Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Graces7

OP; there is a connection between our early and efficient lockdown and figures thereafter. Compared with eg the Uk who just let covid rip unchecked.

"Flattening the curve" worked as it was intended to.

If you really think this disease is not as serious as it is, try googling mass burials Brazil images or just looking at the UK , US or India figures including deaths.

_Kaiser_

topper75 wrote: »

Pat will present them as the voice of the 'people' sharing 'concerns'. But of course we all know that you have to be a certain type to ring/text a radio station like that.

The "best" one was the texter who complained that a Garda showed up, asked the girl behind the bar if everything was OK, and left again without any checks.

They seemed very put out that the clientele had a laugh about it afterwards.

In all seriousness, this attitude and what it says about some in our communities is deeply concerning - so driven by fear, a need to show how compliant they are, and disgusted by anyone not as bought in to it as they are that they'll "report" it on the radio.

The effects of CV-19 are not just on physical health and mortality.

_Kaiser_

Graces7 wrote: »

OP; there is a connection between our early and efficient lockdown and figures thereafter. Compared with eg the Uk who just let covid rip unchecked.

"Flattening the curve" worked as it was intended to.

If you really think this disease is not as serious as it is, try googling mass burials Brazil images or just looking at the UK , US or India figures including deaths.

Irrelevant ... whatabout over here or over there is pointless scare-mongering.

Here in Ireland there's been little to no deaths in weeks, minimal numbers in ICU or hospital generally, and most people who are catching "the virus" are recovering just fine and may not even know they had it.

That's the reality of CV-19 in Ireland these days. Yes it's still a risk to the elderly and/or those who have serious underlying conditions - but for the vast majority, there's little danger from it.

And this by the way, is a very good thing!

CBear1993

Graces7 wrote: »

OP; there is a connection between our early and efficient lockdown and figures thereafter. Compared with eg the Uk who just let covid rip unchecked.

"Flattening the curve" worked as it was intended to.

If you really think this disease is not as serious as it is, try googling mass burials Brazil images or just looking at the UK , US or India figures including deaths.

It's still at a 3% death rate worldwide. You cannot get away from that.

3 percent. And I would imagine the amount of elderly and people with underlying conditions in that 3 percent is large majority.

Take your scare mask elsewhere and do us all a favour.

Zebra3

Deleted User wrote: »

We originally went into lockdown based on models and expert advice that predicted some truly horrific doomsday like scenarios. People were thinking that the death toll in Ireland could be a 5 or even 6 figure number.

The more data we collected, it quickly started to become very clear that it was nowhere near as serious as we thought it would be. Every single stat available to us backs that up.

And yet here we are 6 months later getting ready to announce a new 9 month plan for living with Covid... A plan that I assume will include plenty of restrictions on us long into next year...

When did the goalposts move? When did we go from trying to prevent thousands of deaths to just desperately trying to keep the numbers as low as we possibly can? Why did this happen?
Is it a political thing? FF don't want to be seen as worse than FG? Or as a country we want to look as good as possible in a global event?
Is it just a lack of leadership/responsibility?
Something tells me that this new plan is just going to be more nonsense restrictions with no end in sight.

Be interesting to see if the protests this weekend get a higher attendance.

It's called political cowardice.

Politicians dug themselves into a big hole and are now afraid to say that things actually look ok and it's time to open up again.

_Kaiser_

Zebra3 wrote: »

It's called political cowardice.

Politicians dug themselves into a big hole and are now afraid to say that things actually look ok and it's time to open up again.

I reckon you definitely have a point. The economic, social and indeed cost to people's freedoms as a result of the responses have been huge.

That's not tin-foil hat stuff either. We have severely damaged businesses, livelihoods, the near-mid term economy, mental health and any health beyond CV-19 as a result and the powers that be can't come out and say that it was all unnecessary.

We got it right in March/April. Where we failed was a weak ego-driven Taoiseach (Leo) handing the decisions over to NPHET whose sole mandate is to get CV-19 to zero but without considering the factors above, and letting that group run the show for 6 months+ - long after it was clear where the real risks to health were.
Micheal Martin is no better. His goal was solely to not be the only FF leader who wasn't Taoiseach, but no plan or agenda beyond that.

Meanwhile everyone will continue to suffer to varying degrees as a result of their decisions. I fully expect we'll have yet more expensive and pointless Tribunals in the years to come when the true costs of this are known.

rob316

Closing retail for 2 months was absolutely ridiculous and totally unnecessary looking back on it. I remember people were calling for it though and more, such was the fear. You even had the likes of Conor McGregor addressing the nation that we need a full lockdown!

_Kaiser_

rob316 wrote: »

Closing retail for 2 months was absolutely ridiculous and totally unnecessary looking back on it.

Yes but at the time remember very little was really known about the impact of CV-19 and death rates were surging in places like Italy. Locking down in March was the right call.

Where we failed was not reacting just as quickly when the stats started to show what sections are most of risk, who isn't and how responses should be tailored accordingly.

Happydays2020

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yes but at the time remember very little was really known about the impact of CV-19 and death rates were surging in places like Italy. Locking down in March was the right call.

Where we failed was not reacting just as quickly when the stats started to show what sections are most of risk, who isn't and how responses should be tailored accordingly.

Agree. But it would be madness to make those same decisions again (as some propose) with the benefit of that hindsight.

rob316

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yes but at the time remember very little was really known about the impact of CV-19 and death rates were surging in places like Italy. Locking down in March was the right call.

Where we failed was not reacting just as quickly when the stats started to show what sections are most of risk, who isn't and how responses should be tailored accordingly.

Ya my problem was with 2 months, and if I remember it was in the original roadmap it would be 3 months and 4.5 months for shopping centres!

we saw the images of the army convoys full of the dead in Italy it's what we all expected but we quickly realized we weren't facing that and the powers we way too slow in reacting. I always said wherever it lands first in Europe they would be ****ed and that was Italy, it spread across central europe quickly then.

The failure was not protecting the most vulnerable and letting the rest of us get on with it. We kept been told young people are at risk its not an "old person disease", we currently stand at over 2 weeks without deaths now that the elderly are protecting themselves and its finished spreading through our care homes. The trend is the same across Europe.

_Kaiser_

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Agree. But it would be madness to make those same decisions again (as some propose) with the benefit of that hindsight.

Absolutely. At this point the response needs to shift to those who are actually at risk and encouraging them to take responsibility and steps needed to protect themselves that ultimately, I'm sure they and their GP know best - certainly far more so than Stephen Donnelly and Micheal Martin.

The rest of us need to be encouraged to likewise be sensible and be safe, but beyond that we need to be able to get back to normal life as far as possible - that means masks optional again, social distancing where practical (businesses and transport can't survive on 50% capacity/trade indefinitely), and being responsible for our own safety as well - stay home if you feel sick, get tested where appropriate etc

There will ALWAYS be - frankly - assholes who ignore the guidelines regardless, but we cannot legislate and restrict the majority of decent citizens who are at little to no risk from this to protect or address a minority. That's why we have AGS and there's any number of existing public order laws I'm sure that could be dealt with under.

It's long past time our response mirrored where we actually are and have been heading for months now with this virus. I'll keep saying it - new cases mean NOTHING. The OUTCOME of those cases is the important metric and those numbers are overwhelmingly positive since late May/early June.

Zebra3

If we are going to getting daily figures for everything covid related, can we also have the daily figures for those who die and get ill due to services not being available due to all the restrictions in place?

MadYaker

Zebra3 wrote: »

If we are going to getting daily figures for everything covid related, can we also have the daily figures for those who die and get ill due to services not being available due to all the restrictions in place?

Might be hard to quantify. I don’t work in the HSE but as I understand it most hospitals are sort of back to “normal” now. As in, it’s not like April and May where they cancelled everything non essential because they thought the hospitals would be overrun. If you look at the daily operations reports from the HSE it looks like most services have been resumed for a good while now all be it with massive waiting lists but there’s nothing new about that. A guy that works with me had an operation on his hand last week.

PowerToWait

Thread has become beyond useless.

FintanMcluskey

PowerToWait wrote: »

Thread has become beyond useless.

Fantastic insight, especially so when you have no feasible argument

topper75

rob316 wrote: »

Closing retail for 2 months was absolutely ridiculous and totally unnecessary looking back on it. I remember people were calling for it though and more, such was the fear.

The fact that there weren't significant deaths among supermarket/offlicence/newsagent workers shows that you are absolutely correct.

JDD

topper75 wrote: »

The fact that there weren't significant deaths among supermarket/offlicence/newsagent workers shows that you are absolutely correct.

I don't think that closing retail was to protect retail workers.

Closing retail was to stop people going into town on public transport, standing in queues or going into crowded changing rooms.

I think we did the right thing in March and April. I think all retail could have opened on 8 June, with the exception of pubs and nightclubs. They're the only places I can think of, apart from commuting, that you could find yourself in a really packed unventilated environment.

Do I blame the government for not opening quickly enough? Not really. I remember thinking back in March that while other European countries could opt for a more watered down lockdown, we'd have to go the full monty because our health service and capacity was way worse than your Germanys or Portugals. That idea of "we must be more conservative than our European counterparts, because if this goes bad we really won't be able to cope" filtered into our opening up policies. It may have been wrong, but it's sort of understandable.

Where we have got it really wrong is the confusing, contradictory, restrictions still in place and how those have been communicated to us. MM might as well have thrown some paint on a wall, given us the finger and said "interpret that f*ckers" and walked off, for all the clarity we've been given. Forget the golf dinner, that is where the public was lost.

Penfailed

rob316 wrote: »

Closing retail for 2 months was absolutely ridiculous and totally unnecessary looking back on it. I remember people were calling for it though and more, such was the fear. You even had the likes of Conor McGregor addressing the nation that we need a full lockdown!

Hindsight = Wonderful thing

topper75

Penfailed wrote: »

Hindsight = Wonderful thing

But - by the same token - can all misguided panic moves be ultimately justified by a lack of a crystal ball?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

We originally went into lockdown based on models and expert advice that predicted some truly horrific doomsday like scenarios. People were thinking that the death toll in Ireland could be a 5 or even 6 figure number.

The more data we collected, it quickly started to become very clear that it was nowhere near as serious as we thought it would be. Every single stat available to us backs that up.

And yet here we are 6 months later getting ready to announce a new 9 month plan for living with Covid... A plan that I assume will include plenty of restrictions on us long into next year...

When did the goalposts move? When did we go from trying to prevent thousands of deaths to just desperately trying to keep the numbers as low as we possibly can? Why did this happen?
Is it a political thing? FF don't want to be seen as worse than FG? Or as a country we want to look as good as possible in a global event?
Is it just a lack of leadership/responsibility?
Something tells me that this new plan is just going to be more nonsense restrictions with no end in sight.

Be interesting to see if the protests this weekend get a higher attendance.

You keep saying this. Multiply the mortality rate by the population of Ireland. That is a 5 figure number.

mick087

rob316 wrote: »

Closing retail for 2 months was absolutely ridiculous and totally unnecessary looking back on it. I remember people were calling for it though and more, such was the fear. You even had the likes of Conor McGregor addressing the nation that we need a full lockdown!

Yes looking at this way you really do have a very good point.
You have made a very good statement.

Just to come out with such a statement, in order to scare people into their houses is shocking stuff!

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/up-to-85000-irish-people-could-die-from-coronavirus-in-worst-case-scenario-taoiseach-indicates-as-three-more-diagnosed-39029363.html

then this
https://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/irish-news/varadkar-says-wearing-a-face-mask-would-not-be-compulsory-if-introduced-39167017.html

which turns to this

https://extra.ie/2020/06/25/news/irish-news/face-masks-compulsory-public-transport-2

and finally to this

https://extra.ie/2020/09/01/news/irish-news/stephen-donnelly-covid-19-fines

flatten the curve?? flatten the country, flatten your wages and flatten morale!

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

You keep saying this. Multiply the mortality rate by the population of Ireland. That is a 5 figure number.

We don't know the actual mortality rate and probably never will.

We do know that there is likely WAY more cases than reported. And we do know that the deaths are overstated by quite a lot.

So the mortality rate is likely way lower than you think. Obviously the mortality rate is very wrong if you think we are going to have a 5 figure number of deaths.

Regardless of what the death toll may be, we have to get on with life anyways.
Time to act like grown ups.

mick087

rusty cole wrote: »

flatten the curve?? flatten the country, flatten your wages and flatten morale!

Well this is true but people are scared of passing it on to older family members. The media has everyone running scared.
I just hope i dont catch it.

rusty cole

rusty cole wrote: »

Just to come out with such a statement, in order to scare people into their houses is shocking stuff!

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/up-to-85000-irish-people-could-die-from-coronavirus-in-worst-case-scenario-taoiseach-indicates-as-three-more-diagnosed-39029363.html

then this
https://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/irish-news/varadkar-says-wearing-a-face-mask-would-not-be-compulsory-if-introduced-39167017.html

which turns to this

https://extra.ie/2020/06/25/news/irish-news/face-masks-compulsory-public-transport-2

and finally to this

https://extra.ie/2020/09/01/news/irish-news/stephen-donnelly-covid-19-fines

flatten the curve?? flatten the country, flatten your wages and flatten morale!

That really is disgraceful!

We went into lockdown with those kind of figures in mind. 85000 could die.

And we still have a long list of restrictions 6 months later despite the fact that only 1777 died. Oh yeah... and we admitted that the number is overstated by a lot.

Del Griffith

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You keep saying this. Multiply the mortality rate by the population of Ireland. That is a 5 figure number.

If you completely disregard the profile of the unfortunate people that died with it, or apply that profile to whole population, that is.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

We don't know the actual mortality rate and probably never will.

We do know that there is likely WAY more cases than reported. And we do know that the deaths are overstated by quite a lot.

So the mortality rate is likely way lower than you think. Obviously the mortality rate is very wrong if you think we are going to have a 5 figure number of deaths.

Regardless of what the death toll may be, we have to get on with life anyways.
Time to act like grown ups.

Okay ignore the numbers to fit your own narrative. Taking the most conservative mortality rate multiplied by population multiplied by percentage needed for heard immunity is a five figure number. Add in the deaths that would have been caused by overrun hospitals. I'm all for opening up slowly but please stop spouting revisionist nonsense.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

That really is disgraceful!

We went into lockdown with those kind of figures in mind. 85000 could die.

And we still have a long list of restrictions 6 months later despite the fact that only 1777 died. Oh yeah... and we admitted that the number is overstated by a lot.

Worst case scenario. Where we go on like normal and let it ravage society. St Patricks day parade goes ahead not a bother. 85k sounds about right for a worst case scenario prediction where half the country gets it at the same time.

end of the road

patnor1011 wrote: »

Very few odd cases as happens with nearly every virus. Some people do have lasting damage from flu. Nothing to see here as absolute majority do not have any issues whatsoever.

covid is nothing to do with flue.
suppressing covid was necessary and that was what was quite rightly done so that we could get back to some sort of normality.

patnor1011 wrote: »

Vulnerable people were already excluded from some "parts of society" due to constraints their illness or age puts on them. What you are saying is absolute nonsense and reeks of entitlement attitude.

In other words, if vulnerable people cant do some things then nobody else should be allowed so? Unbelievable.



Posing like a victim fighting for some worthy humanitarian cause used to get people some points. I am as vulnerable as one can be and yet I refuse this false martyrdom being forced to absolute majority of the people. Mainly when it is pointless as I am the best judge of what is good for me and what is not.

there is a massive difference between an illness or disability putting restraints on people, then restraints put on some people because some people don't want to wear a mask or can't do without a non-food pub.
the virus had to be suppressed and restrictions had to happen to do that. that's just unavoidable, and thanks to those we are now more or less reopened, with a final few little bits reopening hopefully soon.

walus wrote: »

Restriction to think independently.

which restriction is this? can you quote the particular law that is stopping one thinking "independantly"
if you mean that you can't post your "alternative" views without challenge, well you could never do that, but that's nothing to do with laws or rules.

bucketybuck wrote: »

No social distancing. No sanitising stations. No masks. No idea. No better.

No deaths.

still doesn't mean it's fine when such things are supposed to be done and are implemented for good reason to manage things.
when it is viable and safe to remove such restrictions they will be done so, all though regularly washing one's hand is actually common sense anyway and hopefully that will be kept up long term.

Deleted User wrote: »

We originally went into lockdown based on models and expert advice that predicted some truly horrific doomsday like scenarios. People were thinking that the death toll in Ireland could be a 5 or even 6 figure number.

The more data we collected, it quickly started to become very clear that it was nowhere near as serious as we thought it would be. Every single stat available to us backs that up.

And yet here we are 6 months later getting ready to announce a new 9 month plan for living with Covid... A plan that I assume will include plenty of restrictions on us long into next year...

When did the goalposts move? When did we go from trying to prevent thousands of deaths to just desperately trying to keep the numbers as low as we possibly can? Why did this happen?
Is it a political thing? FF don't want to be seen as worse than FG? Or as a country we want to look as good as possible in a global event?
Is it just a lack of leadership/responsibility?
Something tells me that this new plan is just going to be more nonsense restrictions with no end in sight.

Be interesting to see if the protests this weekend get a higher attendance.

it would still have been serious if left unchecked, hence we put checks in to suppress and manage it.
we do know it could be serious thanks to the likes of brazil, america, and a couple of others.
evidence and data changed all the time through this, that's fine and generally seems to be what happens depending on the issue being studdied.
we already have been under a plan for living with the virus since reopening.
the lockdown suppressed the virus to a level by where only a tiny amount of restrictions were required, and with that in mind we changed to simply managing the virus as the main aims had been achieved.
even if the protests do get a few more, nobody meaningful is listening.

CBear1993 wrote: »

It's still at a 3% death rate worldwide. You cannot get away from that.

3 percent. And I would imagine the amount of elderly and people with underlying conditions in that 3 percent is large majority.

Take your scare mask elsewhere and do us all a favour.

there is no scare mask, just a post showing how what we did achieved the aims it was set out to achieve.

end of the road

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm listening to Pat Kenny here and listeners are texting in "telling tales" of pubs not enforcing food orders or wiping tables quickly enough etc.

As I said few days ago, CV-19 is the perfect environment for these curtain twitching sorts to complain about what others are "getting away with" - if they're that fearful of "the virus" they should probably not be out in a pub to be honest.

brilliant that we are being alerted of what is going on with some pubs.
those pubs are ruining everything for the majority of pubs and that is not right or fair.

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Irrelevant ... whatabout over here or over there is pointless scare-mongering.

Here in Ireland there's been little to no deaths in weeks, minimal numbers in ICU or hospital generally, and most people who are catching "the virus" are recovering just fine and may not even know they had it.

That's the reality of CV-19 in Ireland these days. Yes it's still a risk to the elderly and/or those who have serious underlying conditions - but for the vast majority, there's little danger from it.

And this by the way, is a very good thing!

pointing to countries some of which left the virus go unchecked, to show how serious things could have been if we followed the same path is not irrelevant or "scaremongering"
screaching scaremongering because one doesn't like reality doesn't make it so, i'm afraid.
the rest of your post is showing what happens when checks are put in place to suppress the virus, ultimately proving her point.

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I reckon you definitely have a point. The economic, social and indeed cost to people's freedoms as a result of the responses have been huge.

That's not tin-foil hat stuff either. We have severely damaged businesses, livelihoods, the near-mid term economy, mental health and any health beyond CV-19 as a result and the powers that be can't come out and say that it was all unnecessary.

We got it right in March/April. Where we failed was a weak ego-driven Taoiseach (Leo) handing the decisions over to NPHET whose sole mandate is to get CV-19 to zero but without considering the factors above, and letting that group run the show for 6 months+ - long after it was clear where the real risks to health were.
Micheal Martin is no better. His goal was solely to not be the only FF leader who wasn't Taoiseach, but no plan or agenda beyond that.

Meanwhile everyone will continue to suffer to varying degrees as a result of their decisions. I fully expect we'll have yet more expensive and pointless Tribunals in the years to come when the true costs of this are known.

businesses and the economy were in all likely hood going to be damaged anyway, our approach more then likely lessened it as people could at least get out to buy essential bits, the main contributers to the economy more or less kept going via the likes of working from home, etc.
we more or less have our freedoms back, having to wear a mask in doors is hardly taking one's freedom away, it's just common sense to try and minimise the spread.
the powers that be cannot come out and say that what we did was all unnecessary because it wasn't all unnecessary, most of it was absolutely necessary to originally suppress, and now simply manage the virus so we can remain open.
absolutely some mistakes were made but as i said, every country was simply learning on the job on this one, there was no time for dress rehersals or preparation.
the decisions were not handed over to nphet, nphet advised on the basis of the evidence and the government made the decisions based on that evidence.

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Absolutely. At this point the response needs to shift to those who are actually at risk and encouraging them to take responsibility and steps needed to protect themselves that ultimately, I'm sure they and their GP know best - certainly far more so than Stephen Donnelly and Micheal Martin.

The rest of us need to be encouraged to likewise be sensible and be safe, but beyond that we need to be able to get back to normal life as far as possible - that means masks optional again, social distancing where practical (businesses and transport can't survive on 50% capacity/trade indefinitely), and being responsible for our own safety as well - stay home if you feel sick, get tested where appropriate etc

There will ALWAYS be - frankly - assholes who ignore the guidelines regardless, but we cannot legislate and restrict the majority of decent citizens who are at little to no risk from this to protect or address a minority. That's why we have AGS and there's any number of existing public order laws I'm sure that could be dealt with under.

It's long past time our response mirrored where we actually are and have been heading for months now with this virus. I'll keep saying it - new cases mean NOTHING. The OUTCOME of those cases is the important metric and those numbers are overwhelmingly positive since late May/early June.

the shift to encouraging those who are at risk to take responsibility happened right from the start.
the rest of us are more or less back to normal life, masks optional was tried but the rate of compliance was not enough so they had to be made manditary so as to allow for a lesser amount of social distancing, with social distancing where practical already being the case where it genuinely isn't possible to do it.
putting a tiny restriction on the majority to manage a pandemic situation can be done and i believe could always be so, and in this case was done so that we could reopen.
our responce is mirroring where we are heading, that is why we are mostly opened and why the non-food pubs will be opening soon apparently.
i'm sure the experts are capable of determining themselves what numbers will be the metric to go by, and they will no doubt do so., so you have nothing to worry about on that score.