Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

hynesie08

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

I’m not even sure the conspiracy theories fourm would welcome this level of nonsensical fiction.

Creative writing might be able to come up with some good stuff from your lockdown fantasies though.....

Beasty

Ivor Cummins views already being discussed in this thread so threads merged

hynesie08

hynesie08 wrote: »

Creative writing might be able to come up with some good stuff from your lockdown fantasies though.....

Ive only dealt in fact from day one on this topic - I’ve been pretty much spot on with everything I’ve said and predicted. Lockdown 2 which we will soon enter being one I was laughed at, told never ever again etc yet here we are....

hynesie08

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Ive only dealt in fact from day one on this topic - I’ve been pretty much spot on with everything I’ve said and predicted. Lockdown 2 which we will soon enter being one I was laughed at, told never ever again etc yet here we are....

Army on the streets
Forced vaccinations
Gardai having power to enter private residence
An armed irish border
Full lockdown like new zealand....

Yeah, all facts..... Any students been expelled yet noxtradamus?

ArthurDayne

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Ive only dealt in fact from day one on this topic - I’ve been pretty much spot on with everything I’ve said and predicted. Lockdown 2 which we will soon enter being one I was laughed at, told never ever again etc yet here we are....

“Told never ever again yet here we are”

One cannot help but wonder then why people continue to advocate lockdowns.

Captain_Crash

I’ve been following Ivor for a while now and I find his videos interesting and certainty worth discussion. There are some things he says which I think are slanted to his views (I.e. the number of false positives in today’s video, in which he doesn’t cite where he got his numbers from) but they are certainly eye opening numbers.

Now, is the data he is providing accurate? I don’t know, but it’s publicly available so I’d imagine it’s easily verifiable.

The fact he provides his data, stands by it, and talks the viewer trough it is a reason I think he should be listened to.... which is more than can be said for NPHET and the government, who provide almost zero data other than literal positive test results and deaths!

hynesie08

hynesie08 wrote: »

Army on the streets
Forced vaccinations
Gardai having power to enter private residence
An armed irish border
Full lockdown like new zealand....

Yeah, all facts..... Any students been expelled yet noxtradamus?

You are trying to attribute some of the things I called for with me predicting them, that’s quite the error.

I wouldn’t discount all of the things on that list happening either btw in some form or other.

The gardai having power to enter was only shot down at the last minute too, it nearly did happen.

ben.schlomo

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

You are trying to attribute some of the things I called for with me predicting them, that’s quite the error.

I wouldn’t discount all of the things on that list happening either btw in some form or other.

The gardai having power to enter was only shot down at the last minute too, it nearly did happen.

You've been predicting a lockdown since we reopened. You've been wrong everytime, as has been pointed out to you numerous times. Keep it up though Noxtradamus, you'll get it right one day yet and you can have your I told you so party then.

CruelSummer

I found Leo Varadkar's piece in the Independent somewhat reassuring today. Well balanced while setting out the stall of where the Government intend to go...I also found Míchael Martin's interview reassuring. No rush to a level 5 just yet, the Government doing their best to hold their ground for now. This is a welcome change in dynamic, instead of just leaks to media, NPHET tweets and the likes. We have communication to the public from Míchael and Leo. Good to see Paul Reid out also, I think ICU capacity could come under pressure in the coming weeks and I hope they have a plan with the Governmnet.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/education/education-officials-pushing-for-schools-to-stay-open-39608940.html

This paragraph was interesting in Leo's piece:
"Before we consider pushing the button on a circuit break, there are a few things we need to think through and questions we need to be able to answer.

For example, what's the objective? Is it to get to 200 cases a day, 100 cases a day or zero? And for how long?

What will we do to provide income support for those out of work yet again, and how can we ensure that businesses that have to close will survive to open another day?

Shutting shops and placing hundreds of thousands of people out of work was one of the hardest decisions I had to make as Taoiseach. It breaks my heart to think of it happening a second time.

Do we have a plan to reopen Ireland again if we get it right?"

drunkmonkey

charlie14 wrote: »

If you understand what herd immunity equates to it is quite simple.


To achieve herd immunity you need a percentage generally of 60-70% immune, thus providing a shield for those that have no immunity.
Attempting acquired herd immunity you are doing so by risking the lives of those who are unable to become immune for a multitude of reasons.
If you can achieve herd immunity through vaccination, you provide the same shield without risking those that are unable for whatever reason to acquire immunity.

I understand you need 60-70% immune, if you have a 100% effective vaccine very good but I don't think your going to get 60 or 70% uptake of the first vaccine or that it'll be 100% effective. Were going to need a certain amount of herd immunity.

charlie14

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I’ve been following Ivor for a while now and I find his videos interesting and certainty worth discussion. There are some things he says which I think are slanted to his views (I.e. the number of false positives in today’s video, in which he doesn’t cite where he got his numbers from) but they are certainly eye opening numbers.

Now, is the data he is providing accurate? I don’t know, but it’s publicly available so I’d imagine it’s easily verifiable.

The fact he provides his data, stands by it, and talks the viewer trough it is a reason I think he should be listened to.... which is more than can be said for NPHET and the government, who provide almost zero data other than literal positive test results and deaths!

If you just go by the NPHET quick summaries on RTE news then that in fairness is the impression you will of all the info they provide.
If you check the Covid-19 app there is a lot of info there. Daily figures not just on positive test results and deaths, but also the daily county by county numbers of positive test result, the number of tests being carried out, the number of hospital confirmed cases, daily admissions and discharges and the ICU admissions and discharges.


As too Ivor Cummins, I have already said where hr ranks in my opinion when it comes to advice on public health.
Fact checking is not his friend.

hynesie08

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

You are trying to attribute some of the things I called for with me predicting them, that’s quite the error.

I wouldn’t discount all of the things on that list happening either btw in some form or other.

The gardai having power to enter was only shot down at the last minute too, it nearly did happen.

It really really didn't, it was discussed though, but so are a lot of things.

It's astonishing that you would be in favour of this, maybe you'd feel differently if you owned your own home

Captain_Crash

charlie14 wrote: »

If you just go by the NPHET quick summaries on RTE news then that in fairness is the impression you will of all the info they provide.
If you check the Covid-19 app there is a lot of info there. Daily figures not just on positive test results and deaths, but also the daily county by county numbers of positive test result, the number of tests being carried out, the number of hospital confirmed cases, daily admissions and discharges and the ICU admissions and discharges.


As too Ivor Cummins, I have already said where hr ranks in my opinion when it comes to advice on public health.
Fact checking is not his friend.

Yes that’s true, but what I was referring to was the details of the data available, there is more data when you dig in but it’s still not answering questions that many are interested in knowing (like how many are in hospital with it vs because of it etc) that is an important data point, there are other questions too but that was an example!

With regards to your position on Ivor providing public health advice, to be fair he provides no advice and merely gives and interprets data... I’ve not fact checked him but can you provide details of any false data provided in his videos? Today’s one was the most interesting yet, and he provides and cites a lot of data! I’d be interested in knowing what data he has provided in the past that was incorrect. I’m not having a go at you or your opinion by any means by the way

TRANQUILLO

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Yes that’s true, but what I was referring to was the details of the data available, there is more data when you dig in but it’s still not answering questions that many are interested in knowing (like how many are in hospital with it vs because of it etc) that is an important data point, there are other questions too but that was an example!

With regards to your position on Ivor providing public health advice, to be fair he provides no advice and merely gives and interprets data... I’ve not fact checked him but can you provide details of any false data provided in his videos? Today’s one was the most interesting yet, and he provides and cites a lot of data! I’d be interested in knowing what data he has provided in the past that was incorrect. I’m not having a go at you or your opinion by any means by the way

this is my question also. I want someone to show me a particular stat he has made up or misrepresented. I see cries of "hes just a dietician" but that doesn't really matter if what he is saying turns out to be correct. Data is data. The messenger shouldn't matter.

charlie14

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I understand you need 60-70% immune, if you have a 100% effective vaccine very good but I don't think your going to get 60 or 70% uptake of the first vaccine or that it'll be 100% effective. Were going to need a certain amount of herd immunity.

For a start a certain amount of herd immunity is the same as being pregnant.
There is no such thing a being a bit pregnant. You either are or your not.

No country has achieved acquired immunity.
Nobody even knows how to even test for it. Sweden have been trying based on antibody tests and the results have not been within an asses roar of the % required.
Manaus, capital of Amazon state researchers publish a report 21st.Sept claiming they had 66% based on antibody test results. 25 Sept. bars, restaurants and beaches closed due to the rise in new cases.

Vaccines go through phases of development. Phase 3 with around 30,000 volunteers in all those presently at that stage. Basically that is testing what the efficiency level is as regards the level of immunity it will bestow, how long it will last and how safe the vaccine is. After that all results from all tests are submitted to the CDC to be checked and verified.
It`s the scientific approach to immunity rather than the chance your arm version of of attempting to acquire it.

.

Tenzor07

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

this is my question also. I want someone to show me a particular stat he has made up or misrepresented. I see cries of "hes just a dietician" but that doesn't really matter if what he is saying turns out to be correct. Data is data. The messenger shouldn't matter.

There's dozens of people on here copying and pasting from Google searches like mad to present what they find as facts on here to counter the various arguments, yet they will slate those who follow Ivor Cummins and call him unqualified!

There's even one dude on here Noxtradamus who thinks he can predict the future!

Rosita

CruelSummer wrote: »

This paragraph was interesting in Leo's piece:
"Before we consider pushing the button on a circuit break, there are a few things we need to think through and questions we need to be able to answer.

For example, what's the objective? Is it to get to 200 cases a day, 100 cases a day or zero? And for how long?

What will we do to provide income support for those out of work yet again, and how can we ensure that businesses that have to close will survive to open another day?

Do we have a plan to reopen Ireland again if we get it right?"

These are really obvious questions though. I'd prefer if he gave us answers.

hmmm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I understand you need 60-70% immune, if you have a 100% effective vaccine very good but I don't think your going to get 60 or 70% uptake of the first vaccine or that it'll be 100% effective. Were going to need a certain amount of herd immunity.

"Herd immunity" is what you get with a vaccine. The term "herd immunity" has been mis-used by the crackpots during this pandemic who think it can be achieved "naturally" through large-scale infections and deaths.

In particular, if immunity wears off (which it appears it might), then we need to get large-scale vaccinations done quickly so that we immediately get to the 60-80% coverage threshold that may be needed. If we let people get it in dribs and drabs "naturally", we end up with dragged-out misery of ongoing death and disease and reinfection with a reasonable chance that we never get to the magic figure where the disease itself is effectively starved of new human hosts.

The only way out of restrictions, masks, social distancing is a vaccine, and for it to be taken relatively rapidly by most of the population. If we don't get a vaccine, or if enough people don't take it, the disease will continue to circulate and will have to be controlled in other ways.

growleaves

hmmm where did you study science / epidemiology? When did you first study herd immunity or hear the term?

ArthurDayne

ArthurDayne wrote: »

“Told never ever again yet here we are”

One cannot help but wonder then why people continue to advocate lockdowns.

Because we need to get this virus under control and due a minority but a large minority who simply cannot abide by the restrictions and guidelines when we are relatively open then we have to lock down instead.

Just look at the insanity being posted here: “open up the country (absolute lunacy to even suggest this”, “herd immunity (the sign of a total looper)”, “it’s only old people who die (aside from being incorrect it’s just a sh1t way to treat older people)” and so on.

If we have any hope of getting the virus under control we need a total lockdown again as we did in March, though it could be improved by closing ports and airports too.

charlie14

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Yes that’s true, but what I was referring to was the details of the data available, there is more data when you dig in but it’s still not answering questions that many are interested in knowing (like how many are in hospital with it vs because of it etc) that is an important data point, there are other questions too but that was an example!

With regards to your position on Ivor providing public health advice, to be fair he provides no advice and merely gives and interprets data... I’ve not fact checked him but can you provide details of any false data provided in his videos? Today’s one was the most interesting yet, and he provides and cites a lot of data! I’d be interested in knowing what data he has provided in the past that was incorrect. I’m not having a go at you or your opinion by any means by the way

I have seen something along that line of being in hospital with it versus because of it. Example, as far as I recal,l was a young lad turning up at A&E with a broken leg and when tested was positive for Covid-19 so he was listed as a Covid-19 admission rather than a general admission due to a broken leg.

It made sense to me that he was listed as a Covid-19 patent and allocated (I presume) a bed in a Covid-19 ward.
I`m not being a smart ass here, but by doing that he was not going to pass on the infection or the broken leg to anyone in that ward, whereas in a general ward while he was not going to pass on the broken leg, the infection was a whole different ball game.

If you are interested in checking out Cummins and facts, take a look at Dr. Dominic Pimenta`s facebook page. He is a cardiology registrar whose fact checks t Cummins has been running from for some time.

growleaves

nox,

When did you first hear the term "herd immunity"? Which year was it, I mean?

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

nox,

When did you first hear the term "herd immunity"? Which year was it, I mean?

No idea but it was many years ago when hearing how vaccines work. The term is regularly used and used correctly when discussing the importance of vaccine uptake and why anti-vaxxers are a major danger.

You will not get herd immunity without a vaccine. Any discussion on herd immunity by spreading the virus is to be ignored and the person saying it discounted as a person to ever listen to.

hynesie08

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Because we need to get this virus under control and due a minority but a large minority who simply cannot abide by the restrictions and guidelines when we are relatively open then we have to lock down instead.

Just look at the insanity being posted here: “open up the country (absolute lunacy to even suggest this”, “herd immunity (the sign of a total looper)”, “it’s only old people who die (aside from being incorrect it’s just a sh1t way to treat older people)” and so on.

If we have any hope of getting the virus under control we need a total lockdown again as we did in March, though it could be improved by closing ports and airports too.

For the 17th time, even though you'll ignore it cause you don't actually know what you are talking about..... Then what?

If you want people to take your lockdown idea seriously, tell us how you open back up....

charlie14

growleaves wrote: »

hmmm where did you study science / epidemiology? When did you first study herd immunity or hear the term?

I didn`t but I`m guessing I know as much about it as you do.
Otherwise you would have pointed out to me where it has been achieved by being acquired.


Actually seeing as you asked, the first time I heard it in relation to Covid-19 was from those in Sweden who were attempting to achieve it. Giesecke, Tegnell etc.

hynesie08

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

No idea but it was many years ago when hearing how vaccines work. The term is regularly used and used correctly when discussing the importance of vaccine uptake and why anti-vaxxers are a major danger.

You will not get herd immunity without a vaccine. Any discussion on herd immunity by spreading the virus is to be ignored and the person saying it discounted as a person to ever listen to.

I guarantee your mother sent you to a chicken pox party when you were younger....

growleaves

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

No idea but it was many years ago when hearing how vaccines work. The term is regularly used and used correctly when discussing the importance of vaccine uptake and why anti-vaxxers are a major danger.

You will not get herd immunity without a vaccine. Any discussion on herd immunity by spreading the virus is to be ignored and the person saying it discounted as a person to ever listen to.

Almost every single pandemic in the history of mankind has died-out and ceased to be a pandemic without a vaccine. Due to a comination of innate immunity and herd immunity.

Some of the people in the public sphere discussing herd immunity are long-standing epidemiologists with decades of experience. Why would I discount them as a person 'ever to listen to'? Even if they wrong, which is possible, why would every single thing they say be disqualified from consideration?

hmmm

growleaves wrote: »

Some of the people in the public sphere discussing herd immunity are long-standing epidemiologists with decades of experience. Why would I discount them as a person 'ever to listen to'?

Name these long-standing epidemiologists who are advocating herd immunity without a vaccine?

growleaves

hmmm wrote: »

Name these long-standing epidemiologists who are advocating herd immunity without a vaccine?

You never answered my question.

Sunetra Gupta was calling for exposure of healthy and young people (young = children, adolescents, young adults and the middle aged) to the disease.

The point is you're not in a position to call someone like that a "crackpot" if you hadn't even heard of herd immunity until a few months ago.

hynesie08

hynesie08 wrote: »

For the 17th time, even though you'll ignore it cause you don't actually know what you are talking about..... Then what?

If you want people to take your lockdown idea seriously, tell us how you open back up....

I’ve explained it multiple times and I won’t do it again.

hynesie08 wrote: »

I guarantee your mother sent you to a chicken pox party when you were younger....

She didn’t, in fact one of my siblings didn’t get it until their late 20’s so my parents were not going out of their way to have us catch it.

Chicken pox is a harmless mild illness, I’ve had worse hangovers. It’s irrelevant if you get it or not.