COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Gael23

Sweet.Science wrote: »

A lot of talk that these vaccines will be rolled out pretty soon. Once approved really. Which should be by November

Which one?

Marhay70

Sweet.Science wrote: »

A lot of talk that these vaccines will be rolled out pretty soon. Once approved really. Which should be by November

Where is this talk?

ddarcy

Gael23 wrote: »

Is there no hope of Oxford being ready this year?

They’ve has a couple SAE’s. So that will require more information on submission. There’s a chance they can submit by end of November, but it will still take a few weeks to review and approve (that’s normal btw).

Assuming nothing more comes up they might get approved by end of year. I’d say January at best and rollout beginning in March/ April. With full rollout by this time next year. Assuming nothing else goes wrong.

Their numbers in the study are well above the normal amounts, so assuming it works, it shouldn’t be too long for approval.

Gael23

Summer 2021 cancelled to then

ddarcy

Gael23 wrote: »

Summer 2021 cancelled to then

The big thing no one is talking about, is what have the HSE and government got in agreement for supply. Knowing the way the incompetent organisations work, even if oxford is approved this year, we won’t have a supply to be worth anything by mid-next year.

Essentially oxford could be approved tomorrow, but we won’t have anything until June. Unfortunately it’s a real possibility.

Hmmzis

ddarcy wrote: »

The big thing no one is talking about, is what have the HSE and government got in agreement for supply. Knowing the way the incompetent organisations work, even if oxford is approved this year, we won’t have a supply to be worth anything by mid-next year.

Essentially oxford could be approved tomorrow, but we won’t have anything until June. Unfortunately it’s a real possibility.

Wouldn't Ireland be at least partially covered by the EU deals? I haven't seen many individual EU countries doing their own deals.

The HSE should for sure be starting to ask around about it, part of the EU deals.


Edit: It looks like at least at the government level there is some sort of movement:

https://www.imt.ie/news/ireland-endorses-common-eu-vaccine-strategy-covid-19-07-09-2020/

Gael23

Hmmzis wrote: »

Wouldn't Ireland be at least partially covered by the EU deals? I haven't seen many individual EU countries doing their own deals.

The HSE should for sure be starting to ask around about it, part of the EU deals.


Edit: It looks like at least at the government level there is some sort of movement:

https://www.imt.ie/news/ireland-endorses-common-eu-vaccine-strategy-covid-19-07-09-2020/

I would have thought we would be included in the EU deal

stephenjmcd

Gael23 wrote: »

I would have thought we would be included in the EU deal

We are.

EU are purchasing vaccines for the bloc to distribute to members states. The UK were asked did they want to be apart of it and refused. They're off doing their own deals

Away With The Fairies

ddarcy wrote: »

They’ve has a couple SAE’s. So that will require more information on submission. There’s a chance they can submit by end of November, but it will still take a few weeks to review and approve (that’s normal btw).

Assuming nothing more comes up they might get approved by end of year. I’d say January at best and rollout beginning in March/ April. With full rollout by this time next year. Assuming nothing else goes wrong.

Their numbers in the study are well above the normal amounts, so assuming it works, it shouldn’t be too long for approval.

Vaccine roll out this time next year? God, it seems like such a long time away and it's so contagious, we will all be infected by a vaccine comes along.

Sconsey

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Vaccine roll out this time next year? God, it seems like such a long time away and it's so contagious, we will all be infected by a vaccine comes along.

Disclaimer: I am probably overly optimistic when it comes to vaccine.

The way I look at it is, as they initially roll out the vaccine to health care workers and the vulnerable, the overall risk nationwide reduces. So if we had the HCW's and vulberable vaccinated by June then the requirement for lockdowns/restrictions reduces. Still have to take precautions but unlikely to need severe lockdowns during the broader rollout.

hmmm

I should say that by posting these updates it doesn't mean I believe it will happen:

"U.S. HEALTH SECRETARY AZAR SAYS MAY HAVE UP TO 100 MLN DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE BY END OF YEAR, ENOUGH TO COVER ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE POPULATIONS"

"US Health Sec. Azar: Expects To Have Enough Vaccine Doses ‘For Every American Who Wants One’ By Mar-Apr 2021 - RTRS"

Sweet.Science

ddarcy wrote: »

They’ve has a couple SAE’s. So that will require more information on submission. There’s a chance they can submit by end of November, but it will still take a few weeks to review and approve (that’s normal btw).

Assuming nothing more comes up they might get approved by end of year. I’d say January at best and rollout beginning in March/ April. With full rollout by this time next year. Assuming nothing else goes wrong.

Their numbers in the study are well above the normal amounts, so assuming it works, it shouldn’t be too long for approval.

They aren't submitting all their data and then it gets reviewed . It's getting reviewed in real time . So it will be a much quicker timeline than you're stating

charlie14

stephenjmcd wrote: »

We are.

EU are purchasing vaccines for the bloc to distribute to members states. The UK were asked did they want to be apart of it and refused. They're off doing their own deals

Most likely dealing with AstraZeneca directly.

It is an Anglo/Swedish company and Sweden announced a month ago they expect to have 6 million doses plus an option to buy 2 mullion more that will allow them to begin vaccinations early next year. They didn`t state which company, but I would imagine it is highly likely AstraZeneca.

hmmm

Interesting interview with Christian Drosten, one of the leading German virologists:
https://www.zeit.de/wissen/2020-10/christian-drosten-coronavirus-infection-winter-virologist

Some excerpts:
"a weakened virus can appear that can spread easily, but which isn't as pathogenic. This happened with the other coronaviruses, but it took decades. But the stability of SARS-CoV-2 also has an advantage: We don’t need to fear that the virus will soon mutate to the point that a vaccine will lose its effect."

" However, data from experiments with primates also suggests that vaccination reduces the viral load in the throat (for example: New England Journal of Medicine: Corbett et al., 2020). So, I doubt that the virus will spread unhindered under the cover of the vaccination."

"That includes telling people that the vaccines may not be perfect. It could be that they don’t provide sufficient protection or that there are side effects that stand in the way of recommending them for younger people, who tend not to fall seriously ill. I think we need to start preparing people now for a vaccine that may not be perfect. The time has now arrived. It would have been premature earlier because the Phase III trials are only just starting."

smurfjed

More news from UAE.

ABU DHABI: A United Arab Emirates company is nearing the end of Phase III clinical trials of a Chinese COVID-19 vaccine and hopes to manufacture it next year, a representative said.
The trial, which began in mid-July, is a partnership between Sinopharm’s China National Biotec Group (CNBG) and Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence and cloud computing company Group 42 (G42).
The vaccine uses an inactivated virus; a well-known technology which has been used against diseases such as influenza and measles. Two doses are given.
It has been administered to more than 31,000 people in the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain and Jordan, G42 Healthcare CEO Ashish Koshy said.
Results analysis and publication will happen in around two months, Koshy said.

hmmm

Don't read this if you're the anxious type. No really, don't.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

"Conversely, it is also important to guard against overly optimistic assessments, such as those from certain governments relating to a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine. Many governments have confidently asserted, without due consideration of the consequences, that a vaccine will abruptly end the pandemic."

ShineOn7

hmmm wrote: »

Don't read this if you're the anxious type. No really, don't.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

"Conversely, it is also important to guard against overly optimistic assessments, such as those from certain governments relating to a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine. Many governments have confidently asserted, without due consideration of the consequences, that a vaccine will abruptly end the pandemic."

What's the short version of that?

"we're still kinda fúcked even with a vaccine" ?

ShineOn7

smurfjed wrote: »

More news from UAE.

Would anyone really take a rushed Chinese vaccine en mass?

scooby77

EU now have over a billion doses of Covid vaccines pre ordered after signing a third deal, this one with Johnson & Johnson. Two previous were with AstraZeneca and Sanofi.
Given EU population of 450 million, bets are well hedged.
Source Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_2_MOLT/idUSKBN26T1P6

JTMan

The Economist claim to have got hold of the NHS vaccine roll out plans as reported here (paywall).

- 7 venues so far identified as Mass Vaccination Centres.
- Venues include Leeds Town Hall, Woking Leisure Centre, a university sports centre in Hull and the Olympic Copper Box Arena. All must be ready by year end at the latest.
- Army and NHS joint responsible.
- Must be ready to vaccinate 75-100% of the population.
- Hub and Spoke model. Hub will supply the vaccine, protective equipment for staff and other supplies. Spoke will have 3 forms. Mass vaccination centres, mobile centres and roving teams (which will go door-to-door visiting care homes and the housebound).
- New legislation likely to allow vets and soldiers give vaccines.

The more I read about UK vaccine preparations the more impressed I get. The UK have made a balls of so many aspects of this pandemic but maybe they will get the vaccine distribution model right. I really hope Ireland are engaged in the same planning with our army and HSE and that we will be ready in the same time-frame.

jackboy

JTMan wrote: »

I really hope Ireland are engaged in the same planning with our army and HSE and that we will be ready in the same time-frame.

They aren’t planning. It’s going to be extremely difficult to get the majority of nurses to take he vaccine first. It will be a sh*tshow.

Dionaibh

hmmm wrote: »

Don't read this if you're the anxious type. No really, don't.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

"Conversely, it is also important to guard against overly optimistic assessments, such as those from certain governments relating to a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine. Many governments have confidently asserted, without due consideration of the consequences, that a vaccine will abruptly end the pandemic."

And other so-called experts have said the opposite. This is the same Lancet that published a bogus study on hydroxychloroquine that it had to retract. I made the point in another thread that a lot of people enjoy living through a so-called pandemic. They never want it to end. It's disgusting to hear normal life being described as the "old normal".

By the way, I'm not shooting the messenger. I'm just making the point that every day you get one scientist saying one thing, and a different scientist saying the opposite. I don't listen to any of them.

hmmm

Dionaibh wrote: »

And other so-called experts have said the opposite. This is the same Lancet that published a bogus study on hydroxychloroquine that it had to retract. I made the point in another thread that a lot of people enjoy living through a so-called pandemic. They never want it to end. It's disgusting to hear normal life being described as the "old normal".

I saw someone describe it as an opinion piece written by High IQ but Low EQ people.

I understand where they are coming from. I think they have no idea of how unrealistic what is is they are asking for.

This has an impact on vaccine politics. If vaccine 1 has 50% effectiveness, and can be delivered immediately, and vaccine 2 has 80% effectiveness and will arrive in January - go with vaccine 2 for your population (in my opinion). Once people get that jab, social distancing is over (perhaps masks will remain).

Dionaibh

hmmm wrote: »

I saw someone describe it as an opinion piece written by High IQ but Low EQ people.

I understand where they are coming from. I think they have no idea of how unrealistic what is is they are asking for.

This has an impact on vaccine politics. If vaccine 1 has 50% effectiveness, and can be delivered immediately, and vaccine 2 has 80% effectiveness and will arrive in January - go with vaccine 2 for your population (in my opinion). Once people get that jab, social distancing is over (perhaps masks will remain).

I often wonder do they just write those kinds of articles to depress people. I don't feel dispirited after reading it because, as I said, scientists and so-called experts have been saying different things since all of this began, so I don't take much notice of what most of them say.

The goalposts have been shifted numerous times since this began, so I'd expect they'll try to come up with a reason for the continuing need for masks.

Hmmzis

hmmm wrote: »

Don't read this if you're the anxious type. No really, don't.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

"Conversely, it is also important to guard against overly optimistic assessments, such as those from certain governments relating to a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine. Many governments have confidently asserted, without due consideration of the consequences, that a vaccine will abruptly end the pandemic."

It's an intersting opinion piece, very idealistic, utopian even. From a practical and realistic point of view, what they are postulating is not workable. Some aspects of the current guidelines would be great to maintain (hygiene, avoid people when sick or at least wear a mask, more focus on better nutrition and health in general).

I haven't checked the author's fields of work but I find it odd that they are completelly omitting to mention, let alone discuss, the effect that anamnestic responses would have in the 3rd vaccine scenario. Innovio's NHP challenge paper illustrates that well. It's a poorly immunogenic vaccine candidate, all the monkeys got infected, but the AB and T cell responses were quick and to much higher titers than after the immunisation regime. The infection served as a booster (albeit somewhat unpleasant I imagine). If the vaccie primes the immune system to react in the correct (non-pathogenic) way, the exposures should lead to either an anamnestic response or no respone at all if the nAB titers and T cell counts ar still at fully protective levels for the challenge dose. In any case, the future exposures or vaccine boosters can and will reduce transmission significantly.

Hego Damask

Dionaibh wrote: »

And other so-called experts have said the opposite. This is the same Lancet that published a bogus study on hydroxychloroquine that it had to retract. I made the point in another thread that a lot of people enjoy living through a so-called pandemic. They never want it to end. It's disgusting to hear normal life being described as the "old normal".

By the way, I'm not shooting the messenger. I'm just making the point that every day you get one scientist saying one thing, and a different scientist saying the opposite. I don't listen to any of them.

Exactly, you can see the person typing it and loving every second of it, probably an anti social dork that never got the shift when he was a young fella, so the thought of discos and bars being a thing of the past excites him ...

Dionaibh

Hego Damask wrote: »

Exactly, you can see the person typing it and loving every second of it, probably an anti social dork that never got the shift when he was a young fella, so the thought of discos and bars being a thing of the past excites him ...

Yep. I wonder what it's like outside of the West. I wonder do they have doom merchants similar to Fauci outside of the West. It never ceases to amaze me how different life is outside of the West. They way people think, talk, behave, the culture. It's always Western scientists we hear going on about new normal and how life will never be the same again. And they all come out with different statements depending on the day and the weather.

Hego Damask

Dionaibh wrote: »

Yep. I wonder what it's like outside of the West. I wonder do they have doom merchants similar to Fauci outside of the West. It never ceases to amaze me how different life is outside of the West. They way people think, talk, behave, the culture. It's always Western scientists we hear going on about new normal and how life will never be the same again. And they all come out with different statements depending on the day and the weather.

Social media has a big part to play in all this hysteria too, I am convinced that if this had happened in 2000 we would just have had a few bottles of soap at shops/bars/cinemas etc and advised to social distance ...

ShineOn7

Hego Damask wrote: »

Social media has a big part to play in all this hysteria too, I am convinced that if this had happened in 2000 we would just have had a few bottles of soap at shops/bars/cinemas etc and advised to social distance ...

Interesting perspective

I don't think it would be that relaxed, but equally we wouldn't be getting the daily media bombardment we're getting now

The entire business model has changed for TV and radio in the last 10 years. They're competing furiously for eyeballs with social media and to do that they've gone lowest common denominator

Or, in the case of RTE, lowest of the lowest common denominator and hysteria

Hego Damask

Another thing, imagine if the 1st wave was like this one - as in lots of cases but much less death rate - would we be facing these restrictions now ?

I very much doubt it, it seems these restrictions are because they are terrified it will be as bad as it was back in March/April ... if the low death rate continues hopefully they can cop on about the ridicolous restrictions and open things up again, as the vaccine is not the magic cure for this.