Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

charlie14

walus wrote: »

Let it go Charlie. Let it go. When you find yourself in a hole the best thing you can do is stop digging.

It probably helps to think that if your are determined not to see the changes in the Swedish approach to dealing with this virus alright.

charlie14

normanoffside wrote: »

And what's closed?
That's right, nothing.


Sweden works on sensible advice.

Problem is they were no longer taking that sensible advice which has resulted in such an exponential rise in cases that these regions have now gone a different route.

walus

charlie14 wrote: »

It probably helps to think that if your are determined not to see the changes in the Swedish approach to dealing with this virus alright.

Charlie, I don’t see changes in Swedish approach. What they do is and has been the most sensible way of dealing with the situation as it presented itself in March. They did not overreact by locking down, they did not make other diseases more important than COVID and continued to treat other patients, they did not flush billions of euros down the drain only to find themselves in the same position as Ireland just did. They continue to give sound advise that is consistent and transparent throughout, but most importantly they trust their citizens.

Penfailed

charlie14 wrote: »

Whether it`s stage 1 or stage 3 it`s rungs on the ladder supporters of the now defunct Swedish national strategy assured us we would never see.

It's not a lockdown though...which is my point.

walus

charlie14 wrote: »

Problem is they were no longer taking that sensible advice which has resulted in such an exponential rise in cases that these regions have now gone a different route.

The rise in cases always going to be exponential when the level of immunity to contracting the virus (not necessarily getting sick due to it) is low. What do you expect it should be linear, only spreading on Mondays and Thursdays, or at full moon?

Don't Chute!

charlie14 wrote: »

Your friends and family missed a few points regarding Upsalla and the other four regions.


Avoid physical contact with people you do not live with.
Avoid organising or taking part in parties or other social activities.
Avoid using public transport.
Refrain from being in indoor environments such as shops, shopping centers, museums, gyms,swimming pools, libraries etc.with the exception of necessary visits to grocery stores or pharmacies.
Refrain from attending meetings, concerts, performances, sports training, matches and competitions.
Surely you must be able to distinguish between places being closed and using words like “avoid” and “refrain”. Surely.

I`m not looking for "a win" whatever that is supposed to mean. I am just pointing out the change in policy in Sweden now that their regions can make their own decisions as to what they feel best works for them.

The “win” I’m referring to is the fact that you and people like you desperately need/want Sweden to have gotten their response wrong and will latch onto ANYTHING that you think proves it. This is not it. No matter how much you want it to be.

normanoffside

First time I've ever seen anyone do a cost/benefit analysis of lockdowns

FintanMcluskey

normanoffside wrote: »

First time I've ever seen anyone do a cost/benefit analysis of lockdowns

Interesting bit about charities.

Covid famine is an effect of 1st countries ignoring 3rd in the response to Covid

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

First time I've ever seen anyone do a cost/benefit analysis of lockdowns

Has to be the most ridiculous piece of analysis I have ever seen. An that’s saying something with some of what is posted here

normanoffside

Deleted User wrote: »

Has to be the most ridiculous piece of analysis I have ever seen. An that’s saying something with some of what is posted here

Tell the good Professor yourself.

https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1322549310291091456

walus

Deleted User wrote: »

Has to be the most ridiculous piece of analysis I have ever seen. An that’s saying something with some of what is posted here

What’s ridiculous about it?

walus

normanoffside wrote: »

Tell the good Professor yourself.

https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1322549310291091456

If I had one wish for Santa, I’d love to see nphet’s version of this. Pretty please.

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

Tell the good Professor yourself.

https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1322549310291091456

He makes a big play on the whole false positive issue, which should have meant we were getting 100 cases a day plus in June and July. It’s a basic misunderstanding of test method validation and the implications of sensitivity and specificity. So basic, that I wonder how this chap got a primary degree let alone is a professor. But then I see his analysis a see that all his topics aim to lead to a conclusion that supports his fundamental viewpoint. The misuse of data is deliberately employed to lead the uneducated in the field to his conclusion. Probably because he genuinely holds those views, but is completely intellectually dishonest

walus

walus wrote: »

What’s ridiculous about it?

“Here’s all the bad things I posit are happening due to lockdown, don’t need evidence, just believe me, and these itsy bitsy benefits are inconsequential”. It’s polemic dressed up as analysis with a fancy flowchart

walus

Deleted User wrote: »

“Here’s all the bad things I posit are happening due to lockdown, don’t need evidence, just believe me, and these itsy bitsy benefits are inconsequential”. It’s polemic dressed up as analysis with a fancy flowchart

If I’m getting you right You seem to be in disagreement with the negative outcomes of the lockdown strategy (left hand side of the chart). Which ones of those do you think there is no proof for?

While I largely agree with the left, I thought there would have been more for the right side.

walus

walus wrote: »

If I’m getting you right You seem to be in disagreement with the negative outcomes of the lockdown strategy (left hand side of the chart). Which ones of those do you think there is no proof for?

There are negative and positive outcome. The author of that piece tipped the scales deliberately

walus

Deleted User wrote: »

There are negative and positive outcome. The author of that piece tipped the scales deliberately

Why do you think he has done it deliberately? What are the positive outcomes that you think he deliberately omitted?

If anything your comments suggests cognitive bias against the evidence/opinion that contradicts your own.

While I could add myself to the ‘benefits’ (new technologies taking hold, drone deliveries, virtual reality, flexible work) I would not see them of critical importance and would not put them in there.

Dr. Bre

funnydoggy wrote: »

The next 10 lockdowns are crucial

The next ten rolling lockdowns are crucial

Tony looking like a fool now. Thousands out of work and just 416 cases today. Level 5 wouldn’t even be showing any results yet.

Hopefully level 2 again next week.

funnydoggy

Is there any chance the reduced cases is the weekend effect, or related to the reduced swab processing? It's a great number!

Thierry12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Tony looking like a fool now. Thousands out of work and just 416 cases today. Level 5 wouldn’t even be showing any results yet.

Hopefully level 2 again next week.

Hope the gyms open soon in 4 week review, need a haircut too

alentejo

Deleted User wrote: »

Tony looking like a fool now. Thousands out of work and just 416 cases today. Level 5 wouldn’t even be showing any results yet.

Hopefully level 2 again next week.

I suspect history might judge Tony H more kindly!

Don't Chute!

alentejo wrote: »

I suspect history might judge Tony H more kindly!

Why?

alentejo

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Why?

Look at Europe now! All jumping on the bandwagon!

Kermit.de.frog

Austria the latest country to announce second national lock down. UK following later today.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/1031/1175138-coronavirus-world/

Good that Ireland got out in front and is suppressing spread now.

Our approach has been spot on.

charlie14

walus wrote: »

Charlie, I don’t see changes in Swedish approach. What they do is and has been the most sensible way of dealing with the situation as it presented itself in March. They did not overreact by locking down, they did not make other diseases more important than COVID and continued to treat other patients, they did not flush billions of euros down the drain only to find themselves in the same position as Ireland just did. They continue to give sound advise that is consistent and transparent throughout, but most importantly they trust their citizens.

You don`t see any changes from Sweden`s national strategy devised by Giesecke and Tegnell back in March!


Not only has Tegnell a few days ago thrown Giesecke under the bus,Tegnell himself was at the same time slapped down in the opening statement of one of the regional directors of health for not knowing what he was talking about in regards to that region during a press conference.

That March national strategy in March was based on three objectives none of which worked.
Acquired herd immunity a complete failure.
Protecting the vulnerable - other than comparing Sweden and Ireland on the basis of two wrongs making a right - another failure.
Economic advantage. From GDP results, the real level of unemployment when furlong is taken into account and consumer spending, again nothing.
That is not even touching on the number of deaths compared to their Nordic neighbours. Or even to Ireland where there are little similarities between the two countries.


Do not kid yourself that hospital services carried on in Sweden regardless. Like everywhere Sweden cancelled screening programs and none essential surgeries the same as everywhere else. The one place you do not want patients mixing with people with suppressed immunity mixing with those with Covid-19 is in a hospital setting.


The March recommendations now only applies to one third of their population because with the exponential rise in numbers, the authorities in five regions representing the other two thirds recognise it is not working

Micky 32

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Austria the latest country to announce second national lock down. UK following later today.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/1031/1175138-coronavirus-world/

Good that Ireland got out in front and is suppressing spread now.

Our approach has been spot on.

You seem to have a fetish about lockdowns or you’re just a WUM.

Our current drop in numbers are nothing to do with L5.

funnydoggy

I hate the "virus doesn't care about X" rhetoric. Is it just me?

charlie14

walus wrote: »

The rise in cases always going to be exponential when the level of immunity to contracting the virus (not necessarily getting sick due to it) is low. What do you expect it should be linear, only spreading on Mondays and Thursdays, or at full moon?

The cases are rising day by day. Often 50% day on day. Last week 70% more than the previous week. 3,257 yesterday and that is with Sweden being two weeks behind the rest of Europe in rising cases.



You have no idea, nor has anybody, how sick those infected are. We know that from the last wave that Sweden`s ratio of deaths to confirmed cases was over 6%. Hopefully this time it will be nowhere near that ratio, but then it very much depends who gets infected. Aged or vulnerable and deaths will be higher than young and healthy.

Ironhead93

I would hope the same, but NPHET seem to have an agenda to ruin the country as much as possible so im not sure they will do that, but they wont be able to extend it past the 6 week mark with these numbers.