Beef price tracker 2

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117737931#Comment_117737931

I always had to turn up all the same, after 2003 I had changed to sheep for the same reasons as the protests

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117737704#Comment_117737704

I know. I don't fault your efforts, not at all.

memorystick

i hate this new presentation. Cattle almost fat and out of test so mart not an option. I’ve 20 fleshy aa bullocks about 570 kgs. The hr are heavier. A load of Fr as well as a few sm. any quotes?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117743106#Comment_117743106

Bullocks 4.2/kg base not sure if there is anything extra if you have a double or more. Cattle in Marts are not making factory prices at present

Base price

Apparently cow prices are back for next week.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117744890#Comment_117744890

Bullocks supposed to be coming back 5 cent in a lot of places in the lower half of the country as well.

About 35k head a week being killed now and a lot of 30 month old’s coming on stream as well so unfortunately they know they’ll get away with it.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117744846#Comment_117744846

Factory fit cattle all making €100-€120 a head less than their factory value in the mart.

Anyone bringing factory fit cattle to the mart at the minute would be better off forgetting about finishing stock. It’s only messing up the prices for everyone else when the factory agents can by them for that much less. €100 a head on a 350kg carcass is the same as 28 cent less on the base price.

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117744846#Comment_117744846

Do you think they will hold at the 4.20 for long?

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745189#Comment_117745189

Do you think they will succeed with the 5 cents drop? Cattle seem to be scarce back my way, lads sold early with the good price,I suppose if they get plenty at the start of the week they will try it,age is coming again lads,lads should not panic at the start of the week if they drop them to 4.15

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745260#Comment_117745260

Unfortunately I think they will. There’s a few factors playing into it, the 30 months being the major one. Also as we know once the kill gets near the mid 30 thousand a week they get the bit of control back as they don’t mind missing out on an odd load.

The other major issue that’s not being talked about much is the problem with workers. A lot of the Eastern European workers haven’t come back to them since covid so they’re low on staff in the boning halls. This has a lot of them working at as much capacity as they can handle at the minute so I don’t think they’ll be out sourcing cattle for the next few weeks, they’ll be getting enough in without having to go looking.

Edit to add; As I said above as well the lads selling cheap cattle in the mart definitely aren’t helping either.

memorystick

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745214#Comment_117745214

A rather confusing dialogue. Are you saying that factory buyers are buying them cheaper in the marts now as opposed to quoting a price in the yard?

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745315#Comment_117745315

I wonder will the kill hit the mid 30s this week,if the numbers are slow to come out it might avert the drop, probably must of the cattle bought for next week are bought at this weeks price, another thing the weather is meant to take up from the weekend which will help the thing somewhat

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745376#Comment_117745376

Yes that’s exactly what’s happening. 650kg factory fit whiteheads are being bought for €1,300 - €1,350 in the marts.

Worst case scenario these will kill out 52% of their mart weight. That’s a 340kg carcass. At €4.20 base price and average them as grading an O=, that’s a €0.18 reduction which leaves them at €4.02. Add then the €0.20 QA and you’re up to €4.22. Multiply your 340kg carcass by €4.22 and you’re getting €1,434 in the factory. The €1300-€1,350 in the mart is a bad deal for the seller now but a great buy for the factory agent that bought her.

And them figures I’ve used are worse case scenario regards grading and killout for them weights. In reality I’d be expecting a group of 650kg whiteheads to average O+, and kill out at a minimum of 350kgs. That would bring them up another €50 - €60 in the factory.

DBK1

14BBFCD2-AB6E-47FF-A2D5-B6B788BA22B1.jpeg

A picture from the MartBids app of Birr mart last Monday. You can see the weights and money being paid. I was watching the sale online and couldn’t believe how cheap they were. I could also see who was bidding around the ring and it wasn’t farmers.

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745506#Comment_117745506

You're overegging the thing there in your last paragraph. They'd be doing well to average O= and 326 kg.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745426#Comment_117745426

I’d imagine it will this week because as you said most of this weeks stock are bought at last weeks price. Next weeks numbers are probably already filled up as well so if prices drop next week it’ll be the numbers for the following week that will tell the tale. At that stage there’ll be a lot of cattle days away from 30 months and lads will take the 5 cent less as they’ll lose 20 cent once the go over the 30 months.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745564#Comment_117745564

I don’t agree as mart weight will be less than fresh weight in your yard. It’d be a poor animal that would only kill out at 50% of their mart weight.

But even if you want to go with 326kgs and O= that values them at €1,375 in the factory. Still €75 more than they’re making in the mart.

I also left out the Hereford bonus which will add another 10 to 20 cent a kilo so even at your grade and killout we’re back over the €100 per head price differential.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745564#Comment_117745564

A load loaded and gone here this morning. A mixed bunch and wouldn’t be overly well done, got no meal since last winter but good grass most of the time. I’ll report back later in the day when the kill sheet comes in.

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745928#Comment_117745928

When did you buy these and what weights were they when you bought them?

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746014#Comment_117746014

Bought as suck calves and bucket reared.

Bass Reeves

Finished cattle in marts are 100-150 below factory price at present

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746101#Comment_117746101

Exactly, and the lads selling them either don’t need the money or don’t know anything about the value of stock. Either way these sellers are leaving it very easy for the factories to drop the prices.

kk.man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746164#Comment_117746164

In time of scarcity Factory agents haggle with their procurement managers for a much larger slice of the cake. When cattle drop they have very little room to haggle like at present. If they make a 'killing' in the mart the factory doesn't care same if they make a loss. All a procurements main worry is numbers for contracts. What I am saying is it makes little difference if lads are soft sellers in the overall scheme of things.

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746613#Comment_117746613

Numbers dictate everything, what do you reckon the numbers will be like for the next few weeks?

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746613#Comment_117746613

But if there are no soft sellers in the marts the factory agents won't pick up as many cattle there and will have to come deal with the farmer for the finished stock which leaves that small bit more power with the farmer.

I can't speak for every mart but I know in the few marts around here where I see what's happening and know the main buyers there are a few lads that are buying direct for different factories. They are loaded on lorries and straight to the lairage and are hanging up about 18 hours after they were purchased. I highly doubt buying these, at often up to €200 less than their factory value, is having no effect on the base price.

kk.man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746629#Comment_117746629

TBH I don't know. If this weather that is predicted happens farmers will be slow to move stock. IMO they are not as much cattle around this year.

kk.man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746651#Comment_117746651

What I was trying to say is that these agents operate on their own money. The factories don't take any risk with factory cattle. I know of a few agents whom were very poor after their purchase and sales were totted up. It would not be in the interest of the agent to disclose a good killing to a procurement manager.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746750#Comment_117746750

I agree however processor's know that these lads have a decent margin at present so they may apply a little more pressure on there price.

The real issue with lads selling in the .art below factory price is it is subsidizing dealers being around the ring. It not just lads buying large loads it's so lads buying 2-3 in the mart and adding them to there next load. Or buying cheap non QA slightly underfinished cattle with 70+ days on there age, especially from now on with AA's with the extra bonus for November.

locha

Anyone getting quotes for next week?

morphy87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745928#Comment_117745928

Well how did you get on with your cattle?