Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

polaco

Look at how many foreign workers in MNCs left Ireland since the start of March.
Do you have any links to that information I couldn't find anything about that online?

This- alongside active measures to move up to 90% of classrooms online- means all the students who were traditionally hunting for their accommodation in July/August- won't be a factor this time round (or if they are- it'll be far less noticeable than previously).
I think 90% is bit exaggerated number.
I am in process of finding new accomodation and I think people are very confident with jobs etc because they still willing to pay big money for rent.
I had only few viewings so far and I tried to negotiate small drop but no luck.

ongarite

The_Conductor wrote: »

It'll take more than a few weeks to 'normalise' the market.
Look at how many foreign workers in MNCs left Ireland since the start of March.
Frankly is staggering that the supply of vacant properties isn't almost 10 times higher than it actually is.

There is a small number of Irish nationals who returned here (possibly 12-15% the number of non-nationals who left)- but this doesn't account for how small the rise in vacant property was/is.........

Some of the foreign MNC workers are returning to Ireland in last 2 weeks since flights have opened up with Europe.
Friend from Russia only got back last week, been trying to get back to Ireland for over a month.
Same with Polish friends, flights from Warsaw have only become available again.

Many who fled Ireland to be with family in their home countries will return to work in Ireland before the summer is over.

GocRh

ongarite wrote: »

Many who fled Ireland to be with family in their home countries will return to work in Ireland before the summer is over.

Those who still have a job (majority of people who work in MNC still do) will come back as they won't have better prospects back home...
Demand will likely fall on the lower end (i.e. language students) and on new arrivals as not many people will be relocating abroad in the short term.

TheSheriff

Thought I had posted this yesterday.

We are moving out of our apartment at the end of the month. A reasonable 1-bed in D15.

Landlord put it up on Friday morning. They were inundated with requests by Sunday and withdrew it. Couldn't believe it to be honest; I thought it would be slow going for months to come.

Now we just have to figure out how to do viewings with social distancing........

Ozark707

TheSheriff wrote: »

Thought I had posted this yesterday.

We are moving out of our apartment at the end of the month. A reasonable 1-bed in D15.

Landlord put it up on Friday morning. They were inundated with requests by Sunday and withdrew it. Couldn't believe it to be honest; I thought it would be slow going for months to come.

Now we just have to figure out how to do viewings with social distancing........

Thanks for the update, that is interesting to see how quickly it went. From what I can see keenly priced rentals have been moving in the city centre even during lockdown. Now are many people are back at work I expect this trend to continue.

Jjohnrockk

Apartments are getting tenants in few days.

Things has changed in last 15 days. Prior to that I have noticed an apartment in my complex stuck for 1 month.

Situation is so much normal that pref is given to people who can move in immediately - This shows it is business as usual and a good apartment/house will gets tenants fairly easily.

overkill602

Ozark707 wrote: »

Thanks for the update, that is interesting to see how quickly it went. From what I can see keenly priced rentals have been moving in the city centre even during lockdown. Now are many people are back at work I expect this trend to continue.

lot of sharing rooms etc on the move

Some of the market had overcrowding to many people in one house extra supply will be moped up imho

Ozark707

overkill602 wrote: »

lot of sharing rooms etc on the move

Some of the market had overcrowding to many people in one house extra supply will be moped up imho

Yes many now will move for cheaper acc. If you had been previously paid >2.5k for a two bed you will save a good few hundred a month now.That will free up further units. I have noticed new units which were looking for 2.5k now looking for 2.2k (which I assume you could bargain down further).

JimmyVik

ongarite wrote: »

Some of the foreign MNC workers are returning to Ireland in last 2 weeks since flights have opened up with Europe.
Friend from Russia only got back last week, been trying to get back to Ireland for over a month.
Same with Polish friends, flights from Warsaw have only become available again.

Many who fled Ireland to be with family in their home countries will return to work in Ireland before the summer is over.

We have about 20 people in our company who went home in March, a fair few of them I hear gave up their apartments and are working from their home countries. Another bunch of them gave up apartments and moved home in Ireland.
So they are all currently working from wherever home is at the moment. They are all expected to be back working in the office in Dublin at the start of August though. That date may change if the virus makes a comeback.
Some of them are now looking for new accommodation in anticipation that there might be more competition as the removal from lockdown progresses

Lux23

I don't know about most residential properties, but the student blocks that have flown up around the city in recent months and years will be mostly empty next year. Lots of them were half empty already. If they get an exemption to rent to professionals for a year or so, that could have a massive impact on properties in the city centre.

The_Conductor

Lux23 wrote: »

I don't know about most residential properties, but the student blocks that have flown up around the city in recent months and years will be mostly empty next year. Lots of them were half empty already. If they get an exemption to rent to professionals for a year or so, that could have a massive impact on properties in the city centre.

How many professionals want to live in shared accommodation though (and the lions share of these student units are bedrooms with a shared kitchen/livingroom/diner (and often bathroom).

Its not a given that many professionals will have any interest at all in student accommodation.

Edgware

ongarite wrote: »

Some of the foreign MNC workers are returning to Ireland in last 2 weeks since flights have opened up with Europe.
Friend from Russia only got back last week, been trying to get back to Ireland for over a month.
Same with Polish friends, flights from Warsaw have only become available again.

Many who fled Ireland to be with family in their home countries will return to work in Ireland before the summer is over.

There will be movement back to Ireland certainly. In case where there is only one wage earner he/she may come back and the rest come back when schools reopen.

Blut2

The_Conductor wrote: »

How many professionals want to live in shared accommodation though (and the lions share of these student units are bedrooms with a shared kitchen/livingroom/diner (and often bathroom).

Its not a given that many professionals will have any interest at all in student accommodation.

I'd wager most professionals in their early/mid-20s would have no problem living in modern student units. Any people in that age bracket moving to Dublin would be glad of the social side of communal living like that when moving to a new city, wouldn't mind the slightly reduced quality of living, and would be delighted for the decrease in rent. Not long term mind - but certainly for 12 months while they get settled.

Bear in mind the alternative option for most of them currently is a room in a houseshare, often further away from their job, always with a shared bathroom, and mostly in older houses in the suburbs that really aren't designed for 3/4/5 adults living in them - noise-wise, space-wise etc. Its not a case of a nice modern 2bed apartment in Ranelagh being the other option.

I know I would have been delighted at that age to have the student accom option. And I've also visited student accommodation semi recently - its worth bearing in mind its far, far nicer these days than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Its gone a lot more upmarket so that they can charge international students a bomb for it.

This would be about 'standard' these days, not even on the 'fancy' side of things: https://www.ucd.ie/residences/residences/roebuckhallresidence/

stateofflux

A quick search on Daft showed up only nine rentals in Dublin 6 under €1000 and only 1 studio under €900.

My guess is because of uncertainty and everything in stasis it will be a while before anyone has a clear view of what is happening

Hubertj

Blut2 wrote: »

I'd wager most professionals in their early/mid-20s would have no problem living in modern student units. Any people in that age bracket moving to Dublin would be glad of the social side of communal living like that when moving to a new city, wouldn't mind the slightly reduced quality of living, and would be delighted for the decrease in rent. Not long term mind - but certainly for 12 months while they get settled.

Bear in mind the alternative option for most of them currently is a room in a houseshare, often further away from their job, always with a shared bathroom, and mostly in older houses in the suburbs that really aren't designed for 3/4/5 adults living in them - noise-wise, space-wise etc. Its not a case of a nice modern 2bed apartment in Ranelagh being the other option.

I know I would have been delighted at that age to have the student accom option. And I've also visited student accommodation semi recently - its worth bearing in mind its far, far nicer these days than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Its gone a lot more upmarket so that they can charge international students a bomb for it.

This would be about 'standard' these days, not even on the 'fancy' side of things: https://www.ucd.ie/residences/residences/roebuckhallresidence/

my brother lived in a coliving place when he initially moved to Amsterdam for work. He thought it was great - met people in a similar situation, made friends, then got a proper apartment once he knew his way around.

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

my brother lived in a coliving place when he initially moved to Amsterdam for work. He thought it was great - met people in a similar situation, made friends, then got a proper apartment once he knew his way around.

Thats it though- it was a very temporary situation, until he got his bearings, and then he went out and got his own apartment.

The whole setup of the student apartments is for very short-term lets- or to a specific cohort who really don't care about how their privacy and experience of living away from home- is a shared one, rather than a personal one.

The question specifically mentions 'professionals'- which I interpreted to be workers other than those entering the workforce for the first time- people with some experience under their belts. Maybe a young person starting out might view it as a stepping stone- but thats not really what anyone would assume a professional to be.

Blut2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thats it though- it was a very temporary situation, until he got his bearings, and then he went out and got his own apartment.

The whole setup of the student apartments is for very short-term lets- or to a specific cohort who really don't care about how their privacy and experience of living away from home- is a shared one, rather than a personal one.

The question specifically mentions 'professionals'- which I interpreted to be workers other than those entering the workforce for the first time- people with some experience under their belts. Maybe a young person starting out might view it as a stepping stone- but thats not really what anyone would assume a professional to be.

Again though, I think you may have student accommodation from a different era in mind - there is if anything more privacy in modern student accommodation than in the house shares that so many young people live in in Dublin these days. The walls are better soundproofed than in average 3bed semi-D, and the rooms are mostly en-suite unlike the rooms in the houseshare.

"Professional" would imply professional work, not someones age. A 24 year old tech worker working a white collar job for Google would be a professional by any definition for example.

The_Conductor

Blut2 wrote: »

Again though, I think you may have student accommodation from a different era in mind - there is if anything more privacy in modern student accommodation than in the house shares that so many young people live in in Dublin these days. The walls are better soundproofed than in average 3bed semi-D, and the rooms are mostly en-suite unlike the rooms in the houseshare.

"Professional" would imply professional work, not someones age. A 24 year old tech worker working a white collar job for Google would be a professional by any definition for example.

The white collar worker for Google (or Facebook, or Ebay- or any of a long number of other companies) are all working from home for the foreseeable future (and certainly until the end of the year). They are not the 'professionals' who will be looking for these student units come September.

Honestly- I don't think there will be a new normal that we can point to- and suggest that this is how things are playing out- for possibly 16-18 months- its not something that is going to resolve itself in a month or two, its simply not going to happen.

As for ye-olde-student-accommodation- I did my first undergrad almost 30 years ago- and stayed in digs up in Dublin. I later went back and did a second undergrad and a postgrad- as a mature student, while working fulltime (which was hair-raising in several different ways)- during which time I lived in somewhat more modern student accommodation. It suited a particular stage in life for me. I'd sooner pull out my own finger nails and then my teeth- than go back to it though. Perhaps it'll suit a particular stage in other people's lives- time will tell.

Either way- I would suggest September/October 2021- not 2020- would be a good time to take stock and get a better idea of how the market is functioning, what is working, and what needs fine tuning.

JimmyVik

Lux23 wrote: »

I don't know about most residential properties, but the student blocks that have flown up around the city in recent months and years will be mostly empty next year. Lots of them were half empty already. If they get an exemption to rent to professionals for a year or so, that could have a massive impact on properties in the city centre.

I wonder how the infamous co-living blocks are going to get on after this.

The_Conductor

JimmyVik wrote: »

I wonder how the infamous co-living blocks are going to get on after this.

The Minister was asked this question on Newstalk during the week, his response was:

'I believe there continues to be a place for co-living arrangements in the Irish housing mix'.

He didn't go into any further detail.

polaco

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/rathmines/14-palmerston-park-2-rathmines-dublin-2035511/
Once I saw how many people were in line (around 50 people) to see place I gave up. I think people still willing to pay big money for the place like that I don't think that current situation will have any impact on property market (renting) any time soon.

The_Conductor

polaco wrote: »

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines

It is Rathmines- its one of the most desirable areas to live in, in the whole country. Even a garden shed in Rathmines would have a queue to look at it........

Blut2

On top of the excellent location its also a 3bedroom, with parking, for 1900e p/m total... not surprising theres a queue around the block.

polaco

polaco wrote: »

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/rathmines/14-palmerston-park-2-rathmines-dublin-2035511/
Once I saw how many people were in line (around 50 people) to see place I gave up. I think people still willing to pay big money for the place like that I don't think that current situation will have any impact on property market (renting) any time soon.

I live in a house share with two others, late 20s early 30s in leafy Marino, Dublin. We are two professionals working in banking and software development while our third ship mate is a PhD candidate.

Our land lord is some what of a philanthropist already and our rent is a very palatable Euro 500 a month each by four so Euro 2,000 for a four bedroom house half an hour walk from O Connell Street.

Our 4th flatmate is moving out. We put up our reasonable single room on Daft and received maybe only 15 emails. The last time we had a room available in December 2018 I got maybe 50 to 70 mails in 24 hours.

I contacted the land lord who is an accountant and finance director and a very savy gentleman telling him about our travails. He immediately dropped the rent for the property to Euro 1,800 a month.

We managed to get two professionals over for a viewing this evening but haven't had much more interest. I think this shows a dramatic swing in the market.

Bob Dylan once sang, The Times They are a Changing.

Hubertj

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

I live in a house share with two others, late 20s early 30s in leafy Marino, Dublin. We are two professionals working in banking and software development while our third ship mate is a PhD candidate.

Our land lord is some what of a philanthropist already and our rent is a very palatable Euro 500 a month each by four so Euro 2,000 for a four bedroom house half an hour walk from O Connell Street.

Our 4th flatmate is moving out. We put up our reasonable single room on Daft and received maybe only 15 emails. The last time we had a room available in December 2018 I got maybe 50 to 70 mails in 24 hours.

I contacted the land lord who is an accountant and finance director and a very savy gentleman telling him about our travails. He immediately dropped the rent for the property to Euro 1,800 a month.

We managed to get two professionals over for a viewing this evening but haven't had much more interest. I think this shows a dramatic swing in the market.

Bob Dylan once sang, The Times They are a Changing.

Given the current scenario i think a lot of people would be nervous moving into a house share with people they don’t know. Marino is a nice place to live though.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

Given the current scenario i think a lot of people would be nervous moving into a house share with people they don’t know. Marino is a nice place to live though.

We have been working from home for three months and are plague free.

Assetbacked

Ozark707 wrote: »

The best source I have come across is this link which is updated on the 1st of every month

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

This has STL's removed I believe so it is the truest barometer I find to gauge available supply for non STL's. I don't think Daft have a filter option to remove 'Weekly' lets which means it is harder to track an accurate number on non STL's on the market.

What this doesn't account for however is the multiple listings under one ad, e.g. Capital docks, so in effect supply is likely to be far higher than what you get in this link.

The number of available rental properties has trebled since the start of the year. That is quite remarkable and with flights being impacted for another 2/3 months it looks like demand won't outpace supply any time soon.

The residential and commercial rental sector is the only exciting part of the Irish property market these days.

WhiteMemento9

polaco wrote: »

I went for apartment viewing today in Ratmines
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/rathmines/14-palmerston-park-2-rathmines-dublin-2035511/
Once I saw how many people were in line (around 50 people) to see place I gave up. I think people still willing to pay big money for the place like that I don't think that current situation will have any impact on property market (renting) any time soon.

Have you just arrived in Dublin. It is a three bedroom place in Rathmines?

WhiteMemento9

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

.....

Bob Dylan once sang, The Times They are a Changing.

These are the areas that you would expect to start seeing the biggest drops. The reason rents and demands soared in these areas was due to the unavailability closer to the city so people were forced to look further afield. The demand further out from the City should fall off a cliff in these areas with the supply having increased so dramatically.

WhiteMemento9

I say that and then see this advertised in D12.

A bedroom in a shared house which is owner-occupied looking for females only at the bargain price of 1100 a month.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/house-share/walkinstown/3b-moeran-road-walkinstown-dublin-1167334/

Has the pandemic affected peoples sanity this much?