Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Monitor1985

We're sale agreed on a property at the moment, stroke of luck really as it was sale agreed with someone else and we spoke to the sellers, they decided to go with us, even though 3 other people were in the bidding war for the house, we didn't even bid.

2 other houses came up in our area recently, all sale agreed in under 2 weeks, one of the houses is a semi detached 3 bed which was on the same estate as the one we are sale agreed on, asking €145k,think it sold for €149k,the house it's attached to sold for €125k in 2018.

Ours is detached 4 bed, sale agreed for €155k,we are lucky to have gone sale agreed when we have as houses in our area are being snapped up and going above asking.

We are in a small village in Waterford close to the Cork border.

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

Not really, just confusion from some who wont take proof and are simply denying facts.

I'm beginning to think they're trolling to be honest

I’m the one dealing in facts but it seems to be triggering you for some reason?

The facts are so far is that selling prices are holding up that’s it all the rest of your and anyone else’s anecdotes are just that anecdotes .

Maybe go out for a walk might calm you down

As for me I have no skin in the game just like to deal in facts !

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

In the interest of looking at actual sales prices in this segment I searched the PPR for Blackrock. Helpfully the first entry was called Marsham Court (actually stillorgan) which sounds exactly the sort of cookie cutter houses discussed earlier in the thread. Googling for pictures confirms this:

03/07/2020 €445,000.00 72 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, BLACKROCK



Searching the PPR brings up a whole pile of Marsham Courts sold over the last 10 years. Most recent to 72 was no 48 in October 2019:

23/10/2019 €475,000.00 48 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, DUBLIN



I ignored the next entry as it was 54A and that sounded like it might be a new build in a garden. The next was number 45, sold January 2019:

10/01/2019 €540,000.00 45 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, DUBLIN



The next result sold in October 2018, also for €540,000, but I couldn't find a picture. I am guessing it is pretty similiar to the above though!

I am not looking to buy anywhere in South Dublin in the 400-600k range, never mind Marsham Court, but if I was I would conclude that sales prices in this estate are trending downwards and have fallen nearly 20% since Jan 2019.

I'd also be tempted to conclude that this estate is not some sort of outlier?

I know marshal court quite well as 2 of my friends grew up there and 1 lives there now and you are correct - they pretty much all look the same. I would say there Can be big differences in the quality of the houses. When my friends purchased there, the kitchen and bathrooms looked like they were from the 80s. Perhaps some of the variances you point out are due to how much work was or wasn’t required in the place as well as a downward trend in prices. Either way, it’s not somewhere I would like to live, it just feels like a very “meh” estate even though stillorgan is a nice area.

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

8 ROSSMORE CLOSE, Templeogue, Dublin 6W original asking 550k - reduced to 530 - sold for 508.........house on same street sold for 550 in 2015
72 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin Original asking 495 sold for 445. houses on street sold for 475,495,540 and 540
7 MAPAS RD, DUBLIN, Dalkey, Co. Dublin original asking 725 - sold for 700.... house sold for 910 on same road 2017
17 ROCK ROAD, CO DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin 475 - 441 no info
3 GLENAGEARY COURT, DUBLIN, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin 400 -385 no info
59 MONALOE PARK RD, DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin original 575 reduced 550 sold 525.... houses sold on the road for 650 (2018) 570(2017)
GREENGATES, ADELAIDE RD, Glenageary, Co. Dublin original 850 - reduced to 750 - sold for 680. houses on this road rage from 6.5Mill - 715k


that help you understand whats going on??? (can't believe i wasted my time doing this for you, you'll have some other excuse no doubt)

What this is helping me understand is that you don’t know these roads

Most of the houses are different , some aren’t estates even, and the ones that are can vary widely from houses that have been renovated to those that haven’t and 3 bed v 5 bed etc

Again it’s evidence of nothing .

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

I’m the one dealing in facts but it seems to be triggering you for some reason?

The facts are so far is that selling prices are holding up that’s it all the rest of your and anyone else’s anecdotes are just that anecdotes .

Maybe go out for a walk might calm you down

As for me I have no skin in the game just like to deal in facts !

You're making a show of yourself here pal, there's only so much people can warn you so Im not wasting anymore time on a troll .

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I know marshal court quite well as 2 of my friends grew up there and 1 lives there now and you are correct - they pretty much all look the same. I would say there Can be big differences in the quality of the houses. When my friends purchased there, the kitchen and bathrooms looked like they were from the 80s. Perhaps some of the variances you point out are due to how much work was or wasn’t required in the place as well as a downward trend in prices. Either way, it’s not somewhere I would like to live, it just feels like a very “meh” estate even though stillorgan is a nice area.

For sure a house with a modern bathroom will be more desirable than the one with the avocado bidet, but it’s 10k max to overhaul the bathroom.

Does that really explain the guts of 100k price drop in what is apparently a stable/rising market?

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

You're making a show of yourself here pal, there's only so much people can warn you so Im not wasting anymore time on a troll .

Pal?

Warn me about what ?

Strange kind of trolling that relies on publicly available statistics to counter anecdotes .

But I’m not surprised that’s what you have resorted to give the standard of previous posts .

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

For sure a house with a modern bathroom will be more desirable than the one with the avocado bidet, but it’s 10k max to overhaul the bathroom.

Does that really explain the guts of 100k price drop in what is apparently a stable/rising market?

There are 3 4 and 5 bed houses up there. Some renovated some extended etc etc

100k won’t build a two story extension and new kitchen

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

For sure a house with a modern bathroom will be more desirable than the one with the avocado bidet, but it’s 10k max to overhaul the bathroom.

Does that really explain the guts of 100k price drop in what is apparently a stable/rising market?

I haven’t got a clue how much renovations cost - bathrooms kitchens extensions etc. €100k is a big difference though. But you can’t say it’s simply due to the market without a comparison of the interior? What if 1 was very modern and the other a kip? Having said that wasn’t it posted before prices peaked q4 2018?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I haven’t got a clue how much renovations cost - bathrooms kitchens extensions etc. €100k is a big difference though. But you can’t say it’s simply due to the market without a comparison of the interior? What if 1 was very modern and the other a kip? Having said that wasn’t it posted before prices peaked q4 2018?

That's the point I am making. Prices were falling in this area/range, long before Covid hit.

So, my gut is some proportion of the price fall may of course be due to spec/condition etc but a larger proportion of the fall is simply due to the market.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

There are 3 4 and 5 bed houses up there. Some renovated some extended etc etc

100k won’t build a two story extension and new kitchen

Nothing to see here, prices are rising so?

PopTarts

Two houses went up for sale last month in my estate. They are both sale agreed already. Both priced higher than what houses went for before COVID. One 4 bed went for €600k+ and a 3 bed €400k+.

Different estate agents too but I’m still surprised!

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

There are 3 4 and 5 bed houses up there. Some renovated some extended etc etc

100k won’t build a two story extension and new kitchen

Googling the 540k 45 Marsham Court shows that it was a 3 bed with a BER of F.

The balance of probabilities would suggest it was not the beneficiary of a two storey extension and a new kitchen prior to sale.

Iceman29

schmittel wrote: »

Googling the 540k 45 Marsham Court shows that it was a 3 bed with a BER of F.

The balance of probabilities would suggest it was not the beneficiary of a two storey extension and a new kitchen prior to sale.

Game,set match......

HAHA don't waste anymore time on this guy, no matter what facts you give him he has a way to denying it..... he's trolling everyone here and i haven't seen any of his amazing "facts" either....

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

...
All of which begs the question, if asking prices mean nothing, why might a post saying some properties are going over asking deserve a nod of thanks whereas one that says some are going below asking deserve a rebuttal?

Or vice versus..

So, It’s ok in this group to rubbish someone seeing prices going above the asking price?

Iceman29 wrote: »

What a load of nonsense.....have you even looked into this before posting a ridiculous comment? it's gas that the deniers all liking it too.... you guys are trying so hard to keep up the charade....

But it’s a Red Flag for questioning Facts of the price Fall?

Iceman29 wrote: »

HAHA unreal. So when will you guys actually give up the charade?
Here is clear evidence from one page of checks....
What i was actually doing was proving that other poster wrong. they claimed that there wont be any price drops....... there are several facts but if you guys don't want to believe facts i really don't know what more i can do for you.

Iceman29 wrote: »

Are you trolling at this stage???
Take your head out of the sand. You are in denial.

Iceman29 wrote: »

Not really, just confusion from some who wont take proof and are simply denying facts.
I'm beginning to think they're trolling to be honest

Iceman29 wrote: »

I really cant get why the usual suspects are having such a hard time seeing what is starting to happen out there. its very strange behaviour really. They must be really open to lose a lot when this really hits or either their estate agents trying to prop it up as best as they can. Either way the fact that they're so tunnel focused is quiet funny.

Graham

Mod Note

Iceman29, if you have a problem with a post, report it.

Stop accusing people of trolling. If you're unable to refute a post in a civil manner, please don't post.

Do not reply to this post.

Iceman29

Marius34 wrote: »

Or vice versus



So, It’s ok in this group to rubbish someone seeing prices going above the asking price?
But it’s a Red Flag for questioning Facts of the price Fall?

They didnt provide facts or provide proof of what they claimed.... I was able to prove ( with facts) to suggest that contrary.

What would you normally believe in an argument that you weren't so involved/biased?

Iceman29

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

Iceman29, if you have a problem with a post, report it.

Stop accusing people of trolling. If you're unable to refute a post in a civil manner, please don't post.

Do not reply to this post.

OK that's no problem at all i won't call people trolls again but can you explain why i was warned previously please? I'm a little confused

Marius34

Iceman29 wrote: »

They didnt provide facts or provide proof of what they claimed.... I was able to prove ( with facts) to suggest that contrary.

What would you normally believe in an argument that you weren't so involved/biased?

ok, you proved some obvious thing. Meaning that there is some properties that doesn't reach the asking price, that's fine, make sense.
There is some opposite argument in contrary as well, right?
Can we agree that it's the same case that there are properties that sells above asking price, right? without wasting time looking for examples..
So there are 2 Facts, that goes both ways? but the problem I see, that we can't really tell much from those facts, which direction actual sale price currently moving..

Personally I didn't get the part about denial, what Facts has been denied here? I honestly didn't see anyone denying any facts.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Or vice versus..

So, It’s ok in this group to rubbish someone seeing prices going above the asking price?



But it’s a Red Flag for questioning Facts of the price Fall?

I think you may have missed my point Marius, not for the first time.

I never said it is ok for any poster to rubbish another, nor did I condone any 'Red Flags'.

The point I was making holds whether or not you are bullish or bearish on the market - it was about the relevance of asking prices.

To recap:

Laser said prices won't fall in this segment because every house I have bid on has gone over asking. Cyrus thanked this post.

Iceman said that's nonsense, here are some examples of houses in that segment going for under asking. (Granted the tone of this might have detracted from the point, but that was the point he was making)

Cyrus replied to Iceman say that's nonsense, asking prices are not evidence of anything. (Which I agree with 100%)

My only point was I thought it was curious that, if he agrees asking prices are indicative of nothing, why Cyrus would thank Laser's post and refute Iceman's.

The only explanation I could come up with that Iceman's suggestion (albeit expressed in a way that might not comply with the charter) of confirmation bias might actually ring true.

Certainly looks that way.

Villa05

There seems to be a mantra amongst some that properties in good locations won't fall because there will always demand for them

Maybe they might explain why in Dublin DLR is the worst performing market and Finglas is the best performing market over the past 12 months

Affordability issues will always push demand away from expensive high priced areas to more affordable areas.

Recessions will accelerate that process

Sarn

Villa05 wrote: »

There seems to be a mantra amongst some that properties in good locations won't fall because there will always demand for them

Maybe they might explain why in Dublin DLR is the worst performing market and Finglas is the best performing market over the past 12 months

Affordability issues will always push demand away from expensive high priced areas to more affordable areas.

Recessions will accelerate that process

There will be falls in good locations, and I agree that it is not surprising that DLR would be the worst performing, given the high proportion of properties costing 800k+. You are well outside FTB territory and typical mortgage salary multiples, thus affordability would be an issue and so you are more likely to see reductions.

However, there are still a lot of properties in good locations in the 400-600k bracket, which would still be affordable to those on good salaries, including FTBs (with or without very good deposits) and would be entry level houses in these good locations. It’s these properties where I would not imagine there to be that much of an impact.

As has been mentioned before, there are many different sub-markets, all playing out differently. While there will be decreases, they may not be in areas where someone wants to buy, or as big a decrease as hoped.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I think you may have missed my point Marius, not for the first time.

I never said it is ok for any poster to rubbish another, nor did I condone any 'Red Flags'.

The point I was making holds whether or not you are bullish or bearish on the market - it was about the relevance of asking prices.

To recap:

Laser said prices won't fall in this segment because every house I have bid on has gone over asking. Cyrus thanked this post.

Iceman said that's nonsense, here are some examples of houses in that segment going for under asking. (Granted the tone of this might have detracted from the point, but that was the point he was making)

Cyrus replied to Iceman say that's nonsense, asking prices are not evidence of anything. (Which I agree with 100%)

My only point was I thought it was curious that, if he agrees asking prices are indicative of nothing, why Cyrus would thank Laser's post and refute Iceman's.

The only explanation I could come up with that Iceman's suggestion (albeit expressed in a way that might not comply with the charter) of confirmation bias might actually ring true.

Certainly looks that way.

The part of his post I was thanking sad that the thread is filled with fear mongers as it happens sorry to disappoint everyone!

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Nothing to see here, prices are rising so?

Nope fair enough in that case it does appear that 45 was a pretty grotty house in a good area and someone paid over the odds for it compared to what they are achieving now but again it’s one house in one estate and you don’t know what that buyers circumstances were.

My only point is that the stats from the ppr are the best indicators that we have, they have shown a stall on dlr prices for 18-24 months now but no change beyond that YET related to the current situation.

People getting worked up over asking prices and selling prices are missing the point really. If there is a 10 percent drop in prices in dlr over the next 6 months that’s where it will be borne out .

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

someone paid over the odds for it compared to what they are achieving now

If the DLR trend continues we will see a lot more examples of people having paid over the odds in 2018 compared to what they are achieving now.

Or in other words - price falls.

kippy

schmittel wrote: »

If the DLR trend continues we will see a lot more examples of people having paid over the odds in 2018 compared to what they are achieving now.

Or in other words - price falls.

The price was the price at the time. Not 'over the odds'.
Maybe more than now but not over the odds.

hometruths

Sunday Times reporting this morning that the wage subsidy scheme will be extended to spring 2021 and "could continue at a scaled down rate until 2022".

I think we can assume that employers are not going to look a gift horse in the mouth so they will avail of this wherever possible.

I wonder what sort of effect it might have on demand?

On the one hand it will cushion the shock and maintain some level of consumer confidence in the overall economy.

But on the other hand, if the banks stick to their guns, there will be a large cohort of buyers unable to get a mortgage until late 2022.

JJJackal

schmittel wrote: »

Sunday Times reporting this morning that the wage subsidy scheme will be extended to spring 2021 and "could continue at a scaled down rate until 2022".

I think we can assume that employers are not going to look a gift horse in the mouth so they will avail of this wherever possible.

I wonder what sort of effect it might have on demand?

On the one hand it will cushion the shock and maintain some level of consumer confidence in the overall economy.

But on the other hand, if the banks stick to their guns, there will be a large cohort of buyers unable to get a mortgage until late 2022.

If the wage subsidy scheme is maintained, where will the distressed sellers come from who need to sell their properties, which is part of whats required to drive down price

hometruths

JJJackal wrote: »

If the wage subsidy scheme is maintained, where will the distressed sellers come from who need to sell their properties, which is part of whats required to drive down price

Personally I don't think distressed sellers will have a big impact no matter what happens.

i.e people will sell if they want to or need to, but there are unlikely to be too many who are forced to.

Thierry12

schmittel wrote: »

Sunday Times reporting this morning that the wage subsidy scheme will be extended to spring 2021 and "could continue at a scaled down rate until 2022".

I think we can assume that employers are not going to look a gift horse in the mouth so they will avail of this wherever possible.

I wonder what sort of effect it might have on demand?

On the one hand it will cushion the shock and maintain some level of consumer confidence in the overall economy.

But on the other hand, if the banks stick to their guns, there will be a large cohort of buyers unable to get a mortgage until late 2022.

That's great news and smart, why people wan't housing market to crash, I don't know?

By spring 2021 we will have treatments/vaccines in plentiful supply, a soft landing.