2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

Digiteer wrote: »

Its very easy to manipulate the market in Ireland, simply restrict supply in Dublin. I know of two apartment blocks sitting empty over two years. Perfectly habitable, one has 14 units & and the other 18 + units. One in Dublin 16 & the other in Dublin 4.

Maybe they are overpriced if they are in locations you say they are probably looking for over the 500k mark are they actually up for sale??

Digiteer

In 2010 there was over 350,000 vacant houses and apartments in Ireland ..!! So by current estimates, immigration has brought over 700,000 people in need of homes.

beauf

beauf wrote: »

I have to decide to either move somewhere else or renovate the current gaff. The main trade off is space. I won't get the same space for the same money in a new house as I would an old house. I don't think I could get the same level of efficiency and comfort in a old house as I would a new house. It is possible if you throw money at either project. But you spending a lot more.

Assuming you could find a new or old house in the first place.

I don't like the fact that you can't have a chimney in the newer houses.
My brother lives in a new build A rated house and his girlfriend finds it cold because of the vents.

cnocbui

Digiteer wrote: »

Its very easy to manipulate the market in Ireland, simply restrict supply in Dublin. I know of two apartment blocks sitting empty over two years. Perfectly habitable, one has 14 units & and the other 18 + units. One in Dublin 16 & the other in Dublin 4.

Heated, or unheated? The mind boggles.

accensi0n

Digiteer wrote: »

House prices are dropping since 3rd Quarter 2018, in particular South Dublin..!! Most properties overpriced atm. No supply issues, thats only the market talking.!! 3 bed semi , nice middle class estate in D14.!! Paid €270,000 a few years back, asking price now €435,000. Still on the market, no viewings in two years.

Can you provide a link to that house?

3 bed semis in good condition in historically nice middle class areas of D14 have been selling for like 550-650.

beauf

Digiteer wrote: »

In 2010 there was over 350,000 vacant houses and apartments in Ireland ..!! So by current estimates, immigration has brought over 700,000 people in need of homes.

A lot of vacant places are caught up in lots of issues. I know a development sitting for a couple of years because there's a dispute about water. Others stuck due to legal issues. Its not like you can click your fingers and these all appear on the market. Likewise with home caught in the fair deal scheme.

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

I don't like the fact that you can't have a chimney in the newer houses.
My brother lives in a new build A rated house and his girlfriend finds it cold because of the vents.

Not sure why would you would want a chimney in a new house ? We have a gas fire in ours full fireplace etc so looks nice but we light it maybe 5 times a year it’s too warm .

And vents are easily resolved to be fair. Either fit cheap hit and miss vents or get more expensive all in one recirculating units.

Cyrus

accensi0n wrote: »

Can you provide a link to that house?

3 bed semis in good condition in historically nice middle class areas of D14 have been selling for like 550-650.

Yeah I’d like to see this aswell

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

Not sure why would you would want a chimney in a new house ? We have a gas fire in ours full fireplace etc so looks nice but we light it maybe 5 times a year it’s too warm .

And vents are easily resolved to be fair. Either fit cheap hit and miss vents or get more expensive all in one recirculating units.

I like real fire, not a fan of the gas fires.

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

I like real fire, not a fan of the gas fires.

Sure I get that but a real fire in a A rated house makes no sense .

People like real fires because their house is cold

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

Sure I get that but a real fire in a A rated house makes no sense .

People like real fires because their house is cold

That's why I don't like the A rated houses!

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

That's why I don't like the A rated houses!

Fair enough each to their own

Having spend Christmas at my in laws which was a new build 25 years ago I’m a convert I have to say !

fliball123

Digiteer wrote: »

In 2010 there was over 350,000 vacant houses and apartments in Ireland ..!! So by current estimates, immigration has brought over 700,000 people in need of homes.

not sure about emigration but we have gone up in population by 500k since 2010

Louis Friend

A lot of the time nowadays, fires aren’t to heat the house, they’re for effect.

A real fire is lovely.

beauf

Cyrus wrote: »

Sure I get that but a real fire in a A rated house makes no sense .

People like real fires because their house is cold

Dunno about that. I like even the fire effect your can get that don't have any heat.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Interesting article in the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/91efe8fa-857c-438a-a0f3-96dfb8e7daaa


The one quote that stood out to me was the following:

"For retail investors the message is that government bonds, traditionally regarded as safe assets, are in the long run dangerous. Real assets, such as property — notably residential, warehouses and care homes — and a modicum of portfolio insurance by investment in gold, will offer greater safety in what is anyway likely to be a low-return world."

Sounds a lot like positioning a portfolio to defend against inflation.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Sounds a lot like positioning a portfolio to defend against inflation.

The article is about how Stocks and bonds valuations are extremely high at the moment and that for the foreseeable there will be low yields in stocks and bonds as a consequence. It then explains why people are now investing in other asset classes (Including Retail Property) as they chase yield.

While the US are seeing an increase in Bond yields as the hedge funds bet on inflation thanks to the democrats holding both houses, in Europe the ECB have downgraded the inflation forecast for the next 2-3 years. (according to the ECB Economic Bulletin published yesterday.)

Overview
At its monetary policy meeting on 10 December 2020, the Governing Council
decided to recalibrate its monetary policy instruments. While the rebound in
economic activity in the third quarter was stronger than expected and the prospects for the roll-out of vaccines are encouraging, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to pose serious risks to public health and to the euro area and global economies. The resurgence in COVID-19 cases and the associated containment measures are significantly restricting euro area economic activity, which is expected to have contracted in the fourth quarter of 2020. While activity in the manufacturing sector continues to hold up well, services activity is being severely curbed by the increase in infection rates and the new restrictions on social interaction and mobility.
Inflation remains very low in the context of weak demand and significant slack in labour and product markets. Overall, the incoming data and the December 2020Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections suggest a more pronounced near-term impact of the pandemic on the economy and a more protracted weakness in inflation than previously envisaged. Against this background, the Governing Council decided to recalibrate its monetary policy instruments at its meeting on 10 December 2020

Mic 1972

Digiteer wrote: »

House prices are dropping since 3rd Quarter 2018, in particular South Dublin..!! Most properties overpriced atm. No supply issues, thats only the market talking.!! 3 bed semi , nice middle class estate in D14.!! Paid €270,000 a few years back, asking price now €435,000. Still on the market, no viewings in two years.

House prices in South Dublin have increased by 9.2%, let's not use anecdotes as evidence of facts.

https://ww1.daft.ie/report/2020-Q4-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

I had though this from the start of 2020. I've been proved wrong anyone I know selling has sold in this price bracket for around 10% over asking, and fairly quickly. Even if completing the sale has taken ages do to lockdowns and banks rechecking everything so so slowly.

I though that with the work these required it made no sense. But obviously the buyers think differently, or have no choice.

Correct.

The trend has been positive all year in 2020 and it picked up even more steam in Q4 when things normally cool down a bit.
With no new buildings in the plans 2021 is going to bring more increases

Mic 1972

HotDudeLife wrote: »

I predict many will struggle to shift their 2nd hand property within this range and this will lead to 10-15% price drops by around late Q3 2021 and further reductions going into 2022. If they fall by more than 30% within the next 24 months it will be interesting to see how it impacts the market as a whole.

Nothing at all is pointing to a price drop in 2021, let alone a 10-15%

TheSheriff

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Exactly. For some reason most people are ignorant to the fact that EAs would rather a quick sale than wait and sell for a higher price, it translate very little to their commission and they prefer constant cash flow.


The big elephant in the room for 2021 is second hand property valued between 220-350k, these are properties typically within FTB territory, however, nearly all FTBs are falling for the government schemes are opting for new builds.



I predict many will struggle to shift their 2nd hand property within this range and this will lead to 10-15% price drops by around late Q3 2021 and further reductions going into 2022. If they fall by more than 30% within the next 24 months it will be interesting to see how it impacts the market as a whole.

It is wrong to think a government scheme which increases the price of a new build will not also increase the price of second hand properties.

These schemes drag up the prices of all houses, to different extents, but it all trickles down.

If the housing ministers' new government scheme of shared equity comes to pass expect new builds to increase.

Second hand homes will follow suit.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

The article is about how Stocks and bonds valuations are extremely high at the moment and that for the foreseeable there will be low yields in stocks and bonds as a consequence. It then explains why people are now investing in other asset classes (Including Retail Property) as they chase yield.

While the US are seeing an increase in Bond yields as the hedge funds bet on inflation thanks to the democrats holding both houses, in Europe the ECB have downgraded the inflation forecast for the next 2-3 years. (according to the ECB Economic Bulletin published yesterday.)

Overview
At its monetary policy meeting on 10 December 2020, the Governing Council
decided to recalibrate its monetary policy instruments. While the rebound in
economic activity in the third quarter was stronger than expected and the prospects for the roll-out of vaccines are encouraging, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to pose serious risks to public health and to the euro area and global economies. The resurgence in COVID-19 cases and the associated containment measures are significantly restricting euro area economic activity, which is expected to have contracted in the fourth quarter of 2020. While activity in the manufacturing sector continues to hold up well, services activity is being severely curbed by the increase in infection rates and the new restrictions on social interaction and mobility.
Inflation remains very low in the context of weak demand and significant slack in labour and product markets. Overall, the incoming data and the December 2020Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections suggest a more pronounced near-term impact of the pandemic on the economy and a more protracted weakness in inflation than previously envisaged. Against this background, the Governing Council decided to recalibrate its monetary policy instruments at its meeting on 10 December 2020

Sure that is what the ECB say, but I was talking about the article you linked. If somebody is suggesting you skip bonds in favour of real assets and gold, they are worried about inflation.

Smouse156

Mic 1972 wrote: »

House prices in South Dublin have increased by 9.2%, let's not use anecdotes as evidence of facts.

https://ww1.daft.ie/report/2020-Q4-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1

No they haven’t! Stop using these asking price reports, they’re totally wrong! South Dublin have the most delusional prices in the country. They never achieve those asking prices!

hometruths

Mic 1972 wrote: »

House prices in South Dublin have increased by 9.2%, let's not use anecdotes as evidence of facts.

https://ww1.daft.ie/report/2020-Q4-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1

Let's not use asking prices as evidence either.

Mic 1972

Smouse156 wrote: »

No they haven’t! Stop using these asking price reports, they’re totally wrong! South Dublin have the most delusional prices in the country. They never achieve those asking prices!

The urban legend of asking prices being wrong still stands I see
Asking prices are a reflection of the real sales prices, they follow the same trend. In fact at the moment asking prices are lower than actual sale prices, thus they are increasing.

South Dublin prices are high, not delusional. People are still paying them prices to get a house in leafy south Dublin.

Sale prices below, as you can see they are also on rise, same as asking prices

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

Mic 1972

schmittel wrote: »

Let's not use asking prices as evidence either.

Asking prices are a very valid metric for analysis.
Look at the asking prices trends for the last 10 years and tell me when/if they were ever on a different track compared to sales prices.

Smouse156

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The urban legend of asking prices being wrong still stands I see
Asking prices are a reflection of the real sales prices, they follow the same trend. In fact at the moment asking prices are lower than actual sale prices, thus they are increasing.


South Dublin prices are high, not delusional. People are still paying them prices to get a house in leafy south Dublin.


Sale prices for you ;-) same trend, as expected

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

To be clear as you don’t seem to understand, South Dublin houses were up 1.5% year on year! Dublin overall was down 1.5%.

I’ll say it again, I bought my car new in 2019 for 44k. If I listed it for 50k you’d believe that my car is up 10% whereas in reality I’d be lucky to sell it for 32k! If you were buying a similar car, would you seriously consider my asking price v what the car actually sold for??

Mic 1972

Smouse156 wrote: »

To be clear as you don’t seem to understand, South Dublin houses were up 1.5% year on year! Dublin overall was down 1.5%.

I’ll say it again, I bought my car new in 2019 for 44k. If I listed it for 50k you’d believe that my car is up 10% whereas in reality I’d be lucky to sell it for 32k! If you were buying a similar car, would you seriously consider my asking price v what the car actually sold for??

I'll say it again, personal anecdotes don't mean anything.
Reports are the appropriate tools to asses trends.
There are plenty of reports out there, asking prices, sales prices.
They are all pointing up. Don't shoot the messenger

hometruths

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices are a very valid metric for analysis.
Look at the asking prices trends for the last 10 years and tell me when/if they were ever on a different track compared to sales prices.

Sure they are handy for identifying if market is trending up or down. But to use them to claim "House prices in South Dublin have increased by 9.2%" as a fact is nonsense.

Smouse156

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'll say it again, personal anecdotes don't mean anything.
Reports are the appropriate tools to asses trends.
There are plenty of reports out there, asking prices, sales prices.
They are all pointing up. Don't shoot the messenger

Personal anecdotes aside only a fool would believe an asking price report as reality!

Stick to the CSO and PPR sales for the area you want to buy, not what the delusional owner is looking for! The simple way to properly value a property is to look at comparable sales in the area and look at the change in the residential price index in the time that has passed. It’s totally irrelevant what someone asks, you should be able to work out the price range regardless.

Asking prices also work both ways, many agents deliberately set low asking prices to attract interest so it’s not meaningful in anyway at all, either up or down! It only indicates sellers expectations...sometimes