Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

California Dreamer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123631719#Comment_123631719

Do you not think that they possess mountains of data about passenger numbers to certain destinations and have information that we can only dream about? Sorry you are not excited but EI have never taken a risk when it comes to route planning and I don't see them starting now.

sherology

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123631959#Comment_123631959

9hr50 from lhr (about the same as MCO) so about 9.15 from dub on a (faster cruise) widebody. With weather/diversion fuel reserves, slower cruise speed, and EI's super safe fueling regime, it's probably possible (aka. Iberias XLRs do close to that) but likely a bit too far for comfort... Would be a good route though, albeit Nashville is more of a instant 'destination' than MSY.

Noxegon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123633198#Comment_123633198

This is a fun one, but I'll bite – no, I don't think that they have "mountains of data".

I'm quite sure that Aer Lingus have some idea of demand to certain cities, but the only way to know with certainty how many passengers are interested in taking a direct service from A to B is to operate it and see what happens. Anything else is guesswork. Informed/educated guesswork perhaps – but guesswork nonetheless.

Let's consider Pittsburgh for example – a random choice on my part. An Irish passenger can get there today in a few ways:

• Connecting flight through Heathrow, Reyjkavik, or one of the US hubs
• Driving from Cleveland, Philadelphia, or Washington

There's no way an airline will know where someone took their rental car. Check-in systems will clearly have data about who used connecting flights, but would airline A be willing to share their data with airline B?

I agree with your point about Aer Lingus being risk averse mind.

Tenger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123631978#Comment_123631978

Aer Lingus operated BWI 20 years ago. Before they had slots at IAD.

What would be the point of doing DUB-BWI with IAD only 90 mins away, and PHL 2 hours away?

MICKEYG

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123634752#Comment_123634752

There are other airports they serve that are very close to each other, the obvious being EWR and JFK.

I think PHL is within 90mins of EWR and they serve it twice daily.

Baltimore is a big city on its own with a large Irish diaspora so may have the numbers to sustain a 3/4 weekly 321.

cson

BWI could be a runner for sure, BA seem to be running a 777 on it year round now which suggests the demand is there.

It’s an easier option for anyone on the Delaware Beaches or Ocean City (500k ish) which includes a ton of retirees you could shuttle to Europe and there’s a decent catchment area of Harrisburg-York-Lebanon MSA (~1.3m people) where it’d be the most convenient option.

IAG have the numbers on it & it’d be an easy enough route to slot an A321 into I reckon, the BA infrastructure is already there to use.

Tenger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123634769#Comment_123634769

EWR and JFK happen to serve a massive urban area, and could be seen as 2 distinct markets themselves. (EWR for NYC and JFK for conenctions)

PHL and IAD being only 90 mins away is a factor against a flight to BWI.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123633611#Comment_123633611

AA and EI have a joint business arrangement for transatlantic traffic (together with IB, BA etc) so EI taking up Charlotte may be because their fleet and crew is more available/suitable for the route.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123635948#Comment_123635948

Plus no real connecting tours for AA flights (CLt, DFW and MIA already served).

Jamie2k9

Warsaw starts earlier and increased freq this year. 1 Dec-11 Jan (x4 weekly) for Christmas markets.

thebiglad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123639533#Comment_123639533

I did Warsaw for xmas markets (and have a friend to visit there) - never again, very poor - Krakow wipes the floor with Warsaw if doing Poland.

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123641448#Comment_123641448

I’ve done both plus Wrocław & think Wrocław would put both Warsaw & Krakow to shame - purely my opinion mind

kevinandrew

I always thought the Warsaw flights at Christmas were almost entirely for the Polish diaspora here? I doubt many are travelling there for the markets.

Aer Lingus used to send an A330 a few years back. It's a pity they can't make it work year round, or at least summer + Christmas.

lordleitrim

What is the appeal of stalls selling homemade Christmas decorations, crafts and mulled wine that people are willing to fly across continents to see them? I get that they're a pleasant attraction to visit for a couple of hours while already in a city but planning a whole city break and indeed airlines planning routes around them means there must be something in their appeal that I'm missing.....

Nolimits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123642360#Comment_123642360

I've wondered this too. I've never actually gone to one so I might also be missing something, but I think I'd just look at them for a few minutes, think how lovely it looks and then wonder what else there is to do.

ciandonn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123642334#Comment_123642334

I 100% agree, Wroclaw christmas markets are amazing and the city itself is also really nice. I know many irish students go to university there as well (usually for veterinary). I think Krakow has a better year round appeal though with so much to do all year.

(I have been to both and would recommend you visit the two of them. Both have high frequencies from Shannon as well so I could see one of these routes materialising in the future, most likely Krakow)

kevinandrew

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123642360#Comment_123642360

Most airlines wouldn't plan a route around Christmas markets, I don't believe Aer Lingus has in this instance either. It's just a handy marketing tool for what will largely be flights for the Polish diaspora going back home for the holidays.

While I wouldn't specifically go for the markets alone, many cities in central and eastern Europe are worth a visit around that time of year because of the effort they go to. The tree lighting ceremonies in places like Vilnius and Kaunas are quite the spectacle, totally free, traditional and feel really authentic. It's night and day compared to the watered down, commercialised stuff we get in Ireland and Britain.

L1011

An Irish Christmas market = stalls selling the exact same Chinese made crap, maybe one place doing the worst mulled wine in the world. Just cold

European one = some slightly more genuine looking stuff to buy, gluhwein/gloggi/whatever it's called in that country everywhere, roasted chestnuts, actual snow…

It works well if you're in to Christmas basically. But it can be wallet emptying. Was in Dresden for Christmas 2023 and found the main market too generic; but a secondary Finnish themed one (in Germany…) great.

Touristx73

DUB-TRN, ORK-GVA and ORK-PRG on sale now.

LiamaDelta

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123642986#Comment_123642986

They wouldn't exactly plan a route around it but it seems that there is sufficient demand from travel agents that they are happy to add extra scheduled flights. The christmas market demand from travel agents is huge. People like the idea of being able to book a quick short break with everything included, particularly as they are in cities that wouldn't really be familiar to regular travellers, unlike say jumping on a flight to Lanzarote.

Shamrockj

the Christmas markets have always been popular the likes of Munich, Vienna, Berlin, Frankfurt and Prague etc have always been popular for Christmas markets and it’s getting more and more popular. It’s somewhere to go before the Christmas holidays and something different for a short break even closer to home Belfast markets are very popular.

jwm121

Now that the ridiculous night cap is sorted out EI can focus on what new routes they can open up with the next XLRs for S26! (Hopefully)

StakeholderValue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123642359#Comment_123642359

Frankly ridiculous EI have zero routes to the capital city of 6th largest economy in EU and 20th largest economy in the world. Seems like EI happy enough to have ceded all routes (bar PRG) east of Berlin to FR.

IngazZagni

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123644653#Comment_123644653

I think you are greatly underestimating the huge demand of Polish people returning home for Christmas. This is the primary reason for adding these flight at Christmas, not the markets. Otherwise the route wouldn't continue until January 11th as well. The same is true of almost all Eastern European destinations around this time and FR do massive business in that regard on these routes.

I'd love to see stats from the airport showing the amount of people leaving Ireland vs returning home to Ireland at Christmas these days. Id bet far more people leave; contrary to the media narrative.

BestWestern

The route was served by both Lot and Aer Lingus (using A321s) in the past, but they couldn't compete with Ryanair. Now that the transatlantic connectivity has improved, I'm surprised they haven't tried it again.

kevinandrew

Aer Lingus once served Warsaw, Krakow, Poznan, Vilnius, Riga and Bucharest among others in Central and Eastern Europe. All have been ceded to Ryanair as the airline retreats more and more to summer sun where the market is big enough for them to have a healthy share of the profits instead of actually competing.

Even Budapest, a very popular city break, is barely 5 weekly in the summer with woeful connection opportunities and drops to 3 weekly in winter, suspended in January. Ryanair is daily year round.

Aer Lingus is very lucky that Ryanair keeps other competitors away, if Wizzair or Easyjet decided to show up and targeted summer sun, they'd be in serious trouble. Ryanair's past aggression towards these airlines in Ireland means they stay well away but that might not be forever.

MICKEYG

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123647857#Comment_123647857

Agreed, plus Ryanair use Modlin which is more painful to get to than Chopin. I flew there recently and opted to connect through CPH. Also, Ryanair flight times change each day so harder to plan. I used the EI route a lot in the past (about once per year) and it started busy but you could anecdotally see the numbers dropping. Connections to DUBHUB might be possible for the afternoon bank of flights. So early to Warsaw after the transatlantic arrivals and then back in time for the late departures to the US.

I think it is a 3 hour flight time so (back of envelope)

• Leave DUB: 7am
• Arrive WAW: 10am (11am local)
• Leave WAW: 11.30am local
• Arrive DUB: 1.30pm local

Qaanaaq

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123646883#Comment_123646883

I guess that they were all either loss making or low yield for EI. Much more money to be made by transporting Irish families to Lanzarote en masse.

StakeholderValue

Quote missing. Added below.

StakeholderValue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123647857#Comment_123647857

Particularly given Poland joining the Visa Waiver Programme only in the last few years, the large growth of US multinationals and the significant increase in Polish citizens wealth since EI pulled off the route.