Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

kevinandrew

Ryanair’s Irish numbers are around 20m, and from Dublin alone it’s almost 16m so they’re streets ahead. At one stage, during Aer Lingus’ rapid short haul expansion they were marginally bigger in Dublin and considerably bigger at Cork but are now in a very distant second place.

Aer Lingus has grown considerably (and profitably) across the Atlantic in recent years which is a key factor in their current financial success but in the meantime Ryanair has dominated the short haul opportunities leaving Aer Lingus with its old favourites and a few scraps.

There is probably a case for considerable European expansion; the leisure market is strong, the brand well positioned and cost base competitive but it would require a lot of new investment which IAG simply isn’t interested in for what is a very competitive environment in Ireland. If you think about it, all the recent investment in short haul was purely coincidental; the first A320neo’s were opportunistic, the rest are being drip fed at a glacial pace and now seem conditional on new labour agreements. The cabin ‘improvements’ are just the bog standard off the shelf IAG spec, none of the older A320s are being invested in for retrofit or densification.

Aer Lingus short haul looks set to continue plodding along with big summer profits which offset the moderate winter losses allowing for minimal investment from the parent while they focus on the larger markets in London, Madrid and Barcelona. Also worth noting their new focus on BA Euroflyer at Gatwick and continued investment in IB Express and of course Vueling which goes from strength to strength all operating in competitive markets but very much in their own niche and well shielded from direct Ryanair competition.

cson

Lets be realistic re short haul expansion: IAG don't want to do it/compete with FR.

EI are effectively a US dedicated LHR runway 3 to them for all intents & purposes.

kevinandrew

Possibly more than just an empty threat…

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/iag-boss-warns-aer-lingus-investment-stalled-until-pilot-pay-sorted/a144864796.html

Iberia nabbed the A359s, now looks like they’re lined up to take the XLRs unless Aer Lingus can reach an agreement with pilots and they’re long way off that.

Shows you how far away the airline is from ever getting a next generation wide body fleet replacement if an aircraft that is literally in final assembly is being threatened by the parent company.

LimaRomeo990

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121833264#Comment_121833264

Their short haul expansion has been sun routes only since Covid restrictions lifted. I get they need to go where demand and money is but surely other EU routes would work ex Dublin and feed Transatlantic routes.

Even in Cork, it’s great to get the 3rd 320 back but that didn’t add much only a few extra rotations and ORK TFS. They are even afraid to go against FR there. It would have been good to at least get ORK LIS back.

MICKEYG

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121794312#Comment_121794312

Same issue in incognito, after clearing cookies, in another browser and in the app. Very odd. I might need to give them a call.

Idbatterim

IAG being owner of aer lingus, really appears to be a bad thing for the country and aer lingus

Noxegon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121836425#Comment_121836425

Not sure that it matters in the grand scheme of things. Ryanair fly far more passengers to/from Ireland than Aer Lingus do.

EchoIndia

Didn't Ryanair offer to buy Aer Lingus at one stage? Wonder how that would have worked out.

kevinandrew

Ryanair owned 25% of Aer Lingus for many years following its hostile take over bid in 2006. The more time went on, the more it appeared to be a vanity project by O’Leary, the board even getting fed up with the time and energy wasted on it with little to no hope of passing EU competition rules.

If it had been granted, Aer Lingus would likely have been absorbed into Ryanair by now and become a distant memory for most. While O’Leary tried to sell people a dream of 50+ wide bodies and a ‘robust’ short haul network, the reality would probably have been much more modest with the brand gradually withdrawn, short haul carved up between Ryanair and competitors via remedy packages as part of the take over conditions, and as Ryanair has zero experience operating long haul or a hub system it likely would have tried ‘long haul low cost’ and history has repeatedly told us this doesn’t work.

The result? Less competition in the short haul market, no guarantee of a consistent or profitable long haul network and the loss of a well respected brand and the jobs that go with it.

A look at the current Ryanair ‘group’ gives you an idea of how things would have played out; a few sub brands that are simply Ryanair in all but name used largely for low costs via local terms and conditions eg. Buzz.

One of the more bizarre remedy attempts by Ryanair was negotiating with Flybe to create ‘Flybe Ireland’ to take on 10+ Aer Lingus A320s and part of its UK + European network which Ryanair would then have to compete with. It seems everyone but the management at Flybe knew Ryanair would have eaten them alive and it was never taken seriously.

Qaanaaq

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121836425#Comment_121836425

Not sure i'd agree. Maybe on overall passenger numbers they are fairly stagnant, but the long haul range of routes has vastly improved under IAG and this matters a lot.

Also IAG has helped EI to focus on improving its profitability which means a more stable Aer Lingus than before. So even though IAG is very conservative in terms of growth and risk, you can't really say that is a bad thing..

Ryanair do the big volume movement of people very well and efficiently, let them look after that segment. No point in EI trying to chase that for the sake of passenger count.

Passenger count is only just one metric to define an airline. Long haul airlines have less passengers by design.

goingnowhere

EI's problem was despite being a well run and profitable it had a big cliff in terms of fleet renewal. EI for decades had bounced between heavy losses and good profits.

IAG promised to invest and I count 6 new A330-300's delivered and a further 8 A321NEOLR's and the XLR's and A320NEO's are flowing in. Thats the big IAG advantage access to options in Toulouse to get aircraft quickly.

EI is still standing, unlike many carriers who have either failed or come close to it in recent years

x567

I can’t help thinking that EI are simply too close, geographically, to BA for IAG to allow EI to expand meaningfully. BA is a far larger airline which is core to the group and has a relatively good and profitable network from London (well, LHR at least). EI can add fairly marginal growth by adding more US cities and offering connections from DUB, but at some point this and any expansion elsewhere will inevitably detract from BA’s core markets. I suspect (particularly given EI’s earlier exit from Oneworld) that IAG’s acquisition of EI was more to keep competitors away from an interesting T/A option than to enable EI to flex its wings (or maybe it was a WW vanity thing)...

It’s arguable that the EI T/A growth we have seen would have probably mostly happened without the IAG ownership. The lack of any meaningful EI growth outside of the US tells a tale; and as I’ve said before, EI will never out-compete FR in their European markets. Hard to see therefore, at least for me, where EI sits, strategically, within the IAG group? Maybe it’s as a captive feeder for BA Eastwards and a blocker to the likes of KLM for US and other connections.

And it’s an old hobby-horse of mine, but it drives me absolutely nuts that EI still, years after the IAG ‘merger’, don't have any meaningful form of Oneworld integration. I really believe that this would drive some additional premium traffic and profit to EI.

jellies

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121833723#Comment_121833723

Pathetic threats from Aer Lingus leadership. Pilots should be rightly pissed off after the way they were treated by the airline during COVID. And I'm not sure why pilots should care if the company gets new aircraft as capital allocation is a matter for the board and shareholders, not pilots.

Captain_Crash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121841224#Comment_121841224

your right, the pilots care if EI get more aircraft or not, makes no odds to them…. and you can bet your ass the cabin crew don’t want anymore NEO’s in the fleet with the current config of them. They’ll be more than happy sticking with the CEO’s for now. So it’s an odd position for IAG to take! The wedge between crew and company seems to be growing 🤷🏻‍♂️

jellies

I work in telecoms and it would be like the CEO saying to me if you don't stop asking to be paid the going rate for your job, we are not going to invest in 5G and AI. I mean what sort of nonsense is this from Señor Gallego....

Qaanaaq

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121841224#Comment_121841224

True that it doesn’t make a difference to pilots about the XLR. But at the day it’s also beneficial for the union and its members to have a successful growing company too. More pilot jobs and future members too.

This is just normal negotiation tactics going on, nothing new here. A deal will eventually get done. It’s the job of the negotiators on each side to play hardball for their representatives. And quite a lot of people I’ve met over the years involved in industrial relations enjoy the battle.

IngazZagni

To be clear this is IAG bosses putting pressure on Aer Lingus management to get a pay deal done or investment will go elsewhere. Its quite a cut throat company were different entities compete for investment from the parent company. Basically competing with each other and keeps them efficient. No growth does affect many staff as it would mean promotions almost coming to a stop.

That said I reckon strike action is getting a bigger possibility with every passing day. It'll be an interesting few weeks.

Tenger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121841936#Comment_121841936

I would disagree that its "normal tactics"

This wasnt just a media soundbite, it was published as part of the IAG financial statement.

jellies

For pilot whether or not AL gets a few extra aircraft is pretty irrelevant. Pilots do not get any shares in IAG so as long as the airline doesn't close down why would they care. Also there are no promotions for pilots apart from a once in a career opportunity to be a captain. They work on a defined pay scale.

The bigger issue for AL pilots is that they can see their pay and conditions falling way behind other sectors and other pilots in the industry. This has far bigger implications for pilots in the longer term. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, maybe strike on the cards over the summer alright.

Jack1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121841661#Comment_121841661

This had quite a few people laughing when it was published, as you said I'm sure many cabin crew were delighted with that threat - They can keep them as far as they are concerned, a horrible crew and pax ex.

Lynne's days are numbered in EI, she may as well work remotely - clearly has no interest in being in Dublin.

Gary walsh 32

Ei cvc heading to Madrid for maintenance tonight so it will probably be checked to see if its worth keeping for another year maybe?

Sexual Chocolate

The a320s have been getting sent to a few places for maintenance recently Manchester, Jordan, Madrid and I'm probably missing one as well.

Are EI engineers only able to carry out certain work in their own hanger ?

sherology

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121849499#Comment_121849499

I think it's 'line maintenance ' in DUB (immediate fixes and overnight time critical checks and swap outs), with larger scale B/C/D type checks maybe being scheduled and pre-booked in at the larger MRO facilities.

I think someone posted a few months back about engine maintenance being done in Madrid. Not sure of it's all engines, engine types, or just a batch (or perception).

Good article:

https://leehamnews.com/2024/03/01/bjorn-s-corner-new-aircraft-technologies-part-48-maintenance-program-for-the-a320-a321/

Locker10a

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121849499#Comment_121849499

On the topic of the a320s and maintenance, the seat back pockets will apparently be refitted where they have been removed.

They tried something, it didn’t work out, at least they’re rectifying it now

Captain_Crash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121850012#Comment_121850012

Yeah it’s started already, think only a few aircraft had them sewn up to begin with! Inflight brochure is returning too!

With regards to aircraft heading to Amman, I heard there was a dispute with Dublin Aerospace and EI ended the relationship but that could all be pie in the sky too!

FR738

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121850012#Comment_121850012

Thank god for that! I’d love to know what idiot decided to implement that idea. I thought O’Leary had joined EI when I first heard of it.

sherology

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121850184#Comment_121850184

To think thought, planning, time, and money was spent wrecking a seat and making it look broken and tatty beggars believe.

Noxegon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121850184#Comment_121850184

I think O'Leary's influence is strong in EI these days.

A few years ago I was surprised when my EI flight to Marseille pulled up at the MP2 budget terminal. In retrospect I probably shouldn't have been.

kevinandrew

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121850068#Comment_121850068

Any other airline would be well on their way to retrofitting their A320 fleet by now, not messing about with seat pockets.

Meanwhile, British Airways has revealed yet another new short haul seat!

Unclear whether this is just for their Club Europe seats up front or throughout the cabin. Must be part of that €7bln investment they’re getting…

Locker10a

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121850484#Comment_121850484

Looks like the seats Delta are getting rid of.

I’ll bet it’s just up the front!