2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Zenify

Zenify wrote: »

Wrong, inflation is not just in asset markets.

Even our politicians are warning about interest rates and inflation. Do you disagree with them?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/prepare-for-rise-in-interest-rates-and-price-inflation-varadkar-warns-1.4514144%3fmode=amp

All the charts around the world are showing inflation rising. It is happening much faster in emerging markets and they are all increasing rates already. You are disregarding all these facts saying you know better?

"Rising interest rates cool emerging markets rally"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c58dbec6-953c-43f6-83c1-511b5ef10376

this chart shows how inflation is starting to pick up this year already and we haven't even opened up the EU economy.

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/inflation-rate

I know this is getting off topic but interest rates will have a major impact on property prices here.

Wanderer78

Zenify wrote: »

All the charts around the world are showing inflation rising. It is happening much faster in emerging markets and they are all increasing rates already. You are disregarding all these facts saying you know better?

"Rising interest rates cool emerging markets rally"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c58dbec6-953c-43f6-83c1-511b5ef10376

this chart shows how inflation is starting to pick up this year already and we haven't even opened up the EU economy.

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/inflation-rate

I know this is getting off topic but interest rates will have a major impact on property prices here.

its important to realize, these are not just my opinions, but the opinions of respected commentators, we re currently globally in a debt deflation, most of your posts are probably coming from a more conservative view point, wage inflation is still very low, compared to high asset price inflation, this is unsustainable, deflation is now a problem, we need to get money out into peoples pockets

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its important to realize, these are not just my opinions, but the opinions of respected commentators, we re currently globally in a debt deflation, most of your posts are probably coming from a more conservative view point, wage inflation is still very low, compared to high asset price inflation, this is unsustainable, deflation is now a problem, we need to get money out into peoples pockets

I think you should have a quick look at the members of the eurozone. Then look at their respective debt-to-gdp figures. Then look at their respective demographics.

Most countries in the eurozone need inflation like a kick in the head and higher interest rates would actually benefit them re. their pension problems etc. I reckon interest rates will be a minimum of 5% in the eurozone within 2 years IMO

With the number of eastern europeans returning home, their inflation rates could start to rise very quickly in the not too distant future. Their views are also being taken a lot more seriously these days at the ECB than in the past IMO

And what exactly is our Government borrowing for? Pay and pension rises for who are already amongst the highest paid public sector workers in the eurozone and buying/leasing property back from the funds at Celtic Tiger era prices.

We're not going to get too much sympathy from most of our eurozone neighbours IMO

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you should have a quick look at the members of the eurozone. Then look at their respective debt-to-gdp figures. Then look at their respective demographics.

Most countries in the eurozone need inflation like a kick in the head and higher interest rates would actually benefit them re. their pension problems etc. I reckon interest rates will be a minimum of 5% in the eurozone within 2 years IMO

With the number of eastern europeans returning home, their inflation rates could start to rise very quickly in the not too distant future. Their views are also being taken a lot more seriously these days at the ECB than in the past IMO

And what exactly is our Government borrowing for? Pay and pension rises for who are already amongst the highest paid public sector workers in the eurozone and buying/leasing property back from the funds at Celtic Tiger era prices.

We're not going to get too much sympathy from most of our eurozone neighbours IMO

if we dont take the debt on publicly, we become dependent on the private sector to do it, this is exactly what caused 08, i.e. an over reliance on credit for the money supply. its clearly obvious we need houses, and fast, maybe thats a good start to where to put this money, baring in mind, the majority of public works is conducted by the private sector, hence stimulating the private sector

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

if we dont take the debt on publicly, we become dependent on the private sector to do it, this is exactly what caused 08, i.e. an over reliance on credit for the money supply. its clearly obvious we need houses, and fast, maybe thats a good start to where to put this money, baring in mind, the majority of public works is conducted by the private sector, hence stimulating the private sector

We're too small and have borrowed too much. We have no leeway left IMO. The Government is going to have to cut back on it's housing budget significantly IMO

If they want to solve the housing crisis at little cost to the taxpayer they may start to increasingly look at proper sticks instead of carrots. Our carrots are only available for as long as we can keep borrowing.

They may just review David McWilliams logic on the 600,000 people living in Copenhagen in the same footprint as 100,000 people live between the canals in Dublin City and decide an under-ultiised property tax is the cheapest, quickest and most efficient way to solve the housing shortage IMO

And just like every single downturn in this country since independence, the Government will have absolutely no problem throwing the private sector to the wolves IMO

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote: »

We're too small and have borrowed too much. We have no leeway left IMO. The Government is going to have to cut back on it's housing budget significantly IMO

If they want to solve the housing crisis at little cost to the taxpayer they may start to increasingly look at proper sticks instead of carrots. Our carrots are only available for as long as we can keep borrowing.

They may just review David McWilliams logic on the 600,000 people living in Copenhagen in the same footprint as 100,000 people live between the canals in Dublin City and decide an under-ultiised property tax is the cheapest, quickest and most efficient way to solve the housing shortage IMO

And just like every single downturn in this country since independence, the Government will have absolutely no problem throwing the private sector to the wolves IMO

we cant keep defaulting, this is running out of road, we cannot keep allowing the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), turn our economies into wealth extractive, rent seeking outcomes, this is dangerous for all, including current property and land owners, we have to get over this deficit borrowing and spending block

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

we cant keep defaulting, this is running out of road, we cannot keep allowing the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), turn our economies into wealth extractive, rent seeking outcomes, this is dangerous for all, including current property and land owners, we have to get over this deficit borrowing and spending block

We were lucky last time in the sense we had a relatively low government debt and could leverage up.

Unfortunately, we've really landed ourselves in it this time IMO

And by "we've", I mean Paschal and co.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

We were lucky last time in the sense we had a relatively low government debt and could leverage up.

Unfortunately, we've really landed ourselves in it this time IMO

And by "we've", I mean Paschal and co.

Once again I pointed out we built up 200Billion worth of debt leading up to and during the 08 crash at a much higher interest rate than now. We have added 20 billion or so, in 2020 and probably the same for 2021 if Corona keeps us in lockddown..So we will have borrowed an extra 40Billion. But as I have pointed out over and over we have refinanced the existing 200Billion worth of debt at a much lower % point now than in 08 and will be borrowing the 40Billion for almost zero %. The amount coming out of the coffers for servicing the debt will be marginal at best. If we are in a position where the economy flat lines after corona goes then the ship will sink but we wont be the only country in this boat. For example the UK borrowed 400Billion for corona alone. Your guessing at best what if the economy takes off?? What if a high % of people go back working at the jobs there were doing pre-lockdown. Was this not the whole point of PUP and support for businesses so that when covid goes they can open up and go back to pre covid levels of consumer activity. Also when they open up people have been saving in record amounts the highest amounts in Irish savings accounts ever. So I can tell you there will a hunger for people to go out and splurg. Your opinion is so negative all the time, with very little factual data to support it. You really should go find a happy place Props.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I pointed out we built up 200Billion worth of debt leading up to and during the 08 crash at a much higher interest rate than now. We have added 20 billion or so, in 2020 and probably the same for 2021 if Corona keeps us in lockddown..So we will have borrowed an extra 40Billion. But as I have pointed out over and over we have refinanced the existing 200Billion worth of debt at a much lower % point now than in 08 and will be borrowing the 40Billion for almost zero %. The amount coming out of the coffers for servicing the debt will be marginal at best. If we are in a position where the economy flat lines after corona goes then the ship will sink but we wont be the only country in this boat. For example the UK borrowed 400Billion for corona alone. Your guessing at best what if the economy takes off?? What if a high % of people go back working at the jobs there were doing pre-lockdown. Was this not the whole point of PUP and support for businesses so that when covid goes they can open up. When they open up people have been saving in record amounts the highest amounts in Irish savings accounts ever. So I can tell you there will a hunger for people to go out and splurg. Your opinion is so negative all the time, you should go find a happy place Props.

I'm a very happy person I'm just so long in the tooth that I can see exactly where this is all leading.

Where's it leading? Significant additional taxes on my income, my savings, my home and my pension IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm a very happy person I'm just so long in the tooth that I can see exactly where this is all leading.

Where's it leading? Significant additional taxes on my income, my savings, my home and my pension IMO

While FF/FG are in government there will be no tax increases, if there is then within 6 months there will be a G.E so lets get one thing straight, Turkeys do not vote for xmas. Martin is in power for another 8 months or so and I can tell you FG wont rock the boat when it comes for their turn to drive the good ship Ireland Inc. So regardless of all your waffle. Look at it from a historical political point of view no government has ever got away with phcuking over their core voting blocks and I cant see it happening now. We can argue this point but better to wait for the budget, but I cant see tax increases after agreeing to give the PS a pay rise the optics of this would poisonous for the FF/FG coalition. So you dont know where its leading to.

If your so worried about your pension why dont you invest in one of the REITS

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

While FF/FG are in government there will be no tax increases, if there is then within 6 months there will be a G.E so lets get one thing straight, Turkeys do not vote for xmas. Martin is in power for another 8 months or so and I can tell you FG wont rock the boat when it comes for their turn to drive the good ship Ireland Inc. So regardless of all your waffle. Look at it from a historical political point of view no government has ever got away with phcuking over their core voting blocks and I cant see it happening now. We can argue this point but better to wait for the budget, but I cant see tax increases after agreeing to give the PS a pay rise the optics of this would poisonous for the FF/FG coalition.

The moment they start saying things like "bigger state" etc., that's code for tax increases. And, by "bigger state", they don't mean a better public service, free healthcare etc., they mean keeping the salaries and pensions of existing public sector workers the same while hitting the rest of us with tax rises, additional charges on everything, reduced local services etc. etc. IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The moment they start saying things like "bigger state" etc., that's code for tax increases. And, by "bigger state", they don't mean a better public service, free healthcare etc., they mean keeping the salaries and pensions of existing public sector workers the same while hitting the rest of us with tax rises, additional charges on everything, reduced local services etc. etc. IMO

They have also said they are not going to increase taxes. This was the basis of many of the voting block who voted for FG. We may get reduced services but like you I dont know what the future holds.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

If your so worried about your pension why dont you invest in one of the REITS

Why would I invest in a REIT? They're completely reliant on long-term lease agreements and HAP.

Both these policies are going to be the first to be cut significantly IMO

Yurt2

Zenify wrote: »

Wrong, inflation is not just in asset markets.

Even our politicians are warning about interest rates and inflation. Do you disagree with them?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/prepare-for-rise-in-interest-rates-and-price-inflation-varadkar-warns-1.4514144%3fmode=amp

Yes I disagree with them. It's difficult to see where inflation will come from in the eurozone. There is is asset inflation in discreet sectors, but that's about it.

As per the Japan conversation we had earlier, that's where we're headed.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Why would I invest in a REIT? They're completely reliant on long-term lease agreements and HAP.

Both these policies are going to be the first to be cut significantly IMO

And yet people will all need somewhere to live cant see them being cut at all. If anything Sinn Fein will get in and we will go even more towards the left..Freebies for every tom dick and Jane on the scratch. If they get in they will make a pigs ear of it I wonder if they will blame the British

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

And yet people will all need somewhere to live cant see them being cut at all

Not if the housing "shortage" is all make believe

You would be very surprised how quickly the Government finds solutions where they couldn't see solutions before when their own salaries and pensions are at stake

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Not if the housing "shortage" is all make believe

You would be very surprised how quickly the Government finds solutions where they couldn't see solutions before when their own salaries and pensions are at stake

A lot of other experts with better minds than you or I who have more knowledge and information about this subject think there is a housing shortage so forgive if I think all the properties with the rooms over a shop and all is a figment of your imagination Even your economic pin up David McWilliams thinks we need to build a lot more houses

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

And yet people will all need somewhere to live cant see them being cut at all. If anything Sinn Fein will get in and we will go even more towards the left..Freebies for every tom dick and Jane on the scratch. If they get in they will make a pigs ear of it I wonder if they will blame the British

I think on current spending ffgg will have the pigs ear

fliball123 wrote:

A lot of other experts with better minds than you or I who have more knowledge and information about this subject think there is a housing shortage so forgive if I think all the properties with the rooms over a shop and all is a figment of your imagination Even your economic pin up David McWilliams thinks we need to build a lot more houses

Are they the soft landing folk of 07. Ronan Lyons as well as some here reckon we have way too many family homes

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I think on current spending ffgg will have the pigs ear





Are they the soft landing folk of 07. Ronan Lyons as well as some here reckon we have way too many family homes

I dont disagree with you about the current spend I think the last recession they wasted an ideal time to cut the fat in our spend. As for people who think we need more houses I believe the Central bank and Irish Government and ecconomists like mr McWilliams said it as well. Do you really think they are trying to hoodwink us?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-says-34-000-houses-needed-each-year-for-next-decade-1.4110839

https://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-irish-government-houses-built-4918423-Dec2019/

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30905413.html

hometruths

One for Datadude at €1m? Serious renovation job required but smashing house in smashing location.



https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-4-edward-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dalkey-co-dublin/3144784

What does this go for?

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

One for Datadude at €1m? Serious renovation job required but smashing house in smashing location.



https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-4-edward-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dalkey-co-dublin/3144784

What does this go for?

Unfortunately for someone much richer than I! It was sold in September 2019 for €895k. Planning obtained and then straight back on market it seems, not a tap done. How much does value does the hassle of doing that add to someone with the money to take this on? €50k? €1m wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

I honestly wouldn't even be able to hazard a guess at the cost of renovating and extending it would be, but I'd be pretty confident it's (well) north of €500k. Someone will end up with a smashing 200sqm house on Sorrento Road though so huge interest no doubt.

Personally, whilst I love the area, houses on Sorrento and Coliemore (even the small ones) carry huge premiums which aren't worth it to me. I'd prefer a house on a less prestigious road nearby with more off street parking! Priorities I guess.

Zenify

schmittel wrote: »

One for Datadude at €1m? Serious renovation job required but smashing house in smashing location.



https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-4-edward-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dalkey-co-dublin/3144784

What does this go for?

I'm surprised it's so cheap. Can't believe it sold for less than that in 2019. I'd expect it to go for 1.3m or 1.4m.

There's a lot more value in properties higher up the market IMO.

It has twice the land and twice the square footage of houses being sold in crap areas for 500k. That's why I say it's cheap.

DataDude

Zenify wrote: »

I'm surprised it's so cheap. Can't believe it sold for less than that in 2019. I'd expect it to go for 1.3m or 1.4m.

There's a lot more value in properties higher up the market IMO.

It has twice the land and twice the square footage of houses being sold in crap areas for 500k. That's why I say it's cheap.

You might be right, it could go way through asking! You'd need a detailed survey and some estimates before saying for sure

I've come to the conclusion that the "value in the market" is always 25% higher than your budget, no matter what your budget is. My friends in the €600k range insist the value starts at €800k, and if you had that you could have the dream house. Those at €800k say it's €1m. I'm convinced the correct figure is €1.5m

Kind like when you ask people what the ideal salary is, always what they earn plus a bit!

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

Unfortunately for someone much richer than I! It was sold in September 2019 for €895k. Planning obtained and then straight back on market it seems, not a tap done. How much does value does the hassle of doing that add to someone with the money to take this on? €50k? €1m wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

I honestly wouldn't even be able to hazard a guess at the cost of renovating and extending it would be, but I'd be pretty confident it's (well) north of €500k. Someone will end up with a smashing 200sqm house on Sorrento Road though so huge interest no doubt.

Personally, whilst I love the area, houses on Sorrento and Coliemore (even the small ones) carry huge premiums which aren't worth it to me. I'd prefer a house on a less prestigious road nearby with more off street parking! Priorities I guess.

No front garden, half assed drive way (if you have a car).... that’s before stepping inside!

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

You might be right, it could go way through asking! You'd need a detailed survey and some estimates before saying for sure

I've come to the conclusion that the "value in the market" is always 25% higher than your budget, no matter what your budget is. My friends in the €600k range insist the value starts at €800k, and if you had that you could have the dream house. Those at €800k say it's €1m. I'm convinced the correct figure is €1.5m

Kind like when you ask people what the ideal salary is, always what they earn plus a bit!

You might be onto something with your value theory.

It will be interesting to see sale price of this compared to that hovel in sandycove posted a few days ago. There is only 150k difference in the asking.

If it is anything close to that difference in sales price, I’d say this house represents good value.

Both buyers will have to throw money at the renovations, and whilst one of the will end up with a fine big house on a premium road, the other will still have a fairly ordinary house in a fairly ordinary estate. (IMO!)

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

You might be onto something with your value theory.

It will be interesting to see sale price of this compared to that hovel in sandycove posted a few days ago. There is only 150k difference in the asking.

If it is anything close to that difference in sales price, I’d say this house represents good value.

Both buyers will have to throw money at the renovations, and whilst one of the will end up with a fine big house on a premium road, the other will still have a fairly ordinary house in a fairly ordinary estate. (IMO!)

that house would do nothing for me to be honest, it needs 500k minimum and you have the bare minimum of off street parking for one car and no prospect of parking anywhere close by because its narrow along there and all yellow lined.

There is a reason that its 'cheap' it certainly isnt for everyone even if you love dalkey. Proximity to finnegans is a plus.

there is a nice house right beside the entrance to the loreto primary school, similar style, sold for under 1m a few years ago, it looks more, but the drawbacks hindered the price.

awec

The parking situation would be off-putting on the Dalkey one. Particularly with the double yellow lines.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

The parking situation would be off-putting on the Dalkey one. Particularly with the double yellow lines.

Don’t underestimate the value of the double yellows. They’re adding value to that house.

I remember over 20 years ago some young lads from dalkey had a massive converted bus camper van. Huge big green and white thing.

Saw it regularly parked outside that house, much to the house owners annoyance blocking the light in his windows. No yellows in those days

PropQueries

More news from the WFH front. According to the Sunday Business Post:

"Reach, the UK publisher which owns the Irish Mirror, the Irish Daily Star and RSVP as well as a string of regional and online publications, will close two of its main Irish offices as part of a move towards permanent home working.".

How can any commercial office space anywhere be worth more than 50% of it's pre-covid value at this stage? Especially as there must be real uncertainty regarding around any office leases that start expiring over the next few years. Even if they have a 20 year lease remaining, the value of that building in 20 years time is valued at what?

Link to article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/media-marketing/newspaper-publisher-to-close-two-irish-offices-in-move-to-permanent-home-working-7b18ab7a

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

How can any commercial office space anywhere be worth more than 50% of it's pre-covid value at this stage?

The market generally disagrees with your outlook?