2020 US Election

okidoki987

Muahahaha wrote: »

PP are currently offering me cashout at slightly below 10/1. I should probably just cut and run but everything is trending towards Biden right now, he is currently 1.2 on the exchanges..

Why don't you just lay him at 1.23 current exchange odds?
You will always get better odds laying it yourself instead of using the cash out option.
You could either lay him to guarantee to get your stake back or split the profit
so you have the same profit on both candidates so doesn't matter who wins.

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I have a similar longstanding bet on Biden @ 10/1 with Bet365. For some reason cashout seems to be frozen at about half the jackpot. I'd take it if it properly reflected current odds but i'd say I'm safe enough holding out for the full thing.

As above.
Cashout will never be the same as current odds as bookmakers take additional margin and the stake will also have a bearing on the cashout offer.
It's easy enough to do on the exchange even if you have never done it before.
It would be a massive price but there is the very outside chance that neither would win so also bear that in mind.

Loafing Oaf

okidoki987 wrote: »

As above.
Cashout will never be the same as current odds as bookmakers take additional margin and the stake will also have a bearing on the cashout offer.
It's easy enough to do on the exchange even if you have never done it before.
It would be a massive price but there is the very outside chance that neither would win so also bear that in mind.

Have stuck a bit on Trump @ 7/2 just for peace of mind. Probably not the same value as laying but I just want to make sure I'm not out of pocket if something mad happens in Arizona or wherever...

okidoki987

As the saying goes, "a profit is a profit".

Muahahaha

adrian522 wrote: »

I backed him at 3/1 last night, missed out on the 4/1, was hoping it would drift further but it didn't.

Only a small bet but satisfying to get odds like that so late in the day.

I got it at 3, but it went back out to 3.6 after that but I didn't throw any further cash at it.

You did well, he was only at 4/1 for about 30 minutes on the exchanges and then it slid back to 3s. Was tempted myself but at the time Florida had fallen Trump and he had leads in a good few important states and it was looking like a repeat of 2016.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I have a similar longstanding bet on Biden @ 10/1 with Bet365. For some reason cashout seems to be frozen at about half the jackpot. I'd take it if it properly reflected current odds but i'd say I'm safe enough holding out for the full thing.

yeah Im hanging on for the full 12/1. It seems obvious now that this race is Bidens. Only problem is Trump and his court cases, that could throw a spanner in the works for a while anyway. But if Biden takes a few more states there would be no point in court cases so hoping it plays out that way now.

Loafing Oaf

Those guys who were lumping on Trump in the small hours, driving his odds down and convincing me and others he had it won, did they genuinely think they had calculated all the angles or were they just chancing their arm, following the herd?

The Phantom Jipper

Squeaky bum time last night at 1/7. Commiserations to the people throwing good money after bad on Trump, hopefully there was a few quid available on cash out.

ianburke

biden still 1.3 so the market still has it very close

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Those guys who were lumping on Trump in the small hours, driving his odds down and convincing me and others he had it won, did they genuinely think they had calculated all the angles or were they just chancing their arm, following the herd?

I'd guess it was after Florida and then follow the money.
The problem is you don't which is a false gamble and which is a real one.
If you follow the wrong one, it's curtains and I've done it myself on other
markets .

paddythere

okidoki987 wrote: »

Mike Pence is 1000 (Maximum price allowed) on Betfair Exchange to back.
The Stakes were €10,561 about 2 hours ago, now it's €8,700 which means either people looking to lay him have pulled their bets or other people have backed him!
Now that would be funny.

I read a rumour a few months back that if Trump lost the election he would step down and let Pence takeoever before January in order to pardon him... Could be smart money

Loafing Oaf

okidoki987 wrote: »

I'd guess it was after Florida and then follow the money.
The problem is you don't which is a false gamble and which is a real one.
If you follow the wrong one, it's curtains and I've done it myself on other
markets .

But is it all just the (supposed) wisdom of crowds, or are there a few bettors who are trusted by others as knowing their political stuff? If the logic is purely "Everybody else is doing it so it must be right", isn't there a risk a stampede can be triggered by a few random big bets?

Muahahaha

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Those guys who were lumping on Trump in the small hours, driving his odds down and convincing me and others he had it won, did they genuinely think they had calculated all the angles or were they just chancing their arm, following the herd?

Id say there was definitely a herd mentality behind it, especially when he won Florida and people were thinking we were getting a 2016 repeat. The market went wild for Trump after that around 2am but in hindsight he was always expected to win Florida and him doing it wasnt the big red signal that many in the market thought it was. Then when Fox called Arizona for Biden at around 4am the market woke up that it was far from over and started to push back the other way.

okidoki987

paddythere wrote: »

I read a rumour a few months back that if Trump lost the election he would step down and let Pence takeoever before January in order to pardon him... Could be smart money

Not really as if Trump loses the election, Biden wins it and he then becomes president so bet would then be a loser.

The layers are back and lay stake is back over €11k now.

Loafing Oaf

Muahahaha wrote: »

Id say there was definitely a herd mentality behind it, especially when he won Florida and people were thinking we were getting a 2016 repeat. The market went wild for Trump after that around 2am but in hindsight he was always expected to win Florida and him doing it wasnt the big red signal that many in the market thought it was. Then when Fox called Arizona for Biden at around 4am the market woke up that it was far from over and started to push back the other way.

IIRC Trump was in to 1/2 or so to win individual rust belt swing states after he took Florida. Were people lumping on him in these markets purely because he had won Florida? I find it hard to believe serious bettors operate in such a reckless 'finger in the air' way?

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But is it all just the (supposed) wisdom of crowds, or are there a few bettors who are trusted by others as knowing their political stuff? If the logic is purely "Everybody else is doing it so it must be right", isn't there a risk a stampede can be triggered by a few random big bets?

There may well be bettors who are the ones to follow but unless they are talking on social media, you will never know what they are doing, if they have done it and so on unless they want people to know.
Journalists used to take positions in the financial markets on a Friday and then write an article in certain English Sunday newpapers about it.
Strangely the markets would always move in their favour on the Monday.
The UK authorities stopped them doing this some years ago but I'm sure there are many ways around these rules & regulations.
I know guys who have closed positions because of the size of the bids or offers opposite to them and they reckon people know more than they they do and have the inside track.

Happens all the time in football betting when people find out certain players are out and they start backing on the exchanges.
You would see a pre-match WDW market move for no reason and then couple hours later, find out star player x isn't playing or manager has put out a reserve team.

Muahahaha

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

IIRC Trump was in to 1/2 or so to win individual rust belt swing states after he took Florida. Were people lumping on him in these markets purely because he had won Florida? I find it hard to believe serious bettors operate in such a reckless 'finger in the air' way?

Id say thats exactly what it was, the prevailing market sentiment and momentum is a powerful thing and when he took Florida lots of money flooded on expecting lightning to strike twice. The way they do elections on tv in the US with the constant updates and fervourish atmosphere lends itself well to people making split second decisions and going hard on a trend, even when its backed into oblivion.

In fairness Florida showed early that the polls were wrong and outside the margin of error so Id guess that gave some people encouragement to take a leap of faith. But once his price started to crash downwards from 3.0 to 2.5 there was then a definite herd mentality at play that pushed it further as low as 1.2. It seemed like a real element of 'he done it in 2016 and I dont want to miss the train'. Must admit it got me thinking he could cause another upset and as a result I was sitting watching Bidens odds at 4.0 but didnt have the stomach for it.

Rjd2

Biden probably wins thankfully for my bank balance.:p

So ignoring that race, annoyed the polling industry talked me out of so much other value bets.

Florida

Republicans were odds against here at times over last few weeks, absurd.


Susan Collins

I seen 2/1 for her and yet again she pulls it out. I don't like her but like Manchin she is a shrewd operator who knows how to win. Arguably one of the biggest polling errors of the night as she was supposedly doomed in them all.

Republicans Senate Majority

Seen 3/1 here,, like many got distracted by the immense fund raising of those challenging the likes of Graham etc and in most cases hammerings were handed out.

paddythere

okidoki987 wrote: »

Not really as if Trump loses the election, Biden wins it and he then becomes president so bet would then be a loser.

The layers are back and lay stake is back over €11k now.

"Next president" markets

ianburke

is biden a good bet at 1.17 on betfair now?

Roonbox

ianburke wrote: »

is biden a good bet at 1.17 on betfair now?

Not really, and yes

Royale with Cheese

I lumped on Biden 3 days ago at 1.4 after being convinced by someone "in the know" that 40% return on him was great value. I felt pretty sick around 3am last night, absolute crazy swings going one way then the other. It appears to have worked out in the end but I think it's fairly obvious now that 40% return on Biden was absolutely terrible value, this was neck and neck. Whatever price you got Trump at pre counting, you'd have made plenty of profit cashing out at the right time last night.

Brussels Sprout

ianburke wrote: »

it appears Accumulator has been banned. not sure what he did but i for one will miss his unusual posts.

this thread has been a cracking read i have to say.

In fairness to him (going out on a limb that it's a him) it seems that being bullish on Trump wasn't the error that I thought it was.

Thing is though that he was on about backing Trump when Trump's price ballooned like it did 4 years ago after early exit polls. That opportunity never arose this time as far as I am aware. Instead it was a bit the opposite.

If one had a crystal ball the real money was to be made backing Biden at around 3am or whenever Biden's early leads were evaporating in Florida, Texas and Ohio. Unfortunately I had already emptied the clip on both my BF and PP accounts and besides the point I'm not sure I would have been brave enough to back Biden at that time.

To be honest the money was an after-thought for me. I despise Trump and everything that he represents. I realised during election night that I was far too emotionally invested in seeing him lose. Normally I love election counts and all the analysis but that was absolute torture.

I cashed a little bit of my stake out yesterday just because I wanted to take some of the risk out of my bets - when I was putting that money down I didn't think that it would be this close. The bulk of it is still in there though and I'll wait for the final decision one way or the other.

okidoki987

Kamala Harris is gone in from around 800 to 290 on the exchanges, Biden is also down to 1.11 so looking like Trumps journey is slowing down.

Royale with Cheese

https://news.paddypower.com/politics/2020/11/05/us-election-when-will-president-bets-markets-be-settled/

My cash out offer from them increased significantly lately, that explains why. Cash out now or we could keep your money for a month or two.

BQQ

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

In fairness to him (going out on a limb that it's a him) it seems that being bullish on Trump wasn't the error that I thought it was.

Thing is though that he was on about backing Trump when Trump's price ballooned like it did 4 years ago after early exit polls. That opportunity never arose this time as far as I am aware. Instead it was a bit the opposite.

If one had a crystal ball the real money was to be made backing Biden at around 3am or whenever Biden's early leads were evaporating in Florida, Texas and Ohio. Unfortunately I had already emptied the clip on both my BF and PP accounts and besides the point I'm not sure I would have been brave enough to back Biden at that time.

To be honest the money was an after-thought for me. I despise Trump and everything that he represents. I realised during election night that I was far too emotionally invested in seeing him lose. Normally I love election counts and all the analysis but that was absolute torture.

I cashed a little bit of my stake out yesterday just because I wanted to take some of the risk out of my bets - when I was putting that money down I didn't think that it would be this close. The bulk of it is still in there though and I'll wait for the final decision one way or the other.

Trump out to 14 on Betfair now, so he can fill his boots now

okidoki987

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

https://news.paddypower.com/politics/2020/11/05/us-election-when-will-president-bets-markets-be-settled/

My cash out offer from them increased significantly lately, that explains why. Cash out now or we could keep your money for a month or two.

How to panic punters and push them to move to a cash out! :mad:

okidoki987

okidoki987 wrote: »

Kamala Harris is gone in from around 800 to 290 on the exchanges, Biden is also down to 1.11 so looking like Trumps journey is slowing down.

On the exchanges, she went from 290 straight back out to 530 and now 2 hours later, she's down to 380.
Somebody is backing her at big odds.

Muahahaha

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

https://news.paddypower.com/politics/2020/11/05/us-election-when-will-president-bets-markets-be-settled/

My cash out offer from them increased significantly lately, that explains why. Cash out now or we could keep your money for a month or two.

Cashing out now probably is the best thing to do because at a minimum there is going to be a recount in Wisconsin and Georgia and maybe Nevada too. Could be looking at about two weeks for that alone. I checked PP there and they're still offering me just over 10/1 on a 12/1 bet on Biden to win. Will wait to see what later tonight brings as if Pennsylvannia falls to Biden then the Trump side might just throw in the towel.

Ive money on Oscoff in the Georgia senate which I thought was a lost bet but now it turns out his opponent Perdue has dropped below 50% for the first time which means they will have a run off on January 5th so the bet lives on to fight another day. That battle will be epic as control of the whole Senate could be on the line, both parties are expected to each spend $100m+ on it in one state alone which is insane.

Also have Georgia at 7/1 as the tightest margin race and it has now overtaken Nevada, just 0.3% separates the two candidates in Georiga. If Biden can take that and Penn then he can go over the 300 EC votes where Ive another bet at 8/1 for 300-330 EC votes. I dont think he will take Georgia though, he is catching Trump but a good slice of the remaining votes to be counted are from military serving overseas and they tend to break for the Republicans. Its going to be very close either way, even if Biden does take it then it will be by just a couple of thousand votes so there will definitely be a recount and court cases in the aftermath.

Royale with Cheese

I've €200 profit to take from them and they're offering me €140. No thanks, I can wait.

Brussels Sprout

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

https://news.paddypower.com/politics/2020/11/05/us-election-when-will-president-bets-markets-be-settled/

My cash out offer from them increased significantly lately, that explains why. Cash out now or we could keep your money for a month or two.

Got a 404 on that link so I guess they have changed their mind on whatever that said