2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

RichardAnd

enricoh wrote: »

Just reading the local paper here and house prices are gone up 12% in louth in the last year.
And as mentioned earlier 12% of 25-40 year olds own their own house nationwide. There's gonna be some pressure on government coffers with people requiring social housing/ hap etc.

You'd think the government would be trying to make housing more affordable but the opposite seems to be the case to me! I don't get it at all tbh.

Does the state want private ownership of property to be ubiquitous? To me, if there is an agenda at all it, it would seem to be the ambition to drastically increase the percentage of the population who rent their accommodation. Why would this be so?

There are a lot of international wealth funds buying property of investing in the rental market here. Having a large base of renters would make these investments fruitful long-term. The state seems to be doing little to hinder this and much to aid it.

PommieBast

Villa05 wrote: »

Estate agents will use every trick in the book and innovate new ones. The know the supply demand dynamic and will maximise it to their benefit. With sale agreed before viewing they are building a database of that demand that is desperate and can be further exploited

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that proof of funds information is also being misused.

mcsean2163

It seems we are copying the US in our housing policy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EBb9zf_zWvU

CorkRed93

mcsean2163 wrote: »

It seems we are copying the US in our housing policy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EBb9zf_zWvU

Market is booming over there it aswell seems
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1380531924243001345

mcsean2163

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Market is booming over there it aswell seems
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1380531924243001345

Yes but the rising points out that funds are hoovering up housing stock by paying in cash and then r it back at extortionate prices. Just like the REITS and government here.

PropQueries

Interesting concern under the proposed Land Development Agency (LDA) Bill with a labour senator stating that: “the Phoenix Park and other heritage sites such as Newgrange are at risk of being sold off under new laws proposed by Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien.“.

Basically she believes the new LDA could CPO Phoenix Park and if it then decides not to use it could sell it on to a private buyer without government approval.

Sound insane? It’s Ireland so it’s entirely possible in a few years time and especially as we will have no wiggle room available for the next downturn IMO

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/department-denies-phoenix-park-and-heritage-sites-at-risk-of-being-sold-off-40290461.html

awec

The Pheonix Park CPO'd?

Yes, it sounds insane.

bunny_mac

Deleted User wrote: »

In terms of year built, when exactly is the period when the quality of built apartments took a nosedive?

2000-2008?

I've heard bad things about sound insulation etc, during a certain period of builds.

I wouldn't buy anything that was built after the 1980s.

I own an apartment in what was always regarded as a 'quality' development, built in the mid/late 90s and we've recently found out that whatever the apartments are supposed to have to prevent a fire in one apartment spreading out to the rest of the building (sorry, have no idea, am useless when it comes to retaining this kind of info) is missing from all the apartments. So now we have to fork out an eye-watering amount of money to get all of this fixed before we can get full insurance cover on the block.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

Sound insane? It’s Ireland so it’s entirely possible in a few years time and especially as we will have no wiggle room available for the next downturn IMO

Oddly enough some of the land in the people's park in Limerick was sold to private developers in the last bubble, site developed just in time for the crash

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/home-ownership-rises-across-state-as-numers-renting-falls-1.4533381

I thought people were saying that home ownership was in decline? CSO stats seem to contradict this narrative. Can any of the experts here clarify?

Cyrus

bunny_mac wrote: »

I wouldn't buy anything that was built after the 1980s.

I own an apartment in what was always regarded as a 'quality' development, built in the mid/late 90s and we've recently found out that whatever the apartments are supposed to have to prevent a fire in one apartment spreading out to the rest of the building (sorry, have no idea, am useless when it comes to retaining this kind of info) is missing from all the apartments. So now we have to fork out an eye-watering amount of money to get all of this fixed before we can get full insurance cover on the block.

I’d imagine that’s a very real issue for anything built in the 80s as well

Wanderer78

Hubertj wrote:

I thought people were saying that home ownership was in decline? CSO stats seem to contradict this narrative. Can any of the experts here clarify?

With rising uncertainty in property markets, particularly in the rental sector, increasing money supply from increasing savings and access to credit, and with serious supply issues, all leading to a significant increase in demand. And with a financial regulator somewhat asleep at the wheel, there's something groundhog day about all if this......

mcsean2163

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/home-ownership-rises-across-state-as-numers-renting-falls-1.4533381

I thought people were saying that home ownership was in decline? CSO stats seem to contradict this narrative. Can any of the experts here clarify?

Really interesting, I wonder if ownership has increased in the relevant age bracket.

The figures also point to a reduction in the number of people renting – in the capital and across Ireland. While the CSO said this decline may be overstated, the figures showed that almost 87,000 people left the rental market in Dublin in 2020

10,000 moved into council accomodation, meaning at least 67,000 left the Dublin rental sector. That's astonishing really that rents have remained high. It just goes to show what happens when REITs and council are working together.

Hubertj

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Really interesting, I wonder if ownership has increased in the relevant age bracket.

The figures also point to a reduction in the number of people renting – in the capital and across Ireland. While the CSO said this decline may be overstated, the figures showed that almost 87,000 people left the rental market in Dublin in 2020

10,000 moved into council accomodation, meaning at least 67,000 left the Dublin rental sector. That's astonishing really that rents have remained high. It just goes to show what happens when REITs and council are working together.

I wouldn’t blame some landlords for leaving units vacant when you read things like this and also consider the current prohibition on evictions. I presume the RTB (or PRTB) will have a large number of cases to address in the coming year.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/were-at-our-wits-end-couple-left-27000-out-of-pocket-as-tenant-hasnt-paid-rent-in-two-years-40278913.html

mcsean2163

Hubertj wrote: »

I wouldn’t blame some landlords for leaving units vacant when you read things like this and also consider the current prohibition on evictions. I presume the RTB (or PRTB) will have a large number of cases to address in the coming year.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/were-at-our-wits-end-couple-left-27000-out-of-pocket-as-tenant-hasnt-paid-rent-in-two-years-40278913.html

I don't get your point. If I was a landlord, I'd be very worried if I had a vacant property and 97,000 had left the private rental sector. I'm assuming a lot of those people must be university students?

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I wouldn’t blame some landlords for leaving units vacant when you read things like this and also consider the current prohibition on evictions. I presume the RTB (or PRTB) will have a large number of cases to address in the coming year.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/were-at-our-wits-end-couple-left-27000-out-of-pocket-as-tenant-hasnt-paid-rent-in-two-years-40278913.html

If they can afford to keep them vacant, they can afford a vacant property tax IMO

I also wouldn't be feeling too sorry for the very very small number of landlords who experience difficulties. They keep telling us it's a "business" and all businesses have debtors who don't pay.

Indeed, a significant percentage of the banks BTL mortgages are still non-performing after over 10 years. I believe 10 years is a bit longer than the 2 years this landlord has had to "endure" IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Indeed, a significant percentage of the banks BTL mortgages are still non-performing after over 10 years. I believe 10 years is a bit longer than the 2 years this landlord has had to "endure" IMO

Are you suggesting one deserves it because of the other?

mcsean2163

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/home-ownership-rises-across-state-as-numers-renting-falls-1.4533381

I thought people were saying that home ownership was in decline? CSO stats seem to contradict this narrative. Can any of the experts here clarify?

I wonder if students are inclusive in the renter figures, e.g. 3,167 https://www.ucd.ie/newsandopinion/news/2016/august/23/ucdopens354newcampusresidences/#:~:text=The%20new%20accommodation%20brings%20the,its%20ambitious%20Campus%20Development%20Plan. On UCD campus alone. Are they included?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Are you suggesting one deserves it because of the other?

Well, it does appear that landlords are treated and expect to be treated as a very "special" case in Ireland.

If a tenant doesn't pay, many of them go straight to the media seeking sympathy.

But, once they get into difficulty, they also have no problem using all the supports/forebearance offered by the state.

I also notice that this story related to Limerick. I wonder what percentage of rents in Limerick are directly related to various state schemes e.g. HAP etc.?

Without HAP etc., rents in Limerick would most likely be at most 50% of their current rate IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, it does appear that landlords are treated and expect to be treated as a very "special" case in Ireland.

If a tenant doesn't pay, many of them go straight to the media seeking sympathy.

But, once they get into difficulty, they also have no problem using all the supports/forebearance offered by the state.

1) 2 years is hardly 'straight to the media'
2) 'landlords' are not a single homogenous group.

PropQueries wrote: »

Without HAP etc., rents in Limerick would most likely be at most 50% of their current rate IMO

Your plucking of random numbers is getting tiresome IMO

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

1) 2 years is hardly 'straight to the media'
2) 'landlords' are not a single homogenous group.



Your plucking of random numbers is getting tiresome IMO

But "tenants" are?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

But "tenants" are?

No

It's one of the reasons 'particular demographics' is covered by the forum charter.

Friendly tip, go and read it.

Hubertj

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I don't get your point. If I was a landlord, I'd be very worried if I had a vacant property and 97,000 had left the private rental sector. I'm assuming a lot of those people must be university students?

You mentioned REITs which I presume is a reference to them leaving units vacant instead of lowering rents? I was pointing out other reasons why a landlord might leave a unit empty.
I would agree with you a lot of students clearly aren’t in Dublin..

PropQueries

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I don't get your point. If I was a landlord, I'd be very worried if I had a vacant property and 97,000 had left the private rental sector. I'm assuming a lot of those people must be university students?

There was an interesting article in the FT in January which queried the accuracy of the LFS in London during the pandemic. I assume the UK LFS is similar to the Irish version and an interesting read for any statistics people here if they could explain how it relates to potential problems in the Irish version as per the Irish Times article.

The link to the article in the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/def33cfe-45c7-4323-bd08-d4fc42051f09

Edit: If it's behind a paywall, you can google 'Coronavirus sparks exodus of foreign-born people from UK' and you may get one free article read from there.

woejus

PropQueries wrote: »

Edit: If it's behind a paywall, you can google 'Coronavirus sparks exodus of foreign-born people from UK' and you may get one free article read from there.

Archive.is / Archive.today is good for this if you don't have an FT subscription

https://archive.is/Dj70E

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I thought people were saying that home ownership was in decline? CSO stats seem to contradict this narrative. Can any of the experts here clarify?

How do you get a rise in homeownership of 70k in one year. The number of home sales last year was nowhere near 70k and they were not all FTB in a market dominated by reits and social housing

Maybe we should take it up with the public sector wizards at the CSO

Villa05

For FTB, check out the most recent podcast from

the explainer

Effects of covid on the property market

Guest Ronan Lyons

Gives a balanced approach and echo's some of the points raised here on both sides of the fence

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

For FTB, check out the most recent podcast from

the explainer

Effects of covid on the property market

Guest Ronan Lyons

Gives a balanced approach and echo's some of the points raised here on both sides of the fence

unsure if this is allowed, but shur

https://player.fm/series/the-explainer/has-the-pandemic-had-an-effect-on-housing-prices

everyone is ending up in trouble with our current approach, including property owners

RichardAnd

awec wrote: »

The Pheonix Park CPO'd?

Yes, it sounds insane.

I would not be in the least surprised to see at housing development built on land taken from the Phoenix Park if the current demand for accommodation does not abate.

As for Newgrange, well I don't see it's getting bulldozed anytime soon, but who knows, perhaps it will become the centre of an "innovative" development. A lot of insnae things I thought would never happen have happened in the last year...

Interested Observer

We can barely build accommodation on suitable sites without every NIMBY and local councillor objecting, DCC are an absolute lottery and will refuse things for any reason, the notion that housing would be built in the Phoenix Park is ludicrous. There are plenty of available sites in Dublin.