Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

UAEguy2020

aloooof wrote: »

It really isn't always NZ tho. Wasn't last year the first time we met them in the RWC since 1995? The second time we've ever come up against them?

The previous RWC it would have been NZL if we came 2nd.

aloooof

UAEguy2020 wrote: »

The previous RWC it would have been NZL if we came 2nd.

But we didn't. Because we had a 2015 version of France in our group. Which kinda undermines your point as well.

ArmaniJeanss

Deleted User wrote: »

Quarters
NZ v IRE (NZ)
SA v FR (SA)
AUS v ARG (AUS)
ENG v WAL (ENG)

Semi
SA v NZ
AUS v ENG

Final
SA v ENG

That still looks wrong. Winners of A1B2 and A2B1 won't meet in semi's.
It usually swaps at that stage to play the opposite half.

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

That still looks wrong. Winners of A1B2 and A2B1 won't meet in semi's.
It usually swaps at that stage to play the opposite half.

I'm just going to give up at this whole prediction game so...!

UAEguy2020

aloooof wrote: »

But we didn't. Because we had a 2015 version of France in our group. Which kinda undermines your point as well.

Oh, did we play France 2015 in a QF?

Sabre0001

And one time we got Wales and got knocked out We can make excuses for exits no matter what happens - we lost to Japan (and let's face it, most of us would have thought going in that we'd a handy enough group...especially as #1 ranked team) - and Russia came close to upsetting them). Therefore got NZ rather than SA (who didn't set the world alight for a lot of the WC).

It's the top 8, and while there are "easier" draws on paper we don't know how the next few years are going to pan out. Argentina are off the back of a Tri Nations with a win against NZ and two draws against Aus, for example.

nc6000

We have been beaten in RWC quarter finals by Australia twice, Wales twice, France, Argentina and New Zealand. Only once has the team who beat us gone on to win the tournament like Australia in 1991 - that's also the only occasion where the team who beat us made the final.

aloooof

UAEguy2020 wrote: »

Oh, did we play France 2015 in a QF?

Here's what you said:

UAEguy2020 wrote: »

You never see us get a group with the 2019 version of France for instance its always NZL or a team in excellent form.

If you mean in QF, fair enough, but still point stands, we've only met NZ twice.

Jump_In_Jack

So we just need to beat South Africa in the pools, then New Zealand (assuming they lose to France in the pools), then Australia (assuming they beat Wales and Argentina), then France in the final (assuming they beat England in the other semi).

So just need to beat SA in the pools, NZ in the qtrs, Aus in the semis, and France as hosts (after they knock out England) to win the final!

UAEguy2020

aloooof wrote: »

Here's what you said:



If you mean in QF, fair enough, but still point stands, we've only met NZ twice.

I’m just going to report you for being a WUM and be done with it.

awec

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

So we just need to beat South Africa in the pools, then New Zealand (assuming they lose to France in the pools), then Australia (assuming they beat Wales and Argentina), then France in the final (assuming they beat England in the other semi).

So just need to beat SA in the pools, NZ in the qtrs, Aus in the semis, and France as hosts (after they knock out England) to win the final!

All teams that we've beaten in the recent past.

It's too early to be getting the excuses in. Our World Cup record is embarrassing, a semi final absolutely must be the goal for this one.

We know we can beat the Six Nations sides, we do it all the time. It's all well and good beating the SH teams in Autumn games with only pride at stake, it's time we finally beat one of them in real competition.

Cosmo Kramer

In terms of the arguments about us getting tough draws:

2007: we got an awful draw and also underperformed massively at the tournament.

2011: we got a great draw and blew it.

2015: we got a great draw but the scheduling killed us. Argentina got their tough group game out if the way the first weekend, we had an injury nightmare against France just a week before the quarters and it killed us.

2019: we got a horrible draw in terms of quarter final opponents. NZ or the eventual winners. But we were hopeless at the tournament anyway.

2023: Possibly the worst draw we have ever had. NZ or the hosts in the quarters, a complete disaster.

So basically the only time we really got a kind draw was 2011 and we blew it. It was more the scheduling than the draw that screwed us in 2015. But obviously we have been very poor at a lot of the tournaments, particularly 2007 and 2019 even taking account of difficult draws.

QF exit (at best) pretty much guaranteed in 2023.

CMcsporty

A
1. France
2. NZ

B
1. SA
2. Ireland

C
1. Australia
2. Wales

D
1. England
2. Japan

1/4
AUS v Jap (AUS)
SA v NZ (NZ)
Eng v WAL (Eng)
FR v IRL (FR)

1/2
Aus v NZ
Eng v Fra

Final
NZ v France

Winner
France

Jump_In_Jack

The fixtures might have a big bearing on it.
We don't want a must win game against Scotland on the final round and have New Zealand and France playing off against minnow teams for instance.

laguacamaya

Christ, the amount of people relying on the luck of the draw to see us having a successful WC is ludicrous...On a going day (and 3 years being a long time..) France would have the beating of NZ, and we, in turn, could do a number on SA...(we could, of course, also lose to Scotland...)

aloooof

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

In terms of the arguments about us getting tough draws:

2007: we got an awful draw and also underperformed massively at the tournament.

2011: we got a great draw and blew it.

2015: we got a great draw but the scheduling killed us. Argentina got their tough group game out if the way the first weekend, we had an injury nightmare against France just a week before the quarters and it killed us.

2019: we got a horrible draw in terms of quarter final opponents. NZ or the eventual winners. But we were hopeless at the tournament anyway.

2023: Possibly the worst draw we have ever had. NZ or the hosts in the quarters, a complete disaster.

So basically the only time we really got a kind draw was 2011 and we blew it. It was more the scheduling than the draw that screwed us in 2015. But obviously we have been very poor at a lot of the tournaments, particularly 2007 and 2019 even taking account of difficult draws.

QF exit (at best) pretty much guaranteed in 2023.

Even in terms of 2019, we beat South Africa 38-3 in the Autumn (2017) after the draw took place. I don't really remember it being considered horrible at the time. But that just shows how quickly things can turn around.

Cosmo Kramer

laguacamaya wrote: »

Christ, the amount of people relying on the luck of the draw to see us having a successful WC is ludicrous...On a going day (and 3 years being a long time..) France would have the beating of NZ, and we, in turn, could do a number on SA...(we could, of course, also lose to Scotland...)

The reality is though, we're just not one of the top four teams in the world at moment, maybe that will change in three years but it's hard to see it right now. So we would need a lucky break to make the semis. We definitely haven't had that today.

swiwi_

I have to say, I wouldn't at all mind if France won their home tournament. Probably the best side never to have won, given their 3 final appearances to date. I'm generally in the anyone but England camp TBH.

UAEguy2020

laguacamaya wrote: »

Christ, the amount of people relying on the luck of the draw to see us having a successful WC is ludicrous...On a going day (and 3 years being a long time..) France would have the beating of NZ, and we, in turn, could do a number on SA...(we could, of course, also lose to Scotland...)

The issue is we will need to take our 30 minute nap in the first half of the QF and it would be best if our opponent isnt out of sight by the time we wake up.

rudiger2.0

Is it a bit weird that the semi finals don't mix up the groups, as in you could have one with two teams from the same group? Or is that the norm?

nerd69

Assuming we get out of the group france and nz are likely to be top two in the world at that stage

nc6000

rudiger2.0 wrote: »

Is it a bit weird that the semi finals don't mix up the groups, as in you could have one with two teams from the same group? Or is that the norm?

Teams from the same group cannot meet again until the final.

thomond2006

Our previous failures at RWCs have far more to do with Ireland themselves than the bloody draw.

aloooof

UAEguy2020 wrote: »

I’m just going to report you for being a WUM and be done with it.

I don't know why you've taken issue with me pointing out that we've only gotten NZ twice, but hey, do what you need to do....

TRC10

We got "handy" draws in the last 2 world cups for all the good it did us. We're capable of beating all those teams. But we need to start planning for this NOW. I'm not saying chuck out anyone over 30, but selection has to be with an eye on the tournament from now on if were to have any chance. Andy Farrell needs a good six nations or his time is up IMO. Over the weekend we learned that the 4 provinces are far better coached than the Ireland team. With a world class coach and 2 years prep, theres no reason we cant do a job on any of those teams with the player pool we have. Unfortunately, we don't have a world class coach.

molloyjh

My take on the KOs is:

QF1: Australia-Argentina
QF2: South Africa-France

QF3: England-Wales
QF4: New Zealand-Ireland

SF1: Australia-South Africa
SF2: England-New Zealand

Final: South Africa-New Zealand

A lot can change between now and then of course. As aloooof mentioned, we didn't think SA was a bad draw initially for 2019.Then our form went to crap and they started to get their act together.

The interesting thing about this draw is that, aside from England, there are no guaranteed pool winners. France at home and getting their act together are drawn against a NZ side that are currently looking somewhat vulnerable. South Africa would fancy their chances in Pool B, but they would need to maintain their form and it remains to be seen where we will be in 3 years. We have serious question marks over our squad though so South Africa are rightly going to be favourites. And Pool C has 2 teams who look like shadows of their former selves at the moment. We simply have no idea where either wil be come the RWC.

Theres a strong chance of some real movement in the above KO games. Its about as wide open as it can get right now. It'll be interesting to see what, if anything, has changed between now and then.

But yeah, thats not a great draw for us. Its hard to see a path to the SF let alone a Final. But then, England at this stage are the only ones with a handy route to a SF. NZ have to play France and could then end up facing SA in the QF. South Africa will face either France or New Zealand in the QF. I'd be inclined to agree with bilston. Lets just focus on the 6Ns and see where we are in 2023.

Buer

nerd69 wrote: »

Assuming we get out of the group france and nz are likely to be top two in the world at that stage

In fairness, that's a big assumption. We don't even know which players will be still playing. NZ are now having to enter full rebuild mode over the next 2 years.

Whitelock, Smith, Moody and Coles are all potentially gone by 2023; they'll all be 35 or older. Smith and Whitelock have been huge for NZ over the years. Barrett will be 32 and unlikely to have the same pace. He might have even lost his spot by then given he's now in the back three.

As I said elsewhere, France are as likely to completely implode and sack their coach as they are to be the best in the world in 3 years.

molloyjh

TRC10 wrote: »

We got "handy" draws in the last 2 world cups for all the good it did us. We're capable of beating all those teams. But we need to start planning for this NOW. I'm not saying chuck out anyone over 30, but selection has to be with an eye on the tournament from now on if were to have any chance. Andy Farrell needs a good six nations or his time is up IMO. Over the weekend we learned that the 4 provinces are far better coached than the Ireland team. With a world class coach and 2 years prep, theres no reason we cant do a job on any of those teams with the player pool we have. Unfortunately, we don't have a world class coach.

This is hilarious. Select based on a tournament 2 1/2 years away but don't dare suffer a drop in performance or you're out. Gas. Set up to fail is the term that springs to mind.

errlloyd

thomond2006 wrote: »

Our previous failures at RWCs have far more to do with Ireland themselves than the bloody draw.

I completely agree, but it is a monkey on the back so if there was a nice easy way to get the monkey off the back I'd take it. Take an easy one, so it's less of a mental hurdle when the tricky one comes.

No one was complaining that we beat the ABs in the "AIG Not Important out of the Window Soldier Field Chicago Challenge Match". But as soon as it was done it was a massive ****ing relief.

Podge_irl

Buer wrote: »

As I said elsewhere, France are as likely to completely implode and sack their coach as they are to be the best in the world in 3 years.

With a not inconsiderable chance of doing both simultaneously.