Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

smellyoldboot

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I'm actually heartened for the first time in a long time that steps in the right direction are afoot. If the increased funding to build social housing removes or even materially reduces the extent of the government out bidding people trying to purchase private housing things should improve a bit supply wise.

It's not a panacea and I don't think there is one, but it will help.

lol. Awe bless. You're young yet.

javaboy

merikahan wrote: »

having lived & worked in SFO for sometime , this is hilarious post.. In SFO, they also pay 4-5 times of Dublin wages for IT workers.

They pay significantly more but 4-5 times is a gross exaggeration.

virginmediapls

javaboy wrote: »

They pay significantly more but 4-5 times is a gross exaggeration.

No it's not.

SDE IIs in SFO make over 250k easily. Good luck getting that here.

Source : Over 15yrs in the industry, currently hiring software manager.

javaboy

virginmediapls wrote: »

No it's not.

SDE IIs in SFO make over 250k easily. Good luck getting that here.

Source : Over 15yrs in the industry, currently hiring software manager.

Eh yeah. That’s why I said they make far more but not 5 times.

Grads in my own company make north of 50 from day 1 ignoring RSUs etc. never mind after a couple of promotions.

Like for like in the US the base salary is around 2.5-3 times that. Not 4 or 5.

If you’re an SDE II here and 250k is 4-5 times your income, it’s time to hop jobs for somewhere more competitive.

My numbers are anecdotal but the likes of Glassdoor would say similar. No need for exaggeration is all I’m saying.

soirish

The market hasn't changed much in the last few months.

PropQueries

soirish wrote: »

The market hasn't changed much in the last few months.

The same index shows that in February 2007 it was at 130 and in February 2008 it was at 127. Little change back then as well...

Link here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2016/

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The same index shows that in February 2007 it was at 130 and in February 2008 it was at 127. Little change back then as well...

Link here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2016/

Link is for 2016?

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Link is for 2016?

It only goes back 10 years for each graph. His one was for August 2020 so only went back to 2010. My one is for August 2016 so goes back to 2006.

Mad_maxx

javaboy wrote: »

They pay significantly more but 4-5 times is a gross exaggeration.

brother in law worked for a medical devices company in San Fran for a few years who also employ a large number of people in galway where he is based now

he claims he would be earning twice as much stateside but a house would cost him a million dollars , he paid 330 k for one here and its a beautiful home outside galway city

Leozord

virginmediapls wrote: »

SDE IIs in SFO make over 250k easily. Good luck getting that here.

Source : Over 15yrs in the industry, currently hiring software manager.

In FAANGs or Tier 2 companies yes. Comparing FAANGS here with SFO's wouldn't reach 2-3x the salary.

But yeah, just pulling your legs - IT salaries are way higher in SFO than here alright

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The same index shows that in February 2007 it was at 130 and in February 2008 it was at 127. Little change back then as well...

Link here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2016/

Why are you comparing now to the crash of 2008? What similarities are there???

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Why are you comparing now to the crash of 2008? What similarities are there???

Because the poster used data from the CSO to show there has been little movement in residential prices over the past few months. I showed data, also from the the CSO, that showed there was also little movement between February 2007 and February 2008.

Between February 2007 and February 2008, the banks were very actively pulling back from the property market and trying to sell their residential mortgages to each other i.e. they were actively encouraging clients to refinance with other institutions at that time but to little avail as contrary to the public narrative at that time, all the banks knew what was about to happen.

It's a good comparison on when trying to interpret the current CSO data?

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Because the poster used data from the CSO to show there has been little movement in residential prices over the past few months. I showed data, also from the the CSO, that showed there was also little movement between February 2007 and February 2008.

Between February 2007 and February 2008, the banks were very actively pulling back from the property market and trying to sell their residential mortgages to each other i.e. they were actively encouraging clients to refinance with other institutions at that time but to little avail as contrary to the public narrative at that time, all the banks knew what was about to happen.

It's a good comparison on when trying to interpret the current CSO data?

Its really only a good comparison if we have another crash on the same scale as '12.

So really this comparison can only be made retrospectively.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Because the poster used data from the CSO to show there has been little movement in residential prices over the past few months. I showed data, also from the the CSO, that showed there was also little movement between February 2007 and February 2008.

Between February 2007 and February 2008, the banks were very actively pulling back from the property market and trying to sell their residential mortgages to each other i.e. they were actively encouraging clients to refinance with other institutions at that time but to little avail as contrary to the public narrative at that time, all the banks knew what was about to happen.

It's a good comparison on when trying to interpret the current CSO data?

Once again I ask you why are you comparing it to that time so what if there was little movement between Feb 07 and Feb 08 it has absolutely no connection to today . There are way to many differences today than there was back in 07/08. The main one being how the government are reacting they are actually spending like there is no tomorrow instead of cutting everything in sight which is what happened from 08 onwards.

Of course the banks new what was happening in 08 the crash was in the main was because of them.

Look at the differences now just the 3 off the top of my head which screams that it is a different beast this time when it comes to property

Lack of decent housing today vs oversupply in 08
Government spending like a hurricane today vs cut cut cut in 08
Banks in decent shape today due to prudent lending practices vs 110% mortgages and lads getting cheap credit for 20 gaffs in 08

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask you why are you comparing it to that time so what if there was little movement between Feb 07 and Feb 08 it has absolutely no connection to today . There are way to many differences today than there was back in 07/08. The main one being how the government are reacting they are actually spending like there is no tomorrow instead of cutting everything in sight which is what happened from 08 onwards

I wouldn't regard the housing budget as "spending like there is no tomorrow":

"The key question is how much extra capital spending did Minister O’Brien secure for social and affordable housing in 2021 above that committed to by his predecessor and how many homes will this deliver.

The answer is just €160m to deliver only 993 extra homes - €124m to deliver an additional 593 social homes and €35m to deliver 400 cost rental homes.

Despite the claims that this is the largest housing budget ever, the actual amount being invested in the delivery of real social housing in 2021 is low. Just €1.3bn will be given to Local Authorities and Approved Housing Bodies to deliver 10,300 real social homes owned by Councils and AHBs. This is just 593 homes more than had been promised by Eoghan Murphy in his Rebuilding Ireland targets for 2021."

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Its really only a good comparison if we have another crash on the same scale as '12.

So really this comparison can only be made retrospectively.

I'm not comparing today's market with the market back then. I was comparing the price movements as recorded in the property price index back then to today. That's what is similar to today.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I wouldn't regard the housing budget as "spending like there is no tomorrow":

"The key question is how much extra capital spending did Minister O’Brien secure for social and affordable housing in 2021 above that committed to by his predecessor and how many homes will this deliver.

The answer is just €160m to deliver only 993 extra homes - €124m to deliver an additional 593 social homes and €35m to deliver 400 cost rental homes.

Despite the claims that this is the largest housing budget ever, the actual amount being invested in the delivery of real social housing in 2021 is low. Just €1.3bn will be given to Local Authorities and Approved Housing Bodies to deliver 10,300 real social homes owned by Councils and AHBs. This is just 593 homes more than had been promised by Eoghan Murphy in his Rebuilding Ireland targets for 2021."

I would call it a spending budget when you put everything together (not just housing) how much extra we are paying out for Health, Public sector getting payrises, how much are we paying now on welfare, they are also throwing money at infrastructure and with the exception of fags and carbon tax , taxes did not rise. If you dont call that a spending budget then I dont know what is.

Idbatterim

fliball123 wrote: »

Well before you do and I am no FG supporter just have a look at the broken promises as well as the housing situation and the welfare situation SF have governed in the north.

Yeah ... look its not like i think sf are ideal. Obviously. But fg are taking the absolute piss, i dont believe anything will change unless change is voted for or fg think theyll lose seats and might start to address the issue. But they are so ideologically opposed to do anything on housing, i think theyd prefer decimation than to touch it. Housing for working people im talking about, couldnt care about the wasters all the parties seem to be beholden too .

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not comparing today's market with the market back then. I was comparing the price movements as recorded in the property price index back then to today. That's what is similar to today.

So?? I bet the same patterns could be seen over and over in different years.. I reckon you pick 08 as we all know what happened to property after it but the same dynamics are not there for that this time

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I ask you why are you comparing it to that time so what if there was little movement between Feb 07 and Feb 08 it has absolutely no connection to today . There are way to many differences today than there was back in 07/08. The main one being how the government are reacting they are actually spending like there is no tomorrow instead of cutting everything in sight which is what happened from 08 onwards.

Of course the banks new what was happening in 08 the crash was in the main was because of them.

Look at the differences now just the 3 off the top of my head which screams that it is a different beast this time when it comes to property

Lack of decent housing today vs oversupply in 08
Government spending like a hurricane today vs cut cut cut in 08
Banks in decent shape today due to prudent lending practices vs 110% mortgages and lads getting cheap credit for 20 gaffs in 08

Lack of decent housing today vs oversupply in 08

You know my opinion on that so I'll try not bring it up for the moment

Government spending like a hurricane today vs cut cut cut in 08

The housing budget did increase but is not investing significantly in new builds which is capital expenditure and once-off. A significant portion of the housing budget is investing in HAP etc., which is current expenditure and must be paid year in year out for the foreseeable future. Therefore, our taxes (income taxes, property taxes etc.) are going to have to rise significantly over the next 5 years to meet this permanent increase in current expenditure. Our debt was the third highest in the world on a per capita basis in 2019. God knows what it will be at after all this spending which appears to be primarily current rather than capital with no long term positive impact on the future productive capacity of the state which means we can't really afford to pay it back or continue to keep this level of current expenditure going forward. When the government pulls back on this spending (which they must), there will be some hangover.

Banks in decent shape today due to prudent lending practices vs 110% mortgages and lads getting cheap credit for 20 gaffs in 08

Bank of Ireland share price October 2015: €11.01
Bank of Ireland share price October 2019: €4.70
Bank of Ireland share price October 2020: €1.81

MacronvFrugals

Eddie Hobbs reckons central banks will use inflation to wipe out a large portion of the Covid debt akin to post WW2

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40063946.html

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

Because the poster used data from the CSO to show there has been little movement in residential prices over the past few months. I showed data, also from the the CSO, that showed there was also little movement between February 2007 and February 2008.

Between February 2007 and February 2008, the banks were very actively pulling back from the property market and trying to sell their residential mortgages to each other i.e. they were actively encouraging clients to refinance with other institutions at that time but to little avail as contrary to the public narrative at that time, all the banks knew what was about to happen.

It's a good comparison on when trying to interpret the current CSO data?

what official data showed up - was recorded by spring 2008 was hopelessly out of date

the peak was spring 2007 , by mid 2009 , house prices were already almost 40% down from peak

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Eddie Hobbs reckons central banks will use inflation to wipe out a large portion of the Covid debt akin to post WW2

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40063946.html

Thanks for the article. But I'm not sure this will be our get out of jail free card.

Below are the debt to GDP ratios for EU countries in Q1 2020. Once inflation starts to take off, it's very difficult to put it back in the bottle. I can't imagine the fiscally responsible members of the eurozone are going to allow the ECB to take that risk when the potential negatives for these countries massively outweigh any potential positives:

Debt to GDP Q1 2020:

Greece: 176%
Italy: 137%
Portugal: 120%
Belgium: 104%
France: 101%
Spain: 98%
Cyprus: 97%
Croatia: 74%
Austria: 72%
Slovenia: 69%
Hungary: 66%
Finland: 64%
Germany: 61%
Ireland: 59%
Netherlands: 49%
Slovakia: 49%
Poland: 47%
Malta: 44%
Romania: 37%
Latvia: 37%
Sweden: 35%
Denmark: 33%
Lithuania: 33%
Czech Republic: 32%
Luxembourg: 22%
Bulgaria: 20%
Estonia: 9%

mcsean2163

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks for the article. But I'm not sure this will be our get out of jail free card.

Below are the debt to GDP ratios for EU countries in Q1 2020. Once inflation starts to take off, it's very difficult to put it back in the bottle. I can't imagine the fiscally responsible members of the eurozone are going to allow the ECB to take that risk when the potential negatives for these countries massively outweigh any potential positives:

Debt to GDP Q1 2020:

Greece: 176%
Italy: 137%
Portugal: 120%
Belgium: 104%
France: 101%
Spain: 98%
Cyprus: 97%
Croatia: 74%
Austria: 72%
Slovenia: 69%
Hungary: 66%
Finland: 64%
Germany: 61%
Ireland: 59%
Netherlands: 49%
Slovakia: 49%
Poland: 47%
Malta: 44%
Romania: 37%
Latvia: 37%
Sweden: 35%
Denmark: 33%
Lithuania: 33%
Czech Republic: 32%
Luxembourg: 22%
Bulgaria: 20%
Estonia: 9%

Ireland is a mess. Globally, China seems to have recovered and owns a lot of debt. If it sells its us debt at once it could probably destroy the us economy.

We are not well positioned.

Bass Reeves

Mad_maxx wrote: »

brother in law worked for a medical devices company in San Fran for a few years who also employ a large number of people in galway where he is based now

he claims he would be earning twice as much stateside but a house would cost him a million dollars , he paid 330 k for one here and its a beautiful home outside galway city

And there is much more than that in play. In the US you pay for the full cost of your children education. It costs from 60-100k/ year to send kids to any sort of decent third level colleges, as well people with children move to area's with good schools, the property and local taxes reflect these costs. Finally Health insuranc is a massive cost in the states. I have a cousin over there her children will never travel because of the cost of education and neither will be they take a year out.

They will not be going on a round the world tour as there will be education debts to be cleared

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not comparing today's market with the market back then. I was comparing the price movements as recorded in the property price index back then to today. That's what is similar to today.

I'm sure there are multiple other time points you could have used to demonstrate a stable market other than 08.

Again you are trying to drum up the idea in users minds that a crash is imminent.

But on another note, at least your posts are no longer feigning only a mild unbiased interest in the property market.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

I'm sure there are multiple other time points you could have used to demonstrate a stable market other than 08.

Again you are trying to drum up the idea in users minds that a crash is imminent.

But on another note, at least your posts are no longer feigning only a mild unbiased interest in the property market.

The reason for showing February 2007 to February 2008 is because it's an interesting comparison. Everyone in Ireland knew by mid 2007 that the property market was in deep trouble. However, the CSO property price index only showed a fall from 130 to 127 during this time period.

This is significant in itself given that the post I replied to showed the same index showing no real price movements over the past three months as some level of proof that everything in the property market is most likely hunky dory at the moment and for the foreseeable future.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

The reason for showing February 2007 to February 2008 is because it's an interesting comparison. Everyone in Ireland knew by mid 2007 that the property market was in deep trouble. However, the CSO property price index only showed a fall from 130 to 127 during this time period.

This is significant in itself given that the post I replied to showed the same index showing no real price movements over the past three months as some level of proof that everything in the property market is most likely hunky dory at the moment and for the foreseeable future.

Rubbish, while many understood the implications there was not many who knew what would happen. Builders were still being supported by banks to complete projects. As we have constantly pointed out even small builders in remote areas were allowed to complete development's before selling any houses. I know of one young man who inherited a few acres near a town and was completely funded by the bank to build over 20 houses.

There is none of that happening to any great extent at present. Builders suppliers provide long credit again supported by the banks. Agri Co-op's taught they were development companies rather than agri businesses. Banks continued to support builders out into late 2008. The crash really started in 2009 as Anglo Irish Bank went bust and the level of lending and poor securitizations by other lending institutions was realized. As builders layed off workers and the ancillary companies feeding into that frenzy lost income did the crash begin happen.

I know a small builder who were advised by an auctioneer in 2009 to sit tight with 2-3 houses he had for sale. He survived but lost money on selling them.in 2010.

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Rubbish, while many understood the implications there was not many who knew what would happen. Builders were still being supported by banks to complete projects. As we have constantly pointed out even small builders in remote areas were allowed to complete development's before selling any houses. I know of one young man who inherited a few acres near a town and was completely funded by the bank to build over 20 houses.

There is none of that happening to any great extent at present. Builders suppliers provide long credit again supported by the banks. Agri Co-op's taught they were development companies rather than agri businesses. Banks continued to support builders out into late 2008. The crash really started in 2009 as Anglo Irish Bank went bust and the level of lending and poor securitizations by other lending institutions was realized. As builders layed off workers and the ancillary companies feeding into that frenzy lost income did the crash begin happen.

I know a small builder who were advised by an auctioneer in 2009 to sit tight with 2-3 houses he had for sale. He survived but lost money on selling them.in 2010.

Well the guys on the street were apparently well ahead of you at that time.

This is an article from Brendan O'Connor on the 29th July 2007:

"SO THE sky is falling in again. The Irish stock market is apparently in meltdown, because of the housing market, which is also apparently in meltdown. The level of property horror stories is at an all-time high and everyone is tripping over each other to predict even greater gloom than the next guy."

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-26307728.html

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

The reason for showing February 2007 to February 2008 is because it's an interesting comparison. Everyone in Ireland knew by mid 2007 that the property market was in deep trouble. However, the CSO property price index only showed a fall from 130 to 127 during this time period.

I wouldn't agree everyone knew by mid 2007. But the smart money did and had already taken evasive action.

There were still plenty of people saying "Rubbish, look at the fundamentals, Ireland is different, you're just a gloom merchant, people still need a place to live, they're not making any more land you know, soft landing, sure you might be right eventually, but you said the same last month etc etc"

Not entirely different to 2020 really.