When and how will it end?

deathbomber

expecting positive news regarding treatment over the next few weeks, whispers of a successful new drug from mother Russia, doubt it will be approved ny time soon though

Jinglejangle69

deathbomber wrote: »

expecting positive news regarding treatment over the next few weeks, whispers of a successful new drug from mother Russia, doubt it will be approved ny time soon though

Just hook it up to my veins...

iguana

thebaz wrote: »

Once the anti-body test become readily available - May time, we will understand how many people have in fact been infected with many being assymptomatic.

Not just asymptotic but mild to moderately symptomatic and not able to get a test. There are a lot of people right now reporting symptoms of a lower respiratory tract infection. With 2-3 weeks of chest constriction/pain, difficulty breathing, ongoing burning/tingling in the airways. With or without other flu like symptoms like headaches, muscle aches, sore throat, fatigue and loss of appetite. Sometimes happening in a cluster of contacts. It really is going to be extremely interesting to see the results when and if we can do wide scale antibody testing.

bmm

Until over 60% of the population (herd immunity) have had it we will keep having breakouts . That's why we should continue to test for the virus . There will also be a test for persons who have recovered from the virus and so are immune. I suppose a vaccine will spell the end ultimately . This could be in 2 years time. But we will have learned to live with it by then. Mobile phones will have hand sanitiser pouches attached.

Ardent

Best prediction of the future is to look at the past, i.e., the "Spanish Flu". I think we are looking at a couple of years of multiple waves before this thing burns itself out.

Best case scenario is we develop a vaccine, but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that. It's been 18 years or so since SARS appeared on the scene and no vaccine materialised for that. (Granted, R&D was pretty much shelved after it was contained.)

Worse case scenario is that this thing mutates into something else making it more prolonged or even more deadly.

deathbomber

Ardent wrote: »

Best prediction of the future is to look at the past, i.e., the "Spanish Flu". I think we are looking at a couple of years of multiple waves before this thing burns itself out.

Best case scenario is we develop a vaccine, but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that. It's been 18 years or so since SARS appeared on the scene and no vaccine materialised for that. (Granted, R&D was pretty much shelved after it was contained.)

Worse case scenario is that this thing mutates into something else making it more prolonged or even more deadly.

it has already mutated to nothing significant, also the more it mutates the more likely it grows into a weaker strain. Many of the deaths attributed to Spanish flu have been attributed to malnutrition and poor hygiene due to the war so this is very different.
Vaccine will be ready next year, however with antibody tests and treatments sure to come in the near future, this virus will be history before th year is out and normality should be with us before that/within months

rossie1977

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

Virus with 100% mortality with long incubation and very high r nought is unlikely though.

Even fictional viruses like Captain Trips only had 99,99% mortality meaning some people survived

faceman

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The article is US focused, but towards the end it outlines scenarios of we can exit from the crisis, globally.

The most likely scenario is also the longest.
I think it will be a game of whack a mile for the next year or two.

Probably posted already.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

People need to stop reading these articles. It’s just speculation by a journalist pulling together multiple theories and models. Overall they pain a grim picture as a reality.

faceman

Ardent wrote: »

Best prediction of the future is to look at the past, i.e., the "Spanish Flu". I think we are looking at a couple of years of multiple waves before this thing burns itself out.

Best case scenario is we develop a vaccine, but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that. It's been 18 years or so since SARS appeared on the scene and no vaccine materialised for that. (Granted, R&D was pretty much shelved after it was contained.)

Worse case scenario is that this thing mutates into something else making it more prolonged or even more deadly.

When most virus mutate it’s due to a lack of host, it usually results in a more contagious virus that’s less lethal. Scientists have said already that it’s unlikely that this virus will evolve significantly.

The Spanish flu is a different disease to this which is more akin to pneumonia.

One thing I’m willing to put a ton of money on, scientists and pharma will break records in the development of a vaccine here. We are in unprecedented times so multiple labs are working on it around the world and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an acceleration of normal protocols. (China is already doing this)

There will no doubt be awards and fanfare for the folks to develope a vaccine so I imagine it’s a bit like the equivalent of the space race for the industry

Airyfairy12

Whatever about the virus, news reports showing that Italy is heading into a state of unrest. Looters breaking into supermarkets as people are running out of food and money. Wouldnt be surprised if Italy comes out of this a poverty stricken country, theres even talks among people living there of a revolution. The UK will be next, they took so long to respond, first call of action was to create herd immunity and pretty much kill off the weak. Boris Johnson changed his tune but too little too late. Crazy times.

LoughNeagh2017

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

What a beautiful time that would be, a grotesque little world we exist in

Smaller and smaller waves until there's a vaccine. Each of these waves will stress healthcare systems less so they won't be as fatal.

I reckon when antibody testing is done later this year, most of us will have had it.

snoopboggybog

It's not going to end for a long long time. Once a vaccination is available for over 60's and people with underlying illnesses it will somewhat return to normal but everyone else will be at risk of catching it like normal flu.

Restaurants, Hotels and Bars are going to be hit badly and can't see a lot of them recovering to be honest.

Another recession is looming and I can see many non-chain clothes stores closing down.

I reckon things will get back to normal in June and then the same thing will happen again, people getting infected left, right and center.

Just hopefully China and other countries cop the **** on now regarding the wet markets and every country bans them alltogether.

Stacksofwacks

I reckon it will be 2-3 months for the Virus to reach its peak. There may even be surges in some areas after that. I think it will be late June/July before restrictions will start to be lifted and some normalcy will return. We will still be washing our hands etc into next winter I think.For the economy to recover it will take somewhere between 18 months to as long as 5 years in some sectors. Yep its that serious.

iguana

faceman wrote: »

We are in unprecedented times so multiple labs are working on it around the world and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an acceleration of normal protocols. (China is already doing this)

I fully expect to see this too. Not necessarily rapid distribution across the wider population for whom this is statistically likely to be a mild to moderate illness. But for anyone over 80 with and maybe without an underlying condition. For anyone with a terminal illness and a life expectancy of around 5 years. People who Covid 19 is likely to kill rapidly but who are unlikely to experience longterm consequences of a vaccine that hasn't been fully tested because, realistically, they don't have longterm anyway. It would never happen under normal circumstances but if the choice comes down to keeping our society suspended for long enough to risk it crashing down completely in order to protect vulnerable people with a short life expectancy ahead of them. Or asking them to take their chances with not completely tested vaccine so we can restart normal life asap. I really don't see any way at all that we won't do the latter. Legislation will be drawn up to prevent lawsuits if the vaccine has moderately bad effects.

And I suspect strongly that the vast, vast majority of people we are 'cocooning' would probably rather take their chances with a vaccine that allows them to see their loved ones again. To spend Christmas with their extended family. To attend their grandchildren's weddings and great grandchildren's school concerts. To go back to bingo and community dances and lunches with friends, etc. If we know from antibody testing that we have a reasonable amount of herd immunity, vaccinating the absolute highest risk people will allow us space to do further testing on the vaccine before then rolling it out to people of 60 plus, the obese and those with conditions like hypertension and diabetes, who would be more likely to be warier of any potential negative consequences that might arise.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

There better be the largest scale investigation ever conducted after this to trace the source and absolutely eliminate every possible source going forward. There should be huge repercussions for China and massive sanctions.

derfderf

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

Bird Flu is the most lethal from what I've seen. 60% fatality rate. It has never transferred person to person easily though. Influenza tends to mutate though.
With a death rate like that i would imagine worldwide lockdown pretty early.

joseywhales

Pheonix10 wrote: »

There better be the largest scale investigation ever conducted after this to trace the source and absolutely eliminate every possible source going forward. There should be huge repercussions for China and massive sanctions.

I've never seen a country held responsible for a chance virus mutation before. Its like blaming a church for being struck by lightning, likely to happen at some stage but they have no realistic control of it.

Del Griffith

joseywhales wrote: »

I've never seen a country held responsible for a chance virus mutation before. Its like blaming a church for being struck by lightning, likely to happen at some stage but they have no realistic control of it.

Agreed, these calls are ridiculous and seem to have started in the trump base.

Again swine flu death toll 150 - 500k, USA origin.

derfderf

joseywhales wrote: »

I've never seen a country held responsible for a chance virus mutation before. Its like blaming a church for being struck by lightning, likely to happen at some stage but they have no realistic control of it.

It's not your fault if you get bitten by a zombie, but you're obligated to be completely up front about it with the rest of the group.

derfderf

joseywhales wrote: »

I've never seen a country held responsible for a chance virus mutation before. Its like blaming a church for being struck by lightning, likely to happen at some stage but they have no realistic control of it.

It's not your fault if you get bitten by a zombie, but you're obligated to be completely up front about it with the rest of the group.

fleet_admiral

Pheonix10 wrote: »

When are the pubs even have a chance of reopening...June...July...?

I work in a pub, we are looking at opening the first monday of June (hopefully)

citysights

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Whatever about the virus, news reports showing that Italy is heading into a state of unrest. Looters breaking into supermarkets as people are running out of food and money. Wouldnt be surprised if Italy comes out of this a poverty stricken country, theres even talks among people living there of a revolution. The UK will be next, they took so long to respond, first call of action was to create herd immunity and pretty much kill off the weak. Boris Johnson changed his tune but too little too late. Crazy times.

Just reading about that, looting going on in Southern Italy. Dreadful, some people are not getting social security payments so can’t get food. Luckily we are much better than Italy in that the gov. have ensured people out of work get payments here.

Wouldn’t like to be in Italy right now. Uk surely they must have social security payments in place for people, but seems to be a basket case in terms of how it’s been handling covid so maybe things are not so well organized there at all.

timmy_mallet

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

Humans are the virus that nobody can survive, we will have destroyed the planet before a virus destroys us.

timmy_mallet

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

Humans are the virus that nobody can survive, we will have destroyed the planet before a virus destroys us.

froog

Pheonix10 wrote: »

There better be the largest scale investigation ever conducted after this to trace the source and absolutely eliminate every possible source going forward. There should be huge repercussions for China and massive sanctions.

it's nature. viruses have existed since the beginning of life. there has been pandemics before, many times. and there will be again.

froog

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Only a matter of time before a virus comes that noone can survive.

this pretty much can never happen. herd immunity is developed when approximately 60% of a population is infected. it simply runs out of hosts to infect.

and if a virus is truly deadly it will kill people before they have a chance to spread it. ebola for example.

a "world ender" virus would have to be some kind of highly infectious strain that lays dormant in hosts for a few years, enough to infect the entire world, before finally activating and killing the host. i'm not aware of any such virus or if evolution would favour such a path.

fleet_admiral

fleet_admiral wrote: »

I work in a pub, we are looking at opening the first monday of June (hopefully)

That is going to be some almighty session

0gac3yjefb5sv7

fleet_admiral wrote: »

I work in a pub, we are looking at opening the first monday of June (hopefully)

How did they pick that date or just a guess? I hope it's right!

Loafing Oaf

Deleted User wrote: »

That is going to be some almighty session

End the mother of all lockdowns with the mother of all lock-ins!:P