The HOPE thread. And there are good reasons to be hopeful!!

DeVore

When talking about this stuff its hard to strike the right note between "shure it'll be graaaand" and "I see dead people". We're all scared either for ourselves or for loved ones but there IS hope and we need to talk about it as much as we talk about the danger.

So, lets talk about positives and what you need to know. I'll break this up into sections.

There is no such thing in nature as an exponential.
We've all seen the graphs that look like this:


That looks terrible and its going no where good! We're doomed, doooooomed! No, no we're not.
There is no such thing as an exponential in nature. All such graphs are really only the start of a thing called a logistic curve.



If you look at the bottom of those graphs, they look very similar at the start but they end very differently.

All viruses follow logistic curves. They all eventually hit an "inflection point". The is the point where the graph stops "going up more than it goes right" and starts "going right more than it goes up!".

Why would they do that? Well for one, the virus needs humans to be in contact for it to jump from one to the other. Stop all that contact and the virus slows down drastically. We've stopped that contact and we're seeing the impact of it. We're going to continue to see that impact for 10-14 more days! We DID GOOD. We appear to be wrestling this thing to manageable numbers pretty damned quickly. Thats an excellent start!

Let me hook you up to my sensei on this, 3blue1brown. Its a bit mathsy but its also an excellent explanation of why and how these graphs turn. (spoiler: its staying in doors and washing your hands).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Our health workers are amazing and brave and we bought them time.
Ok, we all like to complain about the waiting lists and the missing PPE and the trolleys. But thats the health care *system*. Not the workers.
I was key founder of a company called WhatClinic which works with globalised health care systems in just about every country in the world and I visited easily 30 of them personally and researched many more.

Irelands quality of medical staff is exceptionally high. Their training and their competency is recognised world wide. (Thats why our nurses and doctors can travel to other countries and you know, get paid properly). They're not just good, they're (anecdotally) considered some of the best.

They know they are going to get sick from Covid. No one says it because its obvious. But we, the public, bought them time. As of Sunday 2677 people were sick with Covid. Of them 674 were healthcare workers. (source: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/327605-an-analysis-of-the-2677-cases-of-covid-19-in-ireland-as-of-29-march-/ )
Thats a huge amount of wealthe care workers but the vast majority will recover without intervention and the ones who DO need intervention will get it BECAUSE WE STAYED AT HOME. The system isnt over loaded and we can treat them. You can bet that when they arent infectious any more, they're going to go right back to work.

If this had happened during a spike, we would risk losing the most precious thing we have, our healthcare workers. When this is over, we need to remember who was there for us. We couldnt be in better hands.


But now what, we are trapped in our houses.

People think we cant beat this thing. Thats absolutely not true. We would have a tough time beating this thing RIGHT NOW. But we're not sitting on our hands. New vents are being purchased (https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0320/1124290-covid-19-coronavirus-health/ ) we have about 2100 right now and 100 a week coming. It just so happens that one of the biggest manufacturers of ventilators in the world is here, in Ireland. And they are doubling production (https://www.siliconrepublic.com/companies/medtronic-double-production-ventilators-galway-ireland ) and open sourcing a design for one of their machines so that other companies can manfacturer them. ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/03/30/medtronic-gives-away-ventilator-design-specs-in-coronavirus-fight-ahead-of-tesla-alliance/#2cb00e564591 )

There is every chance that, given some time, Ireland can control the infection rate such that we have vents for everyone who needs one.

So what does it look like in 4-6 weeks?
This is obviously speculation and no one can know because so much is changing with this virus and the information we know about it. But just about everyone in the world who can help is working on this. Humans, are in fact, amazing. We're exceptionally clever little monkies. There is every chance that someone finds something about this virus that helps mitigate it. Maybe thats a mixture of existing drugs that has a positive effect on treatment. Suppose they find a cocktail that mitigates the severest symptoms in half the patients. That would effectively double the number of vents and ICU beds!

If I had to guess (and I dont like to but here we are), I would say in a months to 6 weeks time we will see a relaxing of the lockdown for people under 60. Still social distancing, still no large gatherings, still hand washing, probably no schools but a return to work and a return to life, at least temporarily. Yes, the virus will start to spread again but we are now aware of it. If it gets too much, we go back to another, probably shorter, lock down. All the time keeping the elderly and vulnerable safe and secure. This brings us up to herd immunity which is around when around 60% of the population has had it and recovered.

Isnt this going to come around every year?!

Covid now exists in our world and that particularly nasty genie isnt going back in its bottle any time soon BUT there is good news here too:
A vaccine is on the way and while thats likely to be a year from now before its available to the public, it is hoped to be effective long term.
Also, people who have immunity now having had it, should see that being persisent. (warning: I am not an immunologist).

The reason is that Covid has a slow mutation rate. (source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/The-science-of-coronavirus-how-fast-it-15135782.php )
The rate of mutation in coronaviruses — about two mutations per month — is much slower than it is with the influenza virus, which averages about eight to 10 mutations per month.

This is a VERY GOOD THING. Flu mutates much quicker which means we have to keep guessing which vaccines will work and sometimes a new strain arises. Covid mutates much slower and is an easier target to hit as a result.


Eventually we get to herd immunity when the virus has a tough time finding someone who isnt immune to jump to. Right now its like an all you can eat buffet for it, every jump is someone who is susceptible to it. But later its going to find it much much harder to jump to someone who is vulnerable to it.

And viruses have to jump. Humans are a terrible TERRIBLE place for them to be. We have a really nasty immune system that will totally kick this things ass if it stays too long.

If you want to see more easily understood science about the immune system, I highly recommend Crash Course. This is their three part crash course on the immune system and its very easy to watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd2cf5hValM

The very worst thing for it is if we all stopped mixing with each other. Suddenly its stuck here, no where to jump to in a host that has a terminator of an immune system.

We're not stuck in here with it. Its stuck in here with us.

Thelonious Monk

.

ShyMets

DeVore wrote: »

When talking about this stuff its hard to strike the right note between "shure it'll be graaaand" and "I see dead people". We're all scared either for ourselves or for loved ones but there IS hope and we need to talk about it as much as we talk about the danger.

<snip>

An absolutely brilliant post. However this is the Coronavirus forum. Positivity will not be tolerated. We want misery, scaremongering, hysteria & lots fu*king of it

Wheety

ShyMets wrote: »

An absolutely brilliant post. However this is the Coronavirus forum. Positivity will not be tolerated. We want misery, scaremongering, hysteria & lots fu*king of it

Why would you quote the whole thing again in the 3rd post?

Thelonious Monk

Hopefully a brave new world emerges from all this. After WW1 in 1919 people wanted to go back to 1914, they couldn't. There needs to be a realisation that there's no going back to 2019. "All changed, changed utterly".

SuperRabbit

Good news in terms of the other big C:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/cancer-blood-test-detections-screening-symptoms-grail-harvard-ucl-a9437021.html <<< more cancer screening

Cancer death rates are going down and down and down every year, every few months i read about some new innovation with cancer that will save thousands of lives. We are all waiting for the "cancer is cured" news story but meanwhile we are getting there, step by step

DeVore

DeVore wrote: »

Flu mutates much quicker which means we have to keep guessing which vaccines will work and sometimes a new strain arises. Covid mutates much slower and is an easier target to hit as a result.

I derive much encouragment from this, and have great faith in microbiologists and other experts to find a vaccine within months.

DeVore

The Guardian also have a good list of postive news links: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/covid-19-a-good-time-to-look-for-good-news

Wibbs

SuperRabbit wrote: »

Cancer death rates are going down and down and down every year, every few months i read about some new innovation with cancer that will save thousands of lives. We are all waiting for the "cancer is cured" news story but meanwhile we are getting there, step by step

+1 I know two people that would have been pretty much sent home to die twenty years ago, but are fit and well and cured today because of these year on year innovations.

And there's very promising research that came out of Wales where they wanted to see how they could use killer T cells to kill drug resistant bacteria. The cells they used to test this that could be infected easily just happened to be a type of cancer cell. The T cells worked pretty well with bacteria, but one particular boyo went and killed all the cancer cells, infected or not, but left non cancerous cells alone. Hmmm said the Welsh folks... So they fired these guys at cancerous cells from bone, lung, bowel, blood, skin, you name it and these little feckers killed all of them, while leaving healthy cells alone. Yep. They isolated it down to a particular protein these T cells were targeting. The odd thing is all our cells have this protein, but these T cells can tell some subtle difference and they as yet can't figure out how. How cool is that. They might be a "magic bullet" and/or research on them and how they can spot the cancer cells could well lead to it.

You can be pretty sure that the fight against this Covid bastard mounted by some of the finest minds on the planet will be won and on top of that the weapons we build in that fight will have applications way beyond just this one virus.

SuperRabbit

Good news network: https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/

New Good News channel with yerman from the office:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf3qbdOSGZ8

DeVore

The vaccine they are working on, while still a long way from being publically available, is a new way of producing vaccines and could revolutionise future vaccines... https://wellcome.ac.uk/news/new-way-developing-vaccines-covid-19-could-help-world-prepare-future-outbreaks

Wibbs

As I posted in another thread, the human body is bloody incredible and as DeV's cartoon notes it's a horribly toxic and dangerous place for pathogens. If your immune system was to be visualised, this is pretty close to how it looks to the world of viruses and bacteria.



Bruce is the adaptive defence, Ving Rhames is the cell mediated one:D

DeVore

Look.... Elle magazine is not usuuuually something I would quote as a source but still, here we are

38 positive stories about Covid19.

https://www.elle.com/uk/life-and-culture/g31658888/coronavirus-covid-19-good-news/

With all this Good News I feel a song coming on, possums

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcjh1a9Yoao

RobertKK

Of course there is reason for hope.

It will not last forever, it is just getting to that point as it will seem ages but life will eventually return to normal.
Just eat healthy, take some exercise, take time away from coverage of the virus every day, learn a new skill or language in the meantime, but keep oneself occupied until then.

RiseAbove4

Thank you Tom

I wanted to strangle you yesterday (for many, we were already very aware of the curve and it just increased anxiety), but I’d high five you today if I could (and I can’t, for obvious reasons)

Pin this fúcker everywhere. Pin it here. Paste it to AH and other very active forums

Share it and amplify the positivity

shesty

I hope it teaches us all about TIME!!!That big fat thing we have forgotten about in today's instant world....the biggest problem for most people right now is that there isn't an answer right this instant and we have to wait.Quite a while.

In doing so,it teaches us that nature doesm't rush...we would do well.to remember that :-)

I love the positive vibes!

RiseAbove4

Much more traction on the “we’re all fùcked!” thread yesterday

Surprise surprise :-)

DeVore

RiseAbove4 wrote: »

Much more traction on the “we’re all fùcked!” thread yesterday

Surprise surprise :-)

One of my favourite tubers, CPG GREY did an excellent vid on what goes viral... surprise surprise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rE3j_RHkqJc

Speakerboxx

Reeling in the Years 2020 is going to be one unforgettable episode when they do come around to release it in time.

shesty

I heard it said that Leo's Paddy's Day speech will be one of the highlights!

0gac3yjefb5sv7

New cases dropped a lot today.

Hopefully we can keep it going down now for the next few weeks!

Covid19

DeVore wrote: »

The vaccine they are working on, while still a long way from being publically available, is a new way of producing vaccines and could revolutionise future vaccines...

Ah. My days, I fear, are numbered. Murphys Law, methinks.

I was looking forward to finding an April fools joke in the newspapers today- with so much depressing Covid news it would have stood out a mile so I’d say many newspapers didn’t bother- sometimes you just need something to make you smile

DeVore

I think today was really really not the time for Aprils Fools jokes hahaha... People are fried and we need to band together, not play pranks on each other.

Alf Veedersane

Wheety wrote: »

Why would you quote the whole thing again in the 3rd post?

#concannonbots :pac:

Kivaro

Covid19 wrote: »

Ah. My days, I fear, are numbered. Murphys Law, methinks.

Thank you for joining boards.
When I saw your first post, I had a really good belly laugh.
Thank you for that. A good solid residual positive.
Let's keep this thread going.

SuperRabbit

Yeah so many important announcements are being made all the time that you can't have people in the April Fool's mindset of doubting everything so you just have to cancel the whole thing.

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/russia-sends-cargo-plane-of-medical-supplies-to-us-there-is-no-alternative-to-working-together/

There's some good news! Can't help but feel Russia needs that as much as the US but sharing is sharing.

DeVore

Oh and I proposed to my boo on my 50th birthday if you all need some awwww.

The pic attached was shot during the zoom party I did it at and the reactions are fire!

VinLieger

SuperRabbit wrote: »

Yeah so many important announcements are being made all the time that you can't have people in the April Fool's mindset of doubting everything so you just have to cancel the whole thing.

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/russia-sends-cargo-plane-of-medical-supplies-to-us-there-is-no-alternative-to-working-together/

There's some good news! Can't help but feel Russia needs that as much as the US but sharing is sharing.

I wouldnt call this good news tbh, its the same as china trying to whitewash their mistakes by scrambling to supply to world with PPE, this is just Putin playing games with a fefinite ulterior motive behind it

Wheety

DeVore wrote: »

Oh and I proposed to my boo on my 50th birthday if you all need some awwww.

The pic attached was shot during the zoom party I did it at and the reactions are fire!

[img][/img]

VinLieger wrote: »

I wouldnt call this good news tbh, its the same as china trying to whitewash their mistakes by scrambling to supply to world with PPE, this is just Putin playing games with a fefinite ulterior motive behind it

I tend to read replies first and then look at what someone has replied to so initially I thought VinLieger was replying to DeVore

DeVore

Wheety wrote: »

I tend to read replies first and then look at what someone has replied to so initially I thought VinLieger was replying to DeVore

Hahah when you put it like that it does seem a bit off

eeeee

Congratulations DeVore!

ShineOn7

DeVore wrote: »

Oh and I proposed to my boo on my 50th birthday if you all need some awwww.

The pic attached was shot during the zoom party I did it at and the reactions are fire!

Brilliant

DeVore

Thank you, life continues.

Alf Veedersane

DeVore wrote: »

Oh and I proposed to my boo on my 50th birthday if you all need some awwww.

The pic attached was shot during the zoom party I did it at and the reactions are fire!

Brilliant
Congrats.

DeVore

DeVore wrote: »

I think today was really really not the time for Aprils Fools jokes hahaha... People are fried and we need to band together, not play pranks on each other.

Congratulations on your engagement.

I disagree on your point about humour- humour is very important in these times- I’ve suffered a lot of death through the years with various family members - sometimes, it’s only the humour that gets you through.

DeVore

True but I never really found Aprils Fools to be particularly funny.

The Irish (and others) creating funny images and gifs and vids on the other hand, some of those are absolutely hilarious

ShineOn7

Infection rate of those with Covid-19 has dropped, latest figures show


https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0404/1128496-covid-19-figures/?fbclid=IwAR29MDeTiVSQh2zyzdg0lW8XSs5qgUlXlQQKXeWi3exUCN4U2CoiRMX_U3c


"The number of people that a person with Covid-19 is infecting in Ireland is reducing.

The "RE" number, or the reproductive rate of the virus, refers to how many other people a confirmed case goes on to infect, and it is closely monitored by health officials.

On 16 March, a person infected with Covid-19 here would "likely" infect another 4.3 people.

Minister for Health Simon Harris said that by the end of March, this dropped to 2.5 people.

At a news conference this afternoon, Mr Harris said that this is "real progress", but said we need to get this number below one. He said if we can reduce this figure to below one, it means the "virus doesn't sustain itself in the community".

Mr Harris said that the next seven days will be "absolutely critical".
The number of "close contacts" recorded for people with the virus has now reduced to three, down from around 20 a few weeks ago.


Mr Harris said that this is because we are now "making it harder for the disease to spread".

However he said, even though the rate of growth is slowing, it is still too high"

auspicious

Though I'd post this here. Something to lift the spirits.

Professional commentary on kids back garden football.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-52152335/coronavirus-garden-goals-getting-pro-commentary

DeVore

This is a good graph.

DeVore

There is an argument that we're seeing better case infection rates because we arent testing enough. While its true we should test more, we're actually pretty good at testing per-capita compared to other EU countries. At the same time, its true that not testing will have this effect.

So, heres the important stat thats hard to deny, deaths. But here there is some hope too.

Carry

Ah, but there was a great April's fool in some Clare paper. They reported that Bruce Springsteen got stuck in Ireland and is self-isolating in a cottage in Feakle.

For a second I got all excited...

Congrats DeVore, and well done with your informations (and making it to 50).

AllForIt

DeVore wrote: »

There is no such thing in nature as an exponential.

What about a nuclear chain reaction?

DeVore

Eventually it runs out of nuclear material to chain react.

(I didnt say all the logistic curves were small )

DeVore

TB vaccine (BCG) shows promise as a prophalactic vaccination. More trials being run on care workers in NY.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-more-striking-evidence-bcg-vaccine-might-protect-against-covid-19-1.4222110

UpBack1234

I'm hearing that countries that have had national TB vaccination programs are doing better and that this includes Ireland - is BCG one of the ones we would have gotten as kids or would we have to get it again as adults should it deliver on this initial promise?

Purgative

This gladdened my heart


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-lancashire-52192420




Poor little kid.:(

DeVore

UpBack1234 wrote: »

I'm hearing that countries that have had national TB vaccination programs are doing better and that this includes Ireland - is BCG one of the ones we would have gotten as kids or would we have to get it again as adults should it deliver on this initial promise?

Way too early to tell, and I'm not an epidermiologist so I couldnt and shouldnt answer that.

From my understanding of numbers, what will need to happen is a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial (which is what they are doing in NY afaik). With sufficient numbers, that will give an idea if its something that actually works.

I could imagine a booster shot might be desireable/necessary but thats only my lay-mans understanding of epidermiology.

All of this needs further research, its far from proven and we shouldnt jump to conclusions. But this is the "Hope" thread, not the "Proven outcomes with clinical trials attached" thread so I feel its got sufficient science behind it to be encouraging.

ShineOn7

UpBack1234 wrote: »

I'm hearing that countries that have had national TB vaccination programs are doing better and that this includes Ireland

Source?

I'm hearing a lot of things but I don't repeat them without a credible link to back it up

DeVore

Theres a number of links out there but the Times seems like a credible source.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-more-striking-evidence-bcg-vaccine-might-protect-against-covid-19-1.4222110