schmittel wrote: » it's hardly breaking news.Just 8,000 houses built last year offered for sale on open market, says CIF
The federation, which represents most builders, says that the State acquired at least 4,400 new homes for social housing, while investment funds bought 95 per cent of the 3,644 apartments completed here last year.
Geuze wrote: » Another severe recession, following the very bad 2020 recession?
Empty_Space wrote: » There is a lot of terrible information in this forum. 2021 is the year that brings home a lot of harsh realities. As soon as we put the corona virus behind us and governments turn off the life support propping up not just housing markets but entire economies, things are going to get ugly very quickly. Ireland is fairly irrelevant in the whole thing. I keep hearing all this noise about supply, like it matters.... Ireland simply follows along with bigger economies. However, we are moving away from globalization and in the changing system I suspect Ireland wont do so well. What do you think is going to happen when massively overvalued stocks are let fall and zombie companies can finally die. Don't stress your brains too much now.
HotDudeLife wrote: » Finally a voice of reason, there really is head in the sand stuff going on, completely ignoring the damage to the global economy and the fact that a huge % of businesses will go under once the government support is withdrawn. Once people are comfortable to put their properties up on the market and coupled with the new builds this year we will see some supply increase. It will be interesting to see if given the recent havoc in Balbriggan, Blanchardstown and Clonee if prices in these areas plummet due to "white flight" (for want of a better term), this happened in the US and was a huge impact to prices in a negative way.
Ozark707 wrote: » ...I wonder how these figures are included in some of the other stats added here...:rolleyes:
HotDudeLife wrote: » Technically there was a deep global recession in 2020. It wasn't felt as bad as previous due to the government literally printing trillions just to keep it on life support, this can't last forever. Soon as the monetary painkiller wears off most sectors will tank.
Belt wrote: » I was considering Clonee but have completely disregarded it now following the events of the last week.
fliball123 wrote: » Head in the sand..I dont think so there is feck all supply, the ECB have put protective actions in place so that banks dont fall into the same issues as 08. Have you seen how much Irish bank accounts have accumalated alone this year in savings. We have just seen the end of a year where brexit and corona where the 2 main indicators to the doomsdaysers that property would tank..Roll on 2021 and Brexit has been agreed and a vaccine for corona found. So now the doomsdayers are going to blame a few scuffles in a few areas around north county Dublin .... Dude you need to take your own head out of the sand
Timing belt wrote: » Government's have been undertaking QE for the past 10 years (5years in Europe) this is not going to be switched off over night and will need at least 10 years to be phased out. The real issue will start when governments roll over their debt because if the central bank is not buying at least half of it then there will be less demand which means the yield will rise and countries will have a higher debt servicing cost. Obviously if we see inflation then this mitigates against this issue. The difference with this recession and the 08 is the governments/central banks acted in time as opposed to sitting back and letting the house of cards collapse like in 08.
HotDudeLife wrote: » You're not alone, it was always a concern for those unaware or not from the area but this pretty much confirms what was local knowledge but never reported in the media. Plenty saw the writing on the wall and cashed out at the top.
HotDudeLife wrote: » Correct, however, much of that QE never made it to the average joes pockets. It was thrown into the stock market by the institutions.
HotDudeLife wrote: » This time, we have QE on steroids along with money that is keeping the average joe above water. When this is stripped away, businesses will crumble and plenty who intended to buy won't be able to draw down. Many industries are immune to this of course, however, the demographics of people in these industries likely already own property to begin with and the hysteria of increased savings will not imply to people with huge deposits ready to enter the property market, quite the contrary in fact.
HotDudeLife wrote: » Your main counter is "there is feck all supply", you do know we had less supply near the bottom of the market in 2012 right? We are in the eye of the storm of a depression, market corrections are natural, this is inflated and will crash soon, by how much is anyone's guess. Once the governments withdraw PUP and business supports many jobs will go and thousands of mortgages will not be drawn down. Whilst i do not think the property market will drop as much as last time and do actually think the new builds will not drop by much (due to government schemes), it's not out there to predict a 10-15% drop on 2nd hand property within the 300-400k range as most FTBs will be on government schemes to buy and therefore be competing for new builds. " So now the doomsdayers are going to blame a few scuffles in a few areas around north county Dublin ". This comment alone tells me how naive and uninformed you are, ask one in these areas and you will hear horror stories over the years. The only reason you don't hear about it is due to the media suppressing it, sure just look at all the chaos all over social media, calls to kill a garda, white middle aged women assaulted, irish natives attacked due to the color of their skin. Not a peep in any of the media outlets. It's only a matter of when the prices drop, if i had to put money on it i would predict around Sept/October 2021 we will see the real start of it and further drops going into 2022.
bubblypop wrote: » That's a little OTT. Crime happens everywhere
fliball123 wrote: » Your like a lot of people on here this time last year saying exactly the same thing. Well some went as crazy as saying a 50% drop
Empty_Space wrote: » You are in for a big surprise. Yes, its taken longer then most people expect, but the only thing holding us up now is coronas. What a strange situation.
Ozark707 wrote: If there is a sizeable % of a new development that is purchased by Council and/or some fund then it puts a certain slant on the 'places flying off the market' narrative that seems to be out there.
Cyrus wrote: any evidence to support this very bold claim?
schmittel wrote: » If at all! Whilst everybody agrees supply is currently tight, I don't think many spend any time considering why supply is tight, which is a fairly critical factor.
Timing belt wrote: » The stats I posted are from property sales so if a property was not sold it will not be included. If you compare the no of apartments completed in 2019 3530 with the no of apartments sold that year 689 you are left with 2800 apartments that were never sold and probably went straight to rent.
fago wrote: » If it's not a one off build, the local authority's planning system can be really useful assuming applications are online. Either if the house has been extended it gives a good view of the layout, site etc., or if it hasn't been and neighbours have it's almost as useful. Sometimes it also gives you an insight into frayed relationships based on the objections registered.
amacca wrote: » Here are some things I do if I'm genuinely interested in a property (not all and not necessarily in the below order)...tbh to make a purchase you need as much info as possible imo Disclaimer : there may be other less onerous things you can do. 1) look carefully at the property site the property is advertised on and save a copy of all the detail. 2) look to see if the property is advertised on other sites including the aucioneer(s) own site to see if there are any discrepancies in asking price/listing date etc (occasionally this yields some interesting info)..save all this info too 3) Google the exact property address (or variants) if possible and see if it was listed before on other sites and if so for how many times and how long and what kind of price movements in the asking price there were (can be very illuminating sometimes)....also look up any ads for the property in local newspapers or national depending on the kind of property and see if other auctioneers had the property previously and didnt shift it 4) Take more than one drive by of the area and its surroundings and walk around to get a feel for the area if possbile....try to talk to locals casually about the area but take what they say with a grain of salt....you can get some fantastic info and also headbangers regardless of age so you have to try assess the person giving you the info 5) Googlemaps is actually quite useful for a plan view of site area/boundaries etc (not the legal ones obviously - just whats physically there) 6) The property price register can at times give you a good feel for what kind of property turnover is in the area in the recent past, if selling and asking prices are in line etc etc....although again Id take some selling prices with a pinch of salt, Im convinced one or two houses in an area I was looking at recently sold for more than is down on the register with money changing hands under the counter but in general it will give you a lot to go on. 7) The county development plan can give you an idea what way adjoining land has been classified, what sort of planning permissions are being given in the area and to whom (if you know how to read between the lines sometimes) ...again to a very limited extent but it can be interesting to see who applied for what and what was granted and give you an idea what might be built on soon how likely permission is to be given for certain types of development and what might remain undeveloped for the next 20years or more etc........again limited and things can change especially the way things are at the moment but when everything is chugging along at a relatively stable predictable rate it can be well worth your time to take a look. 8) you can request folios in the PRA/land registry in the fourcourts if you can pinpoint the property on a map (for a fiver now I think)....if there was something I was interested in the past I used to just walk in and point and ask for the details, maybe you can do that online now.....you can get details there of who owns it, and when it changed hands in the past legally without having to fork over hundreds to a solicitor....if im mildly interested in something and I might possibly maybe probably not buy it but definitely not interested enough to contact a solicitor this can give you the legal info of ownership etc 9) talk to auctioneer and request viewing/tour...listen carefully to everything he /she says and note it down as soon afterwards as you can so you have a reference more of a nose for anything that smells a bit fishy later on if indeed anything does 10) if you are serious your solicitor will also do searches as part of buying process but its good not to be green...dont depend on them to be as thorough as you would (their remit is only the legal stuff really but I always ask them regarding future developments just to see what they say etc (some can be quite clued in a give you that useful little nugget of info....a properly independant surveyer will also go through the house if there are structural issues etc you are worried about(and cost you more the more independant they are and then frighten the **** out of you with all the faults problems to justify their fee sometimes)...but tbh I usually run a mile if its structural, not worth the hassle in my book. Of course all of the above can be short circuited if you live in the area and know the score or have access to trustworthy people that live in the area and will give you the info and just to add, you are talking to an amateur here, Im sure there are better ways to do it.
schmittel wrote: » Of course. And the majority of the properties sold were bought by non household buyers. Yet there is a perception that the demands is predominantly FTB or buyers trading up to bigger property. If these non household buyers stop buying and some of them start selling things will look very different very quickly.
fliball123 wrote: » And if more people/Reits/companies see Irish rentals as a good investment with a solid ROI more properties may be bought for rent. People still have to live some where and before 2020 (which we can all agree is an anomaly due to corona) we had a fairly hefty net inward immigration into Ireland and our births have been out pacing deaths for the last 100 years. People still need to live somewhere.
HotDudeLife wrote: » It's only a matter of when the prices drop, if i had to put money on it i would predict around Sept/October 2021 we will see the real start of it and further drops going into 2022.
Belt wrote: » Maybe you didnt see the videos circulating of the aftermath of the shooting but I dont want to live in Clonee badly enough that I would risk it
Timing belt wrote: » It's a solid investment for institutional investors as it has a high yield with minimal risk. I don't see institutional investors selling existing properties in a low interest rate environment as they will not be able to find a similar risk free asset with a better yield. If anything I think we will see a lot more of investments from institutional investors as they chase yield.
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