When and how will it end?

Loafing Oaf

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Woke up in the middle of the night and got some of the BBC news, something about the curve not being half as catastrophic as they thought, something about five thousand deaths in the uk instead of many more? Sounded positive. Must look it up today to clarify.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-lockdown-is-on-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

gar32

So could someone explain how a vaccine is tested ? Is there a Blind Placebo test? How long are subjects studied for after the vaccine? Do the only look for know reactions from a vaccine or are other factors taken into account ?

Hamsterchops

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-lockdown-is-on-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

That's the one, many thanks.

So they were expecting 260,000 deaths!

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

They haven't been successful in two decades

They haven't been as successful. Which is fair since they boomed high above most other companies for a long time. They've just taken a series of hits. They're still a massive company spread across many countries. Very prominent in China, when western companies are often forced out due to national interests.

Nah. Covid is bad for business for everyone, but I doubt GE will crash because of it. They've still got their fingers in many pies, and while the GE airlines will be hit hard, there remains other options for them to survive.

Legalfarmer89

BoatMad wrote: »

Germany has one of the largest ICU bed capacity per capita in the world , we do not , the outcomes will be very asymmetric , just like Italy

Didn't realise this..............

rubber duk

Re successes in occidental countries folks its all down to testing, same with Germany, we are falling over badly in this respect by relying totally on lockdown to prevent spread. Lockdown needs to go hand in hand with increased testing, we have reduced our level of testing. Potential patients now require a minimum of 2 of the headline 4 symptoms, and this will allow infected people to pass through the net....what is the reason for this?? Have we no access to test kits? Does the govt not want to spend too much on test kits?

Loafing Oaf

rubber duk wrote: »

Re successes in occidental countries folks its all down to testing, same with Germany, we are falling over badly in this respect by relying totally on lockdown to prevent spread. Lockdown needs to go hand in hand with increased testing, we have reduced our level of testing. Potential patients now require a minimum of 2 of the headline 4 symptoms, and this will allow infected people to pass through the net....what is the reason for this?? Have we no access to test kits? Does the govt not want to spend too much on test kits?

But isn't the point of testing to get people to self-isolate? And shouldn't neaerly everybody be self-isolating by this stage, acting as though and anybody they might meet is infected. TBH, if someone isn't already doing their best in this regard, I wouldn't be confident of them doing it if they tested positive.

Wtf ?

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

This is my prediction, I bet I will be proven right:
- This won't really end. They might re-open after Easter but that's exactly when the disease will return.

- There will be shortages of pretty much everything once things are reopen. It takes 4 weeks for anything to arrive from China.
- There will probably be another lockdown in November as the virus usually returns in winter - total mess again.
- The US economy will go into depression, there will be a lot of 'dead cat' bounces along the way. It was already a house of cards before the virus.
- people will start using infrared cameras everywhere like at Asian airports to see who is sick
- Public places will finally be cleaned properly like a crime scene. People will start washing hands. It will be normal to wear a mask in public.

Go straight to the top of the class !

thebaz

one thing that may give a quick end to this is the anti-body test - should be ready in 2 weeks , so perhaps at the end of April we will get a much more exact death rate for virus - given it will test many who are assymtomatic (hopefully many many) and others who were not sick eneogh to get testing in these early days - if ther is a death rate well under 1% we should see shutown lifted gradually. Hopeing this might be a quick return to a normailty of sorts.

sheepsh4gger

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Woke up in the middle of the night and got some of the BBC news, something about the curve not being half as catastrophic as they thought, something about five thousand deaths in the uk instead of many more? Sounded positive. Must look it up today to clarify.

It's an exponential curve. Things will get much worse before they get better.
I'm not an expert but I think there are different strains of the virus - some more deadly, some less.

Loafing Oaf

thebaz wrote: »

one thing that may give a quick end to this is the anti-body test - should be ready in 2 weeks , so perhaps at the end of April we will get a much more exact death rate for virus - given it will test many who are assymtomatic (hopefully many many) and others who were not sick eneogh to get testing in these early days - if ther is a death rate well under 1% we should see shutown lifted gradually. Hopeing this might be a quick return to a normailty of sorts.

Irrespective of this, the virus undeniably is and will remain a serious threat to the elderly and those with conditions like asthma. It's not obvious to me what measures short of total lockdown will prevent people in these categories from contracting it.

thebaz

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

It's an exponential curve. Things will get much worse before they get better.
I'm not an expert but I think there are different strains of the virus - some more deadly, some less.

most experts believe the virus mutates very little - that is ther findings at this stage - which is good .

johnfás

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Irrespective of this, the virus undeniably is and will remain a serious threat to the elderly and those with conditions like asthma. It's not obvious to me what measures short of total lockdown will prevent people in these categories from contracting it.

I think that’s probably correct and there won’t be a lockdown forever. It will be a combination of the anti body test, some form of effective treatment, sufficient beds in the system and a hope that a vaccine is on the way that will lift restrictions and then yes, unfortunately, there will be a continuing underlying level of mortality.

rubber duk

rubber duk wrote: »

Re successes in occidental countries folks its all down to testing, same with Germany, we are falling over badly in this respect by relying totally on lockdown to prevent spread. Lockdown needs to go hand in hand with increased testing, we have reduced our level of testing. Potential patients now require a minimum of 2 of the headline 4 symptoms, and this will allow infected people to pass through the net....what is the reason for this?? Have we no access to test kits? Does the govt not want to spend too much on test kits?

Yes, but that's the problem... people like yourself seem to believe that the lockdown (of any type) is supposed to prevent the spread of the virus.

It's not.

It's intended to slow down the spread to allow the health services, the government, and the general population time to adjust to this new environment.

As for the shortage of test kits, think supply and demand. Every country in the world is seeking to purchase/develop those kits. You have to be a little more realistic about the situation. It's going to take time for governments to catch up with the virus, because previous systems didn't account for such an event.. and so there aren't adequate supplies in stock.

thebaz

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Irrespective of this, the virus undeniably is and will remain a serious threat to the elderly and those with conditions like asthma. It's not obvious to me what measures short of total lockdown will prevent people in these categories from contracting it.

Well if the death rate was well below 1% it would have huge implications, people who are at risk could be isolated - The flu would be of danger to people with asthma or under lying health issues and the elderly - If the death rate was as feared 3% it would be hugely worrying - but we wont know until this anti-body test is actually rolled out and tested on a sample population in April hopefully.

Loafing Oaf

johnfás wrote: »

I think that’s probably correct and there won’t be a lockdown forever. It will be a combination of the anti body test, some form of effective treatment, sufficient beds in the system and a hope that a vaccine is on the way that will lift restrictions and then yes, unfortunately, there will be a continuing underlying level of mortality.

Thebaz is talking about 'resuming normal life' in about a month. Vaccine will still be miles away and unlikely we''' be anywhere near effective treatment. I'm not seeing how the antibody test will be that much of a game changer that you can start lifting restrictions in June and be sure that won't trigger another surge.

johnfás

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Thebaz is talking about 'resuming normal life' in about a month. Vaccine will still be miles away and unlikely we''' be anywhere near effective treatment. I'm not seeing how the antibody test will be that much of a game changer that you can start lifting restrictions in June and be sure that won't trigger another surge.

I think we probably aren’t that far off an effective treatment for severe cases. You’ll expect a lull in the summer and an effective therapeutic treatment may well be available before the autumn. That isn’t to say things won’t be difficult in the Heath service again in the autumn, but the societal restrictions won’t continue.

thebaz

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Thebaz is talking about 'resuming normal life' in about a month. Vaccine will still be miles away and unlikely we''' be anywhere near effective treatment. I'm not seeing how the antibody test will be that much of a game changer that you can start lifting restrictions in June and be sure that won't trigger another surge.

I didnt say resume normal life in a month - I said wait until we get the results of an anti-body test from a sample population - then after examing the results you can assess the situation based on death rate - I dont know what it will be , but if it well under 1% it would certainly change situation - but like most people I dont know - just giving my opinion on a possible outcome.

JP Liz V1

Legalfarmer89 wrote: »

I suppose we will have to look to Korea to see where they are going with their measures as they seem to be having some kind of success against the disease and flattened the curve, Germany and Israel seem to be doing good also. China too seems to have flattened the curve but you just cant compare China to Ireland.

South Korea was testing 10,000 to 20,000 people per day at a time when the U.S. had not reached that level cumulatively. South Korea created 600 testing sites, including drive-thru test centers, where people didn’t need to leave their cars and got results within hours.

Seoul immediately began the testing of asymptomatic people, rather than restricting testing to those with severe conditions or a history of contact with affected regions or people

I think we need to test test test more

I really cannot see when or how this will end without a vaccine

johnfás

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I think we need to test test test more

I really cannot see when or how this will end without a vaccine

It will end before a vaccine because the world can’t function in a shutdown for 18 months. The key before a vaccine is an effective treatment for hospitalised cases so that they don’t need ICU intervention. This is actually progressing at a rapid pace.

Yurt2

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Hong Kong & Singapore also seem to have largely got on top of it andcwith apparently less stringent measures than have been applied in Europe. I'm convinced the Asian countries have some crucial advantage over Europe when it comes to combating this, whether that's climate or genetics, or social organisation or whatever.

HK, Singapore and Korea all got hammered by SARS and Swine Flu, and in Korea's case MERS as well.

They all had invested in response systems and recognised the danger very early on, having been complacent with other epidemics.

I watched a video of the chief Korean virology expert who is leading the response. He basically said that with SARS, they realised that in a future event without a vaccine, they'd be powerless without rapid testing, so the government directed companies to do R&D for flexible rapid roll-out testing kits. He also said despite WHO advice, masks have a positive effect in slowing down spread. Asian countries are more attended to wearing masks because of pollution.

Jinglejangle69

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

igCorcaigh

The article is US focused, but towards the end it outlines scenarios of we can exit from the crisis, globally.

The most likely scenario is also the longest.
I think it will be a game of whack a mile for the next year or two.

Probably posted already.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

igCorcaigh

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

Theoretically possible but highly unlikely.
Well, HIV is one (mostly).

There's a trade off between mortality and transmission. It's not like the virus "wants" to kill the host, which it depends upon.

Same way a drug dealer doesn't want their market to OD on the product. It's just a side effect of the trade.

JoChervil

I think it will fizzle out in mid May the latest.

The two factors: the weather and human immunity.

Allegedly wet particles are heavier in warmer times and people get more resistant in times, when nights gets warmer and when there is lower temperature difference between day and night.

But then we will probably have a hiccup of it in the Autumn...

keepalive213

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

Its called humanity

Jinglejangle69

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Theoretically possible but highly unlikely.
Well, HIV is one (mostly).

There's a trade off between mortality and transmission. It's not like the virus "wants" to kill the host, which it depends upon.

Same way a drug dealer doesn't want their market to OD on the product. It's just a side effect of the trade.

I'm in way over my head here:)

Loafing Oaf

JoChervil wrote: »

I think it will fizzle out in mid May the latest.

The two factors: the weather and human immunity.

Allegedly wet particles are heavier in warmer times and people get more resistant in times, when nights gets warmer and when there is lower temperature difference between day and night.

But then we will probably have a hiccup of it in the Autumn...

Virus seems to be thriving in New Orleans, where afternoon temperatures have been in the high 20s for the last week...

storker

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I'm in way over my head here:)

A virus that makes people a little bit sick will spread faster and stay longer than one which kills its victims quickly. Dead people can't spread the virus.

Look at the common cold...

chicorytip

Legalfarmer89 wrote: »

I am thinking something like this. I just don't think the Country can stay in a lockdown for 6-8 months to totally contain the virus and it doesn't look like a vaccine will be developed by then. The lockdown will probably be four weeks, essentially April. I think that the Country will be back partially during May/June but not everything will be back(i.e. offices will still be encouraged/told to work from home where possible/ social distancing will be enforced/ sporting events will be behind closed doors and not back till probably September/ pubs will probably not be allowed back till August/September and at that there will probably be limits to people in the pubs and I'm not sure that the coming out of the lockdown will be the great big piss up some people envisage that it is gong to be ).

I could be wrong on all of the above however!

I suppose we will have to look to Korea to see where they are going with their measures as they seem to be having some kind of success against the disease and flattened the curve, Germany and Israel seem to be doing good also. China too seems to have flattened the curve but you just cant compare China to Ireland.

Restrictions could be lifted on the basis of areas with least confirmed cases first which, naturally, are the least populous areas of the country. Dublin and surrounding counties last. Limits on distances travelled to remain in place nationwide.