Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

kowloon

So I get that the cutoff time is the last second of 2020 but, effectively, when do talks stop? I assume nobody is planning on celebrating the New Year in a conference room.

Professor Moriarty

kowloon wrote: »

So I get that the cutoff time is the last second of 2020 but, effectively, when do talks stop? I assume nobody is planning on celebrating the New Year in a conference room.

General consensus is that Monday is effectively make or break time. Lots of speculation in the Brexiteer media that things can be pushed back and the EU could meet after Christmas but the EU's mood, especially in France, Belgium and the Netherlands, has hardened this week. The uncertainty is now becoming worse than the UK crashing out and the EU has other pressing problems such as Poland and Hungary.

McGiver

Infini wrote:

For me I'd rather see a no deal not because I hate the British people themselves but because I despise the conservative party and their leader's who have deliberately and intentionally led a campaign of lies, deceit and gaslighting bullshít since 2016. They spout on about "Sovereignty" but only when it applies to themselves they don't care that they're happy to walk over the COLLECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY of other's demanding economic damage on them if they don't get their own way even though this would pulverize them the worst.

They lead the campaign since Maastricht, early 90s.

trellheim

EU could meet after Christmas but the EU's mood, especially in France, Belgium and the Netherlands, has hardened this week. The uncertainty is now becoming worse than the UK crashing out and the EU has other pressing problems such as Poland and Hungary.

German twitter sentiment is trending extremely negatively. Unless Council convenes I am not sure what vdL can do but I suppose you do need fallback positions.

fly_agaric

kowloon wrote: »

I assume nobody is planning on celebrating the New Year in a conference room.

You never know at this stage. Maybe negotiations over Christmas dinner with fish on the menu? Whole thing is such a pantomime and an utter waste of time and effort. Kind of think the EU/member states should give the negotiators a well earned rest and tell the British government that the phone is engaged till next Easter at the earliest.

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

German twitter sentiment is trending extremely negatively. Unless Council convenes I am not sure what vdL can do but I suppose you do need fallback positions.

The problem is that quite a few countries believe that Barnier is already yielding too much. VDL has power but that power is subservient to nation states especially core states such as France and they are pissed off at this stage. She can make soothing noises but she can't negotiate unilaterally.

trellheim

fly_agaric wrote: »

You never know at this stage. Maybe negotiations over Christmas dinner with fish on the menu? Whole thing is such a pantomime and an utter waste of time and effort. Kind of think the EU/member states should give the negotiators a well earned rest and tell the British government that the phone is engaged till next Easter at the earliest.

Remember this, at last, is finally Brexit and the only negotiation that matters, they threw NI to the EU to get there. For the UK it makes sense to push as hard as possible here all the way to the end. this was always going to happen

fly_agaric

trellheim wrote: »

For the UK it makes sense to push as hard as possible here all the way to the end. this was always going to happen

Probably right (with this UK government + the way the nutters have taken over). They want the angriest & hardest "Brexit" possible but a fear of being blamed for consequences stopped them just walking away months ago. So the silly games carry on.

Spanish Eyes

I think there always has to be an out. A compromise or whatever you call it.

But I don't know how that can be achieved on 1 Jan anymore. But am optimistic just the same, foolish of me maybe. But we shall see.

Capt'n Midnight

breezy1985 wrote: »

Ya I would see the French as being more likely to to purposefully hold thing up to annoy the UK than wave stuff through.

I'm sure we can expect a French dockworkers strike any day now too

I think that would be very unlikely ...






.. until after the trawlers stop blocking the port protesting against any fishing deal.


And I'm not sure if the French farmers will take a turn, they used to indulge in hijacking and burning trucks.

Shelga

Is the transition period over on January 1st no matter what?

I really, really hope they don’t do some mini extension til the end of January to ratify a deal. Then another 3 weeks to iron out just a couple more things. Etc etc...

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

Is the transition period over on January 1st no matter what?

I really, really hope they don’t do some mini extension til the end of January to ratify a deal. Then another 3 weeks to iron out just a couple more things. Etc etc...

Yes, in fact. I was reading someone recently saying that trying to extend it at such short notice would be a legal minefield and virtually impossible ; it would need all sorts of agreements and ratifications from the large number of EU stakeholders (highly unlikely to happen).

Widdensushi

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I think that would be very unlikely ...






.. until after the trawlers stop blocking the port protesting against any fishing deal.


And I'm not sure if the French farmers will take a turn, they used to indulge in hijacking and burning trucks.

The French fishermen will burn the lorries first, they have a record of it, much easier than a blockade.

looksee

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Think i'm calling no deal now. Mood music not good.

It's not within the EU's, or member states like France', comprehension to accept the UK as a sovereign, independent country free to chart it's own course in the world.

The demands on fishing and the level playing field go way beyond what any self governing country would be expected to accept.

That's the simple reality of the situation.

EU needs to accept the UK is an independent country.

Kermit, please stay with me and answer this question. You are making points that news media like the Daily Mail offer, I would love if you would explain your thinking.

You say the EU cannot accept that the UK is an independent country, but it is entirely because it is an independent country, sovereign, not a part of the EU that these requirements are being put forward. If the EU were to offer a deal with no requirements on the UK they would be
1. patronising the UK (ie not accepting its independence and sovereignty)
2. seriously annoying all the EU members whose hats are still in the ring and who go along with the rules
3. upsetting all the other sovereign independent nations who have had to come to agreement with the EU in order to trade with them.

If the UK does not want to reach an agreement with the EU they are completely free, as a sovereign and independent nation to go and make agreements with other countries. Who will no doubt have similar demands.

All this is proving is that the EU, while it would be happy to deal with the UK, does not 'need the UK' as much as the UK would like to think it does.

Please explain your thinking on the subject, it is something that a surprising number of Brexit people do not seem to be able to fully comprehend.

Spanish Eyes

SNIP. No insults please.

Spanish Eyes

OK sorry about that reference that everyone knows is Brexit Central.

So where is the future for us here in Ireland, that is what I wonder about if there is No Deal.

ancapailldorcha

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OK sorry about that reference that everyone knows is Brexit Central.

So where is the future for us here in Ireland, that is what I wonder about if there is No Deal.

Give it a month. We've been waiting for the best part of 5 years now to find out both in the UK and the EU. One more month and then we'll see how much work has been done and whether or not it was worth it.

theguzman

The only acceptable way for the Brexiteers is the hardest of Brexit's, Britannia Rules the waves etc. What they are now doing and setting the stage for is to blame the EU for everything once again. The EU have already yielded far too much to them and the next thing we will see is internal EU squabbling over this. The EU cannot afford another Brexit fracture coming from the likes of Italy most likely so they must inflict the most misery on the UK as possible.

Widdensushi

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Literally roasting Les Roast Beefs

It will mean that all irish transport companies feel the need to avoid, unfortunately irish lorries have been burnt before when they were targeting the British.

Spanish Eyes

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Give it a month. We've been waiting for the best part of 5 years now to find out both in the UK and the EU. One more month and then we'll see how much work has been done and whether or not it was worth it.

Sounds like there will be a Deal so.

Reminds me of the all nighters that the Unions did here and emerged at the last minute with a deal.

Gawd help us all this time though.

Shelga

It’s 11pm on a Friday night in December and I’m watching Peter bloody Bone on Newsnight, weeks away from economic carnage. 2020 is the worst.

peter kern

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think there always has to be an out. A compromise or whatever you call it.

But I don't know how that can be achieved on 1 Jan anymore. But am optimistic just the same, foolish of me maybe. But we shall see.

i can not remember many important things in europe that were not decided past deadline at 3 o clock am.
the thing is france and some others are getting really fed up.
but still this is how it has always been working. i think at this stage i would still think the odds are higher to find a compromise than not.

CelticRambler

peter kern wrote: »

i can not remember many important things in europe that were not decided past deadline at 3 o clock am.

Matters concerning equal members, yes ; but deals with third countries are done on the basis of extended negotiations over years, not months, so there's no reason for anyone to stay up till silly-o'clock in the morning. And they don't.

Spanish Eyes

peter kern wrote: »

i can not remember many important things in europe that were not decided past deadline at 3 o clock am.
the thing is france and some others are getting really fed up.
but still this is how it has always been working. i think at this stage i would still think the odds are higher to find a compromise than not.

Oh hopefully and it is all Hubris from our nearest neighbours. I live in hope.

WHL

After 4 years what have either side conceded that didn’t suit them. EU decided ( only in the last few days) to pay back 15% of fish value (I think). Doesn’t sound like a lot. On the other hand what has the U.K. conceded to the EU in exchange for tariff-free access. Not sure if it is anything in real terms. Kind of wondering what has agreed so far (with 26 days to go) that wasn’t an easy win.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OK sorry about that reference that everyone knows is Brexit Central.

So where is the future for us here in Ireland, that is what I wonder about if there is No Deal.

Economists think it would be a setback for Ireland but not disastrously so. It would definitely cause job losses and hit exports to a certain degree but nothing remotely on the scale of 2008-09.

tanko

Shelga wrote: »

It’s 11pm on a Friday night in December and I’m watching Peter bloody Bone on Newsnight, weeks away from economic carnage. 2020 is the worst.

When the BBC are talking to Katya Adler blathering on about whether glasses are half full or half empty and what concessions the EU need to make i see they have a clock counting down the days, hours and minutes to the end of the transition period:rolleyes:

Strazdas

peter kern wrote: »

i can not remember many important things in europe that were not decided past deadline at 3 o clock am.
the thing is france and some others are getting really fed up.
but still this is how it has always been working. i think at this stage i would still think the odds are higher to find a compromise than not.

It's a fair point but these were all fellow EU members and it was entirely in their interest to reach a compromise.

The Brexit brigade are a much more hostile bunch and don't even try to hide their dislike of the EU.

jelem

Strazdas wrote: »

Economists think it would be a setback for Ireland but not disastrously so. It would definitely cause job losses and hit exports to a certain degree but nothing remotely on the scale of 2008-09.

the irish economists are government friendly, take note of that.
no deal and eu will demand ireland places tarrifs and ireland has
only one option which is leave eu.
borris only got elected as he was only one in uk eyes whom will get it done.
the uk will not give away and will not take any notice of the main arguers france.
it will be a "hidden eu deal" or no deal as eu is basically france and germany.
face facts if eu applies tarrifs and causes delay at ports then uk will do same and ireland is sunk.
recent media showed uk setup for haulage delays "lorry parks etc." what has the irish government done?.
i would have expected to see announced over rte how wexford and waterford have been rebuilt\organised
for traffic and more container and transport shipments but only heard some minor words.

Infini

jelem wrote: »

the irish economists are government friendly, take note of that.
no deal and eu will demand ireland places tarrifs and ireland has
only one option which is leave eu.
borris only got elected as he was only one in uk eyes whom will get it done.
the uk will not give away and will not take any notice of the main arguers france.
it will be a "hidden eu deal" or no deal as eu is basically france and germany.
face facts if eu applies tarrifs and causes delay at ports then uk will do same and ireland is sunk.
recent media showed uk setup for haulage delays "lorry parks etc." what has the irish government done?.
i would have expected to see announced over rte how wexford and waterford have been rebuilt\organised
for traffic and more container and transport shipments but only heard some minor words.

Rubbish and exactly the kind of factless silliness that has the UK on the road to breakup. The UK is replacable to Ireland we have a much larger market on the Continent to build on if they wish to cut off their nose to spite their face in the end.

Ireland isnt leaving the EU end of story so stop making such baseless and deluded arguments.