FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

sicknotexi wrote: »

Another downgrade for Thursday's snow on the ECM. Brings it in much later and doesn't last as long as it's 00z run.

All in all this week has been a flop in my eyes. Disappointing but it's only weather.

The next Met Eireann update will look rather different now. Cold gone from most of the UK too. A poor run so far.

TheMilkyPirate

nacho libre wrote: »

The next Met Eireann update will look rather different now. Cold gone from most of the UK too. A poor run so far.

I wouldn't imagine so. If you compare the 00z and 12z on meteologix the 00z certainly had heavier precip over a wider area for a time but the differences aren't too substantial in the whole. There are still a lot of areas under snow for 10 hours +

If it were to verify of course.

nacho libre

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

I wouldn't imagine so. If you compare the 00z and 12z on meteologix the 00z certainly had heavier precip over a wider area for a time but the differences aren't too substantial in the whole. There are still a lot of areas under snow for 10 hours +

If it were to verify of course.

Yes, its good initially for Thursday and into Friday, but the mild wins out quicker in the end is what i meant. So in that regard the update will change.

Elmer Blooker

nacho libre wrote: »

The next Met Eireann update will look rather different now. Cold gone from most of the UK too. A poor run so far.

I can't understand how a ME forecast issued as recent as 5pm today says the cold may hang on in eastern areas on Sunday when all models show the Atlantic well in control by then?

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I can't understand how a ME forecast issued as recent as 5pm today says the cold may hang on in eastern areas on Sunday when all models show the Atlantic well in control by then?

The update is not factoring in the latest ECM run.

lolie

Not a promising forecast at 6.55 from Siobhan.
She even mentioned what sounded like 'Gropal', nobody tell GL.

Link to Villain on the radio this morning https://www.todayfm.com/podcasts/dermot-dave/ever-heard-of-graupel-the-new-weather-term-we-all-need-at-the-moment

Slashermcguirk

Would be big egg in the face for met Éireann if this doesn’t deliver big snow. The update on Claire Byrne show really dialled up the snow over the coming days.

I still think there could be a fair bit of snow on the way though

lolie wrote: »

Not a promising forecast at 6.55 from Siobhan.
She even mentioned what sounded like Gropal.

lolie

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Would be big egg in the face for met Éireann if this doesn’t deliver big snow. The update on Claire Byrne show really dialled up the snow over the coming days.

I still think there could be a fair bit of snow on the way though

Further north and east maybe, I'm not to hopeful of much falling here as per the Aperge and Ecm.
We had 4cm on the ground this morning so can't be to disappointed although a lot had thawed by this afternoon.

Humberto Salazar

ECM gets milder every run. The daffodils will be in full bloom by the weekend.

nacho libre

Worse still there is not a day 10 chart to hopecast over. We may well not get another cold spell to see out February. Well i suppose its good news for those who enjoy mild south westerlies.

Slashermcguirk

If this week doesn’t deliver the big snow, happy enough for it to warm up and for spring to come. At least I was lucky enough to have that really nice surprise Ninja snow event a couple of weeks ago in D5.......That was quality and got about 3-4 days of snow out of it.

Hopefully still a surprise to come this week nonetheless. Was still a better winter than the last couple with about 5 snow days

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I can't understand how a ME forecast issued as recent as 5pm today says the cold may hang on in eastern areas on Sunday when all models show the Atlantic well in control by then?

Extraordinary that amateurs with only access to meteociel, wetterzentrale etc could see the end of this insipid 'cold' spell before professional meteorologists with all the data that they have available?

snowgal

what way are the charts looking for long term? I cant believe Im saying it, but Im actually ready for some spring weather.

Gaoth Laidir

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Extraordinary that amateurs with only access to meteociel, wetterzentrale etc could see the end of this insipid 'cold' spell before professional meteorologists with all the data that they have available?

Only after the event can any criticism be aportioned. Until then, let's see what happens. It's not all about reading models, you know. Sometimes they're wrong. I still would not be surprised to see the cold push back further than the models are showing. I said it two days ago and I still think it's possible.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS messing around with the scandi high in FI on the 6z again. This is as close as we get at 12 days

nacho libre

Well, the para is my new favourite model now. It would be nice if the ECM comes around to the same idea this evening. I must say it was looking bleak before last nights GFS Run. I don't think the cold will last longer than Saturday now, but just maybe the cold will return after mid month.

Gonzo

one more attempt at trying to get decent cold and snow into the country might happen before the end of February but seeing how tame all attempts have gone this winter and the fact that it's been generally a chilly and very wet Atlantic dominated winter, at this stage i'm more than happy to just let it go and have a lengthy period of dry and mild weather instead with plenty of sunshine, we really need that at this stage. A repeat of Spring 2020 is now more needed than ever.

There are hints again at things going colder from the 24th of February which is the doorstep of Spring. At this stage i'd be happy to put winter to rest and leave it till winter 2021/2022, it's been a long and very tiring winter.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

one more attempt at trying to get decent cold and snow into the country might happen before the end of February but seeing how tame all attempts have gone this winter and the fact that it's been generally a chilly and very wet Atlantic dominated winter, at this stage i'm more than happy to just let it go and have a lengthy period of dry and mild weather instead with plenty of sunshine, we really need that at this stage. A repeat of Spring 2020 is now more needed than ever.

There are hints again at things going colder from the 24th of February which is the doorstep of Spring. At this stage i'd be happy to put winter to rest and leave it till winter 2021/2022, it's been a long and very tiring winter.

The Para would bring in colder air well before the 24th.
It's doubtful we will get a repeat of Spring 2020 this year given all the warmings we've had in the Stratosphere, it could well be a delayed spring this year as a consequence. I am up for one more chase, as it's a long time to wait till next winter. Even if we don't get anymore snow after this weekend, i'd happily welcome a return of an easterly that delivered more days like today. The other days were just a bit too cloudy, but still much better than our usual Atlantic rubbish.

Does the Para FI ever verify?

Denny61

Gonzo wrote: »

one more attempt at trying to get decent cold and snow into the country might happen before the end of February but seeing how tame all attempts have gone this winter and the fact that it's been generally a chilly and very wet Atlantic dominated winter, at this stage i'm more than happy to just let it go and have a lengthy period of dry and mild weather instead with plenty of sunshine, we really need that at this stage. A repeat of Spring 2020 is now more needed than ever.

There are hints again at things going colder from the 24th of February which is the doorstep of Spring. At this stage i'd be happy to put winter to rest and leave it till winter 2021/2022, it's been a long and very tiring winter.

I concur with you 100 % we don't need snow or bad weather of any type..especially in our current situation..covid wise ..we need nice mild dry weather and lovely spring for our overall mental well-being ...

TheMilkyPirate

Denny61 wrote: »

I concur with you 100 % we don't need snow or bad weather of any type..especially in our current situation..covid wise ..we need nice mild dry weather and lovely spring for our overall mental well-being ...

You, not we. Plenty of people prefer snow and frosty weather. Not myself but plenty do.

nacho libre

AuntySnow wrote: »

Does the Para FI ever verify?

Pesky little details, when it's showing what we want. It was supposed to be verifying fairly well up to day 5 a while ago.

Also, milkypirate you make a good point, it could well be argued this week's chase has been a needed distraction, and that it has actually been good for some peoples sense of well being during our current circumstances. Hopefully the next couple of days will make the chase worth it!

lucernarian

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Extraordinary that amateurs with only access to meteociel, wetterzentrale etc could see the end of this insipid 'cold' spell before professional meteorologists with all the data that they have available?

Are you arguing with yourself there?

Slashermcguirk

I agree, bring on a spring like 2020 on the weather front, sunny and dry. This winter has been a strange one, far too wet for my liking. On the slip side I have woken up to snow on the ground about 6 times here in D5 including the fantastic ninja snow event a few weeks ago. To have that 5 hours of consecutive heavy snowfall was fantastic to be out in and it lasted the ground for a few days, was about 6cm of snow. That saved the winter for me and overall we have had a lot more snow than the last couple of winters. It’s the rain and damp this winter outside of that which did my head in.

It would be just typical that we will get snow heading into St Patrick’s when we probably just want warmer weather at that point. A real mixed bag of a winter, it promised a lot more than it gave but I suppose some is better than none when it comes to snow.

Gonzo wrote: »

one more attempt at trying to get decent cold and snow into the country might happen before the end of February but seeing how tame all attempts have gone this winter and the fact that it's been generally a chilly and very wet Atlantic dominated winter, at this stage i'm more than happy to just let it go and have a lengthy period of dry and mild weather instead with plenty of sunshine, we really need that at this stage. A repeat of Spring 2020 is now more needed than ever.

There are hints again at things going colder from the 24th of February which is the doorstep of Spring. At this stage i'd be happy to put winter to rest and leave it till winter 2021/2022, it's been a long and very tiring winter.

Rebelbrowser

nacho libre wrote: »

Pesky little details, when it's showing what we want. It was supposed to be verifying fairly well up to day 5 a while ago.

Also, milkypirate you make a good point, it could well be argued this week's chase has been a needed distraction, and that it has actually been good for some peoples sense of well being during our current circumstances. Hopefully the next couple of days will make the chase worth it!

100%. I had a kid with a cough (nothing else) since Monday. Got him tested yesterday and negative result today. It was great in the meantime to be looking at relatively unimportant models to distract from the household drama.

I also thought it was good of the HSE to turnaround the whole GP to test to result in 26 hours - I think they were mindful of tomorrow's potential snow event and that it would have been a great cruelty to have had the whole Rebelbrowser family locked up during same awaiting a test result! In fact i took little interest in tomorrow's potential snow up to now as I thought we were all locked up for it. Now i'm back all in!:D

Nqp15hhu

I personally am not keen on a warm spring. It usually results in a cool and wet summer. And that’s the last thing I need with travel restrictions

Dazler97

Here does anyone remember in 2018 when we had that snow, there wasn't really a spring it more less just turned to summer in like the April

EDIT: woops I posted in the wrong thread

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

We've had heights to our north or around that area pretty much all winter. and nothing but fleeting wet/semi-wet snow 'events' and mediocre temperatures pretty much throughtout. I say enough. It is time for the sky to thunder and roar.

Well , hopefully the high would deliver this time - something like this:

Brendan offaly

nacho libre wrote: »

Well , hopefully the high would deliver this time - something like this:

Why.??
It’s getting too late in the season . The evenings are longer the sun is higher and warmer. It’s time for spring and let the winter go. The temps in that chart are the same as now.

Snowc

Denny61 wrote: »

I concur with you 100 % we don't need snow or bad weather of any type..especially in our current situation..covid wise ..we need nice mild dry weather and lovely spring for our overall mental well-being ...

Last night after the 9 o clock news the weather forecaster said she had good news for Friday it with will be 5 degrees but wet Its 2 degrees and dry now, I know what I would prefer