2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

timmyntc

awec wrote: »

What percentage of our annual budget is public sector pay and salaries?

Pensions was the key word there you chose to ignore.
We spent 8bn on public pensions last year alone - thats 1/10th of total expenditure by the state.

https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/

awec

timmyntc wrote: »

Pensions was the key word there you chose to ignore.
We spent 8bn on public pensions last year alone - thats 1/10th of total expenditure by the state.

https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/

I actually meant to say pension instead of salaries.

timmyntc

awec wrote: »

I actually meant to say pension instead of salaries.

No worries - unfortunately there is no clear breakdown of public sector salaries, they are included in the per-sector spends.

No doubt they are quite significant though - like the HSE budget must have a big black hole of administrative salaries.

cnocbui

liam7831 wrote: »

I didn't know you had bitcoin ...

Now you know. If you had been on the right crypto forum, you would have known sooner.

Up another few hundred percent in the last 24 hours. Just as well as I have just had a quote of €1500-€2000 to survey the boundary of the property I am selling.

Property in this country is like gold in terms of the on-costs and financial frictions built into the system to acquire and dispose. I'm going to have to do some serious number crunching on whether going all in on investments and just renting from here on.

PropQueries

In a follow up to what a previous poster said about the vacant Limerick homes yesterday, the Irish Examiner has given their view that “It will open the door for the kind of change most of those who support Ireland’s conservative parties dread.”.

Fairly strong on the FG housing record as well.

Link to the Irish Examiner View article here: https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/ourview/arid-40264745.html

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

In a follow up to what a previous poster said about the vacant Limerick homes yesterday, the Irish Examiner has given their view that “It will open the door for the kind of change most of those who support Ireland’s conservative parties dread.”.

Fairly strong on the FG housing record as well.

Link to the Irish Examiner View article here: https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/ourview/arid-40264745.html

Lots of people like to say "but but but the council" conveniently leaving aside the fact FG heavily centralized lots of traditional local authority powers

As one of DIT's lecturers in economics, local development and planning described -

This department has become highly intrusive and controlling. In addition, it has moved planning applications for housing schemes over 100 units for An Bord Pleanála to decide upon.

The Local Government Reform Act 2014 was supposedly a mechanism to transfer powers back to local government. What we have seen since 2014 is a gradual and systematic withdrawal of key powers from local authorities – and their centralisation, instead.

The attitude of government towards local democracy and local government has been nothing short of shameful.

And there just has not been any evidence that these centralised policies work, particularly on housing.

https://www.dublininquirer.com/2018/12/19/the-central-government-is-treating-councils-shamefully

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

In a follow up to what a previous poster said about the vacant Limerick homes yesterday, the Irish Examiner has given their view that “It will open the door for the kind of change most of those who support Ireland’s conservative parties dread.â€.

The last sentence in that article sums it up very well

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

The last sentence in that article sums it up very well

And the first line “Neglect of vacant properties is stupid”.

When even the editors of a newspaper like the Irish Examiner feel they have to resort to words like “stupid” to explain a governments policy, there’s something seriously, seriously wrong.

I think the conservative class have finally realised who’s going to be footing the bill for all of this

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Well all I will say is they have learned from Austerity it did not have the desired affect, they thought by cutting and upping taxes they would see more money in their pockets. The cuts to the PS did not work due to the increments system so while they might of taken money away year on year money was flowing back into the PS anyway. Then the upping of taxes did not garner much more as people stopped working OT as it was not worth it and people stayed on the dole as with the welfare rates a person was only marginally financially better getting out of the bed. Throw in a lot of people just legged it when they seen there take home pay getting smaller so they got more taxes from a smaller pool of workers and overall income tax did not bring in more. The law of diminishing returns kicked them squarely in the pants.

I think the 40billion added last year and this year will (or may have already) started a property bubble. That is one problem I see that may have developed. The problem with bubbles is they can really only be seen in hindsight. Inflation has always been a problem and I cant see wage going up so it will cause problems if it goes up in any meaningful way. Fortunately the likes of the ECB are big enough to be able to dictate this and they know that if they do ramp up rates then a lot of countries are going to be blown out of the water. I dont think they will do that already they have lost the UK and others could follow if its no longer attractive to stay in the EU.

If debt doesn’t matter, why don’t the eastern EU members of the EU borrow right up to our debt per capita level and invest in infrastructure etc. and make themselves the most advanced countries on the planet in the 21st century?

They obviously have the leeway given their current debt levels compared to ours.

My thinking is that they don’t buy into the current narrative that this permanent deficit spending can last much longer IMO.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

If debt doesn’t matter, why don’t the eastern EU members of the EU borrow right up to our debt per capita level and invest in infrastructure etc. and make themselves the most advanced countries on the planet in the 21st century?

They obviously have the leeway given their current debt levels compared to ours.

My thinking is that they don’t buy into the current narrative that this permanent deficit spending can last much longer IMO.

i for one welcome our new eastern european overlords :pac:

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

If debt doesn’t matter, why don’t the eastern EU members of the EU borrow right up to our debt per capita level and invest in infrastructure etc. and make themselves the most advanced countries on the planet in the 21st century?

They obviously have the leeway given their current debt levels compared to ours.

My thinking is that they don’t buy into the current narrative that this permanent deficit spending can last much longer IMO.

The deficit spending has only been re-introduced with Covid we had a budget surplus in 2019 can any of the Eastern Euro countries claim they didnt have to borrow for Covid. The likes of the UK borrowed 400billion alone for covid.

You also have to take our GDP into account

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/covid-19-has-countries-borrowing-money-just-about-as-quickly-as-they-can-print-it/

We dont look to bad in comparison to others throughout the world with regards to what we borrowed for corona or spending as much throughout the pandemic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52450958

Honestly do you think other countries were immune to Covid it was borrowing for a fecking pandemic not for infrastructure or anything else quite possibly this is a once in a life time event that has happened. Your thinking is very very narrow and with a hidden agenda behind it.

Debt does not matter it gets rolled over and paid back over time. If it did mater we would not of been able to borrow 40 Billion to pay for Covid at a very low interest rate and that despite having a debt of 200Billion already. So that in itself is proof enough that the debt didnt matter...So I would take evidence of what we just borrowed over your opinion.

As for what other Euro countries borrow for or dont borrow for that is there decision and has absolutely no bearing on what Ireland owes, borrows or uses the money for.

The market seems nuts right now, I hope it calms down a bit in a year...

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

The deficit spending has only been re-introduced with Covid we had a budget surplus in 2019 can any of the Eastern Euro countries claim they didnt have to borrow for Covid. The likes of the UK borrowed 400billion alone for covid.

You also have to take our GDP into account

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/covid-19-has-countries-borrowing-money-just-about-as-quickly-as-they-can-print-it/

We dont look to bad in comparison to others throughout the world with regards to what we borrowed for corona or spending as much throughout the pandemic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52450958

Honestly do you think other countries were immune to Covid it was borrowing for a fecking pandemic not for infrastructure or anything else quite possibly this is a once in a life time event that has happened. Your thinking is very very narrow and with a hidden agenda behind it.

Debt does not matter it gets rolled over and paid back over time. If it did mater we would not of been able to borrow 40 Billion to pay for Covid at a very low interest rate and that despite having a debt of 200Billion already. So that in itself is proof enough that the debt didnt matter...So I would take evidence of what we just borrowed over your opinion.

As for what other Euro countries borrow for or dont borrow for that is there decision and has absolutely no bearing on what Ireland owes, borrows or uses the money for.

I wonder how much our “GDP” will fall by if it’s no longer tax advantageous for the multinationals to hold their IP, intangibles etc. in Ireland?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder how much our “GDP” will fall by if it’s no longer tax advantageous for the multinationals to hold their IP, intangibles etc. in Ireland?

Most of it moved a few years back didn’t it ?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Most of it moved a few years back didn’t it ?

I had a search on this last time you mentioned it and concluded that very little IP moved back to the US or wherever. Where did you hear/read that most of the multinational IP was repatriated?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder how much our “GDP” will fall by if it’s no longer tax advantageous for the multinationals to hold their IP, intangibles etc. in Ireland?

I wonder how much our GDP will grow by when the Corona smoke clears and the penny drops that we are now the only native English speaking country in the EU after Brexit, your right so many intangibles, GDP is as likely to go up as it is down in the future. Only you and Nostradamus know the truth do

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I had a search on this last time you mentioned it and concluded that very little IP moved back to the US or wherever. Where did you hear/read that most of the multinational IP was repatriated?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-to-end-use-of-double-irish-as-tax-loophole-set-to-close-1.4128174%3fmode=amp

Ireland bowed to international pressure five years ago and agreed to close the scheme, which was popular with technology and pharmaceutical businesses, but companies that already used it were given until the end of 2020 to end the practice.

Most companies acted well ahead of that deadline, replacing their double Irish arrangements with new structures that have the same benefits, said Ed Kleinbard, a tax law professor at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Google’s move was unusual in that it suggested the company had acted later than others, he added.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Lots of people like to say "but but but the council" conveniently leaving aside the fact FG heavily centralized lots of traditional local authority powers

As one of DIT's lecturers in economics, local development and planning described -



https://www.dublininquirer.com/2018/12/19/the-central-government-is-treating-councils-shamefully

I don’t think I the competence or inclination to act is present whether it is at local level or centralised. You can have the best plans in the world and the biggest budget you want but if those in charge of execution are not up to the task....

mcsean2163

Thanks for the the twitter tip, rang the agent and discovered house is already sale agreed. It's been on the market since September!#@!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-homes-for-sale-now-at-lowest-level-in-over-a-decade-1.4486679?mode=amp

Apparently there were 15,500 second hand homes in sale in January?

I've been reading that the property situation has improved but when I do a search for all Ireland on myhome, I get 11,471 results. Does anyone know what I'm doing wrong?

wassie

Daft throws up a similar result - 12,078 actual dwellings, where as if you include sites it jumps to 15,288.

DataDude

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Thanks for the the twitter tip, rang the agent and discovered house is already sale agreed. It's been on the market since September!#@!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-homes-for-sale-now-at-lowest-level-in-over-a-decade-1.4486679?mode=amp

Apparently there were 15,500 second hand homes in sale in January?

I've been reading that the property situation has improved but when I do a search for all Ireland on myhome, I get 11,471 results. Does anyone know what I'm doing wrong?

Is the house you are referring to here the one in Silchester? I could have sworn that was advertised 3 weeks ago. Taken down. Then put up again yesterday? Strange if already sale agreed..

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

If debt doesn’t matter, why don’t the eastern EU members of the EU borrow right up to our debt per capita level and invest in infrastructure etc. and make themselves the most advanced countries on the planet in the 21st century?

They obviously have the leeway given their current debt levels compared to ours.

My thinking is that they don’t buy into the current narrative that this permanent deficit spending can last much longer IMO.

The Eastern European countries are scared of inflation making them uncompetitive. It’s not that long ago they had significant inflation which crippled their economies. Who knows maybe they are right only time will tell..we will hear a lot about inflation as they will compare this year to last year when there was deflation. All eyes will be on USA and if the rest of the world accepts its fiscal spending and doesn’t loose confidence in the Dollar.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-to-end-use-of-double-irish-as-tax-loophole-set-to-close-1.4128174%3fmode=amp

Did you actually read the whole article? I was asking specifically about intellectual property.

The "Double Irish" which was closed did not actually require the IP to be held in an Irish company. As the article confirms Google held their IP in Bermuda at the time.

The article also says:

Most companies acted well ahead of that deadline, replacing their double Irish arrangements with new structures that have the same benefits..

What are those new structures?

According to a report from the IMF last year, one popular new avoidance arrangement involved companies injecting intellectual property (IP) into new subsidiaries in Ireland, known as IP onshoring.

Rather than most of the MNC IP having been removed from Ireland 5 years ago, as you claim, we have seen an increase in IP being held here. Seamus Coffey explained why:

Thus, the taxable income of the Irish operating company will move from being reduced by “renting” the IP and making annual royalty payments for the use of the IP to being reduced by “buying” the IP and claiming capital allowances each year based on the cost of acquiring and maintaining the IP.

Any good tax haven worth the name has more than one scheme. Whilst the "Double Irish" has been closed, the "Green Jersey" is alive and well and thus we have more IP held in Ireland now than we did 5 years ago.

mcsean2163

DataDude wrote: »

Is the house you are referring to here the one in Silchester? I could have sworn that was advertised 3 weeks ago. Taken down. Then put up again yesterday? Strange if already sale agreed..

No, another one in the locale, slightly more pricey, would have left us very stretched but wife was saying dream home. Anyway, not to be.

Cal4567

Hubertj wrote: »

I don’t think I the competence or inclination to act is present whether it is at local level or centralised. You can have the best plans in the world and the biggest budget you want but if those in charge of execution are not up to the task....

Agree 100%. It is easy for us to criticize individuals we don't actually know but this is not something that has just surfaced over night. I may be criticized for such a sweeping statement but I would be concerned with the type of individual I see in significant roles in Councils. The average standard of councillor is also poor.

On reflection I am really not that surprised with those who work in the centralised system we have that they want to retain/take back control.

There has always been tension between central government and local councils. It has added to the dysfunction. Now more evident than ever.

The 2008 mess cost country around 44 billions
We are near this digits already
That how much Covid cost
Troika EMF austerity that what happened after.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Did you actually read the whole article? I was asking specifically about intellectual property.

The "Double Irish" which was closed did not actually require the IP to be held in an Irish company. As the article confirms Google held their IP in Bermuda at the time.

The article also says:



What are those new structures?



Rather than most of the MNC IP having been removed from Ireland 5 years ago, as you claim, we have seen an increase in IP being held here. Seamus Coffey explained why:



Any good tax haven worth the name has more than one scheme. Whilst the "Double Irish" has been closed, the "Green Jersey" is alive and well and thus we have more IP held in Ireland now than we did 5 years ago.

Yes but given your innate understanding of the tax code you’ll understand why the reason why google holding the ip in Bermuda was significant in the context of our tax regime and why them moving it from Bermuda back onshore is significant.

Facebook also onshored their IP

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/facebook-ip-move-highlights-irish-corporation-tax-risks-1.4446557%3fmode=amp

Where are you seeing IP levels have increased ?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Yes but given your innate understanding of the tax code you’ll understand why the reason why google holding the ip in Bermuda was significant in the context of our tax regime and why them moving it from Bermuda back onshore is significant.

I don't need an innate understanding of the tax code to understand that Google moving IP from Bermuda to the US is not a good example to give as an example of IP moving out of Ireland.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Facebook also onshored their IP

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/facebook-ip-move-highlights-irish-corporation-tax-risks-1.4446557%3fmode=amp

According to Coffey (and the TAXE Committee of the European Parliament) that IP was actually in the Cayman Islands, not Ireland. Articles suggesting otherwise look like lazy journalism.

Cyrus wrote: »

Where are you seeing IP levels have increased ?

The figures for capital allowances claimed against intangible assets in breakdown of corporation tax returns. They ballooned in 2015, and have continued to rise. 99% of this is claimed by MNCs.

Credit where it is due. It's actually a very clever scheme from our governments point of view.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I don't need an innate understanding of the tax code to understand that Google moving IP from Bermuda to the US is not a good example to give as an example of IP moving out of Ireland.

I think facebooks example from the last couple of months will clarify the issue with the Irish Times reporting three months ago:

“A move by Facebook to repatriate most of its intellectual property from the Republic back to the United States underscores risks to the State’s multinational-fuelled corporation tax haul as global tax-reform efforts move up a gear in 2021, according to economists.”

It also says that 77% of all corporation tax receipts came from multinationals in 2019 so I don’t see how the media are reporting that we will only lose €2 billion from these tax reforms.

I really don’t see where the funds will come from for the state to continue buying, leasing etc. homes past July this year IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/facebook-ip-move-highlights-irish-corporation-tax-risks-1.4446557

Edit: apologies, the article was already linked and both using it to back up opposing viewpoints