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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?
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The Student wrote: »There are a number of factors at play specifically in Dublin which is impacting the rental market. The majority of workers who can work from home have done so. This has led to people relocating outside of Dublin by returning home either to the county or back to their home country. On top of this you have no holiday visitors and you have the RPZ legislation.
So if we look at the above separately we have the following. No matter what people think working from home full time is not going to be widespread. There is no doubt working from home part of the time is definitely going to happen for a large number of workers who want that option.
Secondly you must be physically living in Ireland if you are an employee of an Irish company. This was only raised on RTE this morning regarding different employment rights and income tax, PRSI levels in different countries in Europe.
Thirdly why would a landlord drop rent if they are then locked into the RPZ legislation possibly for years to come?
Whether people accept it or not we still have a housing/rental crisis (albeit the pandemic will have negated it a bit allowing some people to relocate to outside the major cities).
The fact remains that we are in uncharted territory and we now see a possible end to this with the vaccines etc. then and only then will we see what the new normal is going to be.
We may still have a lot of job losses to securing a mortgage will become even harder which may result in more people renting for longer.
For the vast majority of people a mortgage is cheaper than rent
So if you cannot afford a mortgage you will not afford rent
Getting a deposit is the problem
Paying rent even on a room on 205Euro JSA will be a problem0 -
For the vast majority of people a mortgage is cheaper than rent
So if you cannot afford a mortgage you will not afford rent
Getting a deposit is the problem
Paying rent even on a room on 205Euro JSA will be a problem
Having a job to repay a mortgage as well as getting a deposit is the problem. With rentals if you can't afford your rent you can either leave or be evicted.
In the main this does not happen with mortgages due to our reluctance to repossess properties for non payment of mortgages.
If you are on JSA then location is not relevant, you move to where you can afford to rent based on your financial means.0 -
The Student wrote: »Having a job to repay a mortgage as well as getting a deposit is the problem. With rentals if you can't afford your rent you can either leave or be evicted.
In the main this does not happen with mortgages due to our reluctance to repossess properties for non payment of mortgages.
If you are on JSA then location is not relevant, you move to where you can afford to rent based on your financial means.
So you are agreeing with and disagreeing with your previous statement that more people will rent for longer
Why rent when you have used the lockdown to save a deposit and get a mortgage before you lose your job and quit the renting scene0 -
I was chatting to a friend who was trying to get a rent reduction from his landlord recently. The landlord accepted that demand was way down but thought it would bounce back in 2021/22. Therefore he was not willing to reduce the rent due to the rent pressure zone guidelines which he felt would negatively affect him in future years so he compromised by basically giving a free month plus some internal upgrades which effectively gave a 10% reduction for the year.
I wonder are there similar under the table deals like this being done due to the RPZ guidelines which may mask reality from the figures shown in this thread showing almost no reductions.0 -
So you are agreeing with and disagreeing with your previous statement that more people will rent for longer
Why rent when you have used the lockdown to save a deposit and get a mortgage before you lose your job and quit the renting scene
On the contrary getting a mortgage will be even more difficult when we come out of the lockdown. People will be forced to rent for longer simply because they can't secure a mortgage. Do you honestly think the 600k people who availed of the PUP are going to find it easy to get a mortgage if they applied for one?
You will have some who will have been able to save for a deposit but I doubt the majority of renters have saved a deposit to purchase a property. There will be some of that there is no doubt but I don't see it being the majority.
You suggest people should get a mortgage before you lose your job. This is only adding to the issues we have with the housing crisis and by extension with the rental crisis.
This very approach gives banks justification for higher interest rates than the rest of Europe. Is this the only factor leading to higher rates in my opinion no but it is not helping to get the rates down. Secondly, the reluctance to get somebody evicted for non payment of rent and the delay in getting evictions is also adding the problem.0 -
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The Student wrote: »On the contrary getting a mortgage will be even more difficult when we come out of the lockdown. People will be forced to rent for longer simply because they can't secure a mortgage. Do you honestly think the 600k people who availed of the PUP are going to find it easy to get a mortgage if they applied for one?
You will have some who will have been able to save for a deposit but I doubt the majority of renters have saved a deposit to purchase a property. There will be some of that there is no doubt but I don't see it being the majority.
You suggest people should get a mortgage before you lose your job. This is only adding to the issues we have with the housing crisis and by extension with the rental crisis.
This very approach gives banks justification for higher interest rates than the rest of Europe. Is this the only factor leading to higher rates in my opinion no but it is not helping to get the rates down. Secondly, the reluctance to get somebody evicted for non payment of rent and the delay in getting evictions is also adding the problem.
I am not suggesting it ,I am against it
However if you read the other property threads that is what is happening.
People are using the lockdown to save more than ever for deposits ,this is also evident on the other threads
People want a mortgage because its cheaper and they cannot be evicted for non payment as easily
People on PUP are all low earners and never affected the property market according to some on here
Not my opinion but an opinion that was put forward.
They have to rent though and what happens when they cant afford 2 k a month and the apt lies idle0 -
IngazZagni wrote: »I was chatting to a friend who was trying to get a rent reduction from his landlord recently. The landlord accepted that demand was way down but thought it would bounce back in 2021/22. Therefore he was not willing to reduce the rent due to the rent pressure zone guidelines which he felt would negatively affect him in future years so he compromised by basically giving a free month plus some internal upgrades which effectively gave a 10% reduction for the year.
I wonder are there similar under the table deals like this being done due to the RPZ guidelines which may mask reality from the figures shown in this thread showing almost no reductions.
I know of one apt that was on the market for 3 months and 1 months rent was given for free( the last month ) so basically a rent decrease without affecting the headline rate0 -
I know of one apt that was on the market for 3 months and 1 months rent was given for free( the last month ) so basically a rent decrease without affecting the headline rate
I know of one apartment, my best friends cousin knows of another one, I picked 10 off Daft to prove my point etc etc etc. Yet the analysis shows year on year no significant change in rental prices, no where near the 20-25% people are blowing about here. It’s hard to accept the assertions of a few posters here when authoritative analysts give contradictory data. Of course rents have dropped since March, how could they not? Tens of thousands of renters are sitting at home doing work/classes online, but the data shows we are not seeing the drops you would expect or that some on here are claiming is happening.0 -
I think there is a lot of wishing rents to drop and forgetting that drops in rent will be an indicator of the entire financial situation. Before the big crash there were all these people wishing it and saying how they would buy a house cheap. The crash then happened.
This lead to a massive restriction in building and cautious leanding. People who waited aged out of mortgages so will never buy now. That increased the renting population forever more in Ireland.
Current events are doing the same again. Doesn't matter a mortgage is less than rent if you can't get a mortgage. Less places to rent as a result of permanent renters increase as a percentage of our population.
I have not had to drop my rent for anyone. I have had old tenants asking if I have anywhere free as they can't find anywhere. I see more ads but they contacted me all the same. I suspect they owe rent and are planning to stiff the landlord. Only thing that makes sense.0 -
https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/Ray Palmer wrote: »I think there is a lot of wishing rents to drop and forgetting that drops in rent will be an indicator of the entire financial situation. Before the big crash there were all these people wishing it and saying how they would buy a house cheap. The crash then happened.
This lead to a massive restriction in building and cautious leanding. People who waited aged out of mortgages so will never buy now. That increased the renting population forever more in Ireland.
Current events are doing the same again. Doesn't matter a mortgage is less than rent if you can't get a mortgage. Less places to rent as a result of permanent renters increase as a percentage of our population.
I have not had to drop my rent for anyone. I have had old tenants asking if I have anywhere free as they can't find anywhere. I see more ads but they contacted me all the same. I suspect they owe rent and are planning to stiff the landlord. Only thing that makes sense.
Rents are dropping in Dublin0 -
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I know of one apartment, my best friends cousin knows of another one, I picked 10 off Daft to prove my point etc etc etc. Yet the analysis shows year on year no significant change in rental prices, no where near the 20-25% people are blowing about here. It’s hard to accept the assertions of a few posters here when authoritative analysts give contradictory data. Of course rents have dropped since March, how could they not? Tens of thousands of renters are sitting at home doing work/classes online, but the data shows we are not seeing the drops you would expect or that some on here are claiming is happening.
https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/0 -
Ray Palmer wrote: »I think there is a lot of wishing rents to drop and forgetting that drops in rent will be an indicator of the entire financial situation. Before the big crash there were all these people wishing it and saying how they would buy a house cheap. The crash then happened.
This lead to a massive restriction in building and cautious leanding. People who waited aged out of mortgages so will never buy now. That increased the renting population forever more in Ireland.
Current events are doing the same again. Doesn't matter a mortgage is less than rent if you can't get a mortgage. Less places to rent as a result of permanent renters increase as a percentage of our population.
I have not had to drop my rent for anyone. I have had old tenants asking if I have anywhere free as they can't find anywhere. I see more ads but they contacted me all the same. I suspect they owe rent and are planning to stiff the landlord. Only thing that makes sense.
Ads on Daft up substantially since January0 -
Ads on Daft up substantially since January
Daft does not tell a full picture as it is only advertisements they count. The point is long term effects and numbers is what I am talking about. All the civil servants working from home will return to the offices. I know many who gave up their rentals to move "home" during the current period. They will have to return to Dublin which looks likely to be mid 2021.
The same will apply for many office jobs. Then all the axillary jobs come back and the pressure on rental property will return. Work form home will be permanent for some but not the majority.
The future means more will need to rent permanently thus we will need more rentals forever more. Homeownship rates in Ireland flopped significantly in the last 20 years and will drop further.
You can wish it means cheaper rent but in the long term it looks like rising rents and housing shortages. Pointing to rent drops now is like watch the sea go out before tsunami and saying no wave is coming.0 -
Ads on Daft up substantially since January
Yes, and yet rents haven’t fallen substantially.
And no matter how many times you put the bl.ocks graph up, it still doesn’t explain why Daft, having the same data, contradict your opinion of average 20-25% falls in Dublin. Year on year, the average is down .8%, big difference.0 -
The Student wrote: »There are a number of factors at play specifically in Dublin which is impacting the rental market. The majority of workers who can work from home have done so. This has led to people relocating outside of Dublin by returning home either to the county or back to their home country. On top of this you have no holiday visitors and you have the RPZ legislation.
So if we look at the above separately we have the following. No matter what people think working from home full time is not going to be widespread. There is no doubt working from home part of the time is definitely going to happen for a large number of workers who want that option.
Secondly you must be physically living in Ireland if you are an employee of an Irish company. This was only raised on RTE this morning regarding different employment rights and income tax, PRSI levels in different countries in Europe.
Thirdly why would a landlord drop rent if they are then locked into the RPZ legislation possibly for years to come?
Whether people accept it or not we still have a housing/rental crisis (albeit the pandemic will have negated it a bit allowing some people to relocate to outside the major cities).
The fact remains that we are in uncharted territory and we now see a possible end to this with the vaccines etc. then and only then will we see what the new normal is going to be.
We may still have a lot of job losses to securing a mortgage will become even harder which may result in more people renting for longer.
Exactly, the housing crisis is by far the biggest political issue on the table and by "housing crisis" it means affordability crisis.
Why are people crying about a shortage of properties? The reason is because people and analysts expect that more supply will result in lower prices which is key to ending the crisis.
For the exact reason that we are in a housing crisis (high cost of housing), we have objectively obscene average costs for rentals (1600 for a 1 bedroom apartment!). Until the issue of affordability is addressed to a significant extent, the housing crisis will continue to exist.
As such, so long as the housing crisis exists, political promises to reduce the cost of housing are going to get votes and we do not live in a freely functioning housing market (quite the opposite in fact, the State is far too involved for it to be free) so don't be surprised to see political efforts to try to poke the rental market balloon.0 -
I am not suggesting it ,I am against it
However if you read the other property threads that is what is happening.
People are using the lockdown to save more than ever for deposits ,this is also evident on the other threads
People want a mortgage because its cheaper and they cannot be evicted for non payment as easily
People on PUP are all low earners and never affected the property market according to some on here
Not my opinion but an opinion that was put forward.
They have to rent though and what happens when they cant afford 2 k a month and the apt lies idle
A few of your points are the crux of the matter which is impacting the whole property sector in Ireland.
Difficulty in respossessions
Low earners still somewhere to live
State subsidy's to house low earners apartments will lie idle because of the RPZ0 -
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AssetBacked2 wrote: »Exactly, the housing crisis is by far the biggest political issue on the table and by "housing crisis" it means affordability crisis.
Why are people crying about a shortage of properties? The reason is because people and analysts expect that more supply will result in lower prices which is key to ending the crisis.
For the exact reason that we are in a housing crisis (high cost of housing), we have objectively obscene average costs for rentals (1600 for a 1 bedroom apartment!). Until the issue of affordability is addressed to a significant extent, the housing crisis will continue to exist.
As such, so long as the housing crisis exists, political promises to reduce the cost of housing are going to get votes and we do not live in a freely functioning housing market (quite the opposite in fact, the State is far too involved for it to be free) so don't be surprised to see political efforts to try to poke the rental market balloon.
More supply will reduce rents that is the basic premise of economics as supply increase price drops. The cost of housing is a function of the cost of the inputs. We want environmentally friendly low emission housing, we want everybody to have a bedroom for each child so they don't have to share. We want, we want, we want, but we don't want to pay for them.
You hit the nail on the head when you say we are not living in a freely functioning housing market. if we were then additional supply would come on board to earn some of "so called" easy money people seem to think landlords earn.
What so many people seem to forget is who benefits the most from the current set up. There are three main "winners" in this scenario
Firstly we have the Govt who don't have the hassle of housing tenants and dealing with non payment issues yet take nearly 50% of the rent (after deductions for expenses).
Secondly we have the corporate landlords who pay little or no tax on income.
Thirdly we have the council tenants who get to live in some areas where they pay a fraction of the rent that private tenants pay to live in exactly the same area.
So yes you are right we don't have a functioning housing market because we don't want to take and act on the hard decisions.
if you don't pay your mortgage you should be evicted,
if you don't pay your rent you should be evicted,
if you are a bad landlord you should be fined,
if you can't afford to live somewhere then you live where you can afford
But the above will never happen because the Govt will pander to those who will vote for them or if anyone mentions any of the above then we have the political correctness (PC) brigade on saying you are racist, facist, anti socialist etc.0 -
Ray Palmer wrote: »Daft does not tell a full picture as it is only advertisements they count. The point is long term effects and numbers is what I am talking about. All the civil servants working from home will return to the offices. I know many who gave up their rentals to move "home" during the current period. They will have to return to Dublin which looks likely to be mid 2021.
The same will apply for many office jobs. Then all the axillary jobs come back and the pressure on rental property will return. Work form home will be permanent for some but not the majority.
Tg.
So they will have plenty of apartments by mid 2021
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/st-johns-road-west-kilmainham-dublin-3152085/
This above only example other big development in Cherrywood with 5000 apartments all for rent which should be ready by April next year. There is few other developments with apartments spread all over the city. So supply is going to improve a lot next year so this is going to reflect on price.0 -
Ray Palmer wrote: »I think there is a lot of wishing rents to drop and forgetting that drops in rent will be an indicator of the entire financial situation..
I think the drops we are seeing being advertised now are a clear indication of the situation, not just financial. If many can WFH even a number of days a week that will cause some of that cohort to decide to move closer to home. This will have an effect of reducing demand which will feed through into rents in some way shape or form.0 -
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The thing that stands out to me is even if you accept the figures, the volume of increased supply is in real terms still small. We're talking about few hundred extra houses and a couple thousand extra apartments. The 2016 census had less than 60% of households in Dublin being owner occupied, and 326 thousand households being privately rented across the country. The change in supply of rented accommodation relatively to the size of the market as opposed to the YoY change is closer to 1-2%. Which is pretty much why you're seeing stagnant or only slight drops in price.
ref: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/tr/
If the rental market could have been sorted out by dumping an extra 3 thousand properties, it would have been done by central government. The reality is that we it would take tens of thousands of additional properties to trigger the type of rent drops some folks here are talking about.0 -
I think the drops we are seeing being advertised now are a clear indication of the situation, not just financial. If many can WFH even a number of days a week that will cause some of that cohort to decide to move closer to home. This will have an effect of reducing demand which will feed through into rents in some way shape or form.
Did anyone hear that HR expert on radio today saying staff who are living abroad and WFH will have to come back here? Something to do with company taxes here and employment legislation in other countries. If thousands of people have to return to Ireland to WFH, that will affect the demand for rentals.0 -
mrslancaster wrote: »Did anyone hear that HR expert on radio today saying staff who are living abroad and WFH will have to come back here? Something to do with company taxes here and employment legislation in other countries. If thousands of people have to return to Ireland to WFH, that will affect the demand for rentals.
Most HR people I've worked with knew feck all about feck all. I don't expect the intricacies of tax law to be a particular specialty of theirs.0 -
mrslancaster wrote: »Did anyone hear that HR expert on radio today saying staff who are living abroad and WFH will have to come back here? Something to do with company taxes here and employment legislation in other countries. If thousands of people have to return to Ireland to WFH, that will affect the demand for rentals.
Yeah that’s pretty straight forward stuff. If a company is giving a contract in Ireland and paying Irish tax for it, while the employee effectively lives in another country, it is making a complete joke of the taxation laws in that other country and is basically illegal employment there.
No decent company will do that because as soon as it gets noticed they’re going to court for tax fraud.0 -
mrslancaster wrote: »Did anyone hear that HR expert on radio today saying staff who are living abroad and WFH will have to come back here? Something to do with company taxes here and employment legislation in other countries. If thousands of people have to return to Ireland to WFH, that will affect the demand for rentals.
Yes there is some merit in that definitely, but those people would have been here pre Covid. Also some of those might come back and decide to live outside Dublin (why not if you can get same wages and pay far less for rent).0 -
mrslancaster wrote: »Did anyone hear that HR expert on radio today saying staff who are living abroad and WFH will have to come back here? Something to do with company taxes here and employment legislation in other countries. If thousands of people have to return to Ireland to WFH, that will affect the demand for rentals.
This was highlighted a couple of months ago when Google informed all staff who left the country they were working in that they had to return before year end.
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674%3fmode=amp0 -
If many can WFH even a number of days a week that will cause some of that cohort to decide to move closer to home. This will have an effect of reducing demand which will feed through into rents in some way shape or form.
It might move demand away from areas were jobs are concentrated yes, but the overall demand will remain the same (it might make city centers cheaper and suburbs with a very nice environnement more expensive).
Also another aspect is that if people are working from home most of the week they will want more space and possibly a room dedicated to WFH (sharing a small apartment is fine when everyone is at work during the day, but not as fun when everyone is there 24/7). This probably means the average renter will want more space than they used to, which pressures demand if the total available rental space remains constant. That might be alleviated medium to long term with office buildings which are not required anymore and turned into residential ones though.0 -
That might be alleviated medium to long term with office buildings which are not required anymore and turned into residential ones though.
This has been happening in London somewhat but I have yet to see it take off in Dublin. You would have to wonder what will happen with all the Georgian piles in the CC which are going to be badly affected by the lessening of demand. I took a walk around parts of the CC recently and it was frightening to see how many vacancies there were there.0 -
Yes, and yet rents haven’t fallen substantially.
And no matter how many times you put the bl.ocks graph up, it still doesn’t explain why Daft, having the same data, contradict your opinion of average 20-25% falls in Dublin. Year on year, the average is down .8%, big difference.
Despite what DAFT and Ronan Lyons says rents are down substantially this year
They have skin in the game.
Why did they not do their usual amount of reports this year
Dozens of examples on The Property pin0 -
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Despite what DAFT and Ronan Lyons says rents are down substantially this year
They have skin in the game.
Why did they not do their usual amount of reports this year
Dozens of examples on The Property pin
So are you saying an Assistant Professor of Economics, and the foremost authority on the housing market, is wrong and/or is massaging the data for his own benefit? That would be quite an accusation.
Do you not think other economists or even his own students would tear his analysis apart if it was as inaccurate as you claim it is?
Sorry Brisan, I’ll stick with the experts and ignore the amateurs. Daft have access to a lot more information and economic/statistical expertise than those who keep putting up the same diagram and refer to “dozens of examples on property pin” or “I know one apartment”.0
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