2020 US Election

Brussels Sprout

Muahahaha wrote: »

Also have Georgia at 7/1 as the tightest margin race....

You're getting a good sweat on this bet anyway. Just a few bullets left to dodge but so far so good.

okidoki987

okidoki987 wrote: »

Was looking at that myself, down to 370 now, I'll keep my €10 at 1000/1 going for the laugh.

She's down to 290 now :eek:.

Muahahaha

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

When was Biden 12/1 to win? Right after the New Hampshire primary? Fair play if you took a punt on him then. I thought it was only a matter of time before he called it a day at that time.

No, it wasnt after the NH primary and I thought he was a gonner then too until he had that great win in South Carolina and then Super Tuesday.

I backed him at 12/1 before he even announced he was actually going to run for President so at that time it was a triple bet, that he would run, that he would win the nomination and then that he would beat Trump. iirc it was aeound July 2019 that I placed the bet, I had read a couple of articles saying that the Biden camp was seriously considering a run and he was consulting with Obama and other leading Democrats about it. At that point PP had him at 12/1 but their traders missed the articles I read for at least a week and then it dropped to 9/1 when they finally realised he was actively considering it.

Its one thing Ive noticed with the PP traders and political betting, you can catch them on the hop if you are alert to new news that has an effect on the market but they dont pick up on it quick enough. Had a similar situation with Theresa May last year, news broke at 10pm that made her exit from No.10 almost certain and immediately I took 4/1 odds on the month of the next election. I can only presume their politics traders were in bed at the time because the following morning it was slashed down to evens with the bet eventually paying out.

Degag

Can odds be gotten anywhere on who the next President will be? The current market seems to be who the next President will be as a result of the election.

Would just be interested to see what odds there were on Pence becoming President in the interim if Don resigns or is forcibly removed.

Rjd2

Degag wrote: »

Can odds be gotten anywhere on who the next President will be? The current market seems to be who the next President will be as a result of the election.

Would just be interested to see what odds there were on Pence becoming President in the interim if Don resigns or is forcibly removed.

4/1 with ladbrokes I think.

Degag

Rjd2 wrote: »

4/1 with ladbrokes I think.

Thanks. Poor-ish odds

Bobeagleburger

Trump is still 1/5 to leave in 2021. 7/1 in 2020

Also, he's 1/5 to not leave before end of his first term.

Betfair

Brussels Sprout

BFE still haven't paid out. I presume they aren't closing the market because all of the people who backed Trump on the other side of those bets would be complaining since Trump hasn't conceded and is still claiming he has a path to victory via the courts.

On the plus side, for anyone with any cash available on there, you can get 1.09 on Biden to win - That's triple what it was a few days ago. You might be waiting a while to get paid though! The Electoral College convenes on Dec 14th so I cannot see this going beyond that date.

okidoki987

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

BFE still haven't paid out. I presume they aren't closing the market because all of the people who backed Trump on the other side of those bets would be complaining since Trump hasn't conceded and is still claiming he has a path to victory via the courts.

On the plus side, for anyone with any cash available on there, you can get 1.09 on Biden to win - That's triple what it was a few days ago. You might be waiting a while to get paid though! The Electoral College convenes on Dec 14th so I cannot see this going beyond that date.

I'd say BFE won't pay out until the inauguration in January, same for Betdaq and Matchbook exchanges.
Smarkets exchange have settled it but as already said, they might regret that in the next 2 months but let's hope not.

.

Muahahaha

okidoki987 wrote: »

I'd say BFE won't pay out until the inauguration in January, same for Betdaq and Matchbook exchanges.
Smarkets exchange have settled it but as already said, they might regret that in the next 2 months but let's hope not.

.

yeah they may well wait until January which is a bit disingenious really, when he wins the EC vote in December then it is a done deal. Only thing after that would stop him becoming President is his death. If you had a rake of cash the 1.09 from Betfair seems like free money. All these Trump legal cases are just going to get laughed out of court, they're a bottle of smoke and nothing more.

Just checked my PP account and no payouts on bets for Dems to win Wisconsin, Michigan or Arizona. Would say it will be at least 2 weeks before the recounts are complete. Had already cashed out on my Georgia bet at a small loss of stake, pulled the trigger too early on that one.

okidoki987

Matchbook Exchange have now paid out.
Reading Betdaq t&c's:

Next US Presidential Election - Election Winner

Which nominee will win the 2020 US Presidential election?

At the start of voting on election day, all unmatched bets, except for those selected to go in-running, will be cancelled and the market will be turned In-Running.

In the event of any ambiguity surrounding official announcements on the election, we will, at our discretion, settle the market based on all the available information at that time.

Users should be aware that odds can change significantly, and that it is each individual's responsibility to amend or cancel any offers they have made, should they so wish.

Updated 03/06/2010

For more information see Terms and Conditions

In the event a candidate in a market dies through assassination then the market is void. Should a candidate die naturally, then the market will be settled as usual.

Betfair Exchange has turned over €100 million on it since election day to bring total up to €675 million.
If this runs for a while, turnover will go over €1 billion :eek:.
Flutter (PP, Betfair and Sky Bet) announced results today and online turnover was up 33% for the 3rd quarter!
Might be a bit higher after the US elections.

Mike Pence yesterday went from 1000 to 780 and back up to 1000, someone must have been bored.

WhiteMan32

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden still available at 1.05 on BetFair. Free Money

Has since doubled to 1.1 - more free money or are there pundits who have increased their belief that Republicans could still win, as counting continues in four states and are still too close to call ?

Muahahaha

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

Has since doubled to 1.1 - more free money or are there pundits who have increased their belief that Republicans could still win, as counting continues in four states and are still too close to call ?

The conservative media in the US is full of claims that its not over, Trump will win his legal cases, etc so not surprising that there are some believers out there. The administration are telling their followers that they will win, its just a matter of time. Its all a strategy to save Trump face as he cannot stand losing, it kills him inside. So he buries his head in the sand instead.

Regards the recounts -I dont see any chance that states will be flipped upon it. In 2016 they had a recount of Wisconsin and all they found was about 150 odd votes which went the other way. In recounts mistakes on both sides tend to more or less balance each other out, they might find a couple of hundred of votes but theres no way they are finding tens of thousands of them to flip.

Bobeagleburger

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

Has since doubled to 1.1 - more free money or are there pundits who have increased their belief that Republicans could still win, as counting continues in four states and are still too close to call ?

Delay the process to past the Electoral College drop dead date in December is maybe the big risk.That's the only way Trump could win.

A contingent election process then replaces the electoral college process. It then comes down to voting in both houses and then individual states . Republicans would win it this way.

Unlikely as civil war may break out !! Still though, it's an outside chance!

3DataModem

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

Has since doubled to 1.1 - more free money or are there pundits who have increased their belief that Republicans could still win, as counting continues in four states and are still too close to call ?

The value on Biden betting now is all those with balances locked up trying to get something out before January.

A lot of gamblers would rather 460 now then 500 in January, hence anyone with the stones to take all their action on the exchanges is cleaning up...

Cirrus Incus

Biden is 1.15 for winning Georgia on Betfair. The state is due a recount by hand, but Biden has a 14k lead. Looks like free money to me. Am I missing something here?

Muahahaha

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Biden is 1.15 for winning Georgia on Betfair. The state is due a recount by hand, but Biden has a 14k lead. Looks like free money to me. Am I missing something here?

Would say that is free money with the exception of three completely left field events happening
-A massive error in reporting of vote tallies in the first place
-Voter fraud being discovered at a level that the Georgia Supreme Court declares the result null & void
-Faithless electors at the electoral college voting against the peoples will

Regards the recount itself Trump is just wasting time and money. No way does he claw back 14,000 votes, for every Democratic ballot they discard it will be more or less matched by a Republican ballot also being discarded. This is the way recounts go in all democracies, unless there is some massive irregularity the total only changes by a few hundred votes.

Consider the recount in Wisconsin in 2016

In 2016, Wisconsin's recount took about 12 days. It actually increased Trump's margin of victory, adding 131 votes, or 0.06% of the nearly 3 million votes cast. He won the state by 22,748 votes.

Thats a full recount of 3 million votes and it only increased Trump by 131 votes. Georgia has a bigger number of votes at just under 5 million but even if they found twice the amount that they did in Wisconsin in 2016 it still wouldnt come anywhere near to the 14,000 they need.

adrian522

It's beyond farcical that they are saying the result is not clear. It's crystal clear that its a landslide and there is no logical path to trump winning short of a military coup.

How many millions are betfair making on interest on stakes on this market?

The outcome of the US election remains unclear so here's an update (dated Friday, 18:00) on how Betfair will settle its markets...

Ordinarily in a US election, a result declaration from various news networks would be followed by a concession speech by the losing candidate.

This would trigger the settlement of the remaining Betfair markets. It's what happened in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

As you know - and as was widely predicted - 2020 is no ordinary election! One reason for this is the turnout which looks set to be the highest for over a century. This means it's taking longer to count the votes, especially in swing states.

Another factor is the possibility that the losing candidate may challenge the results in the courts.

We will only settle the markets when there is certainty around which candidate has the most projected Electoral College votes.

Before settling the markets, we must therefore wait for clarity around ongoing vote counts, recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results.

There was nothing about a concession speech in their market settlement rules, which is correct as its completely irrelevant.
It's been clear for over a week which candidate has the most projected electoral college votes.

Bobeagleburger

adrian522 wrote: »

It's beyond farcical that they are saying the result is not clear. It's crystal clear that its a landslide and there is no logical path to trump winning short of a military coup.

How many millions are betfair making on interest on stakes on this market?



There was nothing about a concession speech in their market settlement rules, which is correct as its completely irrelevant.
It's been clear for over a week which candidate has the most projected electoral college votes.

People are cleaning up currently. Surely not a bad thing!

Brussels Sprout

It's pretty frustrating alright now. My entire bankroll on BFE is locked up in that market. I normally like to lay some draws on a Saturday afternoon but I can't do that. Had to take inferior odds as well for The Masters with PP.

At this stage we're going to need to wait for one the following to happen:

1. Trump Concedes directly or indirectly
2. He stops filing new law suits completely removing any possible path to victory for him
3. Biden is elected in the Electoral College on Dec 14th
4. Biden is inaugurated on Jan 20th (worst case scenario)

Rjd2

1.05 finally some movement.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024/winner?selectionName=donald-trump

Some bookies have 2024 priced, its on a load of other sites but ladbrokes so slow to display them.

Can't see any Dem daring to challenge Harris in 2024, Michelle Obama if bored would win easily, but don't see her been interested .

On the Republican side very messy with Trump liking to feature either running or essentially acting as a king maker which means its no surprise the likes of Hawley, De Santiis and others have supported his folly of trying to get the election over turned.

I can't see any value, I know Crenshaw was 250/1 a few weeks ago and I could not get on, his current price of 66/1 not interesting enough sadly.

Hailey at 14/1 seems a terrible price, the establishment will want her, but don't think the Trump base have much time for her despite her shilling for Trump over the years.

Muahahaha

Interesting that they have Biden at 5/1, I know alot of people are expecting him to hand over the reigns to Harris in 2024 but he hasnt said it explicitly AFAIK, his options are still open and after a couple of years as POTUS he could well decide to run again. It would make him 86 on completing a second term which is insane really but if he has no health scares and his term goes well he might think of capitalising on it. His term should see the end of the virus by vaccine and then the economy bouncing back strongly, he will have a lot of credit in the bank when that happens.

Nikki Haley would seem a contender on the Rep side though if it is v Harris they might want a man. In any case its way too early, theres no point in tying up money for 4 years and taking the risk that some candidate who is relatively unknown right now later emerges and gains momentum.

Brussels Sprout

I saw Biden's sister said that she thought that he would run again in 4 years. Whether she actually believes that or it's going to be the official line until he announces that he will not, I do not know. Chances are, at this stage he doesn't know himself and is going to see how he gets on in the job. If he decides not to run again he probably will not announce that until after the mid-terms in 2 years time. He'd probably give Harris a heads up as well before then so she'll have all the advantages for gaining the nomination. There isn't anyone from the progressive wing of the party who is the right age or has the right experience to put up a reasonable challenge.

As for the other side. So many unknowns. Will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.

Muahahaha

Yeah Id say Biden will hold his cards close to his chest for a couple of years and then see what the lay of the land is. A lot depends on his health but if he avoids any scares and has a good term he may well run again. I still wouldnt be tying up money at 5/1 in him for four years though. I noticed also that the bookies are offering odds on AOC at 16/1 which is completely disingenuous as she is too young to qualify to even run for it.

As for the other side you couldnt rule out Trump running again, his whole stolen election thing is basically setting the ground work for it now and that would serve as a rallying call for his base in 4 years time as they actually believe it and would turn out in numbers again. Trump hates losing and this will eat him up inside so Id well say he wants to run again. Though alot depends on where his legal troubles lead him, he has some pretty serious legal cases coming his way, both criminal and civil and the outcomes of those are not going to win over independents.

If one of Eric or Ivanka ran I cant even see them getting the nomination from the RNC, they're simply not Trump and they'd be destroyed in the bear pit that is the primaries.

Bobeagleburger

Ivanka tends to the one that that doesn't go down the conspiracy theory route with her tweets. Eric is mirroring his father.

Neither should even be considered but all bets are off these days!

yaboya1

Betfair Exchange have settled all the states Trump won, yet have not settled any of the electoral college handicap markets.
This makes no sense and is inconsistent with settling the states that Trump won.
Trump cannot lose the +81.5, +100.5, +120.5 or +140.5 based on the markets they've already settled, yet you get the same nonsense from them about waiting until all the votes are counted before settlement despite the fact that they haven't followed that logic for most of the state markets.

Bobeagleburger

You can still get 1.16 on Trump's leaving year being 2021.

Also, 1.13 if he will complete first term available.

Muahahaha

Id say it is Betfair waiting until December 14th when the EC votes are actually voted for by delegates from each state. While they're supposed to follow what the people say you can have faithless electors who dont do what is expected of them. In 2016 there was a few of them who refused to vote for Trump in the electoral college even though he had won their state. Id expect similar this time with some electors claiming the election was rigged so refusing to vote for Biden. In fact Id say the Trump campaign are actively working on making it so in a hope to topple the swing states.

Just checked my PP account and they too have paid out on all the state betting and a 300-330 EC vote bet I had. Still waiting on the tightest margin bet for Georgia which wont be settled until all recounts are complete. Both Georgia and Arizona only have a 0.3% in the difference between Trump & Biden so it is ridiculously close and wont be known for another week or so. Its going to go down to thousandths of a percent.

Rjd2

6 wrote: »

Ivanka tends to the one that that doesn't go down the conspiracy theory route with her tweets. Eric is mirroring his father.

Neither should even be considered but all bets are off these days!

Trump has incredible charisma something which he has not passed down to his kids:p.

If I were to have a bet right now, maybe De Santiis in Florida, Trumpy but far from a moron, charismatic and would do well with the ever increasing Hispanic vote. Only because he is 100/1 though as you wouldn't want to tie money up on such a market for so long. I seen Dan Crenshaw at 250/1 with Ladbrokes a few months ago, but better chance of getting a date with Beyonce than them laying a politics bet. :mad:

yaboya1

Muahahaha wrote: »

Id say it is Betfair waiting until December 14th when the EC votes are actually voted for by delegates from each state. While they're supposed to follow what the people say you can have faithless electors who dont do what is expected of them.

Well they shouldn't be doing that given this is what their own terms and conditions say:

"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. "