Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

road_high

Micky 32 wrote: »

There’s a handfull on here that are in denial regarding the economic situation alright.

More than a handful!

road_high

hamburgham wrote: »

There should be an immediate 10% minimum pay cut across the public service. This would change the mood music with regard to lockdowns, travel restrictions etc once the cost became real rather than abstract. And yes to include the saintly nurses and the rest of the health service as a huge number of them were doing next to nothing since this started.

Yes there would be uproar. But it may be very necessary and not up for discussion.
Teachers want to strike? No problem, none of you are actually in work anyhow

Spanish Eyes

I have no issue with paying a bit more, but I am not happy about paying for the scammers who just arrive here and expect it all to be sorted for them because someone said BOO to them somewhere or other.

I do realise that the UN has a refugee system in place, no bother with that at all.

It is the rest of them. Sick of it now as are many, but we are not allowed to voice an opinion at all. Well tonight here has been OK so far.

dalyboy

Micky 32 wrote: »

There’s a handfull on here that are in denial regarding the economic situation alright.

A lot of the awake posters have muted October 2020 will be the month of reckoning of the masses and they finally realise the absolute sh1t has hit the fan. Not protests but actual riots will ensue.
Will our clown show government admit mistakes,,, will they fu€k

Plumbthedepths

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I have no issue with paying a bit more, but I am not happy about paying for the scammers who just arrive here and expect it all to be sorted for them because someone said BOO to them somewhere or other.

I do realise that the UN has a refugee system in place, no bother with that at all.

It is the rest of them. Sick of it now as are many, but we are not allowed to voice an opinion at all. Well tonight here has been OK so far.

Honest question if you were living a hand to mouth existence in some African or Middle East ****hole and someone told you of a land of 'milk and honey' that will feed, house and cloth your family . Would you travel or say no I'm grand where I am?

Beasty

This is the Covid-19 forum. Please take discussion of refugees to the relevant CA thread and keep this one to the topic in the thread title

JRant

road_high wrote: »

Yes there would be uproar. But it may be very necessary and not up for discussion.
Teachers want to strike? No problem, none of you are actually in work anyhow

Everything should be on the table when it comes to making a decision but I think we know there are some sacred cows in Irish politics that won't be touched.

road_high

dalyboy wrote: »

A lot of the awake posters have muted October 2020 will be the month of reckoning of the masses and they finally realise the absolute sh1t has hit the fan. Not protests but actual riots will ensue.
Will our clown show government admit mistakes,,, will they fu€k

Well saint Leo’s musings sounded fairly gloomy.
I’d say the corporation tax and self employed returns late this year will be terrible so I’d expect a big fallout from that.
The fact they reacted so rashly with the rise in cases in LOK shoots any confidence they have a clue to bits. They jumped on the shutdown trigger immediately sending already fragile businesses into a tailspin with zero preparation.
This is the fools paradise phase. The welfare and public servant classes have escaped so far completely unscathed. But how likely is that to continue when your paymaster is €30 billion plus in the red? Very unlikely

caveat emptor

AdamD wrote: »

You put this more eloquently than I ever could. I think this is at the crux of the issue with middle-aged people shaming younger people without any sort of empathy for why they might be out socialising. I've said it before, its easy to look down on people for breaking the rules when they have minimal impact on your own life.

Who knows.

road_high

JRant wrote: »

Everything should be on the table when it comes to making a decision but I think we know there are some sacred cows in Irish politics that won't be touched.

We will see!!

caveat emptor

road_high wrote: »

Well saint Leo’s musings sounded fairly gloomy.
I’d say the corporation tax and self employed returns late this year will be terrible so I’d expect a big fallout from that.
The fact they reacted so rashly with the rise in cases in LOK shoots any confidence they have a clue to bits. They jumped on the shutdown trigger immediately sending already fragile businesses into a tailspin with zero preparation.
This is the fools paradise phase. The welfare and public servant classes have escaped so far completely unscathed. But how likely is that to continue when your paymaster is €30 billion plus in the red? Very unlikely

You are aware we are in the euro. The effective cost of borrowing is -0.5%

I wouldn’t get worried unless italy decides to jump ship. Most of the fiscal easing is directed at countries which are far worse off then our own. That doesn’t stop us availing of it in the mean time.

Someone should get an accountant to tell the Ecb you can’t just create money......it doesn’t add up!!!!
Someone has to pay.

Plumbthedepths

I'm going with Beasty's advice, however I have knowledge of how some make it here and what is involved. I'm leaving the topic now.

Spanish Eyes

So anyway, how are the restrictions going in your own area. Back on topic.

I've been to a couple of places with dear OH, but it just wasn't the same at all.

The spontaneity has gone largely now. Anyone on the same page as me?

JRant

caveat emptor wrote: »

You are aware we are in the euro. The effective cost of borrowing is -0.5%

I wouldn’t get worried unless italy decides to jump ship. Most of the fiscal easing is directed at countries which are far worse off then our own. That doesn’t stop us availing of it in the mean time.

Someone should get an account to tell the Ecg you can’t just create money......it doesn’t add up!!!!
Someone has to pay.

While the effective date of borrowing is low at the moment, the monumental collapse of the exchequer funding is a completely different animal. Regardless of what the rate is now, it will not stay like that and even a modest increase in interest rates will have huge knock on effects. We don't actually pay off our loans, just roll them over into a new finance package to keep kicking that can down the road.

caveat emptor

JRant wrote: »

While the effective date of borrowing is low at the moment, the monumental collapse of the exchequer funding is a completely different animal. Regardless of what the rate is now, it will not stay like that and even a modest increase in interest rates will have huge knock on effects. We don't actually pay off our loans, just roll them over into a new finance package to keep kicking that can down the road.

Do you think the virus is a catalyst for a debt trap?
I agree with you regarding interest rates. Mario Dragi kinda had to save the euro and said ‘what ever it takes’

If interest rates were to increase we would be in trouble, true. People in italy and Spain would starve though. Don’t think that’s on the cards right now considering the situation.

We’ll have to refinance.flr now.

Idbatterim

They may keep intetest rates low. But if the national debt figures go to outrageous proportions again, through irelands own decision making. I cant see europe going " shure tis grand" they didnt during the last bust, which was also partially outside of our control , but we were architects of our own downfall. Looks very similar to me this time around!

Idbatterim

hamburgham wrote: »

There should be an immediate 10% minimum pay cut across the public service. This would change the mood music with regard to lockdowns, travel restrictions etc once the cost became real rather than abstract. And yes to include the saintly nurses and the rest of the health service as a huge number of them were doing next to nothing since this started.

You forgot to include rte on the paycuts. Cut those parasites one percent pay tomorrow. The agend will change overnight and the current sheep will be screaming for an end to lockdown!

anto77

caveat emptor wrote: »

Someone should get an accountant to tell the Ecb you can’t just create money......it doesn’t add up!!!!
Someone has to pay.

Ordinary ppl pay for that through inflation, it’s a stealth tax on the average joe but it’s getting less stealthy...food prices are rising substantially

MadYaker

JRant wrote: »

While the effective date of borrowing is low at the moment, the monumental collapse of the exchequer funding is a completely different animal. Regardless of what the rate is now, it will not stay like that and even a modest increase in interest rates will have huge knock on effects. We don't actually pay off our loans, just roll them over into a new finance package to keep kicking that can down the road.

An economist and an epidemiologist!

There is nothing at all surprising in any of those new reports to anyone with half a of a brain. You all talk as if this was somehow avoidable. What country has avoided it?

MickeyLeari

From today’s Irish Times. Some much needed perspective.

Moving in and out of lockdown is a recipe for disaster
Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, locked down again yesterday after it emerged the country had experienced four new community transmitted cases of coronavirus, the first in more than 100 days.
Citizens were told to work from home unless they were essential workers. Schools as well as bars, cafes and restaurants were closed until at least the end of the week.
So, on the basis of four members of the one family contracting the disease, an entire city of 1.6 million people was placed back in lockdown. Is this not madness?
We can and should follow many of New Zealand’s policies – particularly the country’s testing and tracing infrastructure and prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s proactive stance and direct communications strategy.
But moving in and out of lockdown on basis of a small cluster of cases – does one family even count as a cluster? – is a recipe for economic disaster.
The initial shutdown in the Republic has already triggered a major recession, one that we have yet to feel the full extent of. Nearly 800,000 workers are still reliant on the State for income supports to get by. That’s more than one-third of the workforce.
If we take New Zealand’s example and meet these mini-outbreaks with the sledgehammer of lockdown, we will turn the incoming recession into a depression, one that involves a prolonged period of high unemployment and business closures, which will come with a health warning of its own.
Research, published in the British Journal of Psychiatry, suggests the 2008 financial crisis was linked to 10,000 additional suicides in Europe and North America.
That threat has to be at the core of the Government’s decision-making from here on in, particularly when there are just 14 confirmed Covid-19 cases in the entire acute hospital system here.
Hospital admissions have fallen dramatically in part because most of those who are contracting the disease are younger people who don’t need to be hospitalised in the same numbers.
At the outset, the public health advice was to shutdown for a set period “to flatten the curve” and then to treat resurgences or flare-ups locally via aggressive testing and tracing. This was to preserve the health service from being overwhelmed by an initial spike in cases. That’s been achieved.
Living with the virus requires a different set of policies, more nuanced ones.
Poster child
New Zealand is held up internationally as the poster child of disease containment. It took the unprecedented step of closing its borders back in February and imposing strict quarantine rules at a time other countries failed to act or even grasp the level of threat. The borders here have never been closed. Airlines just grounded their fleets as no one could travel.
New Zealand, which has a similar population to the Republic – 4.8 million versus 4.9 million – only ever reported 89 cases a day even at the peak of the pandemic: here the daily case load was over 800 at one stage.
As a result, the Republic’s official death toll is 1,773 while New Zealand’s is just 22. There’s no disputing the country’s success in dealing with the pandemic. Its decision to act early and hard meant it was the first to exit lockdown and return to normal life with full sports stadiums and open nightclubs – a situation most countries are not even close to reaching – though it has maintained strict border controls.
By the same token, the country is 4,100km away from its nearest major neighbour, Australia, and sparsely populated compared with Europe, giving it a unique advantage in containing a pandemic. The Republic, by contrast, has a porous land border with Northern Ireland, a different jurisdiction with a different disease trajectory and its own containment protocols.
Meat processing plants
The Government last week reintroduced restrictions on Kildare, Offaly and Laois, putting the three counties into a partial lockdown for two weeks on the basis of several clusters in meat processing plants.
However, it’s questionable whether workplaces in these counties with no reported cases should be closed while those in other areas with reported cases are open. Laois can feel particularly hard done by as it reported no new cases on Monday.
Dr Ronan Glynn, acting chief medical officer, admitted on Monday that these measures were “blunt instruments”.
“It’s a fallacy to think that the measures we take are nuanced,” he said.
It may be that the Government is overly concerned with the prospect of schools reopening at the end of the month and is taking no chances with these flare-ups. We must, however, get to the point where these clusters can be dealt with more surgically and without shutting the economy around them.
Might it be better to impose tougher regulations on meat processing plants generally rather than the counties that contain them? That, after all, is the policy being pursued in relation to pubs.
Living with the virus or managing it is likely to involve a prolonged period of social distancing, mask wearing and perhaps permanent changes to the way we interact in shops, at work, or in schools. To presume otherwise is foolhardy.
Even severe containment measures won’t eliminate the virus. New Zealand has just proved that. Talk of a vaccine is premature. When Ireland fully opens up, the virus will still be circulating around the globe and much of the population here will face a renewed risk of infection.
Like it or not, that’s the new normal no matter how many times you lock down.

facehugger99

anto77 wrote: »

Ordinary ppl pay for that through inflation, it’s a stealth tax on the average joe but it’s getting less stealthy...food prices are rising substantially

Agreed.

Inflation will be the 'taxation' that pays for most of this madness.

The ECB will print billions of euros and erode the value of people savings, salaries and pensions.

Every month billions are being added to our debt burden which will erode our ability to borrow and be a significant brake on our growth - by the way all you young people who've borne the brunt of the current restrictions , who've had their education, travel plans, and social lives destroyed while being constantly finger-wagged - you'll be all paying for this throughout your working lives - sorry.

There will also be huge cuts to services in this country. Most people are incapable of looking 6 months into the future, but we are in for an absolute sh;tshow in the coming years.

All of this was easily foreseeable, despite St Leo's ramblings, and most of the madness that has caused this was applauded to the rafters by the clappy-seals on here.

JRant

MadYaker wrote: »

An economist and an epidemiologist!

There is nothing at all surprising in any of those new reports to anyone with half a of a brain. You all talk as if this was somehow avoidable. What country has avoided it?

Seems it's a surprise to Leo and Co. though.

The restrictions were for far too long and the constant fear mongering has completely destroyed consumer confidence.

MickeyLeari

facehugger99 wrote: »

Agreed.

Inflation will be the 'taxation' that pays for most of this madness.

The ECB will print billions of euros and erode the value of people savings, salaries and pensions.

Every month billions are being added to our debt burden which will erode our ability to borrow and be a significant brake on our growth - by the way all you young people who've borne the brunt of the current restrictions , who've had their education, travel plans, and social lives destroyed while being constantly finger-wagged - you'll be all paying for this throughout your working lives - sorry.

There will also be huge cuts to services in this country. Most people are incapable of looking 6 months into the future, but we are in for an absolute sh;tshow in the coming years.

All of this was easily foreseeable, despite St Leo's ramblings, and most of the madness that has caused this was applauded to the rafters by the clappy-seals on here.

I don’t think we will have significant inflation unless the rest of he world starts growing and we are not.

If we do start seeing inflation (2% legal ECB target) the Germans will insist that the money printing/bond buying is stopped.

What is most worrying is the talk of austerity in the Autumn. Austerity means cuts in public sector pay (may be welcomed by some), cuts in public service numbers, and cuts in expenditure (which hit everyone). You are right it will be a sh1t show in the winter.

road_high

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I don’t think we will have significant inflation unless the rest of he world starts growing and we are not.

If we do start seeing inflation (2% legal ECB target) the Germans will insist that the money printing/bond buying is stopped.

What is most worrying is the talk of austerity in the Autumn. Austerity means cuts in public sector pay (may be welcomed by some), cuts in public service numbers, and cuts in expenditure (which hit everyone). You are right it will be a sh1t show in the winter.

It’s inevitable we will see cuts of some sort to public spending. It always happens s, this time will be no different.
A public service moratorium is a definite I would think for starters. Not sure what they’ll do with pay but a pause to those planned pay increases is extremely likely- the excuse will be easy “a significant deterioration in general public finances due to Covid 19”.
All stuff like Christmas bonus will be gone. The Covid PUP payment will be cut too. After that things get difficult and you’re into cuts to core pay and welfare rates

John O.Groats

facehugger99 wrote: »

Agreed.

Inflation will be the 'taxation' that pays for most of this madness.

The ECB will print billions of euros and erode the value of people savings, salaries and pensions.

Every month billions are being added to our debt burden which will erode our ability to borrow and be a significant brake on our growth - by the way all you young people who've borne the brunt of the current restrictions , who've had their education, travel plans, and social lives destroyed while being constantly finger-wagged - you'll be all paying for this throughout your working lives - sorry.

There will also be huge cuts to services in this country. Most people are incapable of looking 6 months into the future, but we are in for an absolute sh;tshow in the coming years.

All of this was easily foreseeable, despite St Leo's ramblings, and most of the madness that has caused this was applauded to the rafters by the clappy-seals on here.

Clappy seals? Is that what you call people who don`t agree with your biased anti authority agenda? Cop on to yourself pal.

road_high

John O.Groats wrote: »

Clappy seals? Is that what you call people who don`t agree with your biased anti authority agenda? Cop on to yourself pal.

Yep happy clappy seals. An apt description of those who accept all restrictions with zero analysis or questioning. Deluded themselves there’ll be no consequences to extended economic closures.

John O.Groats

John O.Groats wrote: »

Clappy seals? Is that what you call people who don`t agree with your biased anti authority agenda? Cop on to yourself pal.

Its a common agenda these days, if you cant counter with coherent arguments backed by fact, denigrate and dehumanise your opponent. Its transparent

John O.Groats

road_high wrote: »

Yep happy clappy seals. An apt description of those who accept all restrictions with zero analysis or questioning. Deluded themselves there’ll be no consequences to extended economic closures.

Are you another one who is anti public service, teachers, unions etc? Like your "hero" whose never ending rants you yourself have "clappy sealed" to use your charming term?

Idbatterim

Roadhigh, cant see them touching the holy grail of the welfare bonus! Last buat, they just decimated capital expenditure, with the greens propping up government, might be harder to do this time... varadkar would no doubt secretly love another election , lets just hope its not until after budget, when the sheeple realise, this wasnt some free meal ...

road_high

John O.Groats wrote: »

Are you another one who is anti public service,teachers, unions etc? Like your "hero" whose rants you yourself have "clappy sealed" to use your charming term?

No lot of my family and friends are in the PS and there’s some great people in it. I don’t take any pleasure in the cuts they and we are all facing.
The happy clappy seals come from all over society