The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

Hmmzis

In regards to antibody testing. WHO are advising against using the quick and cheap fiels tests, citing the abysmal accuracy of them. They do recomend doing antibody testing, only with proper lab equipment that provides high spcificity and sensitivity. As doing so would provide a better understanding of the extent of the spread.

My google feed is now spammed with news sites on the topic, there was a WHO link on their site explaining their reasoning.

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

... WHO are advising ...

I've gone from trusting everything they said early on in this (they're WHO after all), to now doing the opposite

PommieBast

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I've gone from trusting everything they said early on in this (they're WHO after all), to now doing the opposite

I still trust what they say about pharmacology but that is about it. Tedros Adhanom has to go.

Jurgen Klopp

The fact WHO will not allow Taiwan to become a member tells you all you need to know about who influences them

Cordell

PommieBast wrote: »

I still trust what they say about pharmacology but that is about it. Tedros Adhanom has to go.

He shouldn't have been there in the first place, nothing recommends him for the position and his track record so far have been questionable to say the least.
He also appointed Robert Mugabe to some ambassador position for WHO.

Cordell

Blut2 wrote: »

The median figure almost always gives a more accurate picture in statistics. It removes the effect of rare, but extreme, outliers that otherwise play a huge role in the 'mean' figure.

https://www.diffen.com/difference/Mean_vs_Median

This can't be repeated often enough - for anything natural, from the life expectancy to the size of your potatoes, the median is the relevant measure, not the mean/average.

normanoffside

New Dutch Serology study shows the Infection Fatality rate in the various age groups

https://twitter.com/RF_HFC/status/1252210492531183622

normanoffside

Another comparative serology study here suggests the overall Infection Fatality Rate in Denmark to be 0.21% and significantly lower in Scotland and Finland

https://covmodel.org/2020/04/17/sars-cov-2-preliminary-serology-test-reports-from-scotland-denmark-and-finland-give-contradictory-results-on-infection-fatality-ratio/

yosemitesam1

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

Cordell

You don't need statistics, you just need to see the overwhelmed hospitals in Italy. It's not as bad as originally thought statistically speaking, but in real life terms, it's as bad as it always was.

YakerK

Cordell wrote: »

You don't need statistics, you just need to see the overwhelmed hospitals in Italy. It's not as bad as originally thought statistically speaking, but in real life terms, it's as bad as it always was.

Avoiding Italy's outcome is obviously the objective, but the statistics tell us what we need to do to avoid that. If (and it's a big if) they are as some of the previous posts suggests, what we need to do is a lot less then we'd feared.

ShineOn7

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

Because I don't think Ireland's figures are reflecting that. This is not a one size fits all thing

Our R0 is now at 0.7, if we lift restrictions you can sure that'll rise to R0 of 2 or worse

ShineOn7

normanoffside wrote: »

New Dutch Serology study shows the Infection Fatality rate in the various age groups

https://twitter.com/RF_HFC/status/1252210492531183622

Encouraging numbers, but every country seems to be different in this. Things like older demographic etc come into it

Where is Ireland's fatality rate at the moment % wise? Last I read (about ten days ago) it was at 4% which is far, far too high

wakka12

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

Because, it doesnt really matter at all what the antibody tests say if the virus still causes collapse of the healthcare system when uncontrolled, which it has done in numerous examples of countries with highly advanced healthcare infrastructure and continues to do so with recent announcements in Tokyo and Moscow that hospital beds are approaching capacity, just days after an epidemic was uncovered

YakerK

Behind a paywall - but the FTs live feed suggesting that WHO are reporting that only 3% of people have had Covid in worst effected areas. Quite inconsistent with what some of the other reports posted here are saying and quite a lot more negative an outlook if true.

https://www.ft.com/content/853e3929-1810-33f5-9974-ef5286e0f909

ShineOn7

YakerK wrote: »

Behind a paywall - but the FTs live feed suggesting that WHO are reporting that only 3% of people have had Covid in worst effected areas. Quite inconsistent with what some of the other reports posted here are saying and quite a lot more negative an outlook if true.

https://www.ft.com/content/853e3929-1810-33f5-9974-ef5286e0f909

"WHO study indicates"

That's where I lost interest

YakerK

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"WHO study indicates"

That's where I lost interest

You lost interest because it came from WHO? are you sure you were interested in actual science in the first place?

ShineOn7

YakerK wrote: »

You lost interest because it came from WHO? are you sure you were interested in actual science in the first place?

You do realise how badly WHO have fúcked this up right?

And that they're China's mouthpiece?

YakerK

ShineOn7 wrote: »

You do realise how badly WHO have fúcked this up right?

And that they're China's mouthpiece?

Conspiracy theories is a different forum. Besides, even if I accepted that as true, it doesn't impact on the validity of the study.

briany

The Spanish Flu epidemic of Ireland took nearly 12 months to complete its rounds and an estimated infected toll/death toll of 800,000/23,000. And that virus was allowed a good bit more freedom to wreak its havoc without the heavy restrictions we're currently seeing.

So, I don't understand how anyone thinks we're going to achieve herd immunity with the current outbreak in much shorter a time than that, especially as we have a lockdown in place which is intended to stop its spread.

Hmmzis

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

As antibody studies are all showing that it's much less deadly than originally thought, at what point do we just open up the country?

The studies show how frighteningly contagious this thing really is. It basically makes everyone sick at almost the same time. Therefore even with a much lower IFR than previously thought it's still as dangerous as before as it can swamp any healthcare system in short order.

It also explains why even the Koreans are struggling to contain it and almost anywhere else only lockdowns are capable of diminishing the initial blow (with varying success rates).

The silver lining to this would be that even if there is only short term immunity against it, it should be starting to run into itself much sooner than predicted. At that point we'll know how good/bad acquired immunity is and if we will even need a vaccine or if there will be anyone left to give it to (or a virus left to use it against).

Hmmzis

briany wrote: »

The Spanish Flu epidemic of Ireland took nearly 12 months to complete its rounds and an estimated infected toll/death toll of 800,000/23,000. And that virus was allowed a good bit more freedom to wreak its havoc without the heavy restrictions we're currently seeing.

So, I don't understand how anyone thinks we're going to achieve herd immunity with the current outbreak in much shorter a time than that, especially as we have a lockdown in place which is intended to stop its spread.

I'm afraid the Spanish flu has nothing on this pathogen when it comes the raw contagiousness.
One serological study after another is starting to point that way.

IAMAMORON

briany wrote: »

The Spanish Flu epidemic of Ireland took nearly 12 months to complete its rounds and an estimated infected toll/death toll of 800,000/23,000. And that virus was allowed a good bit more freedom to wreak its havoc without the heavy restrictions we're currently seeing.

So, I don't understand how anyone thinks we're going to achieve herd immunity with the current outbreak in much shorter a time than that, especially as we have a lockdown in place which is intended to stop its spread.

I think the country was fundamentally different in 1918.

One of the biggest factors in Spanish flu was the return of Irish soldiers from the frontline. This brought the flu to every corner of the country. To compound this times were very hard and it was rough

I have no issue with stating that we have better treatments and medical facility now also, this is a no brainer.

There are also large arguments around the nutrition values of diet, especially with returning soldiers but also with poorer sections of Irish society. The flu came only 4 years after the Dublin lockout, people were poor and malnourished. My Grandmother told me she often went without shoes, different times and different circumstances.

To answer your suggestion on Herd immunity we missed our chance to implement such a strategy at the start of the outbreak. It is a very risky strategy when attempting to scupper the spread of a virus. But you can only try it when the virus is in its' infancy and early wave. Implementing a herd immunity strategy now would be madness as we already have widespread infections.

Blut2

Some more maths for Ireland here:

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/041fd1-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/

“Between our Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment, those on the Live Register and workers who are benefitting from the wage subsidy scheme, over a million people are receiving some sort of state income support – a situation unparalleled in our nation’s history.

"Over a million" adults, out of our working population of 2.3 million, are now receiving unemployment payments. Thats an unemployment rate of 43%.

Our highest unemployment rate during the last recession was 16%, for reference.

This is pretty horrifying. The economy is going to be completely destroyed if this lockdown goes on much longer.

ShineOn7

The above from Reddit

Zoomable version https://i.redd.it/lfjsg92pjxt41.jpg

Notes:

• The data presented here is heavily dependent on the testing rate and is not necessarily linearly proportional to the actual number of cases we have.
• The "Day" number signifies days since the first confirmed case.
• Take any fitted trends with a pinch of salt. As shown, there are spikes and dips in the daily cases due to both random variation and testing. e.g. Day 40 is when we received results back from a lab in Germany, hence the large spike. This can affect the accuracy of the fitted trend.

But either way, the lockdown is working. Let's keep it up, we're not out of trouble just yet, but it looks promising. Stay home, lads, stay safe

I didn't give an update on Friday as planned as I thought it was better to wait until the promised clearing of the back log occurred. Thats happened now and we are more-or-less in a real-time reporting state from this point on which is fantastic.

There have been a further 77 deaths and 401 new cases reported for a total of 15,652 cases.



The r value is now starting to drop lower and faster than previous, with a rate of 1.026 for today, and a 7 day rate of 1.057. The 5 day rate of 1.045 is better again too. This shows that we are almost at the peak and have effectively avoided a large scale surge in cases.



The next 2 charts show the current situation and a projection out 14 days. The next 4-5 days will tell a lot in terms of dropping below an r value of 1 and will have a big effect on both of these charts in terms of overall cases and daily reported cases.





Lastly, the county by county breakdown. I'm honestly baffled by Cavan. It has the 2nd highest rate per 10k population after Dublin. I'm sure there is some valid explanation for it but it is strange to see it so high.



Province County Total Cases Rate per 10k 2016 Population Population Density
Leinster Dublin 7,666 57 1,347,359 1,459.20
Ulster Cavan 401 53 76,176 39.3
Leinster Westmeath 369 42 88,770 48.2
Leinster Kildare 817 37 222,504 131
Leinster Louth 437 34 128,884 155.4
Leinster Wicklow 444 31 142,425 70.2
Ulster Monaghan 187 30 61,386 47.3
Leinster Meath 513 26 195,044 83.2
Connacht Mayo 332 25 130,507 23.3
Leinster Offaly 190 24 77,961 38.9
Ulster Donegal 383 24 159,192 32.6
Leinster Longford 91 22 40,873 37.4
Leinster Kilkenny 206 21 99,232 47.8
Munster Limerick 401 21 194,899 70.8
Leinster Laois 170 20 84,697 49.3
Munster Cork 1047 19 542,868 72.3
Munster Tipperary 300 19 159,553 37.2
Munster Kerry 268 18 147,707 30.7
Connacht Leitrim 49 15 32,044 20.1
Connacht Roscommon 91 14 64,544 25.3
Leinster Carlow 78 14 56,932 63.4
Munster Clare 160 13 118,817 34.4
Connacht Sligo 78 12 65,535 35.5
Connacht Galway 294 11 258,058 42
Munster Waterford 113 10 116,176 62.7
Leinster Wexford 100 7 149,722 63.2


In summary, it looks like we are finally turning a corner on this but its still not clear at what speed we will get around that corner. My hope is that we would start to see the r value drop below 1 by next weekend but as I mentioned earlier, the next few days will tell a lot given that it'll be the first time we'll be see the case number in almost real-time.

Whatever happens, don't expect the lockdown to be lifted any time soon. To put things into context;

• Ireland identified its first case on Feb 29
• Passed 10 cases on 05-Mar, 5 days later.
• Took another 3 days for the next 10.
• Schools, colleges and childcare facilities instructed to close on 12-Mar
• 27 new cases reported on that day
• Passed 100 cases on 14-Mar, 9 days later.
• Took 2 days for the next 100.
• Passed 1,000 cases on 23-Mar, 9 days later.
• Took another 4 days to break the next 1,000 mark
• Stay at home instruction to the population on 27-Mar
• 302 cases reported that day
• Passed 10,000 cases on 13-Apr, 21 days later.
• Likely to break the next 10,000 before Sunday

While we may start to see the daily case numbers dropping, it'll be a while before they get low enough to be at a safe level.

Finally, the modelling data presented on 16-Apr suggests that there are modifications required to the released data but updated data has not been released outside of this presentation. If it gets released, I'll update everything accordingly.

IAMAMORON

Blut2 wrote: »

Some more maths for Ireland here:

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/041fd1-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/



"Over a million" adults, out of our working population of 2.3 million, are now receiving unemployment payments. Thats an unemployment rate of 43%.

Our highest unemployment rate during the last recession was 16%, for reference.

This is pretty horrifying. The economy is going to be completely destroyed if this lockdown goes on much longer.

Destroyed how?

Are you not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore? Are you going to give up your trips to the hairdresser? Forfeit your annual holiday? Are you going to stop putting petrol in your car?

I reckon it bounces back like a pumped up ball off a wall if I am honest. People need to understand this. There will be a recession but nothing like the credit crunch, the circumstances are contrasting for starters.

Blut2

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Destroyed how?

Are you not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore? Are you going to give up your trips to the hairdresser? Forfeit your annual holiday? Are you going to stop putting petrol in your car?

I reckon it bounces back like a pumped up ball off a wall if I am honest. People need to understand this. There will be a recession but nothing like the credit crunch, the circumstances are contrasting for starters.

Destroyed....financially? Economically? What effect do you think 43% unemployment will have on government finances? Ireland has an adult population of about 3.75 million. The above means we now have “over a million” adults on unemployment support. Plus ~700k adults on the public pension. Plus 350k adults are public servants – gardai, teachers etc. That means there are now significantly less people paying tax from private sector jobs, than there are people being paid directly by the state. How do you think the maths on that are going to work out?

An unemployed person is absolutely not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore etc. There isn't much life to be lived on 200euro a week on the dole.

A huge chunk of these jobs lost are not temporary job losses. How many businesses just aren't going to reopen, like Debenhams? And how many of those businesses that are going to reopen will rehire 100% of their staff?

Thats also assuming businesses are going to be allowed to reopen any time soon. For the 5% of Irish people who work in tourism for example its unlikely the vast majority of them will be in work any time in the medium term.

yosemitesam1

Hmmzis wrote: »

The studies show how frighteningly contagious this thing really is. It basically makes everyone sick at almost the same time. Therefore even with a much lower IFR than previously thought it's still as dangerous as before as it can swamp any healthcare system in short order.

It also explains why even the Koreans are struggling to contain it and almost anywhere else only lockdowns are capable of diminishing the initial blow (with varying success rates).

The silver lining to this would be that even if there is only short term immunity against it, it should be starting to run into itself much sooner than predicted. At that point we'll know how good/bad acquired immunity is and if we will even need a vaccine or if there will be anyone left to give it to (or a virus left to use it against).

The antibody surveys are showing it's travelled more than 10 times further than testing suggests. So hospitalisation rate is a maximum of 10% of what was originally modelled.
The flu has a hospitalisation rate of 1%, the original covid 19 figure was what about 12-15%?
Even allowing for a larger percentage of the population getting infected, with all the extra capacity built in the last few weeks surely we are much closer to being able to cope (if not already) with building herd immunity naturally?

IAMAMORON

Blut2 wrote: »

Destroyed....financially? Economically? What effect do you think 43% unemployment will have on government finances? Ireland has an adult population of about 3.75 million. The above means we now have “over a million” adults on unemployment support. Plus ~700k adults on the public pension. Plus 350k adults are public servants – gardai, teachers etc. That means there are now significantly less people paying tax from private sector jobs, than there are people being paid directly by the state. How do you think the maths on that are going to work out?

An unemployed person is absolutely not going to eat in restaurants or buy new clothes anymore etc. There isn't much life to be lived on 200euro a week on the dole.

A huge chunk of these jobs lost are not temporary job losses. How many businesses just aren't going to reopen, like Debenhams? And how many of those businesses that are going to reopen will rehire 100% of their staff?

Thats also assuming businesses are going to be allowed to reopen any time soon. For the 5% of Irish people who work in tourism for example its unlikely the vast majority of them will be in work any time in the medium term.

Debenhams were always closing. There is also an entire argument still to be had over the future of the high street.

But McDonalds will not be going bust, and people still eat out if they are on the dole.

Tourism will struggle for sure. But it will recover.

This differs to the credit crunch because prior to the property crash we had a debt problem insofar as the banks were propping up all the spending and then turned off the taps suddenly. This shut down has come about for different reasons. Some people will lose jobs, but there will also be a rebound. Companies will also be looking to achieve their targets. It is likely they will use this as an opportunity to shuffle staff, but they will need to employ people in certain areas to achieve desired productivity.

If you really want to have an economic crank I would be looking at the long term survival of the high street or for financial services employees. The computer is winning both these particular games. The banks do not need half the staff anymore. Their long term model is computerisation. This is not virus related however and was always coming down the line. Banks may use the crisis to validate redundancies they had always been planning, other firms too.