Trump vs Biden 2020, Ultimate battle for the fate of our universe (pt 3)Read OP 01/11

Quin_Dub

Igotadose wrote: »

waste of $1million. Democratic party thinks it can win Texas from time to time, and it doesn't ever pay off. Plus disenfranchisement, the voting logistics (a huge state with some very remote areas), I just don't see it. Mostly this will annoy Trump but I doubt Biden wins Texas, I don't think it'll be too close.

Oh , they won't win Texas , but it's a distraction that they'll have to spend money to counter.

It's the same for places like Georgia , North Carolina and Ohio.

They'll all probably go to Trump , but he's having to spend money he doesn't really have to defend those States when the real battle is in PA and MI.

yourdeadwright

duploelabs wrote: »

How do you base this assumption that Trump will win by a landslide?

The Polls are completely outside the MOE that Trump won by in 2016, and they're not looking good for Trump at all.
Is it the spending power of Trump compared to Biden? Again Trump hasn't a bean compared to the Biden campaign?

So what is it? Have you engaged a soothsayer or hung up a piece of seaweed because every other established metric completely throws your prediction

Remember this post I think Trump will win ,

I'm not saying I want him to , i'm saying I think he will win at the polls,

duploelabs

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Remember this post I think Trump will win ,

I'm not saying I want him to , i'm saying I think he will win at the polls,

Ok, again i'll bite. What are you basing this prediction on?

mcmoustache

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Remember this post I think Trump will win ,

I'm not saying I want him to , i'm saying I think he will win at the polls,

I think that duplo is looking to see your reasoning - what it is that makes you think Trump will win. Whether it's a feeling or whether it's based on some information; that sort of thing.

Quin_Dub

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Remember this post I think Trump will win ,

I'm not saying I want him to , i'm saying I think he will win at the polls,

That's fine , but why?

What are the factors you think are going to lead to a Trump Victory in 28 Days time?

What do you believe is going to shift ~9 Million voters to change their minds between now and then?

Because that's what would have to happen to pull Biden back from where he stands today in the polls to where it landed in 2016.

ohnonotgmail

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Oh , they won't win Texas , but it's a distraction that they'll have to spend money to counter.

It's the same for places like Georgia , North Carolina and Ohio.

They'll all probably go to Trump , but he's having to spend money he doesn't really have to defend those States when the real battle is in PA and MI.

Not forgetting florida.

gmisk

Foxtrol wrote: »

They are very tight on cash at this point. Even before the money they've been siphoning from the campaign to their personal wealth, they are badly losing fundraising. Biden outraised him by $150m in August and I expect September numbers coming out soon will show an even larger difference (including influx of RBG and debate money).

Don't forgot Brad Parscale seemingly stealing about 50 million as well...lol

briany

duploelabs wrote: »

Ok, again i'll bite. What are you basing this prediction on?

I would imagine the argument is 'shy Trump voters'. This argument is impossible to disprove prior to the election as you cannot truly know what's going on in a person's head, and especially not in the heads of millions of American voters simultaneously.

However, if there are loads of shy Trump voters out there in the States, I'd love to know what they're basing their favour on. Did he bring back manufacturing jobs like he promised? Did he build the wall? Did he drain the swamp? The best I can think of is that Trump p*sses a lot of people off, which a lot of other people enjoy. If this is the top reason, then it would be pretty politically nihilistic, i.e. "I know all these politicians are liars, but I least I get to vote for someone who triggers the libs!"

Realistically, I expect a good amount of people who voted for Trump in 2016 as a punt to just stay away from the polls, given how consistently unpresidential he's been over the previous 4 years, while also not doing anything concrete to improve their lives.

francois

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Remember this post I think Trump will win ,

I'm not saying I want him to , i'm saying I think he will win at the polls,

Perhaps, but looking increasingly unlikely

Interesting analysis of the change in suburban voting patterns from AP

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-phoenix-suburbs-health-care-reform-76dea954e5f5dc13b3ad65fd29ac678c?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP%20Morning%20Wire&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers

yourdeadwright

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's fine , but why?

What are the factors you think are going to lead to a Trump Victory in 28 Days time?

What do you believe is going to shift ~9 Million voters to change their minds between now and then?

Because that's what would have to happen to pull Biden back from where he stands today in the polls to where it landed in 2016.

Don't forget the winner of the popular vote has lost the election 5 times,

Hillary being the last

The swing states are still close enough for Trump to pull it off,

There will be a huge number of Shy Trump voters as someone put it ,

It's less likely to happen but it would not surprise me


Look I hope Biden wins but iv a feeling he may not,







.

duploelabs

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Don't forget the winner of the popular vote has lost the election 5 times,

Hillary being the last

The swing states are still close enough for Trump to pull it off,

There will be a huge number of Shy Trump voters as someone put it ,

It's less likely to happen but it would not surprise me


Look I hope Biden wins but iv a feeling he may not,







.

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Given the amount of metadata, I would say this is already posted somewhere else.

Show us the polls in those battleground states that are within the MOE

Kidchameleon

The James Woods video is hilarious and its what you get if you constantly take the opposition out of context. He did not say to inject bleach, he did not ban Muslims, he did not say "it is what it is" in relation to people dying. I could go on and on, its all you have - you cannot beat him so you make up things to try gain an advantage.



You reap what you sew, creepy uncle Joe strikes again!

dark crystal

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Don't forget the winner of the popular vote has lost the election 5 times,

Hillary being the last

The swing states are still close enough for Trump to pull it off,

There will be a huge number of Shy Trump voters as someone put it ,

It's less likely to happen but it would not surprise me


Look I hope Biden wins but iv a feeling he may not,







.

I don't get this logic at all. On what planet are Trump voters shy? We've seen them loud and proud all over the shop. Flotillas, rallies, lawn signs, bumper stickers etc. They're anything but shy.

I've seen Fox news polls that have Biden way ahead. Why would an anonymous voter be shy about saying they intend to vote for Trump to Fox of all outlets?

Where's the evidence of all these shy Trump voters? If anything, they've become far more emboldened over the last four years.

duploelabs

Kidchameleon wrote: »

The James Woods video is hilarious and its what you get if you constantly take the opposition out of context. He did not say to inject bleach, he did not ban Muslims, he did not say "it is what it is" in relation to people dying. I could go on and on, its all you have - you cannot beat him so you make up things to try gain an advantage.



You reap what you sew, creepy uncle Joe strikes again!

Yes he did!

I'm calling for a complete ban on muslims entering the country
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/trumpometer/promise/1401/establish-ban-muslims-entering-us/
It is what it is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfbreIXsgIs

keep on with your fingers in your ears going lalalalala

duploelabs

Kidchameleon wrote: »

The James Woods video is hilarious and its what you get if you constantly take the opposition out of context. He did not say to inject bleach, he did not ban Muslims, he did not say "it is what it is" in relation to people dying. I could go on and on, its all you have - you cannot beat him so you make up things to try gain an advantage.



You reap what you sew, creepy uncle Joe strikes again!

OMG Look at trump talk!!!!

Faugheen

Kidchameleon wrote: »

The James Woods video is hilarious and its what you get if you constantly take the opposition out of context. He did not say to inject bleach, he did not ban Muslims, he did not say "it is what it is" in relation to people dying. I could go on and on, its all you have - you cannot beat him so you make up things to try gain an advantage.



You reap what you sew, creepy uncle Joe strikes again!

‘Misinformation is what you get if you dare curse our dear Leader!’

You have just posted saying misinformation is acceptable. Trump in a nutshell there.

Meanwhile, if anyone dares question your absolute nonsense and made-up lies, you demand links that we back it up.

Bye now.

dark crystal

Kidchameleon wrote: »

The James Woods video is hilarious and its what you get if you constantly take the opposition out of context. He did not say to inject bleach, he did not ban Muslims, he did not say "it is what it is" in relation to people dying. I could go on and on, its all you have - you cannot beat him so you make up things to try gain an advantage.



You reap what you sew, creepy uncle Joe strikes again!

James Woods?? Lol.

*Facepalms*

Overheal

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

There would be no point though really... for most people anyway.

People who hate trump, are incapable of seeing anything positive about him. They are completely blinded by hatred that has been implanted in their heads from the heavily biased media. It's textbook brainwashing and propaganda effects.

I have a cousin in the states. He's a college lecturer, and he voted trump the last time and will likely do so again this time around too. He has some very sound well thought out and logical reasons for doing so. And he's certainly not some trump-ite devotee.... it's just his considered opinion that trump is the best choice to lead the country.

This guy doesn't even tell most people that he votes trump. He hates all the tribalism and hysterical BS that surrounds everything in US politics right now. He is sensible and intelligent enough to know, that there is very little to be gained by attempting to explain his position to people who think trump is the devil... and this is someone who quite enjoys healthy constructive debates on many other topics.

He did try to get involved in some discussions around the first election, but his views were met with the usual tirade of abuse and/or ridicule by people. So he just gave up and keeps his views to himself now. When people ask what way he's voting this time, he usually just says nothing or changes the subject.

Sad really in a way I think. It shouldn't be this way in the year 2020.

I'm guessing there must be many more people like him in the US. Some of them probably just pretend that they hate trump, just so they can avoid getting dragged into the nonsense of it all.

Such as?

Kidchameleon

Kidchameleon wrote: »

The James Woods video is hilarious and its what you get if you constantly take the opposition out of context. He did not say to inject bleach, he did not ban Muslims, he did not say "it is what it is" in relation to people dying. I could go on and on, its all you have - you cannot beat him so you make up things to try gain an advantage.



You reap what you sew, creepy uncle Joe strikes again!

Not much made up in that list missus, except what your making up.

Quin_Dub

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Don't forget the winner of the popular vote has lost the election 5 times,

Hillary being the last

The swing states are still close enough for Trump to pull it off,

There will be a huge number of Shy Trump voters as someone put it ,

It's less likely to happen but it would not surprise me


Look I hope Biden wins but iv a feeling he may not,

There really won't be , there were none last time and there'll be none this time either.

This myth of the "shy voter" is just that , a myth.

Every shift in voting patterns can be accounted for in 2016.

No one lied and said they were a Clinton voter but then went out and voted for Trump.

At best , Trump voters last time around lied and said they were "undecided" when they'd really made up their minds.

In those Swing states there was an average of about 10% undecided going into the final days of the campaign in 2016 according to polling.

If you look at those swing States today , Biden is running on average at 49.1% with Trump on 44.8% , leaving ~6.1% to be allocated.

A little less than half that will go 3rd party - Maybe 2.5% all in , so there's really only about 3.5% currently claiming they are "undecided".

In 2016 Trump hoovered up the undecided bucket at about a 3:1 rate compared to Clinton.

If he did that again , hell even if they all went his way , he still loses.

He might swing Florida , North Carolina and maybe even Arizona (but I really doubt it) , but he is comfortably outside the MoE in Wisconsin , Pennsylvania and Michigan and as it currently stands he can't win in those States , even if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016.

In that Scenario , Biden wins.

Something might change in the next 4 weeks which will be reflected in the polling , but if it remains as it is today , Biden wins.

eire4

Faugheen wrote: »

‘Misinformation is what you get if you dare curse our dear Leader!’

You have just posted saying misinformation is acceptable. Trump in a nutshell there.

Meanwhile, if anyone dares question your absolute nonsense and made-up lies, you demand links that we back it up.

Bye now.

Classic 1984 Ministry of Truth speak there. As you say so rightly the president in a nutshell.

Kidchameleon

duploelabs wrote: »

I'm calling for a complete ban on muslims entering the country

Are you suggesting this is a quote of Trump? If so could you back it up or will we leave it here as demonstration of my point ie. Trump getting taken out of context?

duploelabs wrote: »

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/trumpometer/promise/1401/establish-ban-muslims-entering-us/

From your article:

Although five of the seven nations in the order have Muslim-majority populations, "that fact alone does not support an inference of religious hostility," Roberts added, saying that the policy covered 8 percent of the world's Muslim population and was limited to countries previously designated by Congress or other administrations as posing national security risks.

duploelabs wrote: »

It is what it is

That's not what he meant but there's no point arguing that with you. Believe whatever you want.

Overheal

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Are you suggesting this is a quote of Trump? If so could you back it up or will we leave it here as demonstration of my point ie. Trump getting taken out of context?



From your article:

Although five of the seven nations in the order have Muslim-majority populations, "that fact alone does not support an inference of religious hostility," Roberts added, saying that the policy covered 8 percent of the world's Muslim population and was limited to countries previously designated by Congress or other administrations as posing national security risks.



That's not what he meant but there's no point arguing that with you. Believe whatever you want.

The exact quote was “[in third person] Donald Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the United States until we can figure out what the hell is going on. It’s true. It’s true.”

But you knew that already.

Quin_Dub

Even Rasmussen weren't moved by his Triumphant return to the White House Yesterday.

Disapproval rating moves out to 54% with 48% "Strongly" disapproving.

He was at 53% Approval on September 18th.

A 9 point swing against him in about 2.5 weeks , on Rasmussen.

Sorolla

Let us get this thread back on track again

I think he will win in a landslide.
It will be a very special victory - a most beautiful thing.

He will win because he did make America great again.

Let us not underestimate what he has achieved.

Much better trade deals with the EU, Japan and yes also China.

Obama and Bush always complained about the unfavorable trade deals but never did anything to change the conditions because they believed it was not possible to change the conditions.

With these improved trade deals, Trump has significantly reduced the trade deficits with the trading partners of the US.

Trump has brought employment back into the most poorest areas of America.

Hundreds of thousands of coal miners lost their jobs when Obama signed up to the Paris climate deal.

Trump tore up this agreement and the miners are back at work again.
These guys used to vote Democrat before switching to Trump and he delivered on his promise to bring back the jobs.

They will all vote Trump.

During Trumps time in office he created more jobs than any President before him - under his watch unemployment dropped to 3%

The stock markets hit record highs

Ask anyone if they have more money in their pockets during Trumps presidency and they will all answer yes (Democrats included)

The Covid-19 virus was unexpected and destroyed a lot of these good things.

America will once again be great.
Only Trump has the vision and determination to make this happen

He is the most brave president of all time.

duploelabs

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Are you suggesting this is a quote of Trump? If so could you back it up or will we leave it here as demonstration of my point ie. Trump getting taken out of context?



From your article:

Although five of the seven nations in the order have Muslim-majority populations, "that fact alone does not support an inference of religious hostility," Roberts added, saying that the policy covered 8 percent of the world's Muslim population and was limited to countries previously designated by Congress or other administrations as posing national security risks.



That's not what he meant but there's no point arguing that with you. Believe whatever you want.

perhaps a word or two out of place

Kidchameleon

Overheal wrote: »

But you knew that already.

Well I didn't but I did some research just now and it appears you are right.

Overheal

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Well I didn't but I did some research just now and it appears you are right.

No, this is the game you play and everyone sees through it.

Rinse and repeat: you post some abjectly ridiculous claim, get called out on it, apologize for not doing research to verify it in the first place, and then you just keep going on like that ad nauseum.

Kidchameleon

Overheal wrote: »

No, this is the game you play and everyone sees through it.

Rinse and repeat: you post some abjectly ridiculous claim, get called out on it, apologize for not doing research to verify it in the first place, and then you just keep going on like that ad nauseum.

I'm trying to get to the truth, its called a discussion. I can admit when I am wrong.

froog

this is pretty damning. one of the main, if not the main promise of Trump presidency was to get america better deals around the world through his 80s style hard deal making. well.. he's been a complete and utter failure, even taking the covid period out of it.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/trump-s-tariffs-failed-to-fix-the-trade-deficit