Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

The Student · 17-11-2020 2:08pm

km991148 wrote: »

It might not make sense to you, but that's how I see it.

I would also challenge some of the assumptions you made there as well (either on the basis that they might not hold true or that people might not care as much as you think).

While I am all in favour of a healthy discussion simply saying something does not hold true with out giving some sort of justification for your view would help.

Obviously people care about the accuracy of the detail otherwise data could just be randomly chosen.

brisan · 17-11-2020 2:15pm

The Student wrote: »

it still does not make sense. Putting up figs that are not being achieved would become common knowledge (due to the interest in the rental market as I am sure renters talk to each others about what they are paying in rent).

Daft like other businesses trade on their reputation so if the details were incorrect then this would damage their business.

They still get the fee per ad irrespective of the accuracy of the rental asking price. Logic would suggest a realistic price would encourage more business as it would result in more ads placed on Daft.

Daft don't want ads to be there long term otherwise landlords would not use them if they thought there was an alternative site to advertise their rental property that would get their property rented quicker.

Since when has the Dublin rental market been logical
Not as long as I have ben observing or involved in it
REITs leaving apartments empty for months because dropping their headline rent affects their balance sheet

km991148 · 17-11-2020 2:18pm

The Student wrote: »

While I am all in favour of a healthy discussion simply saying something does not hold true with out giving some sort of justification for your view would help.

Obviously people care about the accuracy of the detail otherwise data could just be randomly chosen.

I gave my opinion and the reasons why I think that.

You countered and want some hard evidence to prove you wrong, while also holding tightly to a bunch of assumptions. I think if you do care about healthy discussion, you need to look at some of those assumptions and determine whether or not they hold true. You say obviously, but really its not.

This isn't an argument or something, you canvassed opinion on a topic and I kindly took the time to respond. If you don't agree, fine

The Student · 17-11-2020 2:25pm

brisan wrote: »

Since when has the Dublin rental market been logical
Not as long as I have ben observing or involved in it
REITs leaving apartments empty for months because dropping their headline rent affects their balance sheet

The introduction of the RPZ legislation is one of the reasons why apartments are being left empty. Why get caught in a low rent for years. Nobody knows what the future demand for these properties but is highly unlikely that the current working situation will continue long term. So REITS can bide their time.

Leaving apartments empty does not impact on their balance sheet (unless they need to revalue the properties) rather it impacts on their P&L.

REITS in the main are self financing so are not losing money rather they are not making it. Also with negative interest rates they are not paying to have funds on deposit.

brisan · 17-11-2020 2:37pm

The Student wrote: »

The introduction of the RPZ legislation is one of the reasons why apartments are being left empty. Why get caught in a low rent for years. Nobody knows what the future demand for these properties but is highly unlikely that the current working situation will continue long term. So REITS can bide their time.

Leaving apartments empty does not impact on their balance sheet (unless they need to revalue the properties) rather it impacts on their P&L.

REITS in the main are self financing so are not losing money rather they are not making it. Also with negative interest rates they are not paying to have funds on deposit.

Part of the reason ,not the full reason
For small landlords maybe ,bigger ones not solely the case
Renting the apartment out at a lower rate affects the yield which affect the value on the balance sheet
One apt rented at 3 k means the notional yield on them all is 3k
All apts rented at 2.5 k means more cash coming in but the value of the investment has dropped
You cannot apply normal economic or accountancy thinking to the Dublin rental market
it is not a logical market

The Student · 17-11-2020 2:53pm

brisan wrote: »

Part of the reason ,not the full reason
For small landlords maybe ,bigger ones not solely the case
Renting the apartment out at a lower rate affects the yield which affect the value on the balance sheet
One apt rented at 3 k means the notional yield on them all is 3k
All apts rented at 2.5 k means more cash coming in but the value of the investment has dropped
You cannot apply normal economic or accountancy thinking to the Dublin rental market
it is not a logical market

Yield does not affect the value on the balance sheet. It affects profit in the P&L. The REITS will have the book/carrying value of the asset in the balance sheet. The value of the asset has not "dropped". The value of the asset is what it would for in the open market. The value of properties for purchase has not dropped significantly that I have heard of.

The income generation of the asset may drop if rents are lowered but this short term decision could have long reaching consequences if the RPZ legislation remains.

It would appear that the REITS are happy to wait out the pandemic expecting that they will get the rents they are looking for. Why risk a short term gain for a long term loss in accepting lower rents?

This would appear to be their business strategy. Economics does not come into it with individual suppliers unless the majority of suppliers are acting in a concerted fashion (which is highly unlikely considering 70% of the rental market is supplied by individual landlords).

brisan · 17-11-2020 3:00pm

The Student wrote: »

Yield does not affect the value on the balance sheet. It affects profit in the P&L. The REITS will have the book/carrying value of the asset in the balance sheet. The value of the asset has not "dropped". The value of the asset is what it would for in the open market. The value of properties for purchase has not dropped significantly that I have heard of.

The income generation of the asset may drop if rents are lowered but this short term decision could have long reaching consequences if the RPZ legislation remains.

It would appear that the REITS are happy to wait out the pandemic expecting that they will get the rents they are looking for. Why risk a short term gain for a long term loss in accepting lower rents?

This would appear to be their business strategy. Economics does not come into it with individual suppliers unless the majority of suppliers are acting in a concerted fashion (which is highly unlikely considering 70% of the rental market is supplied by individual landlords).

You are making the mistake of applying logic to the market
It does not work the way you say it does
They left apartments idle for months before covid

Manion · 17-11-2020 3:08pm

Healthy skepticism is one thing but simply disbelieving expert opinion unquestionably just because it's from an expert or doesn't match in with your highly specific experience isn't any more right then blindly believing. I personally don't know anyone on social housing or who has lost their job due to Covid, would it be right of me to dismiss reports into the housing crisis or unemployment simply based what I've seen personally.

At this point the thread is not even a discussion about the housing market, it's a basic primer on statistical analysis. 1+1 = 2, you don't just get to say I recon 1+1 = a 25% decrease in rental costs YoY.

brisan · 17-11-2020 3:38pm

Manion wrote: »

Healthy skepticism is one thing but simply disbelieving expert opinion unquestionably just because it's from an expert or doesn't match in with your highly specific experience isn't any more right then blindly believing. I personally don't know anyone on social housing or who has lost their job due to Covid, would it be right of me to dismiss reports into the housing crisis or unemployment simply based what I've seen personally.

At this point the thread is not even a discussion about the housing market, it's a basic primer on statistical analysis. 1+1 = 2, you don't just get to say I recon 1+1 = a 25% decrease in rental costs YoY.

Lies ,damn lies and statistics
That phrase was coined for a reason

Manion · 17-11-2020 3:55pm

I normally get all my facts from the guys down the pub but with level 5 lockdown I've had to settle for reports from esteemed economists. Cliché are all well and good but when it comes to your own money I'm not sure I'd be discounted hard data.

Look, I remember when supposedly independent economists spoke about soft landing predictions even when it was blindingly obvious that wasn't going to happen. If Ronan lyons was making predictions, I'd have a higher bar for believing him, but this is descriptive analysis not predictive analysis.

Ray Palmer · 17-11-2020 4:38pm

brisan wrote: »

Lies ,damn lies and statistics
That phrase was coined for a reason

Yes it was and what it illustrates is people don't understand statistics so they can be used to lie to the ignorant. It is now used by the ignorant to dismiss facts without ever trying to understand what the information means nor look at facts.

Refute the information or explain how it is wrong. The expression doesn't stand on its own as universally true but now bolsters weak arguments. Which is what the expression was meant to point out in the first place.

"Deny,deny,deny" is also a well known expression for a reason.

1123heavy · 17-11-2020 5:16pm

brisan wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/drumcondra/grace-park-gardens-drumcondra-dublin-2095945/
Not sure if the area interests you but brand new apts in a period house

I viewed this property today, it simply wasn't what was in the pics whatsoever, not even a size difference but actually different apartments. They said they had 5 apartments, 4 of which are "long gone" and there was one left. It was ground floor, as you went in you faced a wall, to your left was an ensuite bedroom and to the right was a kitchen with a sofa stuck in it, both roughly 12 metres sqaured.

I wish they'd be upfront about what we're viewing rather than wasting everybody's time.

Anyhow I rest my case, maybe in some office they've analysed apartment rents have reduced but on the ground it is not the case.

jr1942 · 17-11-2020 8:52pm

The only thing new is exchange in the market, a bit higher exchange rate than normal, that can affect the prices a little bit, but not by much and not in the long run for sure.

Properties becoming available on the market are mainly the type of places which shouldn't be allowed to be rented out in the first place considering the standard they offer, so I am assuming the exchange is there mainly from the people who are completely fed up with this and moving elsewhere can't really mean it can get much worse than it is.

When you are getting >10000 euros per year in rent and can't be bothered investing into a kitchen hood/extractors which costs around 30 euros when re-advertising, tells a lot about the landlords that are advertising their properties atm. Small thing, but this is the case with large number of ads atm.

That said, it's just becoming more and more obvious by day that remaining in this country is a bad idea - because the politics is obvious, if you don't want it, if you don't want to work just to pay rent in sub standard accommodation and bills - there is a fool somewhere out there, no matter how far, who will.

1123heavy · 17-11-2020 11:22pm

That said, it's just becoming more and more obvious by day that remaining in this country is a bad idea - because the politics is obvious, if you don't want it, if you don't want to work just to pay rent in sub standard accommodation and bills - there is a fool somewhere out there, no matter how far, who will.

This. I am in a position where I have to be in Dublin due to work reasons, I also want to live here because it is 'home'. The more this nonsense goes on the more I feel I may have no option but to up sticks and move abroad.

https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/1117/1178817-ashtown-dublin-development/

Thoughts?

Manion · 18-11-2020 12:30am

Arra be jaysis if it isn't "Ireland, is wee little kip of a country" people. It's funny how the people who actually leave never seem to talk this way and the people who talk this way never seem to leave. Never short of a bad word to say for our beloved country they imagine there is some utopia out there waiting for them, if only they could get a flight.

1123heavy wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/1117/1178817-ashtown-dublin-development/

Thoughts?

The number of apartments is nearly the same as the additional supply of availability of apartments this year. Proof if proof was needed that an extra 1000 apartments isn't going to collapse the property market.

1123heavy · 18-11-2020 12:39am

Manion wrote: »

Arra be jaysis if it isn't "Ireland, is wee little kip of a country" people. It's funny how the people who actually leave never seem to talk this way and the people who talk this way never seem to leave. Never short of a bad word to say for our beloved country they imagine there is some utopia out there waiting for them, if only they could get a flight.

The number of apartments is nearly the same as the additional supply of availability of apartments this year. Proof if proof was needed that an extra 1000 apartments isn't going to collapse the property market.

Not at all, I stated clearly it is 'home' and I very much want to live here and make my future here. I did not say nor do I believe it's a kip, in fact it is beautiful when you compare it to areas of London, Paris or Berlin for example. Rent wise those aren't cheap but they are world capitals, Dublin has ended up with Hong Kong style rent somehow and it is not a world capital. I love it, but let's call a spade a spade.

I feel as though I am actively discouraged from my future here though with the setup of things.

Manion · 18-11-2020 1:06am

That wasn't really addressed at you but more the general vibe coming off people. It is very challenging to find a place to live in Dublin, it's never been easy in my adult life, especially as a single person. So you have my sympathy in that regard. It can feel very hard to feel like you're making progress in live and living for anything more than to work to pay rent to exist. I remember, like you, turning up to rent what was advertised as a studio apartment to discover it was a room in someone's house. A friend has spent the last 2 years living in someone's somera at the end of their garden like a Gnome.

jr1942 · 18-11-2020 10:06am

Manion wrote: »

Arra be jaysis if it isn't "Ireland, is wee little kip of a country" people. It's funny how the people who actually leave never seem to talk this way and the people who talk this way never seem to leave. Never short of a bad word to say for our beloved country they imagine there is some utopia out there waiting for them, if only they could get a flight.

It is the politics of Europe in general so I partially agree, doesn't change the fact it is very bad politics. It's a sad approach to have. It's a sad situation to being forced to heavily consider leaving that's all, of course it's not easy to leave, but a lot of people do because of this bad politics, and then if you read my post again, it's a kind of situation where if you do leave, how much worse can it be than it is here, I really really doubt it can be worse, and if its the same at least I get some nice weather, including leaving towards Baltic countries! And that is degrading multiple other aspects of society then. But nmind.
Its good news whoever does leave doesn't talk this way, it must have worked out for them, so even more eager to do so.

JimmyVik · 18-11-2020 12:01pm

jr1942 wrote: »

It is the politics of Europe in general so I partially agree, doesn't change the fact it is very bad politics. It's a sad approach to have. It's a sad situation to being forced to heavily consider leaving that's all, of course it's not easy to leave, but a lot of people do because of this bad politics, and then if you read my post again, it's a kind of situation where if you do leave, how much worse can it be than it is here, I really really doubt it can be worse, and if its the same at least I get some nice weather, including leaving towards Baltic countries! And that is degrading multiple other aspects of society then. But nmind.
Its good news whoever does leave doesn't talk this way, it must have worked out for them, so even more eager to do so.

You are Irish.
We all leave at some point. Its in our blood.
Most come back when they get older though. Some dont. Mostly those who have settled down with people from abroad.

Ray Palmer · 18-11-2020 12:11pm

jr1942 wrote: »

The only thing new is exchange in the market, a bit higher exchange rate than normal, that can affect the prices a little bit, but not by much and not in the long run for sure.

Properties becoming available on the market are mainly the type of places which shouldn't be allowed to be rented out in the first place considering the standard they offer, so I am assuming the exchange is there mainly from the people who are completely fed up with this and moving elsewhere can't really mean it can get much worse than it is.

When you are getting >10000 euros per year in rent and can't be bothered investing into a kitchen hood/extractors which costs around 30 euros when re-advertising, tells a lot about the landlords that are advertising their properties atm. Small thing, but this is the case with large number of ads atm.

That said, it's just becoming more and more obvious by day that remaining in this country is a bad idea - because the politics is obvious, if you don't want it, if you don't want to work just to pay rent in sub standard accommodation and bills - there is a fool somewhere out there, no matter how far, who will.

This doesn't make any sense to me at all. What makes property unsuitable to rent in your eyes? There is a list of requirements that rental property have to adhere to and if those are met it is suitable. Very very few properties that people live in would be unsuitable.

If you expect rental property to be a level above residential property stock in the country then you will have to pay more for rent. Increase the costs of renting property means the consumer pays.

Obviously you have a particular issue with a property and a landlord about an extractor fan.

If you think this country is massively flawed you don't understand the rental situation here and abroad. Italy require at least 4 months rent up front, Germany you have to paint the place as you leave and provide your own kitchen etc...most other countries when you stop paying rent you get kicked out and still owe the rent you haven't paid.

The social protections for people here are particularly good but over stretched. A couple who never worked can have a baby here split up and both get 2 bed place each paid for the state while getting state payments and medical cards. Go to the USA and try that.

People really don't understand how good it is in this country. I have never seen a family sleeping on the streets here but have seen it elsewhere.

Manion · 18-11-2020 12:39pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

If you think this country is massively flawed you don't understand the rental situation here and abroad. Italy require at least 4 months rent up front, Germany you have to paint the place as you leave and provide your own kitchen etc...most other countries when you stop paying rent you get kicked out and still owe the rent you haven't paid.

I remember friends telling me about the kitchen thing, it seems so wasteful. There are actual companies that will help you move the kitchen as you move. Heavy rent controls as well in some cities which are all great if you have a place but trying if you're looking for one can be extremely limiting. All these comments about moving abroad to find a better quality of life from people, they're incredibly disingenuous. The minute you start naming specific cities the issues start piling up. That not to dismiss the issue we have in Ireland but it's just not constructive to think their is a utopia over the rainbow.

jr1942 · 18-11-2020 1:08pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

If you think this country is massively flawed you don't understand the rental situation here and abroad. Italy require at least 4 months rent up front, Germany you have to paint the place as you leave and provide your own kitchen etc...most other countries when you stop paying rent you get kicked out and still owe the rent you haven't paid.

You have just confirmed what I was saying with pointing this out - hope you understand how contradictory you are with your post.

Plus with what you have said, there are standards there, there aren't ANY here, but you obviously don't seem to understand that and have been well trained not to understand it. So really no point in discussing. Over and out

Smouse156 · 18-11-2020 1:11pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

This doesn't make any sense to me at all. What makes property unsuitable to rent in your eyes? There is a list of requirements that rental property have to adhere to and if those are met it is suitable. Very very few properties that people live in would be unsuitable.

If you expect rental property to be a level above residential property stock in the country then you will have to pay more for rent. Increase the costs of renting property means the consumer pays.

Obviously you have a particular issue with a property and a landlord about an extractor fan.

If you think this country is massively flawed you don't understand the rental situation here and abroad. Italy require at least 4 months rent up front, Germany you have to paint the place as you leave and provide your own kitchen etc...most other countries when you stop paying rent you get kicked out and still owe the rent you haven't paid.

The social protections for people here are particularly good but over stretched. A couple who never worked can have a baby here split up and both get 2 bed place each paid for the state while getting state payments and medical cards. Go to the USA and try that.

People really don't understand how good it is in this country. I have never seen a family sleeping on the streets here but have seen it elsewhere.

It’s definitely really good here if you are a social scumbag! Drug dealer, probably making a fortune gets a brand new apartment in Dundrum that the state pays €2000-€3000 a month for while paying no tax on his dealing. He couldn’t be happier!

Meanwhile PAYE taxpayers like myself look like clowns paying 52% on a lot of my income to fund this dealer

Ray Palmer · 18-11-2020 1:56pm

jr1942 wrote: »

You have just confirmed what I was saying with pointing this out - hope you understand how contradictory you are with your post.

Plus with what you have said, there are standards there, there aren't ANY here, but you obviously don't seem to understand that and have been well trained not to understand it. So really no point in discussing. Over and out

I don't know what you are trying to say again. This isn't a contest but a discussion. You are factually wrong about there being no standards here and failed to actually say what should not be rented. I am a well experienced landlord fully aware of regulations. Not sure what way I have been "trained" to not understand something that is actual fact that you believe don't exist. It is all in the sticky posts on the forum.

Not sure what you think is contradictory but you could let me know. We as a nation provide housing for all sorts of people from the disabled to the poor and I think that is right. If you want to move to a country that does not feel free but don't ever fall on hard times.

Ray Palmer · 18-11-2020 2:52pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

It’s definitely really good here if you are a social scumbag! Drug dealer, probably making a fortune gets a brand new apartment in Dundrum that the state pays €2000-€3000 a month for while paying no tax on his dealing. He couldn’t be happier!

Meanwhile PAYE taxpayers like myself look like clowns paying 52% on a lot of my income to fund this dealer

You should really go to the police about that drug dealer.

I assure you that your payment of taxes isn't what makes you look like a clown

Manion · 18-11-2020 4:36pm

I'm not sure why everyone doesn't become a drug dealer, sounds like a great life.

Smouse156 · 18-11-2020 10:58pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

You should really go to the police about that drug dealer.

I assure you that your payment of taxes isn't what makes you look like a clown

Just an unfortunate victim then

Smouse156 · 18-11-2020 11:02pm

Manion wrote: »

I'm not sure why everyone doesn't become a drug dealer, sounds like a great life.

Most people have morals

Claw Hammer · 19-11-2020 12:12pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

You should really go to the police about that drug dealer.

I assure you that your payment of taxes isn't what makes you look like a clown

What makes him look like a clown then?

Ray Palmer · 19-11-2020 12:23pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Just an unfortunate victim then

No you are making yourself out to be a victim by exaggerating. Nobody is getting €3k rent paid because the is double the rate +
https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/supplementary_welfare_schemes/historic_rent_supplement_limits.html#
You also exagerate an misunderstanding tax payments. You don't actually pay 52% on income and while part of the calculation you are exaggerating.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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