Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

ACitizenErased

Breaking news just now: Pfizer and Biontech have today applied to the European Medicines Agency for conditional marketing authorisation (EUA).

seamus

landofthetree wrote: »

It only took 14-15 days to go from 300 approx to 1000 last time.

The "turning an oil tanker" analogy is the best one when it comes to this virus. When you first turn the wheel, you can barely even feel the ship moving at all.

Case numbers don't change on a whim. The seeds are sown and don't sprout for 14-21 days.

So *if* we see an upward change in case numbers, it won't be till December at the very earliest.

By that point they will still have been on a continuous downward trend from where we are now.

If we take the worst case scenario where cases stay flat till the 15th and then begin a sharp upward trend, you're still talking about New Year before we're back in 4 digits.

More likely, with hospitality closed until Friday we won't see any remarkable change in cases caused by today's easing of restrictions.

We *may* see small bump in numbers around the 25th as the impact from opening restaurants is felt. But we know level 3 general works, so it won't be as bad as expected.

The most noticeable jump in cases will be around the first week in January as the impact of opening up on the 18th is felt. Imposing tighter restrictions on the 6th then should (in theory) ensure that we get cases back down and under control before we see any serious problems emerge.

The wildcard here is peoples' behaviour. If people throw caution to the wind and go "ah shure it's Xmas, we can lock down in January", then the spike in early January could be huge.

If people accept that this is a one-year deal and make a good faith effort to stick with the guidelines, then any increase in cases should be manageable.

robfowler78

Just wondering what people’s opinion / expectations are with vaccines around the corner and with experts saying they won’t eliminate COVID what daily numbers will be exceptable to people to open back up to some normality. I would imagine if a country like England had our daily numbers they would be happy to open up to relative normality with a vaccine slowing transmission. What would our number be with our population size.

landofthetree

landofthetree wrote: »

It only took 14-15 days to go from 300 approx to 1000 last time.

It will take the best part of 14 days for the change in restrictions to play through in the data, our 7 day average is at 260 and it took a full month for our 7 day average to go from 260 to peak during September and October, so if things go back to the way they were at that stage it will take 4 to 6 weeks to return to 1000 cases per day

seamus

robfowler78 wrote: »

Just wondering what people’s opinion / expectations are with vaccines around the corner and with experts saying they won’t eliminate COVID what daily numbers will be exceptable to people to open back up to some normality. I would imagine if a country like England had our daily numbers they would be happy to open up to relative normality with a vaccine slowing transmission. What would our number be with our population size.

It's not so much about numbers as it is about the impact on healthcare.

If our vaccination programme had reached 90% of healthcare workers & vulnerable people, then we could easily tolerate 1,000 cases per day while vaccination continues. We'd still have relatively few hospitalisations.

SusanC10

seamus wrote: »

The "turning an oil tanker" analogy is the best one when it comes to this virus. When you first turn the wheel, you can barely even feel the ship moving at all.

Case numbers don't change on a whim. The seeds are sown and don't sprout for 14-21 days.

So *if* we see an upward change in case numbers, it won't be till 15th January at the very earliest.

By that point they will still have been on a continuous downward trend from where we are now.

If we take the worst case scenario where cases stay flat till the 15th and then begin a sharp upward trend, you're still talking about New Year before we're back in 4 digits.

More likely, with hospitality closed until Friday we won't see any remarkable change in cases caused by today's easing of restrictions.

We *may* see small bump in numbers around the 25th as the impact from opening restaurants is felt. But we know level 3 general works, so it won't be as bad as expected.

The most noticeable jump in cases will be around the first week in January as the impact of opening up on the 18th is felt. Imposing tighter restrictions on the 6th then should (in theory) ensure that we get cases back down and under control before we see any serious problems emerge.

The wildcard here is peoples' behaviour. If people throw caution to the wind and go "ah shure it's Xmas, we can lock down in January", then the spike in early January could be huge.

If people accept that this is a one-year deal and make a good faith effort to stick with the guidelines, then any increase in cases should be manageable.

This makes a whole pile of sense to me. Well written. Thanks.

pc7

Anyone know the current turnaround times for tests in Dublin? Thanks

Plumbthedepths

FinglasFollain wrote: »

Exactly. Can’t wait for the hysterical twitter posts - “look at queues, there’s going to be 20,000 deaths because a few people only distanced 1.5m outside Penney’s.

This pandemic has taught us that a lot of people don’t care about what others need to keep sane and how they provide. If some people’s sanity is resorted by going to the shops, then great. If some people can get clothes cheaper, that’s great. I know some people can’t fathom why people need to leave their house, but you do you, and let people do what they’re allowed to do.

Thread already started. ;-)

robfowler78

seamus wrote: »

It's not so much about numbers as it is about the impact on healthcare.

If our vaccination programme had reached 90% of healthcare workers & vulnerable people, then we could easily tolerate 1,000 cases per day while vaccination continues. We'd still have relatively few hospitalisations.

But say we reported 1000 cases a day and hospitals were relatively few would people except that. At what point would we just report COVID the
Same way we do any other illness. I can’t see people been easy to switch back to normal if we still report cases etc.

robfowler78

robfowler78 wrote: »

But say we reported 1000 cases a day and hospitals were relatively few would people except that. At what point would we just report COVID the
Same way we do any other illness. I can’t see people been easy to switch back to normal if we still report cases etc.

I think that the focus will move from hospital pressures to the risks of ‘long Covid’ among the young. And NPHET will continue to push for restrictions on that basis

Russman

robfowler78 wrote: »

But say we reported 1000 cases a day and hospitals were relatively few would people except that. At what point would we just report COVID the
Same way we do any other illness. I can’t see people been easy to switch back to normal if we still report cases etc.

I don't think it'll ever be reported just like any other illness, its too unique. I think when/if enough people are vaccinated we'll hear very little about it, but when we do it'll be flare ups or outbreaks in certain places that will make the news.

robfowler78

Russman wrote: »

I don't think it'll ever be reported just like any other illness, its too unique. I think when/if enough people are vaccinated we'll hear very little about it, but when we do it'll be flare ups or outbreaks in certain places that will make the news.

That makes some sense as it’s been engraved now I think in peoples minds. I suppose kind of like measles you hear out brakes every now and then.

seamus

robfowler78 wrote: »

But say we reported 1000 cases a day and hospitals were relatively few would people except that. At what point would we just report COVID the
Same way we do any other illness. I can’t see people been easy to switch back to normal if we still report cases etc.

Reporting on it will be a bit more like meningitis; young people dying are newsworthy, nothing else is.

There'll be so few serious cases that most people won't even get tested for it. It'll be just a bit of a 'flu. As the IFR hits the floor, testing will be rolled back. Only serious cases will get tested for; just like the 'flu. Everyone else told to go home and go to bed.

There will probably continue to be the odd serious case and a few deaths, but nothing insane. Once a year The Sun will get some mileage out of a tragedy of a young person dying from it, but that's about it.

robfowler78

seamus wrote: »

Reporting on it will be a bit more like meningitis. There'll be so few serious cases that most people won't even get tested for it. It'll be just a bit of a 'flu. As the IFR hits the floor, testing will be rolled back. Only serious cases will get tested for; just like the 'flu. Everyone else told to go home and go to bed.

There will probably continue to be the odd serious case and a few deaths, but nothing insane. Once a year The Sun will get some mileage out of a tragedy of a young person dying from it, but that's about it.

Hopefully and that’s what I think but it might take a bit of PR to turn peoples minds away from the daily consumption of numbers and cases

eagle eye

Plumbthedepths wrote:

What did government and Nphet think would happen by closing non essential retail 9 weeks before Christmas? A phrase joined our lexicon in the last few months 'pent up demand'. The word idiot is being applied to the wrong people.

Opening up now was the stupid decision and not closing which was necessary.

Plumbthedepths

eagle eye wrote: »

Opening up now was the stupid decision and not closing which was necessary.

As with every post from you let's agree to disagree.

weldoninhio

spookwoman wrote: »

Body integrity or not, you may just have to get a vaccine cert for travel. Example is Polio, still active in Pakistan and in 2014, the WHO made it mandatory for all people traveling from Pakistan to carry a polio vaccination certificate. If we want to go to some places we have to get a load of jabs against the local diseases. Most people have no problem getting vaccinated against mumps, measels, whooping cough and what not for their kids. Why not against covid?
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/pakistan-resumes-polio-vaccination-after-4-month-hiatus/1916188

Polio vaccine - created 65 years ago. 65 years of studies on the long term side effects.

Covid - created this year. 0 years of studies on the long term side effects.

giveitholly

eagle eye wrote: »

Opening up now was the stupid decision and not closing which was necessary.

Yeah great idea,let all those businesses go bust to keep the curtain twitchers happy,sure who gives a damn about their livelihoods and families

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Polio vaccine - created 65 years ago. 65 years of studies on the long term side effects.

Covid - created this year. 0 years of studies on the long term side effects.

Lets wait 65 years then.

What are these long term side effects of vaccines that don't present themselves within a short period of time of administering the vaccine?

marno21

weldoninhio wrote: »

Polio vaccine - created 65 years ago. 65 years of studies on the long term side effects.

Covid - created this year. 0 years of studies on the long term side effects.

Yes but they didn’t wait 65 years to start vaccinations did they?

And 65 years ago people weren’t locked in their homes gazing at the walls all day to stop polio spreading.

eagle eye

SusanC10 wrote:

This makes a whole pile of sense to me. Well written. Thanks.

It's just bluster. There is no way to gauge properly what's going to happen.

I think, based on my own opinion of the masses, that we'll hit 6% before Christmas.
I'm being conservative with that guess. It's a guess just like anybody else because we don't know how crazy it's going to be with Christmas shopping.
We could easily see a 2% jump in 14 days time. It could stay the same of people were sensible or if shops are very strict with the numbers they allow in.

weldoninhio

Deleted User wrote: »

Lets wait 65 years then.

What are these long term side effects of vaccines that don't present themselves within a short period of time of administering the vaccine?

Lets ask those who were administered Pandemrix? Plenty of drugs were passed and caused horrible side effects, Thalidomide etc

eagle eye

Plumbthedepths wrote:

As with every post from you let's agree to disagree.

It makes no sense to blame the government for locking down when out infection rate was 7%.

TonyMaloney

seamus wrote: »

We *may* see small bump in numbers around the 25th as the impact from opening restaurants is felt. But we know level 3 general works, so it won't be as bad as expected.

No, we know that level 3 worked amazingly well once and didn't really work well at other times.

Level 3 requires a lot of compliance and buy-in from the public as unlike level 5, very little is actually enforced. Nothing shuts except for some pubs.
We went into level 3 with Holohan and co calling for level 5. It was a scary time, and I'm sure that increased compliance.

Dublin and Donegal went into level 3 in mid September and the effects were negligible. And that was back when the weather was better.

I do not believe we have the panacea. We didn't find the magic config of restrictions. It was and is much more complicated than that.

Plumbthedepths

eagle eye wrote: »

It makes no sense to blame the government for locking down when out infection rate was 7%.

It made no sense to close non essential retail only to create a panic buying situation so close to Christmas. As I said agree to disagree.

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Lets ask those who were administered Pandemrix? Plenty of drugs were passed and caused horrible side effects, Thalidomide etc

I think that there has been a bit of scientific process in the decades between them and now

spookwoman

weldoninhio wrote: »

Lets ask those who were administered Pandemrix? Plenty of drugs were passed and caused horrible side effects, Thalidomide etc

There is always a risk, ever read the pamphlet that comes with tablets? 65 years ago we didn't travel as much and something like covid would have taken a lot longer to spread. We saw it here in Ireland how a family, 1 of them a doctor managed to infect staff at a hospital and god knows how many more.
It just proves how important vaccinations are these days.


from CDC
There is solid medical and scientific evidence that the benefits of vaccines far outweigh the risks. Despite this, there have been concerns about the safety of vaccines for as long as they have been available in the U.S. This page will explain past vaccine safety concerns, how they have been resolved, and what we have learned.


https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html

eagle eye

Plumbthedepths wrote:

It made no sense to close non essential retail only to create a panic buying situation so close to Christmas. As I said agree to disagree.

No, I don't agree to disagree.

Opening up now is the problem. As I said at the time we should have put plans in place for the reopening to ensure we didn't have crazy numbers in shops.
A simple system of a maximum number allowed in shops and bookings taken both online and over the phone would avoid the panic.
What we've done now is crazy, we shouldn't have opened this early and we should be organised. Instead we are just letting the virus run wild until Christmas.

hmmm

marno21 wrote: »

Yes but they didn’t wait 65 years to start vaccinations did they?

Let them sit around for years in lockdown waiting for Youtube to sign-off on the vaccines.

If they think vaccines are dangerous, wait till they hear about Covid.

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Lets ask those who were administered Pandemrix? Plenty of drugs were passed and caused horrible side effects, Thalidomide etc

The vaccine that is still on the market to protect against H1N1 if its circulating and other vaccines are not available? The one the contained a protein from the H1N1 virus? A protein within the H1N1 virus that can also triggers narcolepsy on infection in the absence of vaccine? The one where a spike in Narcolepsy was observed in China and Taiwan after the pandemic started but prior to vaccine rollout? The one that triggered the condition at a rate of 0.005%?