Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

In the hypothetical situations being suggested here,it`s unlikely there would be any agreement on sea lanes or air traffic control which would make it difficult for everyone.

I'd most definitely live with it if it shows up the tory party for the absolute charlatans that they are. They need an absolute kicking from he public and it's long overdue. I think the blaming the EU will get them around 3 inches and after that nahh the public will have and enough. The mistake the Tories make are that there's a war spirit or some other doe eyed guff that will mean people will follow them into the dark.

fash

reslfj wrote: »

Changing UK excise duty/VAT has never had anything to do with the EU. It is - within very wide limits - regulated by UK laws - and only UK laws.

Brexiters may be convinced, but it's still not true.

Lars

It worked with the blue passports, it can work with this - they aren't the brightest of folk.

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

I'd most definitely live with it if it shows up the tory party for the absolute charlatans that they are. They need an absolute kicking from he public and it's long overdue. I think the blaming the EU will get them around 3 inches and after that nahh the public will have and enough. The mistake the Tories make are that there's a war spirit or some other doe eyed guff that will mean people will follow them into the dark.

You're probably right about the public needing to turn on the tories.I find it very depressing that the majority of voters were taken in by Johnson's 'patriotic slogans 'which had/have zero substance but as you say, appeals to the easily impressionable.Coupled to Johnson and his cabinets willingness to spout barefaced lies it may take the UK having to swallow the bitter pill of failure before it can fix itself.

Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

It make's little difference, as in the short term it might cause some pain but in the longer term it will backfire spetacularly expecially if Trump and friends are finally ejected in November and some sanity returns to the US. It would also cause more traffic to veer away from the UK as well not to mention reprocipical measures happening against the UK at the same time by the EU. Worst case we have to increase air cargo into Ireland in the short term (though thanks to the pandemic this would likely be welcomed by Aviation) but long term it would be extremely corrosive to the UK to do something like that which looks bad politcally and diplomatically.

Capt'n Midnight

fash wrote: »

It worked with the blue passports, it can work with this - they aren't the brightest of folk.

Not just blue passports.

It'll work for blue cheese too, if they can beat the Japanese in the trade negotiations. According to UK government figures, a “modelled” trade deal with Japan might add 0.07 per cent to Britain’s GDP in the long term, So it might be less than 0.07% ?

BTW in the grand scheme of UK exports £100,000 would only get you about 70% of the cheapest McLaren, the 540C.



The EU and US have agreed a partial trade deal. The UK had better take notes, they'll need them later.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0821/1160611-us-and-eu-agree-limited-trade-deal/

Trump has put heavy pressure to clinch the zero-tariff lobster deal, especially after the EU entered a trade deal with Canada which also exports the shellfish.

The US wins !

The EU will allow North American lobsters tariff free. Because they already did, from Canada. But some of the US tariffs on other goods have been removed so the EU wins.

Actually US lobster trade to China is way down because of the tit-for-tat tariffs. So US lobster exporters are still hampered by Trump's actions.

Canada's lobsters to China are tariff free since 2017. And to the EU.




Here's the thing, the UK needs to get at least as good a deal with the US and Japan and Canada and all the other countries than they would have got by default by being in the EU otherwise what was the point ?

Remember too that the UK used to influence EU trade deals to the UK's advantage so even that is setting the bar low.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

50% of the ferry traffic on the Irish Sea is already unaccompanied. Trailers are dropped at one ferry port and picked up by a different truck and driver at the next. UK truckers on the Land Bridge gets past most of the regs.

As pointed out before if there's customs gridlock at the Kent ports then the easiest way to keep things moving is prioritise the ones that don't need customs checks like the empty trucks heading back to France and the TIR ones to Ireland. Otherwise they'll need massive parking areas.


We should be OK as long as they don't threaten to starve us out.

30% of UK food is imported from the EU. Of that 30% 73% of that is from the EU. So lots of fresh food that delaying would be shooting themselves in the foot.

An Claidheamh

At this stage, an economic war would be preferable to another 5 years of UK bs.

Agree, that the freight ships would have to up their game, but cutting of Britain’s food supply is probably the only sanction that would make a brainwashed public to turn on their government.

EU would easily win a trade war. And it would’ve quick.

Weak link would be the Irish government afraid to offend the UK and the grip the British media have in Ireland.

View

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In 2017, 85% of Irish freight trade to the EU went via the UK landbridge. And that doesn't take into account our exports to the UK. If they play hardball, we will take a serious cold shower no matter how the EU tries to help.

Given that we have had more than four years to prepare for a hard “no deal” Brexit, if we haven’t got our act together at this stage, then we deserve to get a “cold shower”.

CelticRambler

View wrote: »

Given that we have had more than four years to prepare for a hard “no deal” Brexit, if we haven’t got our act together at this stage, then we deserve to get a “cold shower”.

I'm inclined to agree with this. Whatever difficulties might afflict British businesses, to a certain extent it's outside of their control - they really cannot make alternative arrangements because everything will change for them. Irish businesses, however, have the whole of the rest of the EU to buy from and to sell to, and on the back of EU trade deals, most of the rest of the world is available too on terms that are sure and certain. At this stage, any Irish business that is still neck-deep in the British market probably deserves to sink with that ship.

Gerry T

View wrote:

Given that we have had more than four years to prepare for a hard “no deal†Brexit, if we haven’t got our act together at this stage, then we deserve to get a “cold showerâ€.

In 2016 Varadkar put in place plans, first he made changes at dublin port to accommodate much larger ships, he then negotiated with a Luxembourg shipping company who built the largest RoRo freight ferry in the world, the MV Celine, which will service Dublin and mainland EU. Then V had a second and almost as large ship the MV Delphine. Both are now operational. These are big, the Celine has 8km of freight lanes to take trucks/containers.

My understanding is we can now ship 80% of exports direct to Europe, bypassing the UK. It does take longer but when chaos starts in UK ports I can see most IRL freight carriers going this route.

Secondly Brittany ferries can easily reroute to France from IRL, its in their interest not to lose the business.

listermint

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm inclined to agree with this. Whatever difficulties might afflict British businesses, to a certain extent it's outside of their control - they really cannot make alternative arrangements because everything will change for them. Irish businesses, however, have the whole of the rest of the EU to buy from and to sell to, and on the back of EU trade deals, most of the rest of the world is available too on terms that are sure and certain. At this stage, any Irish business that is still neck-deep in the British market probably deserves to sink with that ship.

You'll find a huge portion of that British business and people within it voted for the Tories in waves again at the GE. So sympathy is somewhat lacking traditional Tory voters didn't seem to move away from them....

kub

Gerry T wrote: »

In 2016 Varadkar put in place plans, first he made changes at dublin port to accommodate much larger ships, he then negotiated with a Luxembourg shipping company who built the largest RoRo freight ferry in the world, the MV Celine, which will service Dublin and mainland EU. Then V had a second and almost as large ship the MV Delphine. Both are now operational. These are big, the Celine has 8km of freight lanes to take trucks/containers.

My understanding is we can now ship 80% of exports direct to Europe, bypassing the UK. It does take longer but when chaos starts in UK ports I can see most IRL freight carriers going this route.

Secondly Brittany ferries can easily reroute to France from IRL, its in their interest not to lose the business.

On the ball, since Brexit those services you mentioned ex Dublin have started, Brittany Ferries introduced a service directly from Ringaskiddy to Santander which was subsequently transferred to Rosslare.


Also there is another new service between Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge for Ro/ Ro commercial traffic.


Those on top of all the other Brittany and Irish Ferries services to our Main Land.


So if services to to UK were interrupted, for whatever reason, I believe the only issue for us is increased travel time.

allthedoyles

Also Maersk are running a weekly service from Waterford Port to Rotterdam started a year ago.

It's very important from a negotiations point of view those significant efforts were made.

McGiver

Regarding Barniers comments, not sure if you mentioned the following, there was an English translation in between and his closing remarks are yummy.

Given the short time left, what I said in London in July remains true:

Today, at this stage, an agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union seems unlikely.

I simply do not understand why we are wasting valuable time.

That's absolutely brutal, this is a public document for the EU audience but is on the EU website. Barnier always used diplomatic language, if he says this then I believe it's a game over, no deal.

Professor Moriarty

kub wrote: »

On the ball, since Brexit those services you mentioned ex Dublin have started, Brittany Ferries introduced a service directly from Ringaskiddy to Santander which was subsequently transferred to Rosslare.


Also there is another new service between Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge for Ro/ Ro commercial traffic.


Those on top of all the other Brittany and Irish Ferries services to our Main Land.


So if services to to UK were interrupted, for whatever reason, I believe the only issue for us is increased travel time.

Increased travel time from 20 hours to a minimum of 40 hours for RoRo and 60 hours for LoLo with consequential very negative impacts for JIT goods and not just agri-food. The idea that a No Brexit scenario won't hurt us all that much, and sure it'll be grand, makes no sense. Here is a quote from this blog on the IIEA website written in June by Tom Ferris, former chief economist in the Dept. of Transport:

"How significant is the landbridge? The IMDO used CSO trade figures and port traffic statistics to measure the scale of landbridge traffics. It concluded that – “…the volume of RoRo traffic using the Landbridge to transport goods to and from European ports is approximately 3,000,000 tonnes, which equates to around 150,000 Heavy Goods Vehicles (approximately 16% of the RoRo traffic between Ireland and Britain)”. This shows that the landbridge is an important route to market for many Irish importers and exporters. The introduction of border procedures between the UK and Ireland and between the UK and the continent will impact negatively on the efficiency and speed of land bridge routes. And procedures can take many forms, ranging from tariffs, customs controls (and delays) to the application of different vehicle standards and road charging."

Sam Russell

McGiver wrote: »

Regarding Barniers comments, not sure if you mentioned the following, there was an English translation in between and his closing remarks are yummy.



That's absolutely brutal, this is a public document for the EU audience but is on the EU website. Barnier always used diplomatic language, if he says this then I believe it's a game over, no deal.

Just as an aside, I read the Barnier piece in French (my French is OK but not by any means fluent) before I worked out how to use Google translate. I thought the quality of the translation was excellent, with the exception of one phrase - 'a la carte' which should be translated as 'a la carte', but was not. Barnier had a few paragraphs in English in the original text.

He is very diplomatic - and this is him being very diplomatic. I wonder what he actually thinks.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just as an aside, I read the Barnier piece in French (my French is OK but not by any means fluent) before I worked out how to use Google translate. I thought the quality of the translation was excellent, with the exception of one phrase - 'a la carte' which should be translated as 'a la carte', but was not. Barnier had a few paragraphs in English in the original text.

He is very diplomatic - and this is him being very diplomatic. I wonder what he actually thinks.

I would imagine that he sees this particular Tory government much as most other EU citizens see it. Populist, elitist, nationalist.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Increased travel time from 20 hours to a minimum of 40 hours for RoRo and 60 hours for LoLo with consequential very negative impacts for JIT goods and not just agri-food. The idea that a No Brexit scenario won't hurt us all that much, and sure it'll be grand, makes no sense. Here is a quote from this blog on the IIEA website written in June by Tom Ferris, former chief economist in the Dept. of Transport:

The point about JIT goods is not transit time but arrival time - and how reliable that arrival time is. They have to arrive 'just in time'. The real problem is transporting perishable goods as their shelf life is reduced, which is a real cost to businesses, as it reduces the time goods can be stocked and still be in date. Even this can be countered by better packing and transit conditions for the goods.

JIT goods are shipped all over the world by tramp steamers, RORO freight ferries, or by aircraft, and what matters is the cost of transport, and reliable shipping times. Slow transport only affects high value goods, and really very high value goods.

Poor reliability requires larger buffer stocks which is a cost of storage but also requires trans shipping into a store house and out again - which is triple handling, and should be avoided, as is the cost of that storehouse. All to be avoided when margins are tight - as they always are.

johnnyskeleton

McGiver wrote: »

Regarding Barniers comments, not sure if you mentioned the following, there was an English translation in between and his closing remarks are yummy.



That's absolutely brutal, this is a public document for the EU audience but is on the EU website. Barnier always used diplomatic language, if he says this then I believe it's a game over, no deal.

Well exactly, and I think we need to start hearing more from EU leaders about how to prepare for Brexit. Even if its just symbolic rsther than meaningful e.g. Irish politicians encouraging people to swap British goods for French ones, or more substantial e.g. clear measures for exporters etc.

Both the UK govt and the EU have seemed to be speaking to the British public for the last few years. Now is the time for the EU to focus on its remaining member states

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

The point about JIT goods is not transit time but arrival time - and how reliable that arrival time is. They have to arrive 'just in time'. The real problem is transporting perishable goods as their shelf life is reduced, which is a real cost to businesses, as it reduces the time goods can be stocked and still be in date. Even this can be countered by better packing and transit conditions for the goods.

JIT goods are shipped all over the world by tramp steamers, RORO freight ferries, or by aircraft, and what matters is the cost of transport, and reliable shipping times. Slow transport only affects high value goods, and really very high value goods.

Poor reliability requires larger buffer stocks which is a cost of storage but also requires trans shipping into a store house and out again - which is triple handling, and should be avoided, as is the cost of that storehouse. All to be avoided when margins are tight - as they always are.

If you double or triple your transport time for fresh food or JIT goods then that poses a serious problem. Here's the problem. Aside from the impact of much longer transport times, we do not yet have the capacity to completely bypass the UK (nevermind the transportation of goods to the UK and the impact of No Brexit on this). For instance, a poster mentioned the new Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge as an example of how we can address the landbridge problem. At maximum capacity and operating 24/7/365, this ferry will transport 16,000 trucks a year. Currently, according to the IIEA, there are 157,000 trucks using the UK landbridge to Europe.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you double or triple your transport time for fresh food or JIT goods then that poses a serious problem. Here's the problem. Aside from the impact of much longer transport times, we do not yet have the capacity to completely bypass the UK (nevermind the transportation of goods to the UK and the impact of No Brexit on this). For instance, a poster mentioned the new Ringaskiddy to Zeebrugge as an example of how we can address the landbridge problem. At maximum capacity and operating 24/7/365, this ferry will transport 16,000 trucks a year. Currently, according to the IIEA, there are 157,000 trucks using the UK landbridge to Europe.

If the business is there, more ferries will ply the routes that are required. Brexit will mean delays and extra cost for business that have truck with Britain. If there are cheaper or better ways, they will start to use those other ways.

That is what business does.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the business is there, more ferries will ply the routes that are required. Brexit will mean delays and extra cost for business that have truck with Britain. If there are cheaper or better ways, they will start to use those other ways.

That is what business does.

The timeline for replacing existing routes is far too short. In the long term, if necessary as it looks like it might be, these routes will be replaced but the cost to Irish business in the interim will be massive.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the business is there, more ferries will ply the routes that are required. Brexit will mean delays and extra cost for business that have truck with Britain. If there are cheaper or better ways, they will start to use those other ways.

That is what business does.

In the event of an acrimonious fallout between the EU and the UK,in which you have suggested 'blockades'to stop food reaching the UK, how do you propose transversing British waters or airspace if required?

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

In the event of an acrimonious fallout between the EU and the UK,in which you have suggested 'blockades'to stop food reaching the UK, how do you propose transversing British waters or airspace if required?

Depends what type of fallout. The UK will have to fly very far south and west to go east if they start blocking EU ships and aircraft in their airspace and it becomes tit for tat. Two can play that game and it doesn't help the UK that it is surrounded by other EU countries or EEA countries. Those are breaks of the situation.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The timeline for replacing existing routes is far too short. In the long term, if necessary as it looks like it might be, these routes will be replaced but the cost to Irish business in the interim will be massive.

The trick is to free up as much capacity for the JIT deliveries by routing the non-time critical stuff elsewhere.

Honda in the UK need 350 trucks from the EU a day to it's Swindon car plant.
Low margin (4% typical of the industry) heavy stuff. Our JIT stuff would I imagine be lighter / more valuable and possibly more air transportable if push came to shove.


Also ferries can move
December should see some spare ones from the holiday islands in the Med. It's a possible contingency plan.


Capacity from Ireland is ramping up.

The addition of Panorama on the Northern Ireland to England corridor will increase freight capacity by 28% and frequency will rise from 46 to 56 crossings weekly compared to the present.


Ro-ro freight operator Seatruck Ferries announced today an increase in capacity with an extra two roundtrips on the Irish Sea central corridor Dublin Port-Liverpool route this week.

Brittany Ferries Plans to Use Another 'French Connection' Port is Followed by Second Cork Cruiseferry Move. And services to Bilbao


This should give an idea of how many Ferries are running
https://www.dublinport.ie/information-centre/next-100-arrivals/ - LOLO is unaccompanied trailers.

Sixtine has 5Km of vehicle lanes too



Container ships are much more efficient by volume, defo not JIT but savings on transport might offset a few days stockpiling costs. Again it's a contingency plan that businesses could consider.




Pity the UK seem to be making it up as they go along.

And forgetting that they need us. The trade surplus of £13.8 billion may shrink if we have to start changing suppliers. ie. 350 million dollars a week

reslfj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you double or triple your transport time for fresh food or JIT goods then that poses a serious problem.

It is the total transport time from e.g. Spain/Valencia with fresh food to Ireland and Irish supermarkets that counts.

Direct RoRo routes to/from Spain will allow timing not much longer than driving to Calais and using the land-bridge.

Fresh food from the Netherlands may see transport times extended relative more, but I'm sure tomatoes and cucumbers will arrive in an OK status at Irish supermarkets too.

It's likely more important that the ship's schedule is coordinated with the distribution warehouses packing and loading schedules.

I wasn't aware that Ireland had much transnational JIT production ? Help me out here, thanks.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

...
At maximum capacity and operating 24/7/365, this ferry will transport 16,000 trucks a year. Currently, according to the IIEA, there are 157,000 trucks using the UK landbridge to Europe.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-busting-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760

It -the Celine - can accommodate more than 600 lorries and is almost twice the size of any ferry currently operating out of Dublin Port. If all the parking lanes on the 235m long boat were laid end to end, it would stretch to almost 8 kilometres, making it the world’s largest short sea roll-on roll-off vessel.

2x600 lorries every 4 days Dublin Zeebrugge-Dublin is > 100.000 lorries/year

Celine has two newer sister-ships* each with a capacity of about 400 lorries.
This adds 2 x 2 x 400 every 4 days if sailing Dublin-Zeebrugge-Dublin or a total additional capacity of > 140.000 lorries/year

More capacity if sailing to Cherbourg and about the same to e.g. Santander.

There are other shipping companies with ferries, RoRo and containers lines. Maersk has several weekly trips Ireland - EU26. Container ships in all sizes are very much available on the market.

The land-bridge is 'nice to have', but no longer 'need to have' for Ireland.

Lars

Edit: Turns out the Celine has identical sistership and many more 'a bit smaller RoRo sisterships

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

Depends what type of fallout. The UK will have to fly very far south and west to go east if they start blocking EU ships and aircraft in their airspace and it becomes tit for tat. Two can play that game and it doesn't help the UK that it is surrounded by other EU countries or EEA countries. Those are breaks of the situation.

The Chicago Convention which the UK ratified March 1947, allows for fly-over (for a fee) and landing for fuel or repair. The UK really needs EU fly-overs hugely more than the EU needs to fly over the UK.

While the EEZs extend to midwater or 200 nm, the international water begins only 12 nm from the coast (from the basis-line).

Lars

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedoms_of_the_air
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Convention_on_International_Civil_Aviation

Nody

Project fear!!1 directly from the government themselves stating what was said here years ago which the Brexiteers called doomsday saying...

In Whitehall’s “reasonable worst case scenario” animal disease might rip through the countryside due to shortages of medicines and the Channel Islands could need military airdrops to avoid running out of food.

It warns the Navy might be needed to stop vigilante British fisherman clashing with hundreds of illegal European fishing boat incursions.

And parts of Britain may be hit by shortages of power and petrol as 8,500 trucks get stuck at Dover.

One in 20 Town Halls could go bust in a second Covid wave, sparking social care chaos.

The economic impact of the virus and Brexit could cause public disorder, shortages and price hikes.

Supplies of food and fuel are all under threat this Christmas if Dover becomes blocked.

With trade talks looking set to go the wire, there is a risk they collapse — putting up trade barriers overnight on 1 January.

In that scenario planners believe France will force “mandatory controls on UK goods from day one” and between 40 and 70 per cent of hauliers travelling across the Channel may not be ready for this.

That could see flow between Dover and Calais down 45 per cent for three months, triggering long queues of HGVs in Kent.

It could lead to shortages of the 30 per cent of our food imported from the EU as well as medicines, chemicals for drinking water purification and fuel supply.

This could trigger water rationing and even power cuts.

Food supply across the country would be hit by panic buying at Christmas, the busiest time of year.

Note; this scenario is in essence no deal brexit + Covid having a second wave basically. It's not exactly an outrageous scenario as it stands...

Professor Moriarty

reslfj wrote: »

It is the total transport time from e.g. Spain/Valencia with fresh food to Ireland and Irish supermarkets that counts.

Direct RoRo routes to/from Spain will allow timing not much longer than driving to Calais and using the land-bridge.

Fresh food from the Netherlands may see transport times extended relative more, but I'm sure tomatoes and cucumbers will arrive in an OK status at Irish supermarkets too.

It's likely more important that the ship's schedule is coordinated with the distribution warehouses packing and loading schedules.

I wasn't aware that Ireland had much transnational JIT production ? Help me out here, thanks.





https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-busting-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760

2x600 lorries every 4 days Dublin Zeebrugge-Dublin is > 100.000 lorries/year

Celine has two newer sister-ships* each with a capacity of about 400 lorries.
This adds 2 x 2 x 400 every 4 days if sailing Dublin-Zeebrugge-Dublin or a total additional capacity of > 140.000 lorries/year

More capacity if sailing to Cherbourg and about the same to e.g. Santander.

There are other shipping companies with ferries, RoRo and containers lines. Maersk has several weekly trips Ireland - EU26. Container ships in all sizes are very much available on the market.

The land-bridge is 'nice to have', but no longer 'need to have' for Ireland.

Lars

Edit: Turns out the Celine has identical sistership and many more 'a bit smaller RoRo sisterships

The discussion is about Irish exports primarily. For the vast majority of exporters, Bilbao wouldn't make sense. The idea that a land bridge is just "nice to have" is very wrong in my opinion. Though not for all, for many exporters to the EU, a doubling or tripling of their delivery time is a serious problem for a variety of reasons. If needed next January, are there sufficient ferries ready to replace the land bridge for 150,000 trucks? I doubt that very much.

I started the conversation many posts back by positing that this Tory government is both stupid and fanatical enough to plunge the UK into a WTO chaos next January. If that chaos turns sour, which is probable, we will be used as a hostage. I hope I'm wrong and the UK comes to its senses. If it doesn't and they decide to mess us around, we will take an economic cold shower. That is certain.