Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

ACitizenErased

20% of cases last week were travel-related

Gael23

ACitizenErased wrote: »

R-number could be as low as 0.6 and as high as 1 based on large clusters in the last week

That’s because of the Sligo case

rodders999

I know they can’t go into specifics but is there even any general indication as to what profile these 4 and 5 people we have dying most days fit in to? Are they all in nursing home setting or have you also got younger people who’ve ended up in ICU that have then sadly passed away?

ACitizenErased

rodders999 wrote: »

I know they can’t go into specifics but is there even any general indication as to what profile these 4 and 5 people we have dying most days fit in to? Are they all in nursing home setting or have you also got younger people who’ve ended up in ICU that have then sadly passed away?

as far as I recall there was only 1 death in ICU this week, so it must be outside of ICU

Van.Bosch

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The R0 increases as the cases decrease?

How does that work?

Say there is only one case in the county and they give it to 2, still only 3 people infected which is great but R0 goes to 2.

Obviously that’s an overly simplistic but that’s the theory.

Pete_Cavan

How are we denotifying so many deaths? Have been regularly denotifying them for months and over 100 of them at this stage. Are they just lumping suspected Covid-19 deaths in with the confirmed numbers and then denotifying them if they later prove to not have had it?

YellowBucket

ACitizenErased wrote: »

20% of cases last week were travel-related

What I also don't get on this is Ireland spends significantly more money abroad as tourists than we make from inbound international tourism. Tourism here is worth around 6.2 % of GDP, and while I know our GDP can be a little odd, it's still one of the smallest tourism sectors amongst our peer nations and that figure also includes domestic tourism, which is significant.

If you divert the money spent by our usual outbound tourism into domestic tourism, just for this season or a bit of 2021, we should actually be able to survive this relatively well.

We need to get things into perspective and the biggest risk right now is from movement in and out of Ireland, both of Irish people and tourists.

Even by just trying to limit the flow from places like the US to essential business travel and having focused testing would be extremely useful.

Also it's something that's an issue regardless of your nationality or residency. If you're moving in and out of high risk areas, then it's a vector issue.

Whatever about our relationship with the UK and CTA, we really do need to look at far more corporation with th Schengen countries. We are in a similar position to far more of them than we are to the UK or US when it comes to this, yet we seem to be exposing ourselves to very high risk places and I can't understand the logic of it, particularly allowing US tourists to land here when the US has banned Irish people for months now, and blamed our open border to the UK for the issue and also continues to claim we're high risk.

It's just incredibly frustrating to think that the unbelievably hard work, pragmatism and sacrifice that we've been through to get this thing suppressed over the last few months could so easily be undone by a bus load of MAGA types turning up from somewhere in the US to rediscover their roots.

The reality is if we have a second wave due to this we have more economic impacts - including increasing deficit spending, debt burdens, the schools won't be able to reopen successfully, so you've educational damage, businesses may need to lock down again and all sorts of consequences and that's not even counting the potential human tragedy if people die as a result of this.

rodders999

ACitizenErased wrote: »

as far as I recall there was only 1 death in ICU this week, so it must be outside of ICU

So it would be fairly safe to assume that the vast majority of deaths here are all still happening in nursing homes?

ShineOn7

Summary


New Cases: 15
Total Cases: 25489
New Deaths: 5
Denotified: 5

Total Deaths: 1738


Deaths

• Deaths: 1738
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 729
• Died in ICU: 89
• Underlying conditions: 1613

Of 434 in ICU

• Total ICU: 44
• Current ICU: 10
• Current Hospitalised (including ICU): 18

_____________________________________

• 5 day averaged based on Weds of preceding week
• Slightly higher number - 13 compared to 9 > We saw this before - two weeks before
• Increase in cases may be transient, short event
• Number of tests coming back positive and being carried out increase - targeted testing in nursing and residential homes
• Positivity rate in decline - 0.3%
• Average number in hospital now 21 - 40 in preceeding week
• On average 12 in ICU, one admission every 5 days
• Number of cases overall is stable - increased at the later half of last week, but decreased at the start of this week.
• Positive result based on the date the swab was taken - this has stabilised also
• Additional reported cases last week, stable this week
• Over entire epidemic - robust testing in recent days
• Growth of new cases day by day is very close to 0
• 19% of positive tests last week were travel related - half of these were people being infected by someone who had travelled (this figure is in the low teens)
• Reproductive number, with all the caveats - including all numbers and the transient increase, different estimate of reproduction number - some of these have "very long memories" and look back weeks, others look in the past 10 days, Imperial model looks at death
• These show us that the reproductive number could be as low as 0.6, or equally likely lying closely to 1. This is due to increased detection of cases at the end of last week. Range of 0.7-1.5
• If cases don't rise, or begin to fall, we are likely to be around 0.5 - we need to wait a few days to see if that stabilises.

expectationlost

from the the Indo today. not sure when this was "Almost 20 members of one family infected after Covid memorial gathering" https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/almost-20-members-of-one-family-infected-after-covid-memorial-gathering-39333751.html

The family, who live in a small Border village

ACitizenErased

expectationlost wrote: »

from the the Indo today. not sure when this was "Almost 20 members of one family infected after Covid memorial gathering" https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/almost-20-members-of-one-family-infected-after-covid-memorial-gathering-39333751.html

I've a feeling this is in Leitrim

ACitizenErased

Lollipop95

YellowBucket wrote: »

What I don't get about the our being open to US tourists, is that the US remains completely closed to Irish tourists and visitors, with very limited exceptions.

Why did we not make that reciprocal?

Are we afraid of American reactions or something? It's bizarre.

I mean here we are with the lowest COVID-19 growth rate in Europe. We've put huge effort into getting here. We've cost ourselves billions upon billions, and prevented loss of further billions by so doing, yet we've tourists from potentially highly infectious parts of the US, and who could well have quite bonkers attitudes to seeing this as entirely political, just wandering around in Killarney or wherever.

What's the point of what we just did for the last few months if we can't keep the place safe. It just makes absolutely no sense to me.

Being open to countries with similar / lower levels of risk seems pragmatic, but being open to places that have not only had very high levels of transmission, but have horrendous lack of direction and political issues around the topic seems just insane.

We should be following the Schengen area guidelines at the very least.

I thought it was announced that US residents could not travel to countries within the EU, or did I misunderstand?

Stheno

Lollipop95 wrote: »

I thought it was announced that US residents could not travel to countries within the EU, or did I misunderstand?

The Shengen zone. It doesn't include Ireland

YellowBucket

Lollipop95 wrote: »

I thought it was announced that US residents could not travel to countries within the EU, or did I misunderstand?

US residents cannot enter the Schengen area, which we are not a participant in.

They can still fly into the UK and Ireland, in our case subject to a light-touch self-quarantine that isn't even properly monitored.

podgeandrodge

wadacrack wrote: »

“We have noticed an increase in the number of cases towards the end of last week. It is a trend that NPHET will continue to monitor closely.”

Well it's going to increase a bit surely with relaxation of restrictions. But hopefully not much as we have it broadly contained and with contact tracing it should remain contained. But a small increase shouldn't be taken as any reason for not having removed the restrictions recently.

YellowBucket

The other potential risk of this is if Ireland does import a US wave of COVID-19 and we've a major outbreak, we could well find ourselves excluded (along with the UK) from travel to the Schengen Zone until we bring it back under control.

So we could literally end up with no access to North America (already barred) or Europe.

I just can't get my head around why we are continuing to take such a huge risk.

By cooperation with the Schengen Zone we would also have the international relations backing of the entire EU behind us, so we could reasonably just say "sorry - we're following standard EU policy on this. You can't come in for now."

Ficheall

I thought he said the ACDC guidance (as opposed to ECDC).. :pac: Couldn't think of any lyrics that boded well...

AlmightyCushion

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought he said the ACDC guidance (as opposed to ECDC).. :pac: Couldn't think of any lyrics that boded well...

If we don't keep this virus under control then we'll be on the highway to hell.

Always_Running

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

If we don't keep this virus under control then we'll be on the highway to hell.

Or back in black.

DebDynamite

Stheno wrote: »

The Shengen zone. It doesn't include Ireland

Oh great, so if any Americans fancy a trip to Europe, we’ll be their number one spot, as even the UK would probably be a no-go zone for them

tom1ie

Have we a reason from the government why we are still allowing USA citizens into the country at a time when we are banned by them from travelling to the USA and at a time when the EU have banned entry into the EU?

expectationlost

cork red fm not the best source but https://twitter.com/CorksRedFM/status/1278342257503080448

PixieValentine

expectationlost wrote: »

cork red fm not the best source but https://twitter.com/CorksRedFM/status/1278342257503080448

Ugh. If that's true it's SO depressing. Jesus, this virus would really make you realise how selfish people are.

JP Liz V1

travel related cases increasing

ShineOn7

tom1ie wrote: »

Have we a reason from the government why we are still allowing USA citizens into the country at a time when we are banned by them from travelling to the USA and at a time when the EU have banned entry into the EU?

"Yes, we're spineless and we don't want to piss off Trump and the Irish Hotel Association.

Shure it'll be grand"

- The Irish Government

recyclebin

Tony is stepping aside for family reasons.

speckle

my thoughts go out to Tony his wife and family at this sad time.

tom1ie

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"Yes, we're spineless and we don't want to piss off Trump and the Irish Hotel Association.

Shure it'll be grand"

- The Irish Government

Ah but seriously have we got an official statement?

ShineOn7

expectationlost wrote: »

cork red fm not the best source but https://twitter.com/CorksRedFM/status/1278342257503080448

This virus has been reduced to absolutely tiny numbers in 70% of the Republic. I can't see non business owning locals welcoming American tourists like before

It'll be more "what the hell are you doing here?" than "Cead Mile Failte"