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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Comments

mcsean2163

Hubertj wrote: »

I wouldn’t blame some landlords for leaving units vacant when you read things like this and also consider the current prohibition on evictions. I presume the RTB (or PRTB) will have a large number of cases to address in the coming year.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/were-at-our-wits-end-couple-left-27000-out-of-pocket-as-tenant-hasnt-paid-rent-in-two-years-40278913.html

I don't get your point. If I was a landlord, I'd be very worried if I had a vacant property and 97,000 had left the private rental sector. I'm assuming a lot of those people must be university students?

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I wouldn’t blame some landlords for leaving units vacant when you read things like this and also consider the current prohibition on evictions. I presume the RTB (or PRTB) will have a large number of cases to address in the coming year.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/were-at-our-wits-end-couple-left-27000-out-of-pocket-as-tenant-hasnt-paid-rent-in-two-years-40278913.html

If they can afford to keep them vacant, they can afford a vacant property tax IMO

I also wouldn't be feeling too sorry for the very very small number of landlords who experience difficulties. They keep telling us it's a "business" and all businesses have debtors who don't pay.

Indeed, a significant percentage of the banks BTL mortgages are still non-performing after over 10 years. I believe 10 years is a bit longer than the 2 years this landlord has had to "endure" IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Indeed, a significant percentage of the banks BTL mortgages are still non-performing after over 10 years. I believe 10 years is a bit longer than the 2 years this landlord has had to "endure" IMO

Are you suggesting one deserves it because of the other?

mcsean2163

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/home-ownership-rises-across-state-as-numers-renting-falls-1.4533381

I thought people were saying that home ownership was in decline? CSO stats seem to contradict this narrative. Can any of the experts here clarify?

I wonder if students are inclusive in the renter figures, e.g. 3,167 https://www.ucd.ie/newsandopinion/news/2016/august/23/ucdopens354newcampusresidences/#:~:text=The%20new%20accommodation%20brings%20the,its%20ambitious%20Campus%20Development%20Plan. On UCD campus alone. Are they included?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Are you suggesting one deserves it because of the other?

Well, it does appear that landlords are treated and expect to be treated as a very "special" case in Ireland.

If a tenant doesn't pay, many of them go straight to the media seeking sympathy.

But, once they get into difficulty, they also have no problem using all the supports/forebearance offered by the state.

I also notice that this story related to Limerick. I wonder what percentage of rents in Limerick are directly related to various state schemes e.g. HAP etc.?

Without HAP etc., rents in Limerick would most likely be at most 50% of their current rate IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, it does appear that landlords are treated and expect to be treated as a very "special" case in Ireland.

If a tenant doesn't pay, many of them go straight to the media seeking sympathy.

But, once they get into difficulty, they also have no problem using all the supports/forebearance offered by the state.

1) 2 years is hardly 'straight to the media'
2) 'landlords' are not a single homogenous group.

PropQueries wrote: »

Without HAP etc., rents in Limerick would most likely be at most 50% of their current rate IMO

Your plucking of random numbers is getting tiresome IMO

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

1) 2 years is hardly 'straight to the media'
2) 'landlords' are not a single homogenous group.

Your plucking of random numbers is getting tiresome IMO

But "tenants" are?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

But "tenants" are?

No

It's one of the reasons 'particular demographics' is covered by the forum charter.

Friendly tip, go and read it.

Hubertj

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I don't get your point. If I was a landlord, I'd be very worried if I had a vacant property and 97,000 had left the private rental sector. I'm assuming a lot of those people must be university students?

You mentioned REITs which I presume is a reference to them leaving units vacant instead of lowering rents? I was pointing out other reasons why a landlord might leave a unit empty.
I would agree with you a lot of students clearly aren’t in Dublin..

PropQueries

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I don't get your point. If I was a landlord, I'd be very worried if I had a vacant property and 97,000 had left the private rental sector. I'm assuming a lot of those people must be university students?

There was an interesting article in the FT in January which queried the accuracy of the LFS in London during the pandemic. I assume the UK LFS is similar to the Irish version and an interesting read for any statistics people here if they could explain how it relates to potential problems in the Irish version as per the Irish Times article.

The link to the article in the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/def33cfe-45c7-4323-bd08-d4fc42051f09

Edit: If it's behind a paywall, you can google 'Coronavirus sparks exodus of foreign-born people from UK' and you may get one free article read from there.

woejus

PropQueries wrote: »

Edit: If it's behind a paywall, you can google 'Coronavirus sparks exodus of foreign-born people from UK' and you may get one free article read from there.

Archive.is / Archive.today is good for this if you don't have an FT subscription

https://archive.is/Dj70E

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I thought people were saying that home ownership was in decline? CSO stats seem to contradict this narrative. Can any of the experts here clarify?

How do you get a rise in homeownership of 70k in one year. The number of home sales last year was nowhere near 70k and they were not all FTB in a market dominated by reits and social housing

Maybe we should take it up with the public sector wizards at the CSO

Villa05

For FTB, check out the most recent podcast from

the explainer

Effects of covid on the property market

Guest Ronan Lyons

Gives a balanced approach and echo's some of the points raised here on both sides of the fence

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

For FTB, check out the most recent podcast from

the explainer

Effects of covid on the property market

Guest Ronan Lyons

Gives a balanced approach and echo's some of the points raised here on both sides of the fence

unsure if this is allowed, but shur

https://player.fm/series/the-explainer/has-the-pandemic-had-an-effect-on-housing-prices

everyone is ending up in trouble with our current approach, including property owners

RichardAnd

awec wrote: »

The Pheonix Park CPO'd?

Yes, it sounds insane.

I would not be in the least surprised to see at housing development built on land taken from the Phoenix Park if the current demand for accommodation does not abate.

As for Newgrange, well I don't see it's getting bulldozed anytime soon, but who knows, perhaps it will become the centre of an "innovative" development. A lot of insnae things I thought would never happen have happened in the last year...

[Deleted User]

We can barely build accommodation on suitable sites without every NIMBY and local councillor objecting, DCC are an absolute lottery and will refuse things for any reason, the notion that housing would be built in the Phoenix Park is ludicrous. There are plenty of available sites in Dublin.

MacronvFrugals

We wonder why people are so desperate to buy, imagining dealing with ghouls like this...

You had to flush the toilet to get the shower to turn on. And the taps were all leaking. She [the landlady] would say, ‘That’s how it is. If you don’t like it, leave’.

We told her the windows were broken and she would say, ‘That’s not a landlord problem’. She broke down our electricity bill and was telling us how much it was costing to run our laptops.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/ireland-s-generation-rent-after-12-years-renting-i-d-like-my-own-front-door-1.4532209

Wanderer78

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

We wonder why people are so desperate to buy, imagining dealing with ghouls like this...

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/ireland-s-generation-rent-after-12-years-renting-i-d-like-my-own-front-door-1.4532209

its important to remember, theres 'ghouls' on both sides of this fence, its a right mess

woejus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

We wonder why people are so desperate to buy, imagining dealing with ghouls like this...

Back of a fag packet Landlord / Tenancy registry

- Landlord ID - pseudonymous
1 ID for each landlord. Can check their previous rented properties, and lease rates, disputes. Letting without a licence - full revenue rubber glove treatment.

- Tenant ID - pseudonymous
1 for each tenant. A registered landlord in the system can check similar feedback / ratings for tenants. Can't get a lease without proving you're a decent tenant.

- Third party deposit escrow and adjudication.

Bang a "tax" on all rents to finance it. Fúck it, add it to the bleedin blockchain while we're at it.

Pussyhands

You'd get tired of the constant whinging from young ones about not being able to get a mortgage.

Fintan O'Toole has an article saying he got a mortgage 40 years ago aged 24 and it's not possible as a youngster today.

Firstly, he coupled up and his partner was a secondary school teacher, an exceptional job 40 years ago. The vast majority of 24 year olds today are single and don't have any aspirations of settling down right away. Settling down, buying a house and having kids aged 24 is not very common nowadays.

Secondly, Dublin in 1981 is not the same as Dublin in 2021. Why are journalists trying to make young people of today yearn for the "good old days" of the 1980's. How many young ones were getting good money working for Facebook in 1981?

Back in 1981 when you bought a house, you would expect to die at 72. Now, you can expect to die at 82.

I'm one of the youngsters facing into the housing market as it is today but I'm not feeling sorry for myself.

Wanderer78

Pussyhands wrote: »

You'd get tired of the constant whinging from young ones about not being able to get a mortgage.

Fintan O'Toole has an article saying he got a mortgage 40 years ago aged 24 and it's not possible as a youngster today.

Firstly, he coupled up and his partner was a secondary school teacher, an exceptional job 40 years ago. The vast majority of 24 year olds today are single and don't have any aspirations of settling down right away. Settling down, buying a house and having kids aged 24 is not very common nowadays.

Secondly, Dublin in 1981 is not the same as Dublin in 2021. Why are journalists trying to make young people of today yearn for the "good old days" of the 1980's. How many young ones were getting good money working for Facebook in 1981?

Back in 1981 when you bought a house, you would expect to die at 72. Now, you can expect to die at 82.

I'm one of the youngsters facing into the housing market as it is today but I'm not feeling sorry for myself.

once again, generational differences, particularly economically, cannot be compared, as there are radical differences under each set of conditions, many younger generations simply cannot repeat older generations methods of achieving these goals as we re currently experiencing economic conditions such as high asset price inflation v's low wage inflation, increasing in precariousness of employment etc etc. we are also a far more open economy compared to previous generations, so we re far more vulnerable to global markets and the movement of capital etc, so different, different

Mad_maxx

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

We wonder why people are so desperate to buy, imagining dealing with ghouls like this...

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/ireland-s-generation-rent-after-12-years-renting-i-d-like-my-own-front-door-1.4532209

those tenants are just too soft , any tenant with a bit of backbone and understanding of the law can make a landlord dance to their tune , thats how biased the laws are in tenants favour

that landlord deserves to be hauled to the RTB and fined

MacronvFrugals

Much much better than any government bond!

Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council signed 25-year lease on 87 Dundrum apartments for use as social housing without seeking opinion other than developer’s on rent levels

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/no-independent-valuation-for-eur2k-social-housing-rents-608c0fa6

mcsean2163

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Much much better than any government bond!

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/no-independent-valuation-for-eur2k-social-housing-rents-608c0fa6

It's the beginning of the end, €52 million spent with an assurance from the seller that the price was reasonable.

Browney7

mcsean2163 wrote: »

It's the beginning of the end, €52 million spent with an assurance from the seller that the price was reasonable.

And the guys/funds/REITs clamouring over themselves to develop "affordable" schemes will define what "affordable" is down the line

Elessar

Don't forget councils and approved housing bodies, with (for all intents and purposes) unlimited funds are hoovering up houses and apartments like there is no tomorrow, out-bidding you and most other private buyers and further depleting private housing stock.

amacca

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Much much better than any government bond!

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/no-independent-valuation-for-eur2k-social-housing-rents-608c0fa6

Isn't it amazing primetime aren't doing a couple of specials on something like this

Villa05

Browney7 wrote:

And the guys/funds/REITs clamouring over themselves to develop "affordable" schemes will define what "affordable" is down the line

It's like we've given the delinquent child the family credit card on the trip to Las vegas

amacca wrote:

Isn't it amazing primetime aren't doing a couple of specials on something like this

Rte are beacon of where the state is headed. They've sold the family jewels and are struggling to meet there everyday expenses despite every household in the country subsidising them.

RichardAnd

amacca wrote: »

Isn't it amazing primetime aren't doing a couple of specials on something like this

People of Ireland
Be not so bold
For thy media
Is bought and sold

RichardAnd

Villa05 wrote: »

Rte are beacon of where the state is headed. They've sold the family jewels and are struggling to meet there everyday expenses despite every household in the country subsidising them.

I worry about this too. As the state's spending continues to grow, I feat they will sell off more and more state assets to keep the upside-down triangle balanced on its head.

From welfare payments and social services to pay and pensions for legions of civil servants, I fear greatly that the family jewels, as you say, will be sold off to keep this unsustainable, bloated beast alive for another few years.

Of course, this is hardly a uniquely Irish problem...