, it's something that doesn't impact on England.

It's possible that Frost and Johnson are overestimating the level of interest in this.

They aren't interested. Its just EU are terrible, unfair, punishment for voting to leave etc.

Its a easy way to blame others on the reality of Brexit.

Brexit would have been brilliant only for those pesky kids (EU). "Its not our fault its those horrible Germans who are just getting back for two world wars and one world cup"

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

They aren't interested. Its just EU are terrible, unfair, punishment for voting to leave etc.

Its a easy way to blame others on the reality of Brexit.

Brexit would have been brilliant only for those pesky kids (EU). "Its not our fault its those horrible Germans who are just getting back for two world wars and one world cup"

For sure, but my own hunch is that it is not 'sexy' enough for English Brexiteers - it's happening in Northern Ireland, a remote part of the union they never give a moment's thought to.

Even reading social media, it seems to be NI loyalists who are most energised by the Protocol.

fash

fly_agaric wrote: »

I think UK govt. manage to deliver their messages via these extremely well also. e.g. the entire framing of this disagreement with the EU as a petty "sausage war". The media (everywhere) loved that I think for obvious reasons + ran full speed with it.

It a standard Johnson trope: bendy bananas; prawn cocktail crisps; packaged kippers - now sausages. You'll note a theme.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

A genuine question: Did anyone actually stop to ask if anyone in Northern Ireland actually eats English sausages? I'm not aware of them being remotely popular there. Northern Ireland doesn't tend to go much outside Northern Ireland for that kind of thing.
The only issue might be relatively obscure stuff in M&S etc.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

It a standard Johnson trope: bendy bananas; prawn cocktail crisps; packaged kippers - now sausages. You'll note a theme.

Kind of ironic that Brexit was spun on the back of the EU's supposedly draconian, unavoidable, rigid rules relating to those products ... and then these lads turn around and say "we never thought the EU would be so inflexible." :rolleyes:

Strazdas

Frost has given a new interview to the Sunday Telegraph - more of the same, heavily criticising the EU, saying the Protocol has to go etc etc

Goodness knows what he's up to. He's definitely spoiling for a fight with the union anyway.

FuzzyThinking

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

A genuine question: Did anyone actually stop to ask if anyone in Northern Ireland actually eats English sausages? I'm not aware of them being remotely popular there. Northern Ireland doesn't tend to go much outside Northern Ireland for that kind of thing.
The only issue might be relatively obscure stuff in M&S etc.

It's always worth remembering that the largest ethnic minority in Ireland is English.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Strazdas wrote: »

Frost has given a new interview to the Sunday Telegraph - more of the same, heavily criticising the EU, saying the Protocol has to go etc etc

Goodness knows what he's up to. He's definitely spoiling for a fight with the union anyway.

He won’t get a fight. He’ll just be ignored until a more sensible government eventually comes along.

The EU also doesn’t really have to care about what the U.K. public or media thinks anymore either. They no longer vote in EU elections. The U.K. government no longer plays any role within EU institutions, nor does it have any votes in them. There are no British MEPs.

The U.K. voted to exit the EU and have nothing more to do with it and that’s what it got. The NI protocol is really non negotiable. If they want to breech it, good luck getting a US or EU trade deal anytime soon.

So I don’t really think Frost playing to a domestic audience matters a damn in Europe anymore. It’s an interesting insight into his politics, but that’s all it is.

fash

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

He won’t get a fight. He’ll just be ignored until a more sensible government eventually comes along.

The EU also doesn’t really have to care about what the U.K. public or media thinks anymore either. They no longer vote in EU elections. The U.K. government no longer plays any role within EU institutions, nor does it have any votes in them. There are no British MEPs.

The U.K. voted to exit the EU and have nothing more to do with it and that’s what it got. The NI protocol is really non negotiable. If they want to breech it, good luck getting a US or EU trade deal anytime soon.

So I don’t really think Frost playing to a domestic audience matters a damn in Europe anymore. It’s an interesting insight into his politics, but that’s all it is.

The UK doesn't need to breach it (maybe just slightly breach it) - it merely needs to make it unstable, disliked and hence "unworkable" - and pump divisions in Northern Ireland, to try to get the population of NI to vote against it in 2024.
So it is something Ireland needs to worry about.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

The UK doesn't need to breach it (maybe just slightly breach it) - it merely needs to make it unstable, disliked and hence "unworkable" - and pump divisions in Northern Ireland, to try to get the population of NI to vote against it in 2024.
So it is something Ireland needs to worry about.

If that's the intention, then Frost & Lewis are stupider than their opinion piece looks. Early signs are that the vast majority of the population of NI are happy enough with the protocol, companies are adjusting their supply chains and/or stealing business from GB, voluntarily choosing a closer integration with the RoI/EU, and have very, very little trust in the current UK government.

The EU have played a good hand: offered a meaningless extension to defuse the Unionist agitation for the time being, and given extra time for the sensible people of NI to continue to consolidate their position as a region that is less and less dependent on GB - much the same as the RoI.

If Frost & Lewis are up to anything, one could almost believe that they're deliberately egging on the DUP to provoke a shift towards moderate/non-aligned politics in NI, with a view to creating the conditions in which the SoS for NI might reasonably conclude that a different ballot might relieve GB of its most troublesome province. Perhaps some carefully targeted post-pandemic cuts in public spending might help nudge that agenda ... [/conspiratorial thoughts]

farmerval

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yeah, they are not the audience. It is UK government propaganda and also [imo] a threat of sorts aimed at the govt. here delivered by media.
This UK govt. seem to be excellent at that (media management, use of the media to carry water for them).

Lots of the Government are either formerly employed by the Tory press, or married to a journalist or employ former Tory press people as special advisors. It looks like a complete revolving door between the Tory press and the Tory party.

fash

CelticRambler wrote: »

If that's the intention, then Frost & Lewis are stupider than their opinion piece looks. Early signs are that the vast majority of the population of NI are happy enough with the protocol,

.

"Vast" is probably now an overstatement - and the UK government is only getting started.

This might be comparing the protocol to "everything else" where different people have different views on what the alternative might be - but Brexiters already won a dishonest game based on not describing the alternative - and I'm sure they'd like to try again.

fly_agaric

Strazdas wrote: »

An interesting point though is that even English Brexiteers are not buying into said propaganda. They've no interest in Northern Ireland or in the Protocol and they don't like Frost.

So if Johnson and Frost think they can use NI and the Protocol as a potential vote winner, they may be barking up the wrong tree. People in England don't even care about any of it (Why would they? It doesn't affect them).

That's true (trade rows are quite boring anyway, unless you are already interested in politics...).
More people (outside of those taking an interest) will row in behind UK govt. if/when the EU responds to try & force the issue.
Might be wrong, but I don't think the EU can just wait this UK government out if it refuses to implement the agreement.
Similar to the rows over AZ vaccines IMO, it will only become a "patriotic" thing (engaging their base) when there's a sterner EU response to what the UK is doing.
The narratives are all in place.

J Mysterio

Coveney hits back to say UK not showing 'generosity'.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coveney-says-britain-showing-no-generosity-in-protocol-row-with-eu-1.4611178?mode=amp

I think Martin also had something to say beforehand.

Ireland won't just allow this type of propoganda without countering it.

CelticRambler

J Mysterio wrote: »

Coveney hits back to say UK not showing 'generosity'.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coveney-says-britain-showing-no-generosity-in-protocol-row-with-eu-1.4611178?mode=amp

The EU was also still being refused access to data on trade into the North, he added.

Could that be because the UK doesn't want the EU to know just how well things are going? Can't very well rant and rave about the Protocol if the data shows that trade is the same - or better - than in previous years. :rolleyes:

druss

CelticRambler wrote: »

Could that be because the UK doesn't want the EU to know just how well things are going? Can't very well rant and rave about the Protocol if the data shows that trade is the same - or better - than in previous years. :rolleyes:

Or the rest of the Uk. The empty shelves thing is increasing as a hot topic elsewhere in UK. If there is data showing that one part of the Union is faring better...

Maxface

Ireland or the Irish Government should be promoting trade with Northern Ireland and their uniqueness in that they have access or at least a much less unfettered access to a much bigger market than the rest of their Union. Changing the narrative from being unequal or restricted to more of an opportunity for Northern Ireland to increase its competitiveness and increase jobs and boost their economy.

lawred2

Maxface wrote: »

Ireland or the Irish Government should be promoting trade with Northern Ireland and their uniqueness in that they have access or at least a much less unfettered access to a much bigger market than the rest of their Union. Changing the narrative from being unequal or restricted to more of an opportunity for Northern Ireland to increase its competitiveness and increase jobs and boost their economy.

So should Sinn Fein

Sam Russell

lawred2 wrote: »

Maxface wrote: »

Ireland or the Irish Government should be promoting trade with Northern Ireland and their uniqueness in that they have access or at least a much less unfettered access to a much bigger market than the rest of their Union. Changing the narrative from being unequal or restricted to more of an opportunity for Northern Ireland to increase its competitiveness and increase jobs and boost their economy.

So should Sinn Fein

and the EU.

looksee

I don't think the EU as an entity could do something like that as it would be interfering with a sovereign country.