When will it all end?

Lundstram

Think these threads have become a little pointless now. We have posters on the "anti-lockdown" side throwing around facts and common sense with wild abandon but then we have the other side, "pro-lockdown", typing any old guff to refute facts because they're so far into their narrative now that they can't be seen to back down. They've held this opinion for over a year now so they must see it through 'til the bitter end.

I know people in person, on various other social media and even respected journalists who have admitted they were wrong and that this has turned into an utter farce of epic proportions.

There's a small cohort of "pro-lockdowners" on this thread and others like it who are very much out numbered now but their stance must be rigorously upheld no matter what. I refuse to believe some of them actually agree with what they're posting on these threads.

The below is taken from one of the top thanked posts today, this is a summation of our current situation. Quite remarakable that a relaxation of restrictions can be argued against with the below in mind. The only thing that's surging is testing of healthy people. The median age of cases today was 32. That should be celebrated, not an excuse to keep the longest lockdown in Europe going for another while.

So ending March with
-more tests
-less cases
-more vaccinated
-less hospitalised

And the disease is surging.

Graham

So one post you disagree with scientifically proves to your satisfaction that everyone that might disagree with you is "any old guff".

You realise that doesn't come across as the most reasoned rebuttal?

Bit cynical

The worst outcome would be that the virus can't be eliminated but regardless various restrictions are kept in place indefinitely in a futile attempt to eradicate it. In this scenario, the answer to the OP's question would be that it doesn't end.

Scotty #

Lundstram wrote: »

The below is taken from one of the top thanked posts today, this is a summation of our current situation.

You misunderstand what's going on.

Here's another summation of our current situation, one with actual fact's and figures, it's our Saturday to Saturday 7 day avg since Christmas...

02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|+280%
16/01/2021|4,150|-34%
23/01/2021|2,343|-44%
30/01/2021|1,303|-44%
06/02/2021|1,035|-21%
13/02/2021|893|-14%
20/02/2021|797|-11%
27/02/2021|657|-18%
06/03/2021|531|-19%
13/03/2021|526|-1%
20/03/2021|496|-6%
27/03/2021|586|+18%

That +18% is not pessimism, it's not doom and gloom, it's not pro-lockdown, it's the reality of where we're at. Hospitalisations and ICU are also up today. Hopefully a temporary uptrend and things will start to descend again quickly but up none the less.

Can you really see NPHET recommend easing restrictions in the current situation? Do you honestly believe yourself, when case numbers are rising, hospitalisations are rising, and ICU numbers are rising that it's a good time to ease restrictions?

Tazz T

Scotty # wrote: »

You misunderstand what's going on.

Here's another summation of our current situation, one with actual fact's and figures, it's our Saturday to Saturday 7 day avg since Christmas...

02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|+280%
16/01/2021|4,150|-34%
23/01/2021|2,343|-44%
30/01/2021|1,303|-44%
06/02/2021|1,035|-21%
13/02/2021|893|-14%
20/02/2021|797|-11%
27/02/2021|657|-18%
06/03/2021|531|-19%
13/03/2021|526|-1%
20/03/2021|496|-6%
27/03/2021|586|+18%

That +18% is not pessimism, it's not doom and gloom, it's not pro-lockdown, it's the reality of where we're at. Hospitalisations and ICU are also up today. Hopefully a temporary uptrend and things will start to descend again quickly but up none the less.

Can you really see NPHET recommend easing restrictions in the current situation? Do you honestly believe yourself, when case numbers are rising, hospitalisations are rising, and ICU numbers are rising that it's a good time to ease restrictions?

It's a blip - a last gasp of a virus that is done. It's actually a good sign. It's the end of it. Go back and check some epidemiology records from the past.

This is done in May.

Graham

Tazz T wrote: »

It's a blip - a last gasp of a virus that is done. It's actually a good sign. It's the end of it. Go back and check some epidemiology records from the past.

This is done in May.

I see quite a few of our EU neighbours suffering a rather unpleasant 'blip' too.

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

You misunderstand what's going on.

Here's another summation of our current situation, one with actual fact's and figures, it's our Saturday to Saturday 7 day avg since Christmas...

02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|+280%
16/01/2021|4,150|-34%
23/01/2021|2,343|-44%
30/01/2021|1,303|-44%
06/02/2021|1,035|-21%
13/02/2021|893|-14%
20/02/2021|797|-11%
27/02/2021|657|-18%
06/03/2021|531|-19%
13/03/2021|526|-1%
20/03/2021|496|-6%
27/03/2021|586|+18%

That +18% is not pessimism, it's not doom and gloom, it's not pro-lockdown, it's the reality of where we're at. Hospitalisations and ICU are also up today. Hopefully a temporary uptrend and things will start to descend again quickly but up none the less.

Can you really see NPHET recommend easing restrictions in the current situation? Do you honestly believe yourself, when case numbers are rising, hospitalisations are rising, and ICU numbers are rising that it's a good time to ease restrictions?

Doesnt matter what restrictions NPHET recommend. Its what the government decide to do. If the government dont start loosening the restrictions there will be upheaval. People are getting fed up now and lots of people arent adhering to the restrictions. The 5km should be scrapped. Should be intercounty for the month of April and then travel wherever you want in the country come May. Kids and adults should be allowed to have none contact training. Golf courses and tennis clubs should be open. More people should be allowed to meet. If peopled dont want restrictions lifted then stay at home and let other people get on with there lives

Scotty #

Deleted User wrote: »

Doesnt matter what restrictions NPHET recommend. Its what the government decide to do. If the government dont start loosening the restrictions there will be upheaval. People are getting fed up now and lots of people arent adhering to the restrictions.

Yes, we saw the signs of that when 100,000, 100 people turned up for the protest! :rolleyes:

Tazz T

Graham wrote: »

I see quite a few of our EU neighbours suffering a rather unpleasant 'blip' too.

The B117 3rd wave that we had at xmas?

Graham

Tazz T wrote: »

The B117 3rd wave that we had at xmas?

Probably, we're either ahead of the game or working towards our next wave.

Tazz T

There will be no fourth wave

We are ahead. We were exposed to the b117 first.

Again go back to the historical precedents.

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

Yes, we saw the signs of that when 100,000, 100 people turned up for the protest! :rolleyes:

Head to any coastal town at the weekend and you will see loads of people out and about meeting friends and familys in large groups .People out enjoying the good weather.Having take away pints and coffees. Large amount of people going against restrictions

Graham

Tazz T wrote: »

There will be no fourth wave

We are ahead. We were exposed to the b117 first.

I had hoped you were right but

Deleted User wrote: »

Head to any coastal town at the weekend and you will see loads of people out and about meeting friends and familys in large groups

What could possibly go wrong.

How did that 'blip' come about?

Kunta Kinte

Deleted User wrote: »

Doesnt matter what restrictions NPHET recommend. Its what the government decide to do. If the government dont start loosening the restrictions there will be upheaval. People are getting fed up now and lots of people arent adhering to the restrictions. The 5km should be scrapped. Should be intercounty for the month of April and then travel wherever you want in the country come May. Kids and adults should be allowed to have none contact training. Golf courses and tennis clubs should be open. More people should be allowed to meet. If peopled dont want restrictions lifted then stay at home and let other people get on with there lives

And most importantly of all open the pubs now. Priorities dear boy. I know you will agree with me on that.......:)

Tazz T

Graham wrote: »

I had hoped you were right but



What could possibly go wrong.

How did that 'blip' come about?

Standard historical epidemiology.

Loads of reasons for this that would take a scientific paper to explain.

Graham

Tazz T wrote: »

Standard historical epidemiology.

Loads of reasons for this that would take a scientific paper to explain.

I hope you're right, perhaps we've developed some sort of collective immunity to b117 in the last few weeks.

We'll find out over the coming weeks.

I'm not particularly optimistic tbh.

Kunta Kinte

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

And most importantly of all open the pubs now. Priorities dear boy. I know you will agree with me on that.......:)

100% open them like they did last summer . No point in having a staycation if the pubs aint open

Tazz T

Graham wrote: »

I hope you're right, perhaps we've developed some sort of collective immunity to b117 in the last few weeks.

We'll find out over the coming weeks.

I'm not particularly optimistic tbh.

I'm so tempted to extrapolate that graph based on my past experience but I'd be utterly shocked for figures to go beyond a thousand and if they did it would be with negligible deaths. Blip now 700 tops and blip at Xmas when they boost the oldies. There'll be nothing during the summer months with seasonality and vaxes.

The only way this is not done is a mad variant emerging and the chances of that happening at current levels here are minimal. I don't understand what NYPHET are up to at all. I'm pretty sure they know this

Kunta Kinte

Deleted User wrote: »

100% open them like they did last summer . No point in having a staycation if the pubs aint open

Now you`re getting it.:) Open the gastro pubs like they did last summer and launch a major crack down on the shebeens. Speaking of which is that invite still on?

Kunta Kinte

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Now you`re getting it.:) Open the pubs and launch a major crack down on the shebeens. Speaking of which is that invite still on?

What have you got against shebeens? Invite is still on. You just have to figure out where the shebeen is

Kunta Kinte

Deleted User wrote: »

What have you got against shebeens? Invite is still on. You just have to figure out where the shebeen is

A few words in the right ears and it could be done dear boy.:) Is it worth it though?

Kunta Kinte

Deleted User wrote: »

If your talking about the shebeen then yes its worth it. Gets me away from the wife and kids for a few hours

Words can`t express how delighted I am for you. Anyway time to go to bed. When the shebeen is eventually closed down try not to be too upset.;) Sweet dreams dear boy.:)

GazzaL

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Now you`re getting it.:) Open the gastro pubs like they did last summer and launch a major crack down on the shebeens. Speaking of which is that invite still on?

There's a lot of money being invested in shebeens. People who were forced off building sites are paying their mortgages by building shebeens.

M_Murphy57

Scotty # wrote: »

You misunderstand what's going on.

Here's another summation of our current situation, one with actual fact's and figures, it's our Saturday to Saturday 7 day avg since Christmas...

02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|+280%
16/01/2021|4,150|-34%
23/01/2021|2,343|-44%
30/01/2021|1,303|-44%
06/02/2021|1,035|-21%
13/02/2021|893|-14%
20/02/2021|797|-11%
27/02/2021|657|-18%
06/03/2021|531|-19%
13/03/2021|526|-1%
20/03/2021|496|-6%
27/03/2021|586|+18%

That +18% is not pessimism, it's not doom and gloom, it's not pro-lockdown, it's the reality of where we're at. Hospitalisations and ICU are also up today. Hopefully a temporary uptrend and things will start to descend again quickly but up none the less.

Can you really see NPHET recommend easing restrictions in the current situation? Do you honestly believe yourself, when case numbers are rising, hospitalisations are rising, and ICU numbers are rising that it's a good time to ease restrictions?

How many of the +18% are the asymptomatic that presented themselves at pop up centres this week?

People speculated the pop up centres were intended to drive "cases" and would be used against us and here we are. Leaks last night of another 2 months of this **** because some clowns couldnt resist a free test.


Average age of 32 in yesterdays positives, 1 death = 2 more months of walking around in circles, being stopped by gardai asked where you are walking to , and still that useless thin lipped fool MM has no plan for how this ends.

Always_Running

Scotty # wrote: »

You misunderstand what's going on.

Here's another summation of our current situation, one with actual fact's and figures, it's our Saturday to Saturday 7 day avg since Christmas...

02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|+280%
16/01/2021|4,150|-34%
23/01/2021|2,343|-44%
30/01/2021|1,303|-44%
06/02/2021|1,035|-21%
13/02/2021|893|-14%
20/02/2021|797|-11%
27/02/2021|657|-18%
06/03/2021|531|-19%
13/03/2021|526|-1%
20/03/2021|496|-6%
27/03/2021|586|+18%

That +18% is not pessimism, it's not doom and gloom, it's not pro-lockdown, it's the reality of where we're at. Hospitalisations and ICU are also up today. Hopefully a temporary uptrend and things will start to descend again quickly but up none the less.

Can you really see NPHET recommend easing restrictions in the current situation? Do you honestly believe yourself, when case numbers are rising, hospitalisations are rising, and ICU numbers are rising that it's a good time to ease restrictions?

As of 8pm In hospital 313 in ICU 70. The same time last Monday those numbers was 342 and 80.

When talking about a rise in weekly case numbers one can't ignore the testing numbers especially when we had close to 30,000 more tests than the week before.

Lundstram

Posters still using case numbers to justify their madness? A useless metric.

A median age of 32 for cases announced yesterday is fantastic news and should be celebrated. Most of them won’t even know they’ve got it until a test.

But yeah, let’s follow the science and keep level 5 lockdown in place.

Now that’s madness.

the kelt

Always_Running wrote: »

As of 8pm In hospital 313 in ICU 70. The same time last Monday those numbers was 342 and 80.

When talking about a rise in weekly case numbers one can't ignore the testing numbers especially when we had close to 30,000 more tests than the week before.

The problem is once people have a simple view of cases numbers being their bible and getting their daily fix from the overlords the idea of case numbers playing a significantly lesser role in how we assess this virus is hard to take.

You’re right though, the idea of a spike following the opening of new test centres where we actively went looking for people is significant, that and the amount of testing also.

But more importantly a year later cases are no longer the ultimate barometer for hospitalisations. Take a look at last May when we were opening up compared to last week. (Found this in another thread this morning thought it was interesting when obsessing with case numbers)

2020
On the week leading to May 19th (13-19):
932 positive swabs
36818 swabs in total
2.5% 7 days positivity rate
786 new cases confirmed (1009 actually, but on the 14th of May 223 extra cases where added that were not notified before)
81 deaths
56 people in ICU (up to the 16th, it’s a pain to find historical data)
688 people in hospital - 390 confirmed, 298 suspected
No vaccines (of course)

2021
This week (24-30):
4,249 positive swabs
125,846 swabs in total
3.4% 7 days positivity rate
4,065 new cases confirmed
81 deaths
70 people in ICU
331 people in hospital
~800k vaccines

So roughly 4 times the amount of testing, roughly 4 times the amount of swabs, roughly 4 times the amount of cases and a higher positivity rate (obviously)

Yet a few more in icu but HALF the amount of people in hospitals!

The obsession with case numbers needs to stop, as you can see. We have a better understanding of the virus and vaccine yet people still obsessing like it’s March 2020.

Lundstram

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We just have to be patient and wait another few weeks. Again.

“Hey, you over there with no job since March 2020, be patient, just a little longer”

“Yours sincerely, guy who hasn’t missed a pay cheque”.

Lundstram

Lundstram wrote: »

“Hey, you over there with no job since March 2020, be patient, just a little longer”

“Yours sincerely, guy who hasn’t missed a pay cheque”.

"Hey you there, stay at home indefinitely.

Yours sincerely, media, politicians and health advisors who get to travel to work and have social interactions on a daily basis."

stefanovich

It's really becoming a joke now. I was pro lockdown initially but it's getting ridiculous now. Our restrictions are so severe because our health system is so weak. We are all going to pay for the economic damage too.

Remember next time the government "gives" you something, it's not their money to begin with.