Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

fly_agaric

forgottenhills wrote: »

I agree with what you say except for the last paragraph. What you are forgetting is that the trade balance for goods is very much in the EUs favour so it will take an awful lot for EU countries to suspend the TCA. You don't end deals with your big customers unless really, really forced to. So the EU will huff and puff... Remember that most people in the EU won't care less what happens on the Irish UK border.

Yes the "TCA" does suit the EU and it has been ratified by the EU parliament now. However the integrity/functioning of the Single Market and the Customs Union is I think far more important to the EU/most of the member states (bar perhaps Ireland) than any of the TCA, the Withdrawal Agreement, the survival of the NI "open border" and indeed Ireland's very continuation as a full member of Single Market and Customs Union. So if UKs continuous bad faith and lies + the situation in NI starts to imperil this core aspect of the EU in future, something will give.

yagan

VinLieger wrote: »

Im seething with anger over this

https://www.thejournal.ie/loyalists-to-westminster-committee-5441327-May2021/

Whatever about the rampant entitled idiocy they all spew from the mouths, like exploring Ireland and the UK being in a seperate customs union, the idea that paramilitary leaders can meet openly with government reps is just disgusting. As someone mentioned in the journal comments imagine if the headline was "Leaders from the IRA, INLA and Continuity IRA are meeting directly with TDs".

With the double hypocrisy of the recent Loyalists para formal withdrawal of support for the Belfast Agreement.

ancapailldorcha

schmoo2k wrote: »

At least their anger appears to be directed in the correct direction.

I don't mind exploring ROI joining the UK "global" market - could have a simple vote on the entire Island? (I suspect I know how that would go)

What "global market"? The term does not appear in the link. This sounds like more Brexiter fantasy.

Leroy42

Who or what are they going to launch violence against?

There is no occupation, no foreign body?

Are they threatening the PM himself, the parliament, the boats?

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

Who or what are they going to launch violence against?

There is no occupation, no foreign body?

Are they threatening the PM himself, the parliament, the boats?

I think they have already named Leo Varadka.

I suspect they will blame Ireland as a legitimate target - which it is not of course.

The Raging Bile Duct

Leroy42 wrote: »

Who or what are they going to launch violence against?

There is no occupation, no foreign body?

Are they threatening the PM himself, the parliament, the boats?

They are threatening the Republic.

Seth Brundle

What is noticable is that they seem to believe that the NIP is between the UK and Ireland and that Coveney or the Taoiseach can resolve any issues with it.
They (conveniently) forget that the agreement is not between Ireland and the UK.
Anyhow, it is a complete disgrace that the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee in Westminster only appears to be listening to a union of terrorists and not to the vast majority of the NI population who are against the threatening behaviour held by the LCC.

dogbert27

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

They are threatening the Republic.

Our journalists should be smart and highlight that a paramilitary organisation is threatening the European Union and the UK government are inviting them around for a cup of tea and a chat about it.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Who or what are they going to launch violence against?

Traditionally, they would find a Catholic family living in or near a Loyalist claimed area and burn them out of their home.


If more serious action is needed, shooting up a Catholic funeral or a Catholic bar is always popular.

These are not people with any sort of grasp on international relations.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Traditionally, they would find a Catholic family living in or near a Loyalist claimed area and burn them out of their home.


If more serious action is needed, shooting up a Catholic funeral or a Catholic bar is always popular.

These are not people with any sort of grasp on international relations.

Are you talking about the Loyalist terrorists or the British Army.

Remember, today Johnson apologised for the unlawful killing of ten innocent victims of the Parachute Regiment in Ballymurphy fifty years ago. The same regiment killed 13 innocent victims in Derry on Bloody Sunday, which Cameron made a grovelling apology for - but that was where that ended.

I doubt that they can tell the difference anyway.

Enzokk

VinLieger wrote: »

Im seething with anger over this

https://www.thejournal.ie/loyalists-to-westminster-committee-5441327-May2021/

Whatever about the rampant entitled idiocy they all spew from the mouths, like exploring Ireland and the UK being in a seperate customs union, the idea that paramilitary leaders can meet openly with government reps is just disgusting. As someone mentioned in the journal comments imagine if the headline was "Leaders from the IRA, INLA and Continuity IRA are meeting directly with TDs".

Love the solution in their eyes,

He said that reports from Michel Barnier’s recently published book about Brexit negotiations said customs checks at EU ports on goods coming from Ireland had been suggested at one stage – meaning Ireland would join a UK customs union. “That’s surely that’s the option that has to be explored,” Campbell said.

He said that “political goodwill” was needed, rather than what he called an EU desire to punish Britain, and “a mischievous Irish desire to reignite strident nationalism”.

Campbell claimed that there had been good relations with the Irish Government up until the latter part of Brexit negotiations, whereafter he said that “Dublin has closed down.”

So we need to to leave the EU because of a vote that happened in the UK. I don't know what to think of people that thinks this is a solution. They should maybe have thought of this and told the DUP before the vote? Or were they too busy falling in line with that thinking to even consider the problems? I know the answer to that, doubt they will ever want to apply the critical thinking as it may hurt their tiny brains.

As for the relationship with Ireland and the negotiations, maybe it was around the time that Johnson and Frost took over that things soured. Seems to line up and I think that will dovetail with the timeline.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Who or what are they going to launch violence against?

There is no occupation, no foreign body?

Are they threatening the PM himself, the parliament, the boats?

It will be Catholics that will suffer and be targeted. They are too stupid to realize the real people who are responsible.

CelticRambler

VinLieger wrote: »

Im seething with anger over this

https://www.thejournal.ie/loyalists-to-westminster-committee-5441327-May2021/

Ummmm ...

Campbell told the Committee: “I do get the sense that the Irish Government misrepresented the potential impact of an Irish Sea border on the unionist community in Northern Ireland.

Is he saying that Unionists were counting on the Irish Government to represent their interests? I thought Unionists were on the British side of the fence?

Well, regardless of which side of the fence the Unionists are hoping to find the greenest grass, I have a sneaking suspicion that there'll be more than just the Irish delegation in Brussels who'll take a dim view of Johnson's undisguised drift towards the Erdogan/Jong-Un model of democracy ... and there are still a lot of "teething troubles" with the TCA to be sorted out.

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

So we need to to leave the EU because of a vote that happened in the UK. I don't know what to think of people that thinks this is a solution. They should maybe have thought of this and told the DUP before the vote? Or were they too busy falling in line with that thinking to even consider the problems? I know the answer to that, doubt they will ever want to apply the critical thinking as it may hurt their tiny brains.

It's not merely leave the EU- it's leave the EU to be dictated to and controlled by the British. Is one expected to believe that outside the EU the UK would take Irish concerns into consideration in relation to customs, markets, SPS rules or trade agreements?

It will be Catholics that will suffer and be targeted. They are too stupid to realize the real people who are responsible.

Sure they know- but an apartheid regime in NI where Catholics are untermenschen is what they want - what's so wrong with killing a few Catholics/ Jews / Gypsies anyway?

Strazdas

fash wrote: »

It's not merely leave the EU- it's leave the EU to be dictated to and controlled by the British. Is one expected to believe that outside the EU the UK would take Irish concerns into consideration in relation to customs, markets, SPS rules or trade agreements?

This shows the absolute nuttiness of the Irexit position. Leave the EU....to come back into the sphere of influence of English nationalists, many of whom strongly dislike and resent Ireland and consider it a nuisance.

schmoo2k

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What "global market"? The term does not appear in the link. This sounds like more Brexiter fantasy.

That was my point, we could "explore it", but the result would be a lot of laughter!

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ummmm ...


Is he saying that Unionists were counting on the Irish Government to represent their interests? I thought Unionists were on the British side of the fence?

Well, regardless of which side of the fence the Unionists are hoping to find the greenest grass, I have a sneaking suspicion that there'll be more than just the Irish delegation in Brussels who'll take a dim view of Johnson's undisguised drift towards the Erdogan/Jong-Un model of democracy ... and there are still a lot of "teething troubles" with the TCA to be sorted out.

My initial response was to say that Unionists are on the Unionist side of the fence but the prospect of their electing some with Poots' antediluvian views suggests that even that may not be true.

I don't think it's the green side of the fence they want, it's their ideological opposition to the NIP coupled with their ideological need to create and foment the circumstances necessitating the NIP that's causing their woes.

joeysoap

Poots was on Stephen Nolan last night. Not impressive to put it mildly. I don't think 'reasonable' loyalists will buy in.

Igotadose

Is there a site tracking the 'current state' of Brexit? Besides the banging on about the NI Protocol, I can't imagine things are going well for fishermen, food industry, hauliers.

Nothing on independent or bbc... like there's a news blackout about Brexit with all the attention directed to the headbangers in NI. NI's actually a small problem for Brexit imo. Losing big chunks of the City's business will matter much more.

Sam Russell

I have not seen this reported generally.

British visitors requiring official documentation for visits.

Brexit: UK travellers to France and Spain may need proof of accommodation

People in France hosting non-EU nationals need to submit £26 form to their town hall as part of post-Brexit changes

According to the French government’s website, anyone in France hosting non-EU nationals is expected to complete an attestation d’accueil (accommodation certificate) form and submit it for approval to their town hall, a process taking up to a month.

Once stamped, the form, which costs €30 (£26) and requires supporting documents such as proof of address, income and right of residence, must then be forwarded to the guest so they can show it at the border, where officials are entitled to ask for it.
In Spain, residents hosting non-EU friends or family are expected to apply to the national police, with similar supporting documentation, for a carta de invitación (letter of invitation) costing €74.

However, accounts of mistreatment of EU citizens in the UK suggest the chance of tougher border checks in the future cannot be excluded and the British government has advised travellers, including those staying with friends or family, to err on the side of caution.

I can see this becoming a screaming headline in one of the Brexit Party red tops.

Seth Brundle

"It wasn't our fault"

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1395293461788700672

redcup342

Sam Russell wrote: »

I have not seen this reported generally.

British visitors requiring official documentation for visits.



I can see this becoming a screaming headline in one of the Brexit Party red tops.

A. Won't apply to UK Citizens who have rights under the withdrawal agreement

B. If you think the Spanish were ever paying 74 euros to go and fill out some paperwork becuase they wanted someone to stay over ......

C. The only time it's ever really enforced is if Spanish immigration finds you were hosting illegal immigrants.

D. If people (Eu or Non EU) are staying in Rented accomodation it requires a tourist license and registration of their ID and information with the Policia National is mandatory.

Bit of a storm in a teacup I would say.

Sam Russell

redcup342 wrote: »

A. Won't apply to UK Citizens who have rights under the withdrawal agreement

B. If you think the Spanish were ever paying 74 euros to go and fill out some paperwork becuase they wanted someone to stay over ......

C. The only time it's ever really enforced is if Spanish immigration finds you were hosting illegal immigrants.

D. If people (Eu or Non EU) are staying in Rented accomodation it requires a tourist license and registration of their ID and information with the Policia National is mandatory.

Bit of a storm in a teacup I would say.

I think the basis of the story is that this kind of retaliation could well occur if the UK side start playing silly buggers wrt to EU citizens - which they are currently.

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

"It wasn't our fault"

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1395293461788700672

It is actually quite astonishing the line that Frost has taken recently. Far from the Brexit saviour, that played hardball with Barnier and got the deal done when all seemed lost, it appears that Frost himself now admits he did a terrible job and urged the PM to sign a deal based on nothing more than hopes and expectations!

Seth Brundle

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is actually quite astonishing the line that Frost has taken recently. Far from the Brexit saviour, that played hardball with Barnier and got the deal done when all seemed lost, it appears that Frost himself now admits he did a terrible job and urged the PM to sign a deal based on nothing more than hopes and expectations!

But he and the UK government are effectively telling the world that they are stupid and signed an important agreement blindly.
I don't get the approach - surely they can't be that stupid?

Nody

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But he and the UK government are effectively telling the world that they are stupid and signed an important agreement blindly.
I don't get the approach - surely they can't be that stupid?

This is when the Einstein qoute comes to mind about human stupidity; yes, yes they can be. The reason is simple actually; they don't care about UK in the sense of longer term but simply about their own next couple of months ahead basically. Why worry about policy impact in the 5 to 10 year view when you can get a favorable headline right now to promote yourself? So what if UK gets a bad deal? By the time the consequences come around they will already be in a new job...

ancapailldorcha

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But he and the UK government are effectively telling the world that they are stupid and signed an important agreement blindly.
I don't get the approach - surely they can't be that stupid?

I don't think they're that stupid. I think they're contorting themselves to dodge responsibility. The problem is that while previous PM's loved to blame Brussels while taking credit for things like the abolition of roaming charges, going so far as to actually leave the EU on the back of a narrative or regaining sovereignty now eliminates Brussels as a scapegoat.

Take the Australia deal for instance. It's been presented by the BBC as a threat to farmers here. Nobody's blaming Brussels for it. It's squarely the preserve of London and Canberra. This is why I say that blaming the EU isn't really an option for most government gaffes going forward.

Akrasia

Seth Brundle wrote: »

"It wasn't our fault"

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1395293461788700672

Absolutely pathetic!

I promise my kids a flying carpet for christmas, out of the blue, kids never even asked for one but when I offered them one and said 'Who wants a magic carpet?? About half of them said yes!! and are all excited about it now (they're not the brightest kids in their class)

I then go to the Persian rug stall down at the market, negotiate a price for a carpet, the best carpet he has, (that he hasn't already sold to some Norwegian or Swiss guy) getting told repeatedly that the carpet cannot and never will be able to magically fly. We haggle for what seems like years, he keeps saying it costs £2000, I keep offering him £400, he keeps saying No, I hold my nerve, knowing he's gonna crack sooner rather than later

Christmas eve arrives and I manage to haggle him down to £1999 so I buy the carpet, agreeing that it won't fly, and agree to a payment plan cause it's christmas eve and I have to have something to bring home to the kids for christmas

I bring it home to the kids for christmas, half of them don't want to talk to me anymore for some reason, they're probably just moaners cause they hate christmas. The other half spend the day sitting on it and calling out magic words trying to make it fly. Eventually they ask 'Dad, when is it going to start flying'
Soon kids, I say, it's just waiting for the opportunity to arise

Weeks later, the kids have grown bored of the magic carpet but the first bill for the payment plan has come through the door and I head back down to the Rug guy at the market complaining that the kids are cross at me for buying a non flying carpet and that I demand that the merchant sell me a real flying carpet and takes back the old one.

The Persian tells me that nobody promised the kids a flying carpet except for me at which point I threaten to keep the old carpet and refuse to pay for it because the rug salesman sold it to me while I was under duress, so it's not a valid contract.

And that's why i'm banned from that guys market stall and now need to walk all the way across town to get my Kangaroo embossed welcome matt set.


This is what David Frost has actually just said.
(more or less)

ambro25

redcup342 wrote: »

A. Won't apply to UK Citizens who have rights under the withdrawal agreement

B. If you think the Spanish were ever paying 74 euros to go and fill out some paperwork becuase they wanted someone to stay over ......

C. The only time it's ever really enforced is if Spanish immigration finds you were hosting illegal immigrants.

D. If people (Eu or Non EU) are staying in Rented accomodation it requires a tourist license and registration of their ID and information with the Policia National is mandatory.

Bit of a storm in a teacup I would say.

A. strawman, they're not "UK travellers to France", they're "UK nationals residing in France"
B. irrelevant
C. irrelevant
D. irrelevant

It's standard French law for all TPNs, which long pre-dates Brexit, and Brits are now TPNs.

If you live in France and wish to host UK friends or relatives, either comply with those requirements and send the attestation to your UK friends or relatives before they travel, or don't.

If your UK friends or relatives get controlled at the point of entry (Chunnel, airport, etc.) and don't have that attestation (and the associated evidence of return travel, insurance, earnings, etc.), they can get refused entry and turned around there and then.

If your UK friends or relatives do not get controlled at the point of entry (somehow) but get found at your place, and you didn't seek that attestation <etc.>, they are illegal immigrants and you are hosting them. Ooops, indeed.

I would also say, based on longstanding familiarity with French authorities, that the likelihood of your UK friends or relatives getting controlled, and of French customs officials scrutinizing the attestation and the associated evidence of return travel, insurance, earnings, etc. ever more zealously, increases proportionally to the UK acting maggot with EU27 visitors.

Of course, this is all outside the context of a hotel/accommodation booking. But the days of hoping in the car or on a flight in the UK to go visit friends and family in France on a whim, are gone irrespective.

View

Seth Brundle wrote: »

"It wasn't our fault"

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1395293461788700672

That’s the equivalent of:

“I sent all my money to obviously dodgy scammers on the internet because I thought they’d send it back to me, but it isn’t my fault that I am now broke”.

20silkcut

View wrote: »

That’s the equivalent of:

“I sent all my money to obviously dodgy scammers on the internet because I thought they’d send it back to me, but it isn’t my fault that I am now broke”.

I know a real case a friend of mine who got scammed on the internet in the hopes of landing a woman and despite repeated warnings from myself and all his friends and family he spent several thousands and followed it all the way through to the very end. Even went through a few no shows waiting at Dublin airport.
He spent a final €1200 just to get confirmation that he was being scammed even after accepting the game was up It was utterly incredible.
But such is human nature.
Belief and pig headedness are powerful forces.
Brexit is just a scam too. It’s undeliverable for a diverse economy and society like Britain.
No way can they sacrifice so much of their industry and society to get such puny trade deals. In the longer term brexit will be stalled and fudged out of existence and forgotten. When they get tired of owning the libs and the woke.