2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

Most people waiting to get onto the property ladder will see this as very palatable but you need to remember that in Ireland 2/3 of people own their property so the idea of lower property prices is up their with large tax increases ("with no benefits for the tax paying population"). Why would anyone choose to reduce their net wealth?

You raise an interesting point but I would question your theroy

A Holland has housing that caters for all income levels, yet has some of the most expensive property in the world

B yes the majority of people in Ireland own their own home (that is changing rapidly though). However most of those people have children who are increasingly priced out of the market. I'm sure they would be supportive of a program that would allow affordable accomodation

C High property prices will mean higher taxes as more and more people will need subsidised accomodation.
People will have to buy further away from their place of work meaning higher taxes through fuel which 2/3 of the price is taxation
Workers are away from there children longer leading to higher childcare costs
Higher property prices leads to higher rents leads to higher cost of living

Interesting argument but flawed on many levels

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/home-sellers-warned-to-price-their-properties-realistically-1.4452724

Interesting comments from lisney in relation to realistic asking prices. Somewhat contrary to myhome report. So you could argue they are telling people/other estate agents to cop on or they are pitching for business... either way, I think it is a welcome contribution from an estate agent.

to be fair its in lisneys interest to conclude sales, 10/20 k either way its a minimal impact on what they earn from the sale.

Ozark707

Cyrus wrote: »

to be fair its in lisneys interest to conclude sales, 10/20 k either way its a minimal impact on what they earn from the sale.

Well Lisney operate at the mid to upper end of the market where the amount of transactions is lower. If you have unrealistic vendors then Lisney will probably feel that more than an EA operating at lower levels. I am guessing Lisney are probably talking about more than 10/20k

amacca

Timing belt wrote: »

I posted about this the other day and it was pointed out that it is not the mortgage that is at 0% it is the Bond yield and does not take into account additional fees such as the banks banks margin. After reading up on it is clear that that it is a totally different model so it is like comparing apples and oranges.

Where did you find the most reliable info on their model? Sorry if off topic but if like to educate myself on these 0% mortgages

Cyrus

Ozark707 wrote: »

Well Lisney operate at the mid to upper end of the market where the amount of transactions is lower. If you have unrealistic vendors then Lisney will probably feel that more than an EA operating at lower levels. I am guessing Lisney are probably talking about more than 10/20k

the point still stands, if its a 5m euro house, they want to sell it at 4.5m rather than not sell it at 5m,

its a turkey advising against christmas.

amacca

Cyrus wrote: »

the point still stands, if its a 5m euro house, they want to sell it at 4.5m rather than not sell it at 5m,

its a turkey advising against christmas.

Yeah but the point still stands that 5m euro house is not representative of market as a whole surely

The 5m house could drop significantly while the 300-500k house could rise couldn't it?

Smouse156

amacca wrote: »

Yeah but the point still stands that 5m euro house is not representative of market as a whole surely

The 5m house could drop significantly while the 300-500k house could rise couldn't it?

Lisney aren’t just selling 5m houses come on! The top end of the market with the most unrealistic prices fell around 4% in 2020 (real prices). They obviously want sales to progress so they get paid

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

The point about time is that whoever is in government will need time to put proper policy in place. Parties that say they will build 20k houses per year starting in yr 1 are liars.
So right now the government is unfortunately competing with FTBers and renting at “market rates” as they have no other real options. Look at the issue of the xx thousand vacant units. It would take a long time to assess and address that if there is an opportunity to increase supply.

You also have to remember that public servants and councils have limited competence and apart from politicians (at election time) there is no accountability for failing to do your job.

...limited competence...seriously?

We are relying on public servants during a pandemic, particularly in the health services, but not solely there. People need to get paid, housed, all the systems of state have to still function.

The issue has always been supply, and demand. You can't have massive immigration, economic boom, and a housing shortage. But expect no housing issues. Those are incompatible with each other. We want higher building standards, no compromise, but don't want to pay the price that all these things costs.

Its a bit like people complaining about traffic and how it effects their commuting by car. They are their own problem. People complain they can't find any housing to buy, but fail to realize they are what's causing the demand. The Govt and by association local authorities and public servants policies and actions simply reflect general society demands.

A more interesting indicator is to follow what the private sector are building. if they aren't building and the demand is there. You need to look at why.

Villa05

beauf wrote:

The issue has always been supply, and demand. You can't have massive immigration, economic boom, and a housing shortage. But expect no housing issues. Those are incompatible with each other. We want higher building standards, no compromise, but don't want to pay the price that all these things costs.

Building standards have been reduced allowing for co living amongst others

All of the demand side was predicted and incentivised by the state, one would imagine a plan would have been devised to cope

We entered the period with an oversupply of housing plus the state the largest holer of property and land in the state

Nothing was done to disincentise land hoarding, double digit interest rates for construction projects despite the state controlling most of the banking sector.

And currently the state is still pursuing demand side measures driving up price despite everything being in place to tackle the supply side.

Traffic issue can be resolved using a proper housing policy

There is a consistent pattern here in government actions. Suffocate supply, increase demand and price

The housing issues are a direct result of government in/actions. All these issues could have been planned/prepared for to maximize the positives and minimise the negatives and reduce the cost to the ecinomy

beauf

Co living isn't only one part of the market. We've been through this will shoebox apartments in the 90's, and it wasn't successful. But we seem to be determined to repeat this all over again. I say let them go ahead. Who cares. It doesn't solve the problem for the majority of the market.

As for the rest of it, its basically complaining when the state does something, and when they do nothing. No win what ever they do. They can though remove the hassle (and cost) of building housing or renting it directly for themselves and all the associate problems. This is what they have done. They've dumped the problem on the private sector. The private sector doesn't want it, and avoid it where ever possible. It does however drive investment and especially inward investment. Which is a quick fix for the economy and a win come election time.

All of this is short term reacting to events as they happen. There is no long term plan or strategy here. At least none that they are engaging with whole heartily. They may pay it lip service. But thats about it.

People like to see conspiracy theories in everything. Especially if they feel hard done by. But its very hard for the Govt or the Auctioneer/Estate agent to manipulate the entire market as is being suggested. If people set their prices too high, the market will undercut them. If they try to create demand where this none, the market will ignore it. If the Govt can't artificially constrain supply. As there the market will find a way to trade around it. People want to make money. People find their own solutions.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Building standards have been reduced allowing for co living amongst others

All of the demand side was predicted and incentivised by the state, one would imagine a plan would have been devised to cope

We entered the period with an oversupply of housing plus the state the largest holer of property and land in the state

Nothing was done to disincentise land hoarding, double digit interest rates for construction projects despite the state controlling most of the banking sector.

And currently the state is still pursuing demand side measures driving up price despite everything being in place to tackle the supply side.

Traffic issue can be resolved using a proper housing policy

There is a consistent pattern here in government actions. Suffocate supply, increase demand and price

The housing issues are a direct result of government in/actions. All these issues could have been planned/prepared for to maximize the positives and minimise the negatives and reduce the cost to the ecinomy

How did government restrict the availability of skilled labour? Answer is they didn’t. You’re intent to blame everything on the “government” as it is the populist view. It’s easy to swallow what certain politicians say.
Government policy is definitely part of the problem but not the only 1. You refer to housing policy in other countries without considering the cultural societal differences. Conveniently simplistic outlook all round.

HotDudeLife

Cyrus wrote: »

the point still stands, if its a 5m euro house, they want to sell it at 4.5m rather than not sell it at 5m,

its a turkey advising against christmas.

Exactly. For some reason most people are ignorant to the fact that EAs would rather a quick sale than wait and sell for a higher price, it translate very little to their commission and they prefer constant cash flow.


The big elephant in the room for 2021 is second hand property valued between 220-350k, these are properties typically within FTB territory, however, nearly all FTBs are falling for the government schemes are opting for new builds.



I predict many will struggle to shift their 2nd hand property within this range and this will lead to 10-15% price drops by around late Q3 2021 and further reductions going into 2022. If they fall by more than 30% within the next 24 months it will be interesting to see how it impacts the market as a whole.

MacronvFrugals

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The big elephant in the room for 2021 is second hand property valued between 220-350k, these are properties typically within FTB territory, however, nearly all FTBs are falling for the government schemes are opting for new builds.

I was enquiring about new homes down in Balbriggan and Bettystown and the lady that rang me said they were all sale agreed with most of the people who would have normally bought in the cheaper areas of Dublin.

When in bits, poor BER rating houses are 300k+ in areas like Finglas i can see why the new homes on the commuter belt are selling like hot cakes

Marius34

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Exactly. For some reason most people are ignorant to the fact that EAs would rather a quick sale than wait and sell for a higher price, it translate very little to their commission and they prefer constant cash flow.

The big elephant in the room for 2021 is second hand property valued between 220-350k, these are properties typically within FTB territory, however, nearly all FTBs are falling for the government schemes are opting for new builds.

I predict many will struggle to shift their 2nd hand property within this range and this will lead to 10-15% price drops by around late Q3 2021 and further reductions going into 2022. If they fall by more than 30% within the next 24 months it will be interesting to see how it impacts the market as a whole.

It won't happen.
I have my opinion why it won't happen, but I better share fast forward people opinion who has similar views on expected property price fall:
Government & Investment funds won't allow property price to fall, thus it won't fall anyway.

beauf

HotDudeLife wrote: »

....The big elephant in the room for 2021 is second hand property valued between 220-350k, these are properties typically within FTB territory, however, nearly all FTBs are falling for the government schemes are opting for new builds.

I predict many will struggle to shift their 2nd hand property within this range and this will lead to 10-15% price drops by around late Q3 2021 and further reductions going into 2022. If they fall by more than 30% within the next 24 months it will be interesting to see how it impacts the market as a whole.

I had though this from the start of 2020. I've been proved wrong anyone I know selling has sold in this price bracket for around 10% over asking, and fairly quickly. Even if completing the sale has taken ages do to lockdowns and banks rechecking everything so so slowly.

I though that with the work these required it made no sense. But obviously the buyers think differently, or have no choice.

fliball123

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Exactly. For some reason most people are ignorant to the fact that EAs would rather a quick sale than wait and sell for a higher price, it translate very little to their commission and they prefer constant cash flow.


The big elephant in the room for 2021 is second hand property valued between 220-350k, these are properties typically within FTB territory, however, nearly all FTBs are falling for the government schemes are opting for new builds.



I predict many will struggle to shift their 2nd hand property within this range and this will lead to 10-15% price drops by around late Q3 2021 and further reductions going into 2022. If they fall by more than 30% within the next 24 months it will be interesting to see how it impacts the market as a whole.

Well your theory may be thwarted by the stops in construction FTBs cant buy new builds if new builds are not being built. Cant see any price drop this year. Too little supply and too much demand

beauf

Marius34 wrote: »

It won't happen.
I have my opinion why it won't happen, but I better share fast forward people opinion who has similar views on expected property price fall:
Government & Investment funds won't allow property price to fall, thus it won't fall anyway.

I just think there more buyers with money than there is supply. There are also just as many struggling. I'm not sure either group is aware of the other though.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

1. You refer to housing policy in other countries without considering the cultural societal differences. Conveniently simplistic outlook all round.

This was in response to a point that increasing affordable housing would reduce the price of existing houses.

This is not necessarily true, as it is catering for different segments of a market.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

How did government restrict the availability of skilled labour? Answer is they didn’t. You’re intent to blame everything on the “government†as it is the populist view. .

Please address what I said, not what I didn't say

beauf

Villa05 wrote: »

This was in response to a point that increasing affordable housing would reduce the price of existing houses.

This is not necessarily true, as it is catering for different segments of a market.

I think this is lost on many of these discussions.

That the market is not homogeneous.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Please address what I said, not what I didn't say

You said government suffocated supply. Significant input to supply is availability of skilled labour. Available skilled labour was engaged in building projects. How did they restrict this supply?

Ozark707

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I was enquiring about new homes down in Balbriggan and Bettystown and the lady that rang me said they were all sale agreed with most of the people who would have normally bought in the cheaper areas of Dublin.

When in bits, poor BER rating houses are 300k+ in areas like Finglas i can see why the new homes on the commuter belt are selling like hot cakes

Makes sense in the new WFH paradigm. To have a good BER rating house in the suburbs would be preferable now to many who previously might have placed more importance on commute rather than comfort.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

This was in response to a point that increasing affordable housing would reduce the price of existing houses.

This is not necessarily true, as it is catering for different segments of a market.

Correction it was in response to someone highlight the difficulties in using a overall drop in house prices to resolve issues in the housing market.

Affordable housing is a separate issue as there is obviously sufficient demand from people who can afford the property prices otherwise prices would drop.

Yes there are issues with Affordable housing that need to be addressed and what was said was that no-one will discuss a drop in house prices for which I responded explaining why I thought this was the case...

The affordable housing issue is not about people who wants to live the high life (holidays, designer gear, new car etc..) and at the same time expect to be able cheaply buy a house in a prime location...

It is more to do with Single/Separated/Divorced are all lock out the property market as it requires 2 salaries... lower income households etc...

MacronvFrugals

Ozark707 wrote: »

Makes sense in the new WFH paradigm. To have a good BER rating house in the suburbs would be preferable now to many who previously might have placed more importance on commute rather than comfort.

I know its probably obvious but just sitting in one of these A2/A3 houses compared with a 60 year old (even well insulated, triple glaze etc) C1/2/3 home is like another world of comfort.

beauf

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I know its probably obvious but just sitting in one of these A2/A3 houses compared with a 60 year old (even well insulated, triple glaze etc) C1/2/3 home is like another world of comfort.

I have to decide to either move somewhere else or renovate the current gaff. The main trade off is space. I won't get the same space for the same money in a new house as I would an old house. I don't think I could get the same level of efficiency and comfort in a old house as I would a new house. It is possible if you throw money at either project. But you spending a lot more.

Assuming you could find a new or old house in the first place.

Timing belt

Interesting article in the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/91efe8fa-857c-438a-a0f3-96dfb8e7daaa


The one quote that stood out to me was the following:

"For retail investors the message is that government bonds, traditionally regarded as safe assets, are in the long run dangerous. Real assets, such as property — notably residential, warehouses and care homes — and a modicum of portfolio insurance by investment in gold, will offer greater safety in what is anyway likely to be a low-return world."

Digiteer

House prices are dropping since 3rd Quarter 2018, in particular South Dublin..!! Most properties overpriced atm. No supply issues, thats only the market talking.!! 3 bed semi , nice middle class estate in D14.!! Paid €270,000 a few years back, asking price now €435,000. Still on the market, no viewings in two years.

Digiteer

Lots of building going on, in particular hotels, build to rent & offices!! Its only Dublin.

MacronvFrugals

beauf wrote: »

I have to decide to either move somewhere else or renovate the current gaff. The main trade off is space. I won't get the same space for the same money in a new house as I would an old house. I don't think I could get the same level of efficiency and comfort in a old house as I would a new house. It is possible if you throw money at either project. But you spending a lot more.

Assuming you could find a new or old house in the first place.

My sister recently got her house done for efficiency, its about 75 years old and she got full A2W system including UF heating, the 100mm Kingspan on the inside and the really thick insulation on the outside, Munster Joinery triple glaze windows + door, Kingspan solar tubes etc like she spent quite a lot i would imagine. The BER rating guy gave it an A3.

Dont get me wrong its lovely and comfortable but still not very close to the new one imo

Digiteer

Its very easy to manipulate the market in Ireland, simply restrict supply in Dublin. I know of two apartment blocks sitting empty over two years. Perfectly habitable, one has 14 units & and the other 18 + units. One in Dublin 16 & the other in Dublin 4.