Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

The unemployment rate will shock you come the end of the year
High street retail,Hotel trade,tourist industry,bar and restaurant business are all on their knees until a vaccine is found

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

neutral guy

Guys,EVERY single person who has wage subsidy and job are unemployed already !
He has job Just Because government pay him wage !
The number of people who getting Covid payment are "falling" just because people leaving Covid payment and go work for Covid wage subsidy or go home to countries they came from!
The only difference at the moment between unemployed and working persons that people are working getting "social welfare" when before they was seating at home.

Cantstandsya

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

This is amazing logic. I'm convinced.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

Demand is only demand if the finances are there to buy the product.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

Essentially you are saying unemployment rates are irrelevant to property prices because overall demand for housing remains the same?

I have heard some real nonsense on this thread but I think this takes the biscuit.

Hubertj

brisan wrote: »

I think the bank were more worried about what the house would be worth next year rather than its value now.
He was only 1500 euro more than the next highest bidder
Has anybody else details of a bank not valuing a house at the sale agreed price .
First time I have heard of it in 38 years of buying and selling

there was something in 1 of the papers in May or June. What % did the banks valuation differ from the offer price and sale agreed price?

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

Guys,EVERY single person who has wage subsidy and job are unemployed already !
He has job Just Because government pay him wage !
The number of people who getting Covid payment are "falling" just because people leaving Covid payment and go work for Covid wage subsidy or go home to countries they came from!
The only difference at the moment between unemployed and working persons that people are working getting "social welfare" when before they was seating at home.

You really don't understand this at all. Tried to explain last week but obviously didn't get through to you.

mcsean2163

fliball123 wrote: »

I agree with all of that but how much of that stops REITS and global investors looking for a return on their money from buying? What stops people who are still working from buying? People still need somewhere to live what is the alternative to buying?

Buying cheaper and further away from where you want
Renting - sometimes paying more than a mortgage
moving back in what mam and dad (not really an option for a couple with a few nippers)

As I said this is a different beast and while you rightly point to what will affect demand as in driving it down . other things will drive it up and will also decrease supply as in:

No option for emigration
Houses currently being built are at a very slow rate and a high % being snapped up off the plans by REITS
Current stock of supply is p1ss poor anything half decent is being snapped up
From 2007 to 2020 a lot more people to house as the population has increased year on year
Family homes are protected meaning very few evictions.
Government cannot afford to build houses they cant afford the current expenditure sure we only started breaking even last year before this happened.
Banks have already had strict lending practices the last decade they have been a lot more prudent in their lending.


Like there are a lot of what ifs, and the biggest factor will be a cure for the virus and every top scientist in the world is working on solving this with billions being pumped into finding a cure.

Who knows all I know is currently if I was putting my gaff up I would want what it is worth before Covid if I got an offer of less I would say "thanks" but "no thanks"

If global reits don't get rent because everyone is unemployed they will become insolvent.

We've been looking and prices have already dropped.

The tourism sector has been decimated, once the pup runs out, where will the non nationals go? Probably home if they can. Airbnb dead in Dublin, lots more rental stock there etc. Median age in Europe has increased by 5 years in the last 20 years from 37 to 42

Market will probably fall by 40%+. I would say if you get pre covid19 prices anytime in the next two years you're doing extremely well.

The price of houses especially in Dublin is absolutely crazy. If you're insisting on pre covid19 prices in Dublin, I suggest you ring around to find someone you can trust.

Then again, who knows, maybe people will decide covid19 is not worth the hassle and we'll have the v shaped recovery.

awec

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

If the government start buying up existing properties then this will prop up prices, or at least raise the floor of potential drops. If they go on a spending spree of new houses this may help drop prices, but comes with other risks.

brisan

awec wrote: »

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

They will have to build new
If they continue to buy that will keep prices up and force more private buyers out of the market.
Commercial property building should slow or stop shortly and that will free up labour.
My hope is that the government supply the land and put the building of houses out to tender
Both social and private housing

mcsean2163

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask where the drop demand is when someone losses a job?

If someone was employed, saving and looking for a mortgage for a house and now they are unemployed they cant go to the bank so buying with a mortgage losses a person from their demand stream. They are now added to the demand side for social housing and there is a scheme that most REITS use where they get 85% of current rent for 10 to 25 years off the government..

People still need to live somewhere just because they cant get a loan off the bank this does not change the supply vs demand paradigm.

Why do you think there's a homelessness problem in Ireland? The government will not hand over 4,000 a month to a REIT because someone becomes unemployed. They won't do it, they've been happy to leave families in temporary housing/ hotels etc., Do you really think they'll suddenly pay top dollar for accommodation for unemployed people?

brisan

awec wrote: »

I think they'll end up doing a mix of both, but they'll want to be careful about big social housing projects that end up as repeats of the ghettos they built in the past.

I don't think the government will want to get into the business of building private housing.

I agree with the ghettos
As to private housing they will have to build affordable housing that they will make a small profit on for 2 reasons
Keep builders working and not on SW
Secondly to allow people to buy their own home
They may give builders the land with strict conditions on size quality and price of the finished product
Its in everybody's interest to build houses.

If the private market cannot supply houses at an affordable price the Government has to step in .
This would also drive down rents and second hand house prices
The housing crisis has not gone away and SF and the next election are only around the corner
SF would be in Government now if they had not misread the last election and FF-FG know this

Hubertj

brisan wrote: »

They will have to build new
If they continue to buy that will keep prices up and force more private buyers out of the market.
Commercial property building should slow or stop shortly and that will free up labour.
My hope is that the government supply the land and put the building of houses out to tender
Both social and private housing

I think this makes sense. My concern is how long this will take and I have little faith in any government department or council properly managing procurement and costs.
Short term there seems to be a big need or social/adorable housing etc so they may need to buy existing stock as well as build.

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

I think this makes sense. My concern is how long this will take and I have little faith in any government department or council properly managing procurement and costs.
Short term there seems to be a big need or social/adorable housing etc so they may need to buy existing stock as well as build.

As I said in previous posts the spectre of SF and the next election will focus the minds of FF-FG,
I agree about Gov dept. being capable but builders have well documented the cost of building a house
If they are given the land and cheap finance then the price of a new build should come down considerably .
A builder would rather be making some money than have all his labour and plant and machinery lying idle
He may not make the same outrageous profits but he will make some

Hubertj

brisan wrote: »

As I said in previous posts the spectre of SF and the next election will focus the minds of FF-FG,
I agree about Gov dept. being capable but builders have well documented the cost of building a house
If they are given the land and cheap finance then the price of a new build should come down considerably .
A builder would rather be making some money than have all his labour and plant and machinery lying idle
He may not make the same outrageous profits but he will make some

100% agree with you. I just have 0 faith in government departments. Whatever about an election, the inability/incompetence of government depts won't change with SF in power.
In addition, how long will it take them to plan it before workers get on site? And how long does it take to build an estate of lets say 400 units? (i know nothing about this stuff). Must be a lead time of years?

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

100% agree with you. I just have 0 faith in government departments. Whatever about an election, the inability/incompetence of government depts won't change with SF in power.
In addition, how long will it take them to plan it before workers get on site? And how long does it take to build an estate of lets say 400 units? (i know nothing about this stuff). Must be a lead time of years?

You would be amazed at how quick a builder can get things done when the incentive is there
I have seen things move at quite a speed when the builder was told the PP would not automatically be renewed but he would have to apply all over again
This was 8 apartments on an infill site.
Had ground works finished within 2 weeks
House demolished and site cleared

fliball123

Cantstandsya wrote: »

This is amazing logic. I'm convinced.

Where do you see the flaw? The simple basic principal of price is supply vs demand shifting how the demand side from one queue to the next does not reduce demand.

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Demand is only demand if the finances are there to buy the product.

as I say REITS are snapping up everything they hardly need much financing as I say they will be guaranteed 85% of the existing loan rate in this country for 10 to 25 years. So its almost self financing over a long period

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

as I say REITS are snapping up everything they hardly need much financing as I say they will be guaranteed 85% of the existing loan rate in this country for 10 to 25 years. So its almost self financing over a long period

That wont last as the Government are up to their neck in debt and SF breathing down their necks.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Essentially you are saying unemployment rates are irrelevant to property prices because overall demand for housing remains the same?

I have heard some real nonsense on this thread but I think this takes the biscuit.

I am not saying that I am saying that the demand side of things are not going to dwindle as much as people think due unemployment. This country is left leaning everyone is expecting to be housed good, bad, poor and rich. There is a waiting list of over 100k people on the housing waiting list waiting for a house , these guys dont need mortgages they will get help from the government and the government turn to the likes of REITS to get property at a supposed 15% discount of the current actual rent.

fliball123

mcsean2163 wrote: »

If global reits don't get rent because everyone is unemployed they will become insolvent.

We've been looking and prices have already dropped.

The tourism sector has been decimated, once the pup runs out, where will the non nationals go? Probably home if they can. Airbnb dead in Dublin, lots more rental stock there etc. Median age in Europe has increased by 5 years in the last 20 years from 37 to 42

Market will probably fall by 40%+. I would say if you get pre covid19 prices anytime in the next two years you're doing extremely well.

The price of houses especially in Dublin is absolutely crazy. If you're insisting on pre covid19 prices in Dublin, I suggest you ring around to find someone you can trust.

Then again, who knows, maybe people will decide covid19 is not worth the hassle and we'll have the v shaped recovery.

I have already stated that the government are paying a lot of money to REITS to house our poor and those who have no housing. there are schemes in place by the government that offer you 85% of the current rent to lease out you house for social housing.

Your saying people are going to leave unfortunately the same conditions are in every countries its like going from the frying pan into the fire.

Wanderer78

brisan wrote:

That wont last as the Government are up to their neck in debt and SF breathing down their necks.

Large amounts of public debt has rarely caused issues, large accumulations of private debt on the other hand has caused a lot, debt is a critical component of the money supply, without it, we d have no money, but this does need to be carefully dealt with

fliball123

awec wrote: »

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

If the government start buying up existing properties then this will prop up prices, or at least raise the floor of potential drops. If they go on a spending spree of new houses this may help drop prices, but comes with other risks.

They wont buy them they will enter into the 10 to 25 year rent agreements at the 85% discount. This is being fleeced by REITS and other professional renters. They dont even have to deal with fixing up the property that tenants do damage to , the government have to deal with it.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not saying that I am saying that the demand side of things are not going to dwindle as much as people think due unemployment. This country is left leaning everyone is expecting to be housed good, bad, poor and rich. There is a waiting list of over 100k people on the housing waiting list waiting for a house , these guys dont need mortgages they will get help from the government and the government turn to the likes of REITS to get property at a supposed 15% discount of the current actual rent.

Maybe the Government will take out a 25 yr mortgage at 0.1% with the ECB and build their own .
They have said they are committed to building both social and affordable housing and SF will hold them to that
Last chance saloon for the big 2
People dont vote for lads whose families fought in the civil war any more

fliball123

awec wrote: »

The government's approach on how to deal with the social housing list, which is already too long and only going to grow, is going to have a massive impact on property prices.

fliball is sort of half right in that someone becoming unemployed doesn't mean they disappear into thin air and no longer need to be housed, but a person waiting on the social list doesn't have anywhere near the same impact on the market as someone with their own funds ready to buy.

If the government start buying up existing properties then this will prop up prices, or at least raise the floor of potential drops. If they go on a spending spree of new houses this may help drop prices, but comes with other risks.

They wont buy them they will enter into the 10 to 25 year rent agreements at the 85% discount. This is being fleeced by REITS and other professional renters. They dont even have to deal with fixing up the property that tenants do damage to , the government have to deal with it.

brisan

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Large amounts of public debt has rarely caused issues, large accumulations of private debt on the other hand has caused a lot, debt is a critical component of the money supply, without it, we d have no money, but this does need to be carefully dealt with

2008-PRESENT would suggest otherwise

Wanderer78

brisan wrote:

2008-PRESENT would suggest otherwise

Once again, the previous crash was caused by the rapid growth of private debt due to a building boom, it had little or nothing to do with public debt and public expenditure

fliball123

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Why do you think there's a homelessness problem in Ireland? The government will not hand over 4,000 a month to a REIT because someone becomes unemployed. They won't do it, they've been happy to leave families in temporary housing/ hotels etc., Do you really think they'll suddenly pay top dollar for accommodation for unemployed people?

Maybe not 4k a month where are you living that 4k is 85% of your monthly rent are you living in leafy Foxrock or the top of Howth???


There is a direct lease agreement that allows a landlord give the property to the gov and they can rent it to anyone they want remember now on the other side the renter will be subsidized by things like HAP, rent allowance, etc.

People can offset repairs, and full interest on any mortgage on the house against tax etc.

Have a look here

https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/repair_leasing_faqs_for_website.pdf


They are actively trying to buy aswell
http://www.dublincity.ie/housing-and-community-i-own-my-home-section-rent-or-sell-your-property/sell-your-property-us

look I am not saying its right or wrong. I think property prices will come down a small %, my main point is that unemployment may not be the big factor that people think it will be when it comes to demand. As in if I need a place to stay being employed or not employed does not change the fact that I need somewhere to stay and with this countries left leaning outlook your more than likely going to get help to get housed.

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

As I said in previous posts the spectre of SF and the next election will focus the minds of FF-FG,
I agree about Gov dept. being capable but builders have well documented the cost of building a house
If they are given the land and cheap finance then the price of a new build should come down considerably .
A builder would rather be making some money than have all his labour and plant and machinery lying idle
He may not make the same outrageous profits but he will make some

next election is 5 years away lets all hope that Covid is no longer an issue by then

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

That wont last as the Government are up to their neck in debt and SF breathing down their necks.

So what do we do with the homeless give them a tent and say good luck any government doing that would be lambasted.