FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Nqp15hhu

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Your obsession with warm sectors is fascinating

I’m sorry?

TheMilkyPirate

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I’m sorry?

Don't be sorry. You just seem to bring up warm sectors in nearly every post i see from you, Just an observation :pac:

ninebeanrows

I said earlier than sometimes the EC follows the GEM

They couldn't be farther away today....

EC @240hrs


GEM @240hrs

Kermit.de.frog

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

EC not really buying it, failing to build proper upper level ridge over Greenland

It's a step forward on this morning though, more amplified. Be interesting to see the ensemble later.

JanuarySnowstor

Great uncertainty continues with ecm and gfs very different. The fact that the para is also saying no Greenland high leaves us very unclear of the route forward!!
For me I would have expected greater upgrades over the weekend considering the background signals.
A bust is as likely as a Greeny high

lostweekend3

Yep lots of uncertainty. By Wednesday we will have a much clearer picture. My hunch is that the ECM will come on board. Patience is a.... and all that

nacho libre

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

I think Stratospheric effects are kicking in now.
Notice our main kickers, the Arctic high and Russia low creating retrogression at just 150hrs.

This sets the wheels in motion for perhaps something a little special again, watch and wait.

Yes, the effects of the SSW seems to be kicking, yet most of the models are not firming up on the idea of Greenland blocking. After the SSW in 2018, the models firmed on a severe cold out break fairly quickly and stuck to it.
We are not seeing that so far this time around.
For whatever reason up to this point a Greenland high has been elusive this winter. The theme has been for a high to try to go north before toppling. The GEM scenario could see an end to this. It's a fantastic scenario and would likely lock in cold.

Too bad the ECM does not back it.

Rock Lesnar

Reversal wrote: »

Meh the GFS lo Res will never properly model lake effect precip off the Irish sea

Ah right, thats why i rarely take a look in here, no idea hi res, low res, i stick to the whats happening now, ha

Mount Vesuvius

nacho libre wrote: »

Too bad the ECM does not back it.

ECM is an outlier back end of run.

Mount Vesuvius

That kicker is strong and easterlies extend from top of stratosphere. This will throw some models off until it fully grasps.
We can see here between 60N and 90N at 144 HRS




And up it goes with the ridging in the lower strat. This will follow to Atlantic height rises towards Greenland.

Kermit.de.frog

We should have a much clearer picture by June.

Mount Vesuvius

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We should have a much clearer picture by June.

The Darkman is coming out in you again

JanuarySnowstor

I wonder is there a small chance the Scandinavian high is being under modelled and it eventually becomes the way forward. It's getting more pronounced at the day 5 mark and would lead to a much faster evolution to deep cold!!

Years of watching these things unfold tells me this Scandi option is much more of a threat than it may look!

Say my name

I don't really get the doom and gloom.

There's a few of the models now showing snow in the extended forecasts.
There's different perpetuations of it and the gfs this evening has a large frontal event on the end of the run to the gem just throwing down showers from the northwest on it's run.
But the two have cold air toppling over from Russia and Scandinavia that just barely reaches us and mixes with the Atlantic precipitation.
It's always knife edge but sure if it was certain there'd be no interest.

But to me the forecast looks snowy....If you don't look at the mild ones.:D
I'd be 80% certain we'll have snow ploughs on the roads before spring.

Gonzo

very underwhelming pub run, nowhere nearly as cold or snowy as the 12z. By next weekend we should know if were in for a treat or a mixture of mild and cool spells instead.

pauldry

Yes pub run on GFS is atrocious but maybe the pub run is default to go the opposite of the daily runs.

lostweekend3

Gonzo wrote: »

very underwhelming pub run, nowhere nearly as cold or snowy as the 12z. By next weekend we should know if were in for a treat or a mixture of mild and cool spells instead.

Probably a good thing. When it’s amazing it’s nearly always followed by disappointment the following morning.
Tomorrow’s 0z and 6z runs will probably be much better for cold.

nacho libre

Too much energy in North America it looks like to me which will inhibit GL heights. Even if we manage to eek out a Scandi High, i don't think it will last long. We need a Greenland High for a sustained cold spell. For all the strat charts suggesting heights should build to the north west, i am just not convinced when we see North America go cold. This is the problem when a part of the vortex displaces to the North Atlantic. Maybe there will be big upgrades in the next few days, but i am not as confident about that happening now.

Artane2002

unfortunately the trend this evening has been in the wrong direction. the only positive I can come up with at the moment is that the GEFS 18z mean looks better than the 12z one. still waiting for the ensemble set to come out in graph form for comparison purposes.

Gonzo

probably the poorest set of GFS runs in several days. The pub run is an outlier for mild. However on many of the runs the freezer has shifted with more of a direct hit for eastern Europe with very little action west of the UK mainland. There are still a few that bring the freezer to us but fewer than earlier.

I wouldn't be too overly worried just yet, wait a few more days to see do we get a consistent breakthrough.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

probably the poorest set of GFS runs in several days. The pub run is an outlier for mild. However on many of the runs the freezer has shifted with more of a direct hit for eastern Europe with very little action west of the UK mainland. There are still a few that bring the freezer to us but fewer than earlier.

I wouldn't be too overly worried just yet, wait a few more days to see do we get a consistent breakthrough.

I'm clutching at straws here but I actually think they're slightly better than the 12z ones. the mild cluster is smaller and less mild and there's slightly more members breaching the -10c mark.

edit: looking at it again it's actually looking closer to the 06z than the 12z to me. I've added them to the post. the image will change to the 00z set once they come out though.

Tyrone212

Gonzo wrote: »

probably the poorest set of GFS runs in several days. The pub run is an outlier for mild. However on many of the runs the freezer has shifted with more of a direct hit for eastern Europe with very little action west of the UK mainland. There are still a few that bring the freezer to us but fewer than earlier.

I wouldn't be too overly worried just yet, wait a few more days to see do we get a consistent breakthrough.

Yeah I agree. I think it'll be up and down for the next couple of days so I won't be too reactionary yet ha

JCX BXC

And, it's the pub run.

lucernarian

Cork2021 wrote: »

Interesting from Matt Hugo

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/1347945616693993473?s=21

Matt Hugo has made so many calls in the past a stopped clock is right twice a day and all that

Mount Vesuvius

Would bank this evolution for 10 days time. Atlantic ridging looks the form horse and then wants to collapse. Anyway lets get this week out of the way first and hopefully all will still be looking good.



Gem looks to find similar route

sicknotexi

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Would bank this evolution for 10 days time. Atlantic ridging looks the form horse and then wants to collapse. Anyway lets get this week out of the way first and hopefully all will still be looking good.



Gem looks to find similar route

Gfs para is even better. Has us buried. A historic weather event for sure if that came to pass.

Mount Vesuvius

sicknotexi wrote: »

Gfs para is even better. Has us buried. A historic weather event for sure if that came to pass.

Haven't looked at it, nice one.

Mean GFS is acceptable for me

sicknotexi

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Haven't looked at it, nice one.

Mean GFS is acceptable for me

The icon and the gem were good runs as well this morning. Need the ECM to come on board now.

Zogabomb

Looks like the pendulum was swung again this morning. I can't post charts but ECM has a push of heights into Greenland at 192 so it's an improvement on last night. They all agree on heights in or around Greenland at that timeframe so that is a positive.

The Rollercoaster is on it's way back up again....

Hopefully things have calmed down over on Netweather, There was bloodshed there last night!

Kermit.de.frog

Everyone try to remain calm!