Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

AssetBacked2 · 15-11-2020 10:20pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Apparently rent is down 0.8% in Dublin on the same period last year. And rising in other cities.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/housing-crisis-ireland-rents-5260710-Nov2020/%3famp=1

Anecdotal but reflected in that link of Daft rentals advertised in Dublin, supply nearly doubled since the first lockdown and rents for apartments down close to 20%, heading towards 25% by Paddy's Day. Prices of houses for rent staying strong. That all supposes some form of heavy restrictions lasts to Paddy's Day which I think is reasonable. Beyond that hopefully we'll start to see covid hype die down but honestly who knows how long it will take for governments to move on from needing so many restrictions. They don't seem to be in a hurry to ease them significantly in Ireland so we'll see.

Despite the political stakes involved in forcing rents to drop significantly (or else SF will get a majority in a few years), FFG might have a blessing in disguise with covid inspired lockdowns as they are crashing the rental market while landlords votes won't be lost as apparently covid was the reason for the measures which are leading to rents plummeting. Pure, stupid luck for FFG which might save them in the next election.

Dav010 · 16-11-2020 2:03am

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Anecdotal but reflected in that link of Daft rentals advertised in Dublin, supply nearly doubled since the first lockdown and rents for apartments down close to 20%, heading towards 25% by Paddy's Day. Prices of houses for rent staying strong. That all supposes some form of heavy restrictions lasts to Paddy's Day which I think is reasonable. Beyond that hopefully we'll start to see covid hype die down but honestly who knows how long it will take for governments to move on from needing so many restrictions. They don't seem to be in a hurry to ease them significantly in Ireland so we'll see.

Despite the political stakes involved in forcing rents to drop significantly (or else SF will get a majority in a few years), FFG might have a blessing in disguise with covid inspired lockdowns as they are crashing the rental market while landlords votes won't be lost as apparently covid was the reason for the measures which are leading to rents plummeting. Pure, stupid luck for FFG which might save them in the next election.

I'm sure you can search through daft and find properties to support your viewpoint, but the analysis of the market in Dublin rather than a small subsample paints a very different picture to the:one you are describing. It seems professional/expert analysis of the data contradicts your analysis.

brisan · 16-11-2020 8:48am

Dav010 wrote: »

Apparently rent is down 0.8% in Dublin on the same period last year. And rising in other cities.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/housing-crisis-ireland-rents-5260710-Nov2020/%3famp=1

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/
The above link paints a vastly different picture

brisan · 16-11-2020 8:51am

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Anecdotal but reflected in that link of Daft rentals advertised in Dublin, supply nearly doubled since the first lockdown and rents for apartments down close to 20%, heading towards 25% by Paddy's Day. Prices of houses for rent staying strong. That all supposes some form of heavy restrictions lasts to Paddy's Day which I think is reasonable. Beyond that hopefully we'll start to see covid hype die down but honestly who knows how long it will take for governments to move on from needing so many restrictions. They don't seem to be in a hurry to ease them significantly in Ireland so we'll see.

Despite the political stakes involved in forcing rents to drop significantly (or else SF will get a majority in a few years), FFG might have a blessing in disguise with covid inspired lockdowns as they are crashing the rental market while landlords votes won't be lost as apparently covid was the reason for the measures which are leading to rents plummeting. Pure, stupid luck for FFG which might save them in the next election.

Unless FFG can get 25k-30k houses built every year with some at affordable prices their luck will run out at the next election

AssetBacked2 · 16-11-2020 9:27am

Dav010 wrote: »

I'm sure you can search through daft and find properties to support your viewpoint, but the analysis of the market in Dublin rather than a small subsample paints a very different picture to the:one you are describing. It seems professional/expert analysis of the data contradicts your analysis.

I follow Daft rentals in Dublin very closely and have noticed myself the significant falls in rents for apartments and also the noticeable increase in properties available generally; that's the anecdotal part. However, there is raw data in the link posted above by Brisan which confirms and quantifies the drop in asking prices I have noticed (almost 20% for apartments in 7 months but stable rental prices for houses).

Dav010 · 16-11-2020 9:49am

brisan wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/
The above link paints a vastly different picture

No brisan, it doesn’t. Check the change in rate from the same time in 2019 and you will see that there is hardly any change apart from two beds. When the sector is analysed as a whole, the change is much smaller than you and asset backed are claiming. You guys are looking at one sunset, one beds, and extrapolating that to reflect the sector as a whole.

Volumes have increased, but I don’t see analysis of how long they are advertised before letting.

I’m not sure if that graph is used in Daft analysis, but it seems odd that it is posted to contradict the analysis on which it is based.

Browney7 · 16-11-2020 9:54am

Dav010 wrote: »

No brisan, it doesn’t. Check the change in rate from the same time in 2019 and you will see that there is hardly any change apart from two beds. When the sector is analysed as a whole, the change is much smaller than you and asset backed are claiming. You guys are looking at one sunset, one beds, and extrapolating that to reflect the sector as a whole.

Doesn't the CSO include all rents currently being paid (so existing rpz properties) as opposed to rental properties being advertised for rent

brisan · 16-11-2020 9:56am

Dav010 wrote: »

No brisan, it doesn’t. Check the change in rate from the same time in 2019 and you will see that there is hardly any change apart from two beds. When the sector is analysed as a whole, the change is much smaller than you and asset backed are claiming. You guys are looking at one sunset, one beds, and extrapolating that to reflect the sector as a whole.

You pick one date I will pick another
Over 300 euro a month drop in a 2 bed from the time the lockdown started
400 euro a month in a 1 bed in the same time frame
In your time frame a 3 bed house has gone from 3092 to 2621

Rents are dropping across the board some more than others

Dav010 · 16-11-2020 10:01am

brisan wrote: »

You pick one date I will pick another
Over 300 euro a month drop in a 2 bed from the time the lockdown started
400 euro a month in a 1 bed in the same time frame
In your time frame a 3 bed house has gone from 3092 to 2621

Rents are dropping across the board some more than others

The articles relate to rents at the same period in 2019, I didn’t pick the date. The report referred to takes into account the rental market in Dublin, obviously some subsets fall due to the lack of students, but overall, your assertions appear wildly inaccurate.

AssetBacked2 · 16-11-2020 10:27am

Dav010 wrote: »

No brisan, it doesn’t. Check the change in rate from the same time in 2019 and you will see that there is hardly any change apart from two beds. When the sector is analysed as a whole, the change is much smaller than you and asset backed are claiming. You guys are looking at one sunset, one beds, and extrapolating that to reflect the sector as a whole.

Volumes have increased, but I don’t see analysis of how long they are advertised before letting.

I’m not sure if that graph is used in Daft analysis, but it seems odd that it is posted to contradict the analysis on which it is based.

Besides for 1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments; and houses for rent in Dublin, what wider scope is necessary to offer an opinion on the state of the Dublin market?

Dav010 · 16-11-2020 10:41am

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Besides for 1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments; and houses for rent in Dublin, what wider scope is necessary to offer an opinion on the State of the Dublin market?

And yet your assertion differs dramatically from authoritative analysis. Basing your analysis on drops in rents from a March 17th doesn’t give an accurate picture of the sector, there are no students, offices are closed, people are working from home. Comparing rents to the same period in 2019 would appear to give a more accurate view of how rents have changed, and the Daft report appears to show little change over that year.

As I said, I find it odd that you use the same data to come to a completely different opinion from he authority on he sector.

AssetBacked2 · 16-11-2020 10:50am

Dav010 wrote: »

And yet your assertion differs dramatically from authoritative analysis. Basing your analysis on drops in rents from a March 17th doesn’t give an accurate picture of the sector, there are no students, offices are closed, people are working from home. Comparing rents to the same period in 2019 would appear to give a more accurate view of how rents have changed, and the Daft report appears to show little change over that year.

As I said, I find it odd that you use the same data to come to a completely different opinion from he authority on he sector.

From March 17th 2020 is when, presumably, people are most concerned about as we have experienced one of, if not, the most dramatic market shocks in recent history. This was my criticism of the Daft report. It did not offer any comparison from end Q1 to end Q3. As an analogy, if house prices now are compared to what they were at the peak of the Celtic Tiger, you could actually say they have not increased for 14 years, but that is a bit pointless. Daft has its reasons for not offering any data to show the impact of covid on the market, but luckily in this forum we have people who offer their own insights as well as posting links to articles, papers and of course that link to advertised Daft rentals in Dublin.

I am not disputing your 2019 comparisons (if that makes you see what you want to see), I am simply looking at the impact of covid lockdowns on the rental market in Dublin and what has happened to the price and volume of rentals during the 7 month period.

As a side point, actually taking a starting point of just before lockdown gives you lower asking rents than if you took December 2019 (when the market peaked).

brisan · 16-11-2020 10:57am

Dav010 wrote: »

And yet your assertion differs dramatically from authoritative analysis. Basing your analysis on drops in rents from a March 17th doesn’t give an accurate picture of the sector, there are no students, offices are closed, people are working from home. Comparing rents to the same period in 2019 would appear to give a more accurate view of how rents have changed, and the Daft report appears to show little change over that year.

As I said, I find it odd that you use the same data to come to a completely different opinion from he authority on he sector.

Considering the Original Post is dated the 4th of April there has been a significant reduction in rents in Dublin since it was posted ,and that after all is what the thread is about

AssetBacked2 · 16-11-2020 11:01am

Dav010 wrote: »

And yet your assertion differs dramatically from authoritative analysis. Basing your analysis on drops in rents from a March 17th doesn’t give an accurate picture of the sector, there are no students, offices are closed, people are working from home. Comparing rents to the same period in 2019 would appear to give a more accurate view of how rents have changed, and the Daft report appears to show little change over that year.

As I said, I find it odd that you use the same data to come to a completely different opinion from he authority on he sector.

As a general point on your reference to "there are no students, offices are closed, people are working from home", I take that as you basically saying that we are not in a normal environment which presumably means you feel there will be a restoration to some extent to the demand for rentals.

I agree with that, covid lockdowns (as opposed to covid itself) are a massive demand shock to the rental market, but we need to be careful in thinking there is a normal of the past which we can return to. I was one who was convinced that, whatever about health reasons, there would be an economic necessity to have tourism seasons kicking off again in spring 2021. But I am shocked at the the re-introduction of lockdowns and with the negative and unconvinced narrative of NPHET and the politicians so I am not sure anymore. As such, how long can we cling to the idea of a past "normal" and at what point do we accept that we have a large enough time period to move on from an idea of what "normal" is?

In that context, what is ringing alarm bells for me are the government's words accompanying the Budget and Micheal McGrath's words at looking for options to raise money to pay for covid borrowing. This is extremely worrying as the borrowing to sustain lockdowns is only going to be (or at least should only be) the tip of the iceberg. Government borrowing will need to be ramped up significantly once lockdowns are brought to an end in order to restart the economy. So talk, at this point (while we are still in locdowns) of looking at raising money to pay for the borrowing to date, shows they might not be fully appreciating the scale of what is required to re-inflate the economy. Ireland are not alone in this, it affects all Western countries.

brisan · 16-11-2020 11:16am

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

As a general point on your reference to "there are no students, offices are closed, people are working from home", I take that as you basically saying that we are not in a normal environment which presumably means you feel there will be a restoration to some extent to the demand for rentals.

I agree with that, covid lockdowns (as opposed to covid itself) are a massive demand shock to the rental market, but we need to be careful in thinking there is a normal of the past which we can return to. I was one who was convinced that, whatever about health reasons, there would be an economic necessity to have tourism seasons kicking off again in spring 2021. But I am shocked at the the re-introduction of lockdowns and with the negative and unconvinced narrative of NPHET and the politicians so I am not sure anymore. As such, how long can we cling to the idea of a past "normal" and at what point do we accept that we have a large enough time period to move on from an idea of what "normal" is?

In that context, what is ringing alarm bells for me are the government's words accompanying the Budget and Micheal McGrath's words at looking for options to raise money to pay for covid borrowing. This is extremely worrying as the borrowing to sustain lockdowns is only going to be (or at least should only be) the tip of the iceberg. Government borrowing will need to be ramped up significantly once lockdowns are brought to an end in order to restart the economy. So talk, at this point (while we are still in locdowns) of looking at raising money to pay for the borrowing to date, shows they might not be fully appreciating the scale of what is required to re-inflate the economy. Ireland are not alone in this, it affects all Western countries.

https://www.independent.ie/business/jobs/potential-job-loss-figure-doubles-in-less-than-a-year-39745158.html
I posted this earlier
If these are happening now,what will happen when the life support is switched off
We are living in a false economy at the moment
I genuinely believed we would be in a far worse position now then where we are
However I did not think FFG had the balls to find the magic money tree they said did not exist and continue to pump so much money for so long into the economy in the form of PUP,,EWSS and TWSS
When the rents and bank repayments have to be paid and the subsidies stop ,then we will see where we stand
I hope the Government will spend their way out of it ,but i doubt it and it will not be pretty

Manion · 16-11-2020 12:07pm

Browney7 wrote: »

Doesn't the CSO include all rents currently being paid (so existing rpz properties) as opposed to rental properties being advertised for rent

This is why it is important to use multiple sources and understand the conceptual framework of the dataset presented. Depending on what you want to use the data for, different sources may be give you a better picture of the market. Each source represents only one of many possibles models. Some people will behave in bad faith and deliberated ignore the limitations and constraints of one dataset over another because it supports the narrative they want to believe in.

The data here (https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/) for instance is at least a partially sourced from web scraping daft.ie and people have been presenting it as more accurate then the daft report which obviously tracks the same concepts but can do so much more accurately than a webscrapper, controlling for quality. The bl.ocks.org data is still great because it gives you an idea of the changes and the trends on a much better frequency.

JimmyVik · 16-11-2020 12:13pm

I think there has been a massive effect on demand due to covid.
I think this demand will bounce back with a vengeance though once covid is no longer a concern.
When that is, is the question.

Smouse156 · 16-11-2020 12:22pm

Dav010 wrote: »

No brisan, it doesn’t. Check the change in rate from the same time in 2019 and you will see that there is hardly any change apart from two beds. When the sector is analysed as a whole, the change is much smaller than you and asset backed are claiming. You guys are looking at one sunset, one beds, and extrapolating that to reflect the sector as a whole.

Volumes have increased, but I don’t see analysis of how long they are advertised before letting.

I’m not sure if that graph is used in Daft analysis, but it seems odd that it is posted to contradict the analysis on which it is based.

Just to be clear, you can’t rely on asking prices with RPZ rules. If the rules didn’t exist we would see a clear picture in asking prices, however, as they do exist it makes it unclear.

If I was a landlord with an empty property I would be trying to offer 1-month free etc incentives without reducing the headline rate. However if there was no RPZ rules then I would just reduce the rate.

All major expensive cities have seen large rent reductions due to people relocating (San Fran down 31%, NY 15% etc). Anyone believing that realised Dublin rents have only fallen 0.8% in a year is pretty delusional IMO

JimmyVik · 16-11-2020 12:34pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Just to be clear, you can’t rely on asking prices with RPZ rules. If the rules didn’t exist we would see a clear picture in asking prices, however, as they do exist it makes it unclear.

If I was a landlord with an empty property I would be trying to offer 1-month free etc incentives without reducing the headline rate. However if there was no RPZ rules then I would just reduce the rate.

All major expensive cities have seen large rent reductions due to people relocating (San Fran down 31%, NY 15% etc). Anyone believing that realised Dublin rents have only fallen 0.8% in a year is pretty delusional IMO

If I was a landlord id be selling up, or leaving empty for now.
Current regulations in Ireland are a killer. Best to just get out imho.

PommieBast · 16-11-2020 12:39pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think there has been a massive effect on demand due to covid.
I think this demand will bounce back with a vengeance though once covid is no longer a concern.
When that is, is the question.

Ugur Sahin of BioNTech reckons things ought to be back to normal by next winter.

Claw Hammer · 16-11-2020 12:42pm

Rents in Dublin are well down. Tenants have plenty of choice and can get much lower prices that pre-Covid. I spoke to an agentt yesterday who is having trouble shifting a studio in Rathmines for €900. When last on the market it was snapped up in minutes for €950 and that was over 2 years ago.

Manion · 16-11-2020 1:06pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Rents in Dublin are well down. Tenants have plenty of choice and can get much lower prices that pre-Covid. I spoke to an agentt yesterday who is having trouble shifting a studio in Rathmines for €900. When last on the market it was snapped up in minutes for €950 and that was over 2 years ago.

I think it's been posted several times, 1 bedroom apartments are suffering the most. To extrapolate from this segment of the market to the entire market is not credible. Also, agents seem to be seeing having to work for their fees as the end of days.

Smouse156 wrote: »

Just to be clear, you can’t rely on asking prices with RPZ rules. If the rules didn’t exist we would see a clear picture in asking prices, however, as they do exist it makes it unclear.

If I was a landlord with an empty property I would be trying to offer 1-month free etc incentives without reducing the headline rate. However if there was no RPZ rules then I would just reduce the rate.

All major expensive cities have seen large rent reductions due to people relocating (San Fran down 31%, NY 15% etc). Anyone believing that realised Dublin rents have only fallen 0.8% in a year is pretty delusional IMO

Equally there was a lot of talk of rent++ happening a year ago, whereby the tenants where topping up rent off the books. Depending on the pub bar stool you sat on it ranged from ubiquitous to non existing.

Regarding your example of New York City, the black market for renting in NY is infamous and it's incredibly difficult to get a clear picture. Why accept that number versus the number for Dublin? There are also structural differences, in America you can work for an american company from anywhere in the US. If you work for an EU company, even one with offices across the EU, you must be tax resident in the country where the legal entity that employees you is based. In other-words, if you want to work for a multinational based in Ireland, you need to be a resident here. The data does support a shift from Dublin to Rural areas, but I question how long lived that will be.

Ozark707 · 16-11-2020 1:09pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Rents in Dublin are well down. Tenants have plenty of choice and can get much lower prices that pre-Covid. I spoke to an agentt yesterday who is having trouble shifting a studio in Rathmines for €900. When last on the market it was snapped up in minutes for €950 and that was over 2 years ago.

I wonder are agents getting much traction with the LL's who are still hoping to get in or around pre-Covid prices. It is incredible to see how long some LL's are holding out without going for the inevitable price drops.

Some illuminating examples here...

https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

1123heavy · 16-11-2020 1:13pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Rents in Dublin are well down. Tenants have plenty of choice and can get much lower prices that pre-Covid. I spoke to an agentt yesterday who is having trouble shifting a studio in Rathmines for €900. When last on the market it was snapped up in minutes for €950 and that was over 2 years ago.

50EU reduction in the midst of the greatest economic shock of our lifetimes so far. That is some drop! :pac:

I am trying to rent a 1 bed apartment that is decent enough to live in. I cannot find any for below 1550, including bills that's about 1700 a month. This is still extremely expensive and overpriced and I will be house sharing for half the price even now during the lockdown.

A serious shakeup is needed.

brisan · 16-11-2020 1:22pm

1123heavy wrote: »

50EU reduction in the midst of the greatest economic shock of our lifetimes so far. That is some drop! :pac:

I am trying to rent a 1 bed apartment that is decent enough to live in. I cannot find any for below 1550, including bills that's about 1700 a month. This is still extremely expensive and overpriced and I will be house sharing for half the price even now during the lockdown.

A serious shakeup is needed.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/residential-property-for-rent/?s%5Bmxp%5D=1500&s%5Bmxb%5D=1&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&s%5Bignored_agents%5D%5B0%5D=1551&s%5Bsort_by%5D=price&s%5Bsort_type%5D=d&searchSource=rental

603 on Daft 1500 and below
509 on Daft between 1000-1500
Thats in Dublin and I have no idea on quality

1123heavy · 16-11-2020 1:32pm

brisan wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/residential-property-for-rent/?s%5Bmxp%5D=1500&s%5Bmxb%5D=1&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&s%5Bignored_agents%5D%5B0%5D=1551&s%5Bsort_by%5D=price&s%5Bsort_type%5D=d&searchSource=rental

603 on Daft 1500 and below
509 on Daft between 1000-1500
Thats in Dublin and I have no idea on quality

Indeed. Scratch the surface and you'll quickly find they are of no quality whatsoever, the vast majority are very miserable looking.

I found one apartment for 1100EU and my heart skipped a beat, it was in a very nice area but it seemed to be the black sheep among the others, it hadn't come out of the year 2000 it seemed. it also had no washing machine inside it

Another for 900 literally had a toilet in the corner of the kitchen with see through plastic glass. I would love to know what goes through these landlord's heads at times other than simply dollar signs.

All the others have something really odd about them, either a bed above the kitchen appliances with a ladder to get up and down from, I don't fancy an obstacle course in the middle of the night to go for a pee. This was somehow listed as a 1 bed apartment too. I wouldn't have lived in there at 18 never mind now.

brisan · 16-11-2020 1:37pm

1123heavy wrote: »

Indeed. Scratch the surface and you'll quickly find they are of no quality whatsoever, the vast majority are very miserable looking.

I found one apartment for 1100EU and my heart skipped a beat, it was in a very nice area but it seemed to be the black sheep among the others, it hadn't come out of the year 2000 it seemed. it also had no washing machine inside it

Another for 900 literally had a toilet in the corner of the kitchen with see through plastic glass. I would love to know what goes through these landlord's heads at times other than simply dollar signs.

All the others have something really odd about them, either a bed above the kitchen appliances with a ladder to get up and down from, I don't fancy an obstacle course in the middle of the night to go for a pee. This was somehow listed as a 1 bed apartment too. I wouldn't have lived in there at 18 never mind now.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/drumcondra/grace-park-gardens-drumcondra-dublin-2095945/
Not sure if the area interests you but brand new apts in a period house

Smouse156 · 16-11-2020 1:39pm

Manion wrote: »

I think it's been posted several times, 1 bedroom apartments are suffering the most. To extrapolate from this segment of the market to the entire market is not credible. Also, agents seem to be seeing having to work for their fees as the end of days.

Equally there was a lot of talk of rent++ happening a year ago, whereby the tenants where topping up rent off the books. Depending on the pub bar stool you sat on it ranged from ubiquitous to non existing.

Regarding your example of New York City, the black market for renting in NY is infamous and it's incredibly difficult to get a clear picture. Why accept that number versus the number for Dublin? There are also structural differences, in America you can work for an american company from anywhere in the US. If you work for an EU company, even one with offices across the EU, you must be tax resident in the country where the legal entity that employees you is based. In other-words, if you want to work for a multinational based in Ireland, you need to be a resident here. The data does support a shift from Dublin to Rural areas, but I question how long lived that will be.

My point is only that the major expensive cities have seen large drops over the past 8 months and Dublin is definitely not going to be an exception. As I stated already, if Dublin wasn’t subject to RPZ then we would see the real picture (rents down 10% plus). NY is only one city, it applies across the globe in expensive cities.

I personally started a job in Dublin in June, however, I’m still living at home in Cork. There are many like me. If I did have to go up, I certainly would not be offering asking price on anything resembling 2019 rents and I’m pretty sure I’d be able to get a deal such as one month free.

Daft asking price data for rents or buying cannot be believed. I do also agree there were some under the table deals last year and rents would actually have been higher than reported.

The fact is that realised rents have actually dropped and only a uninformed fool would pay the 2019 rate. This is something the “I can’t rent it” brigade of delusional landlords can’t understand. They read misleading reports like rents only down 0.8% and still wonder why their properties are still empty. It’s hurting them more than tenants who can just try the next property for a deal.

1123heavy · 16-11-2020 1:48pm

brisan wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/drumcondra/grace-park-gardens-drumcondra-dublin-2095945/
Not sure if the area interests you but brand new apts in a period house

Just sent a message, thanks!

The Student · 16-11-2020 2:16pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

My point is only that the major expensive cities have seen large drops over the past 8 months and Dublin is definitely not going to be an exception. As I stated already, if Dublin wasn’t subject to RPZ then we would see the real picture (rents down 10% plus). NY is only one city, it applies across the globe in expensive cities.

I personally started a job in Dublin in June, however, I’m still living at home in Cork. There are many like me. If I did have to go up, I certainly would not be offering asking price on anything resembling 2019 rents and I’m pretty sure I’d be able to get a deal such as one month free.

Daft asking price data for rents or buying cannot be believed. I do also agree there were some under the table deals last year and rents would actually have been higher than reported.

The fact is that realised rents have actually dropped and only a uninformed fool would pay the 2019 rate. This is something the “I can’t rent it” brigade of delusional landlords can’t understand. They read misleading reports like rents only down 0.8% and still wonder why their properties are still empty. It’s hurting them more than tenants who can just try the next property for a deal.

There are a number of factors at play specifically in Dublin which is impacting the rental market. The majority of workers who can work from home have done so. This has led to people relocating outside of Dublin by returning home either to the county or back to their home country. On top of this you have no holiday visitors and you have the RPZ legislation.

So if we look at the above separately we have the following. No matter what people think working from home full time is not going to be widespread. There is no doubt working from home part of the time is definitely going to happen for a large number of workers who want that option.

Secondly you must be physically living in Ireland if you are an employee of an Irish company. This was only raised on RTE this morning regarding different employment rights and income tax, PRSI levels in different countries in Europe.

Thirdly why would a landlord drop rent if they are then locked into the RPZ legislation possibly for years to come?

Whether people accept it or not we still have a housing/rental crisis (albeit the pandemic will have negated it a bit allowing some people to relocate to outside the major cities).

The fact remains that we are in uncharted territory and we now see a possible end to this with the vaccines etc. then and only then will we see what the new normal is going to be.

We may still have a lot of job losses to securing a mortgage will become even harder which may result in more people renting for longer.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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