2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Oh, ffs! What is the difference between an investment property for sale and a new builf for sale? They both add to the pool of houses for sale.

The question was rehtorical, I'm not actually interested in one of your twisted logic replies.

The difference is as follows:

1. To encourage an investor from outside the country to build new houses in Ireland that do not yet exist, tax incentives can work. Carrots can work here, but not sticks as we don't have his investment yet.

2. To incentivise someone who already is resident here and we already have his investment and he owns a vacant investment property, the state can use either tax incentives (carrot) or a vacant property tax (stick). Both Carrots and Sticks can work in this case.

Given the limited resources of the state, using tax incentives in 1 above may be a good idea but using tax incentives in 2 makes absolutely no sense. The stick is a much better use of the states resources in 2.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

the point i'm making is obvious.

Have you ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect?

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

im still waiting for a location that treats houses as basic necessities, as the copenhagen and berlin example didnt hold up.

people also need to realise mcwilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside so he doesnt speak for most of them either :P

Singapore?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

All other arguments fall flat on their face when you realise that.

All the noise on this thread and all around us is just a distraction from that core point. Just fear and greed when in reality we are all suckers

Definitely a lot of noise in this thread especially from those who think the solutions are so simple

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Definitely a lot of noise in this thread especially from those who think the solutions are so simple

I think the solution is very simple.

1. Remove all taxation on profits for the building of all three-bed semi detached units that are sold for under €150k. A lower tax on all units that are sold for under €200k etc. That's the carrot.

2. Make it compulsory (backed up with significant fines) to register all vacant properties in the state and they must declare are they for rent, a second home, holiday home, being refurbished etc. so they can be easily checked. (Stick)

3. Slap a vacant property tax of 5% (similar to Washington D.C.) and applied monthly (5% / 12) on all vacant properties in the state until they are permanently occupied. (Stick)

4. Slap a 10% annual tax on all sites with planning permission. Also applied on a monthly basis from the moment they are granted planning permission until they are built upon and sold. (Stick)

5. Apply a similar tax on all land that is zoned residential in high demand areas but they haven't yet applied for planning permission. (Stick)

6. Back up all the above with the possibility of a compulsory purchase order.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the solution is very simple.

1. Remove all taxation on profits for the building of all three-bed semi detached units that are sold for under €150k. A lower tax on all units that are sold for under €200k etc. That's the carrot.

2. Make it compulsory (backed up with significant fines) to register all vacant properties in the state and they must declare are they for rent, a second home, holiday home, being refurbished etc. so they can be easily checked. (Stick)

3. Slap a vacant property tax of 5% (similar to Washington D.C.) and applied monthly (5% / 12) on all vacant properties in the state until they are permanently occupied. (Stick)

4. Slap a 10% annual tax on all sites with planning permission. Also applied on a monthly basis from the moment they are granted planning permission until they are built upon and sold. (Stick)

5. Apply a similar tax on all land that is zoned residential in high demand areas but they haven't yet applied for planning permission. (Stick)

Karl Marx has rissen from the dead, unfortunately.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Karl Mark has rissen from the dead, unfortunately.

And he lives in Washington D.C. apparently

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the solution is very simple.

1. Remove all taxation on profits for the building of all three-bed semi detached units that are sold for under €150k. A lower tax on all units that are sold for under €200k etc. That's the carrot.

2. Make it compulsory (backed up with significant fines) to register all vacant properties in the state and they must declare are they for rent, a second home, holiday home, being refurbished etc. so they can be easily checked. (Stick)

3. Slap a vacant property tax of 5% (similar to Washington D.C.) and applied monthly (5% / 12) on all vacant properties in the state until they are permanently occupied. (Stick)

4. Slap a 10% annual tax on all sites with planning permission. Also applied on a monthly basis from the moment they are granted planning permission until they are built upon and sold. (Stick)

5. Apply a similar tax on all land that is zoned residential in high demand areas but they haven't yet applied for planning permission. (Stick)

6. Back up all the above with the possibility of a compulsory purchase order.

I'd agree with most of that but apply it to RPZs. Taxing empties or holiday homes in Longford and Caherdaniel would be counterproductive.

I'd also scrap the rent caps in RPZs - let the market fix the rent.

woejus

cnocbui wrote: »

Karl Mark has rissen from the dead, unfortunately.

His brother Peter will be along shortly to give all landlords a haircut. A haircut... I'll get me coat

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the solution is very simple.

1. Remove all taxation on profits for the building of all three-bed semi detached units that are sold for under €150k. A lower tax on all units that are sold for under €200k etc. That's the carrot.

...

I'll take 4. When can you deliver?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I'd agree with most of that but apply it to RPZs. Taxing empties or holiday homes in Longford and Caherdaniel would be counterproductive.

I'd also scrap the rent caps in RPZs - let the market fix the rent.

Ah caherdaniel, I look forward to it in august. 7 days of sunshine last year

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Ah caherdaniel, I look forward to it in august. 7 days of sunshine last year

Cracking spot. Airbnbs and holiday homes have their place for sure - it's just not in D2.

fago

Anyway back to statistics. CSO PPR report reflects a recovery in final Q 2020

Dipping into the figures a bit more the recovery seems to be driven by new builds, with 2nd hand relatively static YoY.

New build annual increase 2%, existing .2%

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/newandexistingdwellings/

Perhaps 2nd hand starting to reflect the higher renovation costs which I know has caused sales to fall through.

decreds

Cyrus wrote: »

bravo

and why did they fall slowly rather than trigger larger falls as you suggested may happen now?

Probably due to the fact we weren't in the middle of a pandemic and staring down the barrel of the biggest recession in history.

MacronvFrugals

If ever in any doubt never forget vested interests control more levers of power than we'd ever like to admit in this state.

PAC to probe temporary school accommodation following €56m spend over two years


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40225622.html

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Have you ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect?

so which is it, you arent as smart as i think you are or im not as smart as i think i am,

make up your mind

and if you want to question my intelligence just come out and do it rather than try to be snide like that.

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

Singapore?

have you seen property prices in singapore? presume you are being faecitious

Cyrus

decreds wrote: »

Probably due to the fact we weren't in the middle of a pandemic and staring down the barrel of the biggest recession in history.

well that remains to be seen now doesnt it, tales of our demise have been circulating since march last year yet the world hasnt ended yet.

and id argue we are at the tail end of the pandemic.

combat14

and the warning about the sustainability of the state"s future debt repayments sagely commence


Historically low interest rates will not last forever - Makhlouf
Central Bank governor says State must plan its return to a more sustainable footing


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/historically-low-interest-rates-will-not-last-forever-makhlouf-1.4483026?mode=amp

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

so which is it, you arent as smart as i think you are or im not as smart as i think i am,

make up your mind

Hard to make up my mind without understanding the point you are trying to make that is so obvious.

Out of interest, why did you edit your post from "i dont think i need to spell it out?" to ""the point i'm making is obvious."

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Hard to make up my mind without understanding the point you are trying to make that is so obvious.

Out of interest, why did you edit your post from "i dont think i need to spell it out?" to ""the point i'm making is obvious."

i felt it flowed a little better :pac:

let me know when you decide, ill wait with bated breath

HansKroenke

I think the Mahklouf warning is not something to worry about in the next two years. We will have explosive economic growth for a few years post-pandemic including inflation which will then need to be tempered. There is so much State and Central Bank interference in the market, I nearly think it is protected from a crash as a result unless they somehow, suddenly pulled out (which is of course not likely). As an individual I'm just paying down as much of my debt (i.e. car loan) as I can and saving to buy while the sun shines, waiting for a time when the gap between buyers and sellers is not so imbalanced as it has been the past year (meaning an 18 month minimum wait time from now, but targeting 24 months as a more realistic timeline targeting as long a fixed term rate as we can).

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i felt it flowed a little better :pac:

let me know when you decide, ill wait with bated breath

Sure, I can let know when you explain the obvious point you were making, I'll wait with bated breath :rolleyes:

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

have you seen property prices in singapore? presume you are being faecitious

Huh? I don't think you understand what you are talking about then. My suggestion to you would be to look into how the housing market works there.

cnocbui

SmokyMo wrote: »

Huh? I don't think you understand what you are talking about then. My suggestion to you would be to look into how the housing market works there.

Go on, how does it work?

Singapore home prices rose the most in more than two years in the final quarter of 2020, as speculation mounts that the government may impose measures to cool the market.

Property values increased 2.1% in the three months ended Dec 31, Urban Redevelopment Authority figures showed Jan 22. That is unchanged from the preliminary estimate earlier this month and the biggest gain since the second quarter of 2018, when prices climbed 3.4%.

A third consecutive quarter of price gains underscores resilience of the Singapore property market during the city’s worst recession. Home sales have also increased, climbing the most in six months in December.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/property/singapore-home-prices-rise-amid-property-curbs-speculation

SmokyMo

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the Mahklouf warning is not something to worry about in the next two years. We will have explosive economic growth for a few years post-pandemic including inflation which will then need to be tempered. There is so much State and Central Bank interference in the market, I nearly think it is protected from a crash as a result unless they somehow, suddenly pulled out (which is of course not likely). As an individual I'm just paying down as much of my debt (i.e. car loan) as I can and saving to buy while the sun shines, waiting for a time when the gap between buyers and sellers is not so imbalanced as it has been the past year (meaning an 18 month minimum wait time from now, but targeting 24 months as a more realistic timeline targeting as long a fixed term rate as we can).

Argument can be made that inflation is already rampant. From housing, financial markets, commodities, services and recently stretching to food as well.

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

Huh? I don't think you understand what you are talking about then. My suggestion to you would be to look into how the housing market works there.

explain it to me then, i understand there is some state support mechanics, but im not sure exactly how it works as we have an office over there and a lot of people in their 30s still live with their parents so its not helping them.

also according to this its one of the most expensive cities in the world, property prices v income.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

Just read about it, its interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_housing_in_Singapore

but hasnt dont anything to curb high prices for those that dont qualify it seems. also singapores approach to law and order lends it self a lot better to this kind of set up than here, they have ethnicity quotas etc and there are proper penalties for anti social behaviour.

SmokyMo

cnocbui wrote: »

Go on, how does it work?

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/property/singapore-home-prices-rise-amid-property-curbs-speculation

Sorry, what point are you making here? Just random extract on price increase for last 3 month.

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

explain it to me then, i understand there is some state support mechanics, but im not sure exactly how it works as we have an office over there and a lot of people in their 30s still live with their parents so its not helping them.

also according to this its one of the most expensive cities in the world, property prices v income.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

I am not sure about your anecdotal evidence of office workers unless they are cheap labour migrants but 97.9% home ownership among its population.


Original question was which country doesnt treat house assets as a speculative assets, I suggested Singapore.

HansKroenke

SmokyMo wrote: »

Argument can be made that inflation is already rampant. From housing, financial markets, commodities, services and recently stretching to food as well.

Yes, I agree. The CPI being used as a barometer is a scam by governments to not have to spend as much money. But I think the governments and central banks cannot do anything until we are out of the covid woods.